I don't think it is necessary to emphasize the prospect of the medium-term trend of the market. From the short-term trend outlook, I mean the period from mid-December to the end of the month before New Year's Day. Whether there is still a red envelope market in the market, whether the level is large or not, the main external factor isTonight's Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.It's quite simple,If tonight's Fed interest rate meeting is the result of a dovish interest rate cut, then we will usher in a big red envelope market; If tonight's Fed interest rate meeting is the result of hawkish interest rate cuts, then we will have a market, but it is expected to be structural, just like the shocks you saw in the past November-December.So, how do you determine whether it is a pigeon or an eag

Today, we are specially writing an article for Baiyin. In fact, our domestic stocks are the popular varieties, gold belongs to the niche, and silver belongs to the niche within the niche, so you have been watching me write articles, talking more about gold than silver.But the protagonist of today's article is silver.PicturesLet's look at the first picture first, this is an overlay chart of the trend of gold and silver over the past two decades. The red line is the price of gold and the yellow line is the price of silver.Judging from the historical limit values in the past few periods, the limit value and volatility of silver should be greater than those of gold, especially in the final peak acceleration stage.Therefore, when the price of gold broke through $2,700/oz, hitting a record high

Firstly,On Wednesday, July 3, the US ADP research institute released a report showing that the number of ADP employment in the United States increased by 150,000 in June, significantly lower than the expected 165,000, and a slight decline from the previous value of 152,000.This is the third consecutive month that ADP employment has declined and the lowest level in four months.PicturesSecond,Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Wednesday showed that the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time in the week of June 29 in the United States was 238,000, exceeding market expectations of 235,000.The highest since January this year.PicturesAt the same time, data from the U.S. Department of Labor also showed that the number of people continuing to apply for u

Overnight, the much-anticipated Federal Reserve's June interest rate meeting debuted. The Federal Reserve announced in the early hours of June 13, 2024, Beijing time that it would continue to maintain the target range for Federal Funds rate between 5.25% and 5.50%.This is the seventh consecutive time rates have been kept unchanged since September last year.The Fed's decision was in line with market expectations.Since March 2022, the Federal Reserve has conducted 11 rate hike, ranging from 25 basis points at the beginning to 50 basis points later, and 75 basis points for 4 consecutive times. After the subsequent rate hike gradually slowed down, so far rate hike has been suspended 7 times in a row, choosing to stay on hold. The market generally expects the Fed's next move to cut interest rat

At 20:30 Beijing time on Thursday, March 14th, the US Department of Labor released the PPI data for February, which exceeded expectations in terms of year-on-year, month-on-month and core PPI year-on-year data. Relaying the previous CPI data, it further continued to imply the stubbornness of inflation.Data show that the PPI of the United States warmed up beyond expectations in February, rising by 1.6% year-on-year, and the previous value was 1.2%.Far exceeding the expected 0.9%; PPI accelerated by 0.6% month-on-month,It is twice the expected value，The previous value is 0.3%.PictureThe core PPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 2% year-on-year, which was the same as the previous value.Exceeding expectations by 1.9%;The core PPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, which was less than th

According to CME "Federal Reserve Observation", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in March is 97.5%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 2.5%. By May, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 82.2%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 17.4%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 0.4%.PictureAs can be seen from the above figure, the current price of the futures market has expected that the Fed will stay put in March and May, and the time node when it is more likely to cut interest rates will be postponed until June this year,It is basically consistent with the expectations that the Fed wanted to guide before.On February 28th, at 21:30

US President Biden flew to the Middle East in a hurry, but still failed to prevent the tragedy from happening.On the 17th, local time, the "Ahli Arab Hospital" (also known as Baptist Hospital) in Gaza City, Gaza Strip was attacked by air, killing at least 500 Palestinians. Jordanian Foreign Minister Safadi announced in the early morning of 18th that he would cancel the quadripartite summit with the United States, Egypt and Palestine.At the meeting in Jeddah, Iran's foreign minister stressed the need to sanction Israel, impose an oil embargo and withdraw its ambassador.Affected by this, the risk aversion warmed up across the board. The price of spot gold once climbed to $1,962/oz, and WTI crude oil once surged to $88.57/barrel. At present, both of them have declined.Of course, due to the fe

