According to the forecast of 23 large investment banks, the increase of non-farm payrolls in the United States is expected to be between 150,000 and 240,000, the unemployment rate is expected to be between 3.6% and 3.9%, and the average hourly wage is expected to increase at an annual rate of 4.3%-4.4%.The final data showed that the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 336,000 in September, the largest increase since the beginning of this year.Far exceeding the expected 170,000, the value was 187,000 in early August.What is even more exaggerated is that the employment data of the previous two months has also been greatly revised upwards: the number of new people in August was revised up by 40,000 to 227,000; The number of new people in July was greatly revised from
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What does a stronger than expected non-farm Payrolls mean for the market?
What does a stronger than expected non-farm Payrolls mean for the market?
The minutes of the meeting discussed the reduction of the table, the market immediately knelt down!
The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its December meeting, which containedNot only does it imply that the time node for the first interest rate hike in 2022 may be advanced, but even more importantly, the "shrinking table" may come faster. In fact, on December 18, 2021, Federal Reserve Governor Waller released the signal of raising interest rates ahead of schedule in March and then shrinking the table (around June at the earliest), but the market didn't take it seriously at that time. According to the minutes of the meeting, participants believe that the current economic outlook of the United States is stronger than expected, and compared with the last time when monetary policy normalization began, inflation is higher and the labor market is tighter. They also note that the Fed's b
The minutes of the meeting discussed the reduction of the table, the market immediately knelt down!
De-dollarization Has Begun,Will Dollar colllapse further? CPI data Has told you the anwser
On April 12, the US Department of Labor released data showing that the monthly rate of CPI in March increased by 0.1%, which was lower than the expected growth of 0.2% and the previous value increased by 0.4%; The annual rate of growth was 5%, which was lower than the expected growth of 5.2%, and the previous value increased by 6.00%; The core CPI grew at an annual rate of 5.6%, which was in line with expectations, and the previous value increased by 5.5%.PictureAccording to the U.S. Department of Labor,The housing index remains the biggest contributor to the monthly growth of all projects. This completely offset the decline in the energy index.PictureThe energy index fell by 3.5% during the month, as all major energy component indexes declined.PictureI believes that,Inflation in March was
De-dollarization Has Begun,Will Dollar colllapse further? CPI data Has told you the anwser
what happened to gold price at Non-Farm Payrolls Night, WHY did it Plummet so much?
At 20:00 on May 5, Beijing time, the US Department of Labor released the April non-agricultural employment report, which was also the first non-farm report after the Federal Reserve decided to rate hike by 25 basis points in May.Before the data was released, the futures market expected the probability that the Fed would keep interest rates unchanged in June to be 99.1%.According to the data,In April, 253,000 new non-farm jobs were created in the United States, much higher than the expected 185,000, setting a record of exceeding expectations for the 12th consecutive month.PictureMeanwhile, the unemployment rate in April was 3.4%, which was lower than the previous value of 3.5% and the expected 3.6%.It hit a 53-year low set in January this year again.In addition, wage growth continued to acc
what happened to gold price at Non-Farm Payrolls Night, WHY did it Plummet so much?
Fed and Market Expectations Diverge,What Can We Expect From It?
Overnight, the Conference Board released a consumer confidence index of 104.2 for March, which was higher than expected and higher than the previous value of 103.4. Meanwhile, the Richmond manufacturing index was better than expected in March.PictureI believes that,In the stormy March of Silicon Valley banks and signature banks, consumer confidence was still stronger than expected and previous values, which shows that some institutions really took pains.After the banking thunder crisis in the United States, the overall financial situation has relaxed. As shown in the following figure, the green line is the trend of the S&P 500 index and the black line is the Goldman Sachs American Financial Conditions Index, which show a mirror symmetrical trend.The continuous rebound of US stocks alwa
Fed and Market Expectations Diverge,What Can We Expect From It?
Central Banks Continue Gold Buying Spree，What Can We Expect From It？
After the turmoil in the financial market on March 7, the day after the congressional hearing, Powell seemed to realize that he had sent a hawkish signal to the market.At present, no decision has been made on the March interest rate meeting.He believes that more data will be crucial when evaluating interest rate policy, and job vacancies, PPI and employment reports are all Fed observation data.As shown in the above figure, US stocks did not show continuous decline, with Nasdaq and S&P closing slightly higher, while Dow Jones closing slightly lower. In Asia and Europe today, the US dollar index fell,Non-US currencies also rebounded with the trend, and gold and silver as a whole fluctuated at a low level.According to the report released by ADP Research Institute of the United States, o
Central Banks Continue Gold Buying Spree，What Can We Expect From It？
The fire of risk burns to Europe, and the gold soared to a new high and the oil plunged in a sudden.
The current financial market has two main lines: First, inflation in the United States; Second, the risk aversion caused by the bankruptcy crisis of Silicon Valley banks.Overnight,US CPI and core CPI slowed down as scheduled in February.Housing cost is the biggest single factor driving the rise of CPI in the United States, accounting for 70%. In February, the year-on-year growth of rent CPI still reached a new high in 40 years, with an increase of 8.7% over last year. With official rent data often lagging behind, industry data show that rent growth has slowed significantly.This means that the peak of rent inflation is coming soon.Tonight, the unexpectedly sharp drop in PPI data in February in the United States encouraged market sentiment. The core PPI excluding food, energy and trade incr
The fire of risk burns to Europe, and the gold soared to a new high and the oil plunged in a sudden.
