To The Moon

摘要：回顾上周，在经济数据及经济事件影响下，不同主要货币对走势分化。美元指数上周保持震荡，且在周五PCE数据发布后显示出一定的抗跌韧性。目前，美联储9月的降息预期已完全反映在市场走势中且暂未有所改变。非美货币方面，日元本周延续强劲表现，英镑则在英国央行潜在降息预期上升的情况下继续回落。展望本周，美联储、日本央行、英国央行等央行公布的利率决议值得关注。此外，多国将有重要经济数据发布，外汇市场波动性可能增加。1. 全球外汇焦点回顾与基本面摘要美元指数窄幅波动体现一定抗跌性 重点关注本周议息会议美元指数上周终止下跌趋势于窄幅区间波动，周五PCE数据发布后美元虽有所下跌，但并未形成趋势性走势。这一表现反映出市场对美国经济数据下，美联储政策的不确定性保持警惕，暂未达到一致性预期。目前，美联储官员发言态度谨慎，目前汇价基本反映了市场的9月降息预期，料本周议息会议成为市场焦点引发汇价波动。市场期待日本央行本周加息 利差减小预期可缓解做空日元压力日本央行可能在本周利率决议会议上决定加息，目前市场预期加息10个基点的可能性为64%。若加息落地，则美日利差会有所缩小，同时，波动性上升加大持仓风险，做空日元的难度会有所提高。除本次是否加息的结果外，日本央行本周关于后续潜在政策变动的表态将会对日元走势产生重要影响。英镑连续第二周自然回落 市场降息预期高涨但降息路径分歧英镑上周表现相对稳定，延续了周线冲高回落的走势，但价格并未触及或突破重要阻力位。本周的英国央行议息会议将成市场焦点，目前市场普遍预计英国央行年内将累计降息51个基点，但在降息具体路径上分歧较大。部分分析师认为会在本月，部分则认为将会在9月，但如果在9月前英国经济数据显示改善迹象，则意味着英镑可能会获得新的支撑。2.外汇期货与期权走势分析2.1、重要外汇期货合约走势（图）图片2.2、期货市场头寸分析据美国商品期货委员会公布的2024-0

Fundamental analysis(1) In the United States, ISM manufacturing PMI continued to decline in May, while service PMI slowed down its expansion. In June, rate hike was suspended and expected to heat up.According to the data released on June 1st, the ISM manufacturing PMI of the United States recorded 46.9 in May, with the previous value of 47.1 and the expected value of 47. The ISM manufacturing PMI of the United States in May fell short of the expected downward trend. According to the data released on June 5, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI of the United States recorded 50.3 in May, with the previous value of 51.9 and the expected value of 52.3. The ISM service PMI of the United States fell short of expectations in June, indicating that the expansion of manufacturing industry slowed down. Acco

From the domestic macro point of view, it is still unsatisfactory at present, but the price decline has already priced in some negative factors in stages. Considering that the overall decline of other industrial metals has been very considerable, and many of them have fallen near the cost or reduced production, so the weak recovery may start to price towards the end of recovery, and the price will rebound.1. Review of COMEX copper market last weekCOMEX copper price fluctuated and rebounded last week, and the operating center of gravity moved up. The resolution of the debt ceiling problem has given the market some room to risk on, and risky assets have generally rebounded. The weaker economic data in Europe was priced in the previous price decline, while the economic data in the United Stat

Recent problems in the US and Swiss banking systems have led markets to sharply cut interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve. In just a few weeks, traders have changed from expecting four rate hike to wondering whether the Fed will continue its rate hike or even cut interest rates as soon as this summer (Figure 1).SOFR futures curve on March 24th and March 8thFigure 1: Interest rate expectations have changed dramatically in the past few weeksThe sharp change in interest rate expectations is good for gold. Gold is a de facto currency, and almost every major central bank has a large reserve of gold. However, gold is a non-interest-bearing currency. Therefore, when rate hike expectations are formed, gold prices tend to weaken. In fact, since the end of 2021, because investors' expec

In Europe, the strike in France continues, but the upstream resource supply remains sufficient, the downstream demand continues to be weak, the market inventory turns from falling to rising, the natural gas market forms a situation of oversupply, and the market reserve gradually increases, which drives the TTF futures price down.The temperature in the United States has risen, the domestic temperature remains appropriate, the downstream demand remains weak, the export remains stable, and the futures price of NG in the United States remains low and volatile.Market profileAs of April 11, the futures price of natural gas (NG) in Henry Port of the United States was 2.186 US dollars/million British heat, up 0.08 US dollars/million British heat from the previous cycle (04.05), an increase of 3.8%

Since November last year, There has been a strong rebound in gold prices at home and abroad, The driving force for the rebound of gold price comes from the market's expectation that the Fed's interest rate hike will slow down, and the nominal interest rate of the US dollar will fall at a high level. When inflation falls slowly, the real interest rate of the US dollar will also fall, which reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold and stimulates the rebound of gold investment demand. Geopolitical crises such as Russia-Ukraine conflict also brought some safe-haven buying, which supported the rebound of gold prices. In addition, the European Central Bank will raise interest rates stronger than the Federal Reserve in the future, which will also lead to the weakening of the US dollar exchang

Since mid-January, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has depreciated again, with the maximum depreciation reaching 4.2% as of the close of February 27th. The main reason for the reversal of the appreciation momentum of RMB exchange rate before is that the economic growth between China and the United States is expected to be poor, that is, the risk of economic recession in the United States has not been fulfilled in the short term, while the strong recovery of China's economy has yet to be verified. In addition, inflation in the United States is stubborn, and the expectation that the Federal Reserve will slow down or stop raising interest rates has been significantly reversed.Driven by the scissors difference between the downward interest rate caused by the release of liquidity

The fluctuation of European natural gas price caused by Russia-Ukraine conflict is coming to an end. The United States is replacing Russia as the main energy supplier of the European Union, superimposing the popularization of European LNG infrastructure construction, and the framework of European natural gas de-Russianization has basically taken shape, making the contradiction between supply and demand in European and American markets have improved, and European natural gas prices have continued to fall​LNG consumption in Europe may be released in summerFor most areas, the demand for natural gas is usually high in winter, which is the peak of natural gas use because it is used to heat houses and buildings. As the temperature drops, people usually turn on the heating, which increases the de

The fluctuation of European natural gas price caused by Russia-Ukraine conflict is coming to an end. The United States is replacing Russia as the main energy supplier of the European Union, superimposing the popularization of European LNG infrastructure construction, and the framework of European natural gas de-Russianization has basically taken shape, making the contradiction between supply and demand in European and American markets have improved, and European natural gas prices have continued to fall​LNG consumption in Europe may be released in summerFor most areas, the demand for natural gas is usually high in winter, which is the peak of natural gas use because it is used to heat houses and buildings. As the temperature drops, people usually turn on the heating, which increases the de

1. weekly performance of major US stock index futuresIn the past week, under the influence of the Federal Reserve's interest rate resolution and economic data, the market showed a trend of rising first and then declining. The futures of the three major stock indexes closed up, and the mini Nasdaq index was among the top gainers. The Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected by the market, which stimulated the optimistic expectation of the follow-up Fed to speed up the end of the interest rate hike cycle. However, the strong employment data dispelled the positive attitude of the market and deepened hawkish concerns, and US stocks were under pressure in the second half of the week. Specifically, from January 30 to 31, the market was mainly affected by the Fed's interest rate r