The important time window this week is9 and 10,Because we may see the concrete results of the mid-term elections on the 9th, and we will see the latest inflation data in the United States on the 10th.
Why is it possible?
According to the U.S. Constitution, the U.S. presidential election is held every four years.Congressional elections are held every two years.One congressional election coincides with the quadrennial presidential election, while the other is held between presidential terms.Congressional elections held between presidential terms are "mid-term elections".
This means that this time, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be re-elected, and 35 seats will be re-elected for 100 seats in the Senate. In addition, 36 States will hold governor elections and 46 States will hold state legislature elections.
What is the current election situation of the Senate and House of Representatives?
A: The probability that Democrats will continue to control the House of Representatives is about 10%, and the probability that Republicans will control the House of Representatives is about 90%; The probability of Democrats continuing to control the Senate is about 30%, and the probability of Republicans controlling the Senate is about 70%.
When will the election result be determined?
The voting results can be known as soon as November 9th, but with mail-in voting and potential runoff elections, such as the runoff election in Georgia on December 6th, the results will largely determine the ownership of the Senate.
If the swing state can't produce results, then the results will have to wait until December 6th, which is why it is possible as mentioned above. This time, the focus of the market is not the House of Representatives, but the Senate. After all, there are still some suspense here, and the other side is almost certain.
What is the impact on asset prices?
If the ruling party loses one or two houses, it will be negative for US stocks in the short term and have no significant impact on US debt; In the medium and long term, compared with the period of controlling both houses, US stocks and gold performed weaker, the US dollar index performed stronger, and the US bond yield declined more.
To put it simply,That is, the mid-term elections will have a great impact on the short-term US stocks, but it will not have a very obvious impact on the trend of precious metals. The inflation data to be released on the 10th is the real window of precious metals, and the results of the mid-term elections on the 9th will only have an impact on the stock market.
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Comments
whether it's temporary or long term effect
we won't know