Is Gold in the Beginning of a Historic Short Squeeze?
With the publication of comments from two important Fed directors overnight, the market speculation that the Fed will cut interest rates in 2024 is more intense.First,Governor Waller, one of the Fed's toughest officials, said that the policy is in place to return the inflation rate to the Fed's target of 2%, indicating that policy makers may not need to rate hike again.Second,Bowman, another Fed governor, said she is still willing to support rate hike if inflation stagnates, but did not express her support for next month's rate hike.It should be said that the speeches of the above-mentioned two directors with permanent voting rights are dovish and hawkish, and the market directly interprets them as all dovish,That is to say, the Federal Reserve has recognized the cowardice and can't bear i
Is Gold in the Beginning of a Historic Short Squeeze?
Be prepared for a deep economic recession,What can we retail investors do about it?
At 21:30 Beijing time, according to the US Department of Commerce, the annualized real GDP of the United States in the third quarter was 3.2%, the revised data was 2.9%, and the initial data was 2.6%.This data is very interesting. The initial data is 2.6%, the revised data has risen to 2.9%, and the final data has risen to 3.2%. Is there a arithmetic progression directly? !I said in the live broadcast course overnight that once the data is good, it is very likely that the US dollar index will rise in the short term, and then the situation of non-US decline, US stocks smashing and precious metals under pressure will begin to appear.Since real GDP shrank in the first and second quarters, if the performance in the third quarter is still poor, you can imagine how to refute the so-called tec
Be prepared for a deep economic recession,What can we retail investors do about it?
No one can escape this upcoming crisis!
I wonder if you still remember the trend of US stocks from early June to mid-June this year. At that time, the market was very scared about the Fed's accelerated interest rate hike. I mentioned above "0614: The expectation of radical interest rate hike soared, and the market panic spread! "When it comes to-- Before the end of September this year, the Fed needs to raise interest rates by 175 basis points, including 75 basis points in June this week (see the chart, that is, overnight expectations soared), 50 basis points in July and 50 basis points in September. The trigger behind all this, of course, was the higher-than-expected and previous CPI data released last Friday, and the subsequent record low of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index. In fact, we set the time node bac
No one can escape this upcoming crisis!
After the Fed's interest rate meeting in December, the script of gold will go in reverse,
I wrote in the previous article "1213: Inflation accelerates and falls, "It is mentioned that the data in November, whether it is month-on-month, year-on-year, or year-on-year data of core CPI, are all lower than expected, which means that the high inflationary pressure faced by the United States has been confirmed to have eased.From the perspective of subdivision projects, the main drivers of inflation, such as gasoline and used cars, have all dropped sharply.The volatile food price increased by 0.5% in November, slightly lower than the previous value of 0.6%; Energy prices fell by 1.6% month-on-month, reversing the 1.8% increase last month, among which gasoline prices fell by 2.0% month-on-month, which was lower than the previous increase of 4%.Interestingly, although US stocks closed
After the Fed's interest rate meeting in December, the script of gold will go in reverse,
Two More Rate Hikes ahead this year？What Does it mean For Gold?
before the interest rate meeting here, there were four combinations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June:First, rate hike 25 basis points + doves press conference;Second, rate hike 25 basis points + hawkish press conference;Third, stay put + doves press conference;Fourth, stay put + hawkish press conference.Obviously, if the Fed chooses 3, then precious metals will soar, and if it chooses 2, then precious metals will plummet. Both of them are actually small probabilities, and the final cash should be 1 and 4, while I firmly believes that it is 4,That is, before the interest rate meeting, bulls have an advantage, but the press conference is likely to be hawkish and market will dive.It's a pity that the volatility of gold price is limited in the end, and it didn't reach aro
Two More Rate Hikes ahead this year？What Does it mean For Gold?
Will the Fed cut interest rates after the inflation data is released?
At 20:30 on May 10th, Beijing time, the United States released inflation data for March.According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics,In April, the CPI of the United States increased by 4.9% year-on-year, falling for the tenth consecutive time, the smallest year-on-year increase since April 2021, expected 5%, previous value 5%; CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month, with an expected value of 0.4% and a previous value of 0.1%.PictureThe core CPI excluding energy and food slowed down slightly from last month, up 5.5% year-on-year, which was the same as expected and the previous value was 5.6%; It increased by 0.4% month-on-month, expected to be 0.4%, and the previous value was 0.4%.In addition, the Federal Reserve loves "super core inflation", and the CPI of core services except housing slowed
Will the Fed cut interest rates after the inflation data is released?
