According to the forecast of 23 large investment banks, the increase of non-farm payrolls in the United States is expected to be between 150,000 and 240,000, the unemployment rate is expected to be between 3.6% and 3.9%, and the average hourly wage is expected to increase at an annual rate of 4.3%-4.4%.The final data showed that the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 336,000 in September, the largest increase since the beginning of this year.Far exceeding the expected 170,000, the value was 187,000 in early August.What is even more exaggerated is that the employment data of the previous two months has also been greatly revised upwards: the number of new people in August was revised up by 40,000 to 227,000; The number of new people in July was greatly revised from
许亚鑫Certificated Individuals
Tiger Certification: 泓泽资本创始合伙人及首席策略师，匠鑫学院院长，新华社特约评论员
19Follow
22601Followers
1Topic
0Badge
What does a stronger than expected non-farm Payrolls mean for the market?
What does a stronger than expected non-farm Payrolls mean for the market?
The minutes of the meeting discussed the reduction of the table, the market immediately knelt down!
The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its December meeting, which containedNot only does it imply that the time node for the first interest rate hike in 2022 may be advanced, but even more importantly, the "shrinking table" may come faster. In fact, on December 18, 2021, Federal Reserve Governor Waller released the signal of raising interest rates ahead of schedule in March and then shrinking the table (around June at the earliest), but the market didn't take it seriously at that time. According to the minutes of the meeting, participants believe that the current economic outlook of the United States is stronger than expected, and compared with the last time when monetary policy normalization began, inflation is higher and the labor market is tighter. They also note that the Fed's b
The minutes of the meeting discussed the reduction of the table, the market immediately knelt down!
De-dollarization Has Begun,Will Dollar colllapse further? CPI data Has told you the anwser
On April 12, the US Department of Labor released data showing that the monthly rate of CPI in March increased by 0.1%, which was lower than the expected growth of 0.2% and the previous value increased by 0.4%; The annual rate of growth was 5%, which was lower than the expected growth of 5.2%, and the previous value increased by 6.00%; The core CPI grew at an annual rate of 5.6%, which was in line with expectations, and the previous value increased by 5.5%.PictureAccording to the U.S. Department of Labor,The housing index remains the biggest contributor to the monthly growth of all projects. This completely offset the decline in the energy index.PictureThe energy index fell by 3.5% during the month, as all major energy component indexes declined.PictureI believes that,Inflation in March was
De-dollarization Has Begun,Will Dollar colllapse further? CPI data Has told you the anwser
what happened to gold price at Non-Farm Payrolls Night, WHY did it Plummet so much?
At 20:00 on May 5, Beijing time, the US Department of Labor released the April non-agricultural employment report, which was also the first non-farm report after the Federal Reserve decided to rate hike by 25 basis points in May.Before the data was released, the futures market expected the probability that the Fed would keep interest rates unchanged in June to be 99.1%.According to the data,In April, 253,000 new non-farm jobs were created in the United States, much higher than the expected 185,000, setting a record of exceeding expectations for the 12th consecutive month.PictureMeanwhile, the unemployment rate in April was 3.4%, which was lower than the previous value of 3.5% and the expected 3.6%.It hit a 53-year low set in January this year again.In addition, wage growth continued to acc
what happened to gold price at Non-Farm Payrolls Night, WHY did it Plummet so much?
Fed and Market Expectations Diverge,What Can We Expect From It?
Overnight, the Conference Board released a consumer confidence index of 104.2 for March, which was higher than expected and higher than the previous value of 103.4. Meanwhile, the Richmond manufacturing index was better than expected in March.PictureI believes that,In the stormy March of Silicon Valley banks and signature banks, consumer confidence was still stronger than expected and previous values, which shows that some institutions really took pains.After the banking thunder crisis in the United States, the overall financial situation has relaxed. As shown in the following figure, the green line is the trend of the S&P 500 index and the black line is the Goldman Sachs American Financial Conditions Index, which show a mirror symmetrical trend.The continuous rebound of US stocks alwa
Fed and Market Expectations Diverge,What Can We Expect From It?
