To The Moon

Best Buy's Q3 results missed revenue and EPS targets, with comparable sales growth at -2.9% and disappointing Q4 guidance, leading to a 7% decline Tuesday morning. The challenging macroeconomic environment, election distractions, and uncompetitive business model against Walmart and Amazon are significant headwinds for Best Buy. I remain bearish on BBY, expecting continued sales decline, potential dividend cuts, and store closures due to weak consumer demand and macroeconomic pressures. Contrary to most analysts, I doubt BBY's EPS will recover by 2027. Instead, I forecast a long-term decline that may accelerate with economic weakness next year. I plan to hold my short position in BBY until its valuation fairly discounts its chronic competitive pressures, or the company proves its ability to

Clear Secure's sharp decline in post-Q3 earnings is due to slowing customer growth and declining net member retention despite solid sales growth and profitability. The company's focus on profitability over customer acquisition and retention may hinder long-term growth, especially with regulatory risks. Clear Secure must diversify beyond airport security to unlock its full potential, but its current strategy seemingly prioritizes short-term shareholder value. While YOU has substantial sales growth and a low forward P/E ratio, given its rising profitability, its business model and management focus raise long-term growth concerns. In my view, the company must prove that it is not a "fast pass" that benefits from price discrimination but actually fulfills an identification need, particularly o

Lithium Americas offers significant long-term value despite the current lithium market glut and stock price declines due to its large Thacker Pass deposit and low-cost production potential. LAC benefits from strong US government support and General Motors' investment, positioning it well for future growth in the domestic EV supply chain. Key risks include potential project delays, cost overruns, and further lithium price declines due to economic slowdowns and increased supply. Long-term investors may find LAC undervalued. If it achieves competitive production costs and meets development timelines, it has substantial profit potential. Lithium Americas aims to have similar costs to South American miners, as lithium is less labor intensive than most mines, and the US project may have greater

SGOV is only a good investment if we can safely assume its yield will be above the inflation rate, which has been the case since 2022. The market is bracing for a total 50-75 bps rate cut over the next year, which seems likely given low and falling hiring rates, pointing toward a sustained unemployment increase. Geopolitical risks and potential tariffs could increase inflation, particularly in goods, while service inflation remains elevated due to shortages in skilled jobs. Given historical precedence and the last jumbo rate cut, I expect significant inflationary monetary and fiscal stimulus in response to a further increase in unemployment. Investors may be best shifting toward inflation-indexed bonds like VTIP, which should outperform inflation, while SGOV appears likely to underperform

Sprouts Farmers Market has surged 470% since I became bullish in 2021, driven by superior management and a bifurcating grocery industry. Despite its high valuation, SFM's strong growth potential and market shift away from middle-market grocers like Kroger and Albertson's continued double-digit sales growth. Projecting its growth into the 2030s, Sprouts may be reasonably valued today, given that its sales are currently far below its expanding total addressable market. Sprouts is far more expensive than Kroger and Albertsons, but is likely undervalued to Costco. Compared to Costco, Sprouts has more recession risk but far superior long-term growth potential. SFM's current valuation appears risky due to potential demand fluctuations and fickle short-term momentum traders. Kobus Louw In 2021, S

Whirlpool faces potential short-term strains but possible long-term benefits from the Trump administration's efforts to improve US manufacturing activity. Despite recent financial struggles, including high debt and low margins, WHR's valuation reflects its risks, with analysts predicting a margin recovery after 2025. US manufacturing's post-pandemic recession and low home sales are significant challenges, but a supportive regulatory environment could aid Whirlpool's future growth. I cautiously upgrade my view on WHR to mildly bullish. I expect pressures in the short term but see it as a reasonable long-term value investment. simonkr/E+ via Getty Images From 2018 to 2023, the US had a tariff policy on washing machines. The tariff was initially set at 20% for the first 1.2M units and 50% abo

Cameco Corporation reported a non-GAAP EPS of -$0.01 and substantial revenue of $721M, up ~25% YoY, with a positive financial outlook and increased dividend. Operational improvements and the reopening of the McArthur River/Key Lake mine boosted the 2024 production outlook despite supply issues in Kazakhstan. The uranium market is supply side-driven; Cameco's long-term contracts and potential supply disruptions in Kazakhstan could keep uranium prices high, improving CCJ's income years from now. If supply conditions in Kazakhstan normalize, as expected, the market seems to be headed back into a glut, pushing uranium back below $60-$70 per pound. Cristian Martin/iStock via Getty Images The uranium (UXA:COM) mining giant Cameco Corporation

Trump's Polymarket election odds have a 73% R-squared to the 10-year Treasury rate, indicating that a Trump win would lower high-duration bond prices. A Republican sweep of the House and Senate may exacerbate losses by making deficit spending policies more feasible. However, the same can be argued for a Democrat sweep. My long-term view on high-duration Treasury bonds is decidedly bearish, given the bipartisan consensus against fiscal responsibility and pro-inflationary Fed policies. The bond-Trump correlation may result from foreign investment risk, with China potentially divesting US Treasuries in a trade conflict. The manufacturing economy is in a recession, but the service economy has strengthened, creating a complex outlook for 2025 unemployment. J Studios There is much speculation re

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac continue fluctuating with election odds and face immense volatility risk over the coming week. FNMA has been down since June, as Harris's ascent has lowered Trump's odds. Its Q3 results were slightly disappointing and indicated some risk in multifamily. Although the election matters over the short term, I think FNMA's 2030 value is more dependent on the economic trend and whether or not the housing market has a "soft landing." Home valuation and multifamily cap rates are unsustainably high today but were previously supported by low vacancy rates and single-family inventories. With vacancies and inventories rising, I expect housing valuations will decline in 2025-2027. Given high mortgage coverage ratios, FNMA should be safe if they do not fall too quickly. ablokh

Given Albertsons' significant discount to Kroger's merger price, it appears highly unlikely that the deal will be completed. With the FTC's effort to ensure the merger lacks pricing power advantages, I believe KR is better off without the debt-laden company. Kroger may benefit if ACI closes stores or lay-offs employees, as it has suggested as a long-term result of a failed merger. Lower agricultural input costs lift the Company's gross margins, but to improve its market position, it needs to vertically integrate and invest in private-label branding. In the long run, Kroger will likely need significant investment to adapt to consumer bifurcation trends, which benefit wholesale and premium grocers more than those "stuck in the middle." jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Kroger (N