Ahead of CPI, The Market Rose in Expectation,but Chinese market enter a period of correction
Overnight, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that,Although raising interest rates to curb economic growth may trigger political shocks, the Fed is firmly committed to reducing inflation.Powell's prepared speech did not comment on the Fed's upcoming interest rate decision, but emphasized the importance of central bank independence and the steps needed to maintain autonomy in policy making.I thinks Powell's speech is not much new, but from the recent comments of many Fed officials, such as Brad, Bostic, Daley and others, they are all guiding the market expectation, that is, this round of Fed interest rate hike cycle needs to increase the interest rate level to 5.00%-5.25%.However, Gundlach, founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital, pointed out that regarding the interest rate trend,In
Ahead of CPI, The Market Rose in Expectation,but Chinese market enter a period of correction
The window of RRR cut is approaching，A50 index rebound after hitting the bottom
Recently, due to the economic and financial data in March showing that the downward pressure on the economy is increasing, combined with the proposal of "timely use of monetary policy tools such as RRR cut" by the State Council, the market has a high voice for the central bank to cut RRR or interest rates, and even some voices shout that April 15th is the nearest policy observation window. No matter from the necessity of policy implementation or the space of policy manoeuvre, it is feasible to cut the RRR or interest rate in the near future. Although there is a view that China's economy is facing a complicated situation of preventing imported inflation from outside and increasing downward pressure from inside, which has little effect on the use of monetary policy aggregate tools, China
The window of RRR cut is approaching，A50 index rebound after hitting the bottom
A news shocked the crude oil market!Are the dip buyers ready for it?
Last week，I have given the idea that WTI crude oil can enter the market to bargain-hunt after being as low as 76.25 USD/barrel before refreshing.Today's resumption of trading shows that those who did what i said can make a floating profit of 400-500 points overnight, but the problem is that there are very few traders did so , because according to the script of bargain-hunting in our original plan, this time node should be around November 28th, not overnight.So, what happened overnight?Generally speaking, during the week of "World Cup + Thanksgiving Day", the volatility of the whole global financial market will be relatively calm, which can be felt by everyone from the volatility of the varieties they pay attention to recently. After all, traders and
A news shocked the crude oil market!Are the dip buyers ready for it?
How to interpret the impact of the mid-term elections on US stocks
The important time window this week is9 and 10,Because we may see the concrete results of the mid-term elections on the 9th, and we will see the latest inflation data in the United States on the 10th.Why is it possible?According to the U.S. Constitution, the U.S. presidential election is held every four years.Congressional elections are held every two years.One congressional election coincides with the quadrennial presidential election, while the other is held between presidential terms.Congressional elections held between presidential terms are "mid-term elections".This means that this time, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be re-elected, and 35 seats will be re-elected for 100 seats in the Senate. In addition, 36 States will hold governor elections and 46 States will
How to interpret the impact of the mid-term elections on US stocks
Fitch cuts US credit rating to AA+,Here is what it means for the market
Fitch Ratings, an international rating agency, downgraded the Long-Term Rating from "AAA" to "AA +", and its outlook changed from negative to stable. The reason is that the fiscal situation is expected to deteriorate in the next three years, and the government debt burden is high and increasing.PictureIn response, US Treasury Secretary Yellen immediately refuted it as "arbitrary and out of date".Former US Treasury Secretary Summers said: "There is no doubt about the solvency of the United States."The White House then issued a special statement saying, "At a time when President Biden achieved the strongest recovery of any major economy in the world,Downgrading the U.S. is Contrary to reality. "Indeed, if you just look at the small non-agricultural ADP data released tonight, you really have
Fitch cuts US credit rating to AA+,Here is what it means for the market
Will The Debt Ceiling Agreement be Reached soon? But it`s not the rest easy time for stock market
Many important things happened over the weekend, including the agreement in principle on US debt, the normal operation of the domestic large aircraft C919 COMAC, and the release of the Turkish election results.Since the European and American financial markets are closed for holidays, the closure also means that the EIA related to crude oil fluctuations and the small non-agricultural ADP data related to gold fluctuations are released on Thursday instead of Wednesday,The highlight of Wednesday is the second step."Referring to the script of one, two and three steps, reaching a principled agreement on debt over the weekend is actually equivalent to realizing the first step. Of course, due to the closure of European and American financial markets, the real volatility has not been released. If t
Will The Debt Ceiling Agreement be Reached soon? But it`s not the rest easy time for stock market
Here's How The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict May Cause the Next Oil Crisis
US President Biden flew to the Middle East in a hurry, but still failed to prevent the tragedy from happening.On the 17th, local time, the "Ahli Arab Hospital" (also known as Baptist Hospital) in Gaza City, Gaza Strip was attacked by air, killing at least 500 Palestinians. Jordanian Foreign Minister Safadi announced in the early morning of 18th that he would cancel the quadripartite summit with the United States, Egypt and Palestine.At the meeting in Jeddah, Iran's foreign minister stressed the need to sanction Israel, impose an oil embargo and withdraw its ambassador.Affected by this, the risk aversion warmed up across the board. The price of spot gold once climbed to $1,962/oz, and WTI crude oil once surged to $88.57/barrel. At present, both of them have declined.Of course, due to the fe
Here's How The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict May Cause the Next Oil Crisis
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