3.3% Dividend Yield recently announced 4% dividend increase.Expects robust housing recovery in 2026, betting on a similar timeline for commercial real estate.#1 market share in the US for title insurance, in both agency and direct sales.F&G has secular tailwind in life and annuity from aging population.Despite downturn in housing market, FNF grew revenues by 8% over the first 9 months of 2024.Investment Thesis $Fidelity National(FNF)$ is a provider of title insurance and settlement services to the mortgage industry, and a provider of annuity and life insurance through F&G which owns approximately 85% of.We believe we are at the cyclical bottom of the housing market, and at a long-term bottom for commercial real estate. As rates come down an

5.3% Dividend Yield with 5% dividend growth.Strong long-term production profile, expecting a 4% CAGR output increase to 2030 with breakeven below $30/boe (barrel of oil equivalent).Long-term focus on LNGs (Liquified Natural Gas), expecting to grow export capacity by more than 50% by 2030, with 6 Mt/y (million tons per year) in long-term supply contracts signed with Asian importers.Trades at an attractive valuation at just 7.8x earnings.Committed to $2 billion in buybacks each quarter of 2025.Investment Thesis $Total SA(TTE)$ is a French energy company specializing in petroleum extracting and refining. TTE is the third largest non-OPEC producer in the world, producing 1.6 mmbbl/d of liquids (million barrels per day) and more than 5 bcf/d (billion cu

Committed to repurchasing 2.3% of shares within the next quarter, on top of a modest 1.0% dividend.Strong presence in the SMB (Small-medium business) space, consolidating its 16 brands into one coherent entity.#1 commercial card processor in the US, processing more than 35 billion transactions annually across 830 million accounts.70% attachment rate for new offerings to existing customers.Investment Thesis $Global Payments(GPN)$ is one of the largest payment processors in the world, primarily working on the acquirer side. GPN processes more than 75 billion transactions a year with 5 million merchant customers in more than 38 countries.  Compared to its other ‘legacy’ peers, GPN has targeted middle-market enterprise as its growth avenue. I

$.DJI(.DJI)$ $.SPX(.SPX)$ $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ $WTI Crude Oil - main 2412(CLmain)$ OverviewReal GDP growth came in at 2.8% year over year, with inflation moderating to 2.4% year over year, though food and shelter were still elevated.Real disposable income rose once again for the quarter ending September 2024, the 27th straight monthly rise and the longest streak since record keeping began in 1959. However, the savings rate remains at near record-lows at just 5% compa

TDK is leader in small solid state batteries and announced supply agreement with AppleGrowth areas in wearables, phones, IoT (Internet of Things) and EVs (Electric Vehicles)Dominant market share in several areas, including in smartphone battery components, holding the #1 market share of 50-60%.Strong manufacturing and materials science expertise, first to bring silicon anode batteries to market in 2023.Targeting late-stage development products for M&A.Aggressive capital efficiency plan, potentially divesting business units that do not meet the 10% ROIC watermark.$1 USD = 150 JPYInvestment Thesis $TDK Corp.(TTDKY)$ is a Japanese industrial components supplier, manufacturing 120,000 different products across 80 business units and 4 segments. We

1.8% dividend yield.Secular tailwind from municipal underspending and defense rearmament.Revenue forecasted to grow 10.8% in 2024, driven by increased demand in the vocational segment.Expanding access business into Europe, trying to get ahead of tariffs.Investment Thesis $Oshkosh(OSK)$ is an American manufacturer of heavy equipment, primarily targeting municipal and military customers. Despite the loss of the JLTV contract (Joint Light Tactical Vehicle), OSK has a strong backlog originating from a major win from the USPS (US Postal Service), renewed municipal spending, and expansion into Europe.Oshkosh has a 1.8% dividend yield and a growing free cash profile which we expect to accelerate as startup costs from major contracts roll off going into la

