After the turmoil in the financial market on March 7, the day after the congressional hearing, Powell seemed to realize that he had sent a hawkish signal to the market.
At present, no decision has been made on the March interest rate meeting.He believes that more data will be crucial when evaluating interest rate policy, and job vacancies, PPI and employment reports are all Fed observation data.
As shown in the above figure, US stocks did not show continuous decline, with Nasdaq and S&P closing slightly higher, while Dow Jones closing slightly lower. In Asia and Europe today, the US dollar index fell,Non-US currencies also rebounded with the trend, and gold and silver as a whole fluctuated at a low level.
According to the report released by ADP Research Institute of the United States, on the one hand, the employment of ADP in the United States increased by 242,000 in February, with an expected 200,000, compared with the previous value of 106,000, and the data in January was revised to increase by 119,000.
On the other hand, the salary growth of job-hoppers also slowed down, from 14.9% to 14.3%.
The above data supports the fact that the US labor market is strong, which is beneficial for the Federal Reserve to continue to raise interest rates, which is bad data for gold and silver in itself. However, everyone will find that the trend of gold and silver began to resist falling. Obviously, Powell's appeasement played a role. The market turned its focus to economic data in the next step,That is, the non-farm payrolls report to be released tomorrow night.
I once wrote in the previous article "0227: The US dollar returned to the carbine market, and the non-US rebound started! "In fact, several important time nodes of the resumption of the US dollar comeback are consistent with the adjustment rhythm of gold since the high point of US $1959/oz on February 2.
We can't completely ignore the bullish factors in the market just because we hold a short positon of gold and silver. For example,After setting a record for net gold purchases last year, central banks around the world have not diminished their enthusiasm and are still buying gold very actively.
According to the latest data compiled by the World Gold Council, in January this year,The net gold reserves of global central banks increased by 77 tons, a sharp increase of 192% compared with last December.More than 20-60 tons of continuous net purchases in the past 10 months.
Data show that the total amount of gold purchased by the central bank in 2022 is 1,136 tons,It was the highest net purchase since records began in 1950 and broke the record for decoupling the dollar from gold in 1971It is also the 13th consecutive net purchase of gold by global central banks.
According to the World Gold Council, there are two main driving factors for central banks to buy gold: one is the safe haven role of gold in times of crisis, and the other is the role of gold as a long-term value storage means (against inflation).
Therefore,In a year of high geopolitical uncertainty and rampant inflation, it is not surprising that central banks have chosen to accelerate their holdings of gold.
For example, Turkey's central bank, the largest gold buyer in 2022 and January this year, bought 23 tons of gold again in January, and its total holding is 565 tons at present. I can't help it. Domestic inflation has soared to 85%, while the Turkish lira has depreciated by nearly 30%.
The country worthy of our attention is actually a certain country in the East. Well, you guessed wrong. I am not talking about rabbits, but Singapore.
In January 2023, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), the central bank of Singapore, bought 44.6 tons of gold (1,434,600 ounces) again, thus increasing its gold holdings from 153.8 tons to 198.4 tons, exceeding China's increased gold holdings (39.8 tons) in January and February.
In percentage terms, Singapore's gold reserves have increased by 29% in just one month, making it the second largest gold purchase in Singapore's history. The only larger gold purchase was the first purchase of 100 tons of gold from South Africa in 1968.
Central banks around the world sell US debt and buy gold collectively, which is equivalent to the collective tacit understanding of de-dollarization.
Just because of Singapore's special geographical location. What's the significance of this operation in Poxian County? I can't say any more...
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