At about 21:00 Beijing time, WTI crude oil price suddenly soared, with an increase of more than 1.35% within a few minutes, while Brent crude oil hit the $90/barrel mark for the first time since November last year. Affected by this, some domestic futures varieties continued to rise after opening at night, with the main contracts of feed oil and low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) rising by over 2% and SC crude oil rising by nearly 2%.PictureSaudis announced that it would extend the voluntary production reduction of 1 million barrels per day for three months.Russia announced that it will continue to voluntarily reduce the oil supply by 300,000 barrels per day until the end of December 2023.In addition, Saudi Arabia also indicated that it will review the voluntary production reduction decision every mo

Fitch Ratings, an international rating agency, downgraded the Long-Term Rating from "AAA" to "AA +", and its outlook changed from negative to stable. The reason is that the fiscal situation is expected to deteriorate in the next three years, and the government debt burden is high and increasing.PictureIn response, US Treasury Secretary Yellen immediately refuted it as "arbitrary and out of date".Former US Treasury Secretary Summers said: "There is no doubt about the solvency of the United States."The White House then issued a special statement saying, "At a time when President Biden achieved the strongest recovery of any major economy in the world,Downgrading the U.S. is Contrary to reality. "Indeed, if you just look at the small non-agricultural ADP data released tonight, you really have

According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC),Hedge funds became net sellers of dollars last week for the first time since March, which means that the market has started voting with real money .This is why I want to remind you earlier that commodities should transition from rebound to reversal, and one of the main factors contributing to the rebound of Big A share is the break of the US Dollar Index.PictureThe US Dollar Index fell 2.24% last week, with the dollar losing the most against the Swedish kronor, Swiss franc and Japanese yen. The contribution of the euro, which has the highest weight, to the US Dollar Index's depreciation is basically close to its weight.In Europe, the reason for the higher euro/US dollar is the poor monetary policy expectations between the two cen

At 20:30 Beijing time, the data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the year-on-year increase of CPI in June in the United States continued to fall from 4% in May to 3%, which was lower than expected by 3.1%.It declined for the 12th consecutive month and was the lowest since March 2021;CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, higher than the previous value of 0.1%, but lower than the expected 0.3%.PictureSimultaneously, the core CPI-excluding food and energy-which economists believe is a better measure of potential inflation-rose 4.8% year-on-year, which was lower than the expected 5% and the previous value of 5.3%.It is the lowest since October 2021, but it is still far higher than the target of the Federal Reserve; The core CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, which was also lo

before the interest rate meeting here, there were four combinations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June:First, rate hike 25 basis points + doves press conference;Second, rate hike 25 basis points + hawkish press conference;Third, stay put + doves press conference;Fourth, stay put + hawkish press conference.Obviously, if the Fed chooses 3, then precious metals will soar, and if it chooses 2, then precious metals will plummet. Both of them are actually small probabilities, and the final cash should be 1 and 4, while I firmly believes that it is 4,That is, before the interest rate meeting, bulls have an advantage, but the press conference is likely to be hawkish and market will dive.It's a pity that the volatility of gold price is limited in the end, and it didn't reach aro

Let me tell you a story first. Once, Pete and Tony traveled in Siberian forest and came across a bear. So Tony quickly took out his running shoes and put them on, ready to run away. Pete was puzzled. "Can you run past a bear?"Tony said as he ran. "I can only run past you."Let's look at a set of data in Europe todayEurozone manufacturing PMI for May was 44.6, falling short of the expected 46, compared with 45.8,It hit a 36-month low.PictureThe initial PMI of service industry in the euro zone in May was 55.9, which was higher than the expected value of 55.5 and lower than the previous value of 56.2.It is a new low in the past two months;The initial comprehensive PMI of the euro zone in May was 53.3, which was lower than the expected 53.5 and the previous value of 54.1.It is the lowest in the

At 20:30 on May 10th, Beijing time, the United States released inflation data for March.According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics,In April, the CPI of the United States increased by 4.9% year-on-year, falling for the tenth consecutive time, the smallest year-on-year increase since April 2021, expected 5%, previous value 5%; CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month, with an expected value of 0.4% and a previous value of 0.1%.PictureThe core CPI excluding energy and food slowed down slightly from last month, up 5.5% year-on-year, which was the same as expected and the previous value was 5.6%; It increased by 0.4% month-on-month, expected to be 0.4%, and the previous value was 0.4%.In addition, the Federal Reserve loves "super core inflation", and the CPI of core services except housing slowed