2.0% Yield.Strong secular volume tailwind from aging population, with Medicare Advantage holders having a higher average revenue-per-test.AI (Artificial Intelligence) in pathology testing should drive high margin  growth.Tailwind from more bespoke testing, with genetic testing seeing a market-wide spending growth of 8% and 5% volume growth according to Avalon.Increasing leverage to 2.5-3.0x debt to EBITDA to enable more freedom in aggressive acquisitions.Strong M&A profile, purchasing Canadian provider LifeLabs for $1 billion, which will generate $710 million in additional annual revenues by 2025.Investment Thesis $Quest Diagnostics(DGX)$ is a provider of medical diagnostic services to markets across the world. Operations are focused on No

2.84% Yield.Industry-leading 90% of revenue comes from working timberland rather than leasing it for harvesting rights (stumpage)Largest timberland holdings in North America with more than 10.5 million acres.Long-term tailwinds from historic pent-up demand and lows in new housing.Timber assets generally appreciate with inflation and tree growth.Investment Thesis $Weyerhaeuser(WY)$ is the largest timberland REIT in North America. It owns 10.5 million acres in the US, and licenses 14 million acres in Canada for logging. Additionally, it operates 35 mills with the capacity of 6 billion board feet per year in finished lumber and 4.1 billion square feet of flat and engineered lumber.AssetAsset Value (Per Share)% of totalTimberland$39.3589.6%Other$0.681.5

5.0% Yield.Offering services to enhance margin including more small-business mix and specialized medical logistics services.Consolidating 200 sorting centers, with the new automated counterparts offering a reported 30% efficiency improvement.Expects to generate $5.8 billion in free cash in 2024, adding to its already massive $6.3 billion cash position.Industry-leading capital efficiency, with a return on invested capital median of 27% for the last 3 years.Investment Thesis $United Parcel Service Inc(UPS)$ is an American delivery company that processes more than 20 million packages per day across its fleet of 115,000 ground vehicles and 500 aircraft. UPS is repositioning to target more SMB (Small Medium Business) customers and more specialized logis

Economic and Market Review September 2024• Equity markets have strong year-to-date returns, with the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ having its first positive September in 5 years.• $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ and $Silver - main 2412(SImain)$ surge amid continued economic uncertainty and global conflict fears.OverviewThe Fed cut rates by 50bps. The market rallied on the news but flattened out as the month progressed, with the S&P ending the month up 2.8%. However, the last time the Fed cut rates by 50bps with markets at all time highs was in October 2007 – what followed in 2008 came to be known as the ‘great recession’.As a refences, at the time Debt to GDP

2.2% Yield.LW holds #1 market share in North America, and #2 for the rest of the world for frozen-potato products.Dominance in the frozen-potato product market, being the provider for French-fries for customers such as McDonalds, Chic Fil A, Arby’s and Sonic.Transitioning to a volume-focused growth strategy rather than pricing-focused.Expects headwinds in restaurant traffic to begin to alleviate in the middle of 2025.Investment Thesis $Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.(LW)$ is a consumer-staples company specializing in the production of frozen-potato products. Across 27 factories and in more than 100 countries, LW holds #1 market share in North America, and #2 for the rest of the world.As consumer finances have become strained, we believe that consumers wi

2.7% Yield.Kroger agreed to purchase Albertsons for $24.6 billion in October 2022.If approved, Albertsons shareholders will receive $27.25 per share, a 48.3% premium to the current stock price.Albertsons holds 6.4% of total grocery market share in 2023, while Kroger holds 10.1%.$600 million claw back provision to be paid to Albertsons if the merger does not go through, recouping its costs.Investment Thesis $Albertsons Companies, Inc.(ACI)$ is a US grocery chain that operates 2,269 stores across 20 banner brands including Safeway, Albertsons, Acme, and Shaw’s, and 3 private label brands that earn more than $1 billion each.Same store sales increased by 1.4% year over year in the quarter ended June 2024, with a minor expansion of gross margins to 28.4