Central Banks Continue Gold Buying Spree，What Can We Expect From It？
After the turmoil in the financial market on March 7, the day after the congressional hearing, Powell seemed to realize that he had sent a hawkish signal to the market.At present, no decision has been made on the March interest rate meeting.He believes that more data will be crucial when evaluating interest rate policy, and job vacancies, PPI and employment reports are all Fed observation data.As shown in the above figure, US stocks did not show continuous decline, with Nasdaq and S&P closing slightly higher, while Dow Jones closing slightly lower. In Asia and Europe today, the US dollar index fell,Non-US currencies also rebounded with the trend, and gold and silver as a whole fluctuated at a low level.According to the report released by ADP Research Institute of the United States, o
Central Banks Continue Gold Buying Spree，What Can We Expect From It？
The fire of risk burns to Europe, and the gold soared to a new high and the oil plunged in a sudden.
The current financial market has two main lines: First, inflation in the United States; Second, the risk aversion caused by the bankruptcy crisis of Silicon Valley banks.Overnight,US CPI and core CPI slowed down as scheduled in February.Housing cost is the biggest single factor driving the rise of CPI in the United States, accounting for 70%. In February, the year-on-year growth of rent CPI still reached a new high in 40 years, with an increase of 8.7% over last year. With official rent data often lagging behind, industry data show that rent growth has slowed significantly.This means that the peak of rent inflation is coming soon.Tonight, the unexpectedly sharp drop in PPI data in February in the United States encouraged market sentiment. The core PPI excluding food, energy and trade incr
The fire of risk burns to Europe, and the gold soared to a new high and the oil plunged in a sudden.
Is Gold in the Beginning of a Historic Short Squeeze?
With the publication of comments from two important Fed directors overnight, the market speculation that the Fed will cut interest rates in 2024 is more intense.First,Governor Waller, one of the Fed's toughest officials, said that the policy is in place to return the inflation rate to the Fed's target of 2%, indicating that policy makers may not need to rate hike again.Second,Bowman, another Fed governor, said she is still willing to support rate hike if inflation stagnates, but did not express her support for next month's rate hike.It should be said that the speeches of the above-mentioned two directors with permanent voting rights are dovish and hawkish, and the market directly interprets them as all dovish,That is to say, the Federal Reserve has recognized the cowardice and can't bear i
Is Gold in the Beginning of a Historic Short Squeeze?
Be prepared for a deep economic recession,What can we retail investors do about it?
At 21:30 Beijing time, according to the US Department of Commerce, the annualized real GDP of the United States in the third quarter was 3.2%, the revised data was 2.9%, and the initial data was 2.6%.This data is very interesting. The initial data is 2.6%, the revised data has risen to 2.9%, and the final data has risen to 3.2%. Is there a arithmetic progression directly? !I said in the live broadcast course overnight that once the data is good, it is very likely that the US dollar index will rise in the short term, and then the situation of non-US decline, US stocks smashing and precious metals under pressure will begin to appear.Since real GDP shrank in the first and second quarters, if the performance in the third quarter is still poor, you can imagine how to refute the so-called tec
Be prepared for a deep economic recession,What can we retail investors do about it?
No one can escape this upcoming crisis!
I wonder if you still remember the trend of US stocks from early June to mid-June this year. At that time, the market was very scared about the Fed's accelerated interest rate hike. I mentioned above "0614: The expectation of radical interest rate hike soared, and the market panic spread! "When it comes to-- Before the end of September this year, the Fed needs to raise interest rates by 175 basis points, including 75 basis points in June this week (see the chart, that is, overnight expectations soared), 50 basis points in July and 50 basis points in September. The trigger behind all this, of course, was the higher-than-expected and previous CPI data released last Friday, and the subsequent record low of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index. In fact, we set the time node bac
No one can escape this upcoming crisis!
Go to Tiger App to see more news