2.94% Yield.Expanding margins despite sales slump, increasing gross margin by 160bps.Deleveraged balance sheet down to 1.8x net debt to EBITDA, down substantially from 2022 highs.Approaching holiday season will buoy results until rate cuts begin to impact consumer spending habits back toward discretionary goods.Resumed share buybacks, authorized outstanding buybacks are 13.6% of outstanding shares.Stock is a hold post August 21st earnings release as the stock has popped 22.5% since its August 5th lows.Investment Thesis $Target(TGT)$ is an American retailer that operates department stores. Despite resilient sales and expanding margins, Target has lagged peers like Walmart in capital appreciation. We feel this is due to economic uncertainty and

$DJIA(.DJI)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ $WTI Crude Oil - main 2410(CLmain)$ OverviewStocks have largely recovered from the almost 10% correction seen early in August, which was the worst start to a month since 2002. However, in just 11 trading days the market had recovered and even came near its record July highs.While the Fed has begun to telegraph it will likely cut before the year is out, the market may be jumping the gun, pricing in an aggressive 100bps cut by the end of the year. For September, 63% expect a 25bps cut, and 37% exp

4.2% Dividend YieldTrading at substantial discount to our $53 per share estimate of asset value.Timberland is good inflation hedge.Share repurchases demonstrate management’s belief in the underlying asset values.Strong real estate performance has offset the weak performance in the wood products segment.Lumber market appears to have bottomed out with expectations of a recovery in the spring.Investment Thesis $Potlatch(PCH)$ is a lumber REIT with 2.2 million acres of timberland and 7 sawmills, concentrated largely in the Pacific Northwest and Deep South.Currently, the lumber market is depressed by oversupply and unseasonably low construction demand. This has driven PotlatchDeltic’s price down by 11% over the trailing twelve months, now trading at a d

3.1% Dividend YieldMore than 500 brands globally, with 23 flagships earning more than $1 billion in revenue.Consumer staples giant, owning Quaker Foods, Frito-Lay, and Pepsi.Pepsi is trading at a discount compared to peers and its own historical valuation.Elevated capex for improving resilience in the supply chain and efficiency improvements.Expects long-term revenue growth between 4-6%, with high single digit earnings growth.Investment Thesis $Pepsi(PEP)$ is a diversified blue chip company providing beverages and snacks. PepsiCo operates in more than 200 territories and countries globally, with over 500 brands. The “flagship brands”, those that generate more than $1 billion in revenue, include 23 globally recognized names across both beverages and

8.9% Dividend Yield.Powerful brands including Audi, Lamborghini, Bentley, and majority ownership in Porsche.New EV JVs to reduce capital costs, with Rivian for global EVs and Xpeng for Chinese-made EVs.Cost savings program targeting $11 billion in total savings by 2026.11% market share, second in the world with 9.24 million vehicles delivered in 2023.Low valuation relative to peers, trading at just 3.1x earnings. Investment Thesis $Volkswagen AG(VWAGY)$ is a German automotive giant, encompassing more than 10 vehicle brands, including VW, Audi, Lamborghini, Bently, and several European brands like Skoda. During 2023, Volkswagen delivered 9.24 million vehicles in 153 countries.Additionally, Volkswagen holds significant ownership in the publicly tra

6.9% Dividend YieldStrong acquisition and expansion profile, focusing on building out utility and Gulf Coast capacity.Secular tailwinds in liquids from 500 Mbbl/d in expansion in the WCSB.Strong LNG and WCSB export demand driving expansionary footing.Expects continued capital deployment of $4-7 billion per year over the medium-term.Note: 1 CAD = $0.75 USD.Investment Thesis $Enbridge(ENB)$ is a combined liquids and natural gas midstream company, that also provides some utility service to end customers. ENB’s revenue profile is somewhere between a typical midstream player and a utility. This provides a revenue floor during low-price periods, though the tradeoff is often a cap on return on equity. ENB is undergoing a repositioning, expanding both

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ $WTI Crude Oil - main 2409(CLmain)$ OverviewThe Fed left rates unchanged once again, though they stated that “some further progress” had been made toward the long-term inflation goal of 2%. However, it also emphasized that the economic outlook is uncertain, meaning the next few months are going to be critical for the Fed in deciding if it can squeeze a rate decrease before the end of 2024.While the yield curve remains inverted for the longest period in history, the spread has begun to narrow wit