To The Moon

As the year 2024 draws to a close, the global financial market has faced significant challenges and considerable development. At this time of year-end review, I hope to reflect on last year's predictions and provide a framework for global investment in 2025 for discussion and criticism.I remember that more than twenty years ago, when I graduated from the University of Lausanne with a Ph.D. and joined Morgan Stanley on Wall Street, I would learn from the Chief US Economist, Byron Wien, about his top ten global economic predictions for the following year. The intellectual sparring between him and the then Chief Economist, Steven Roach, on macroeconomic issues was immensely beneficial to us.In recent years, major institutions in the United States have been promoting young people, including ma

I attended the $BlackRock(BLK)$ Private Equity Summit today, which was quite rewarding. Blackstone's chief economist believes that the Fed's rate cuts will be less frequent and smaller than expected, and that inflation is likely to restart next year, with a new round of rate hikes beginning in October 25.The core of this year's US election is Sweep! To win big! Neither side wants to just win the White House, not a small win but a big win, and both sides are shouting to sweep the White House and Congress!Doing well on the fiscal front is critical. Neither Trump nor Harris has prioritized fiscal discipline, and the US federal deficit is likely to remain around $2.0 trillion per year for the next few years. Whether the deficit situation can be changed

The recent U.S. macroeconomic data is so strong that the Federal Reserve regrets cutting interest rates. [Cute]The latest retail sales data for September and the first two weeks of October show that, driven by solid employment growth, strong wage growth, and high stock and housing prices, U.S. consumers continue to perform well. #KaiFeng Fundamentals#The Atlanta Fed's GDP forecast for the third quarter is currently 3.4%, with the bottom line being that economic expansion continues.Why are the upcoming data so strong? Because the factors favorable to the economy are increasing:The Federal Reserve is dovish.High stock prices, high housing prices, and tight credit spreads.Open public and private financing markets.The CHIPS Act, IRA, Infrastructure Act, and defense spending continue to support

$Sea Ltd(SE)$ attract my eyes agian.$Sea Ltd(SE)$ stage 2 breakout on deck. 1.5B stock, I like it when it moves.Image $Sea Ltd(SE)$ is transforming the business successfully into a cash flow machine, proving its gaming franchise is evergreen, cementing its e-commerce dominance, and growing its fintech at 20%+ durably. At a $2B free cash flow run rate and a $9B cash pile, the stock is priced for more upside at 21x FCF.Cite from Riyado Sofian: “At $77, rate cuts, Free Fire India relaunch, and margin expansion due to products like advertising, have not been priced in. Trading at only 3x its Revenue, SE stock still has plenty of upside.”- Diversification - Exposure to Asia

We expect Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to hint that upcoming data supports the FOMC to begin policy normalization as soon as possible, which almost solidifies the expectation of a rate cut in September. Although we believe Powell won't rule out the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut in September, he might downplay concerns about the Fed being behind the curve or the U.S. economy deteriorating rapidly. Our base forecast remains a 25 basis point cut. We anticipate that by the end of the year, the Fed will have accumulated a 50 basis point rate cut. However, the risks to this view are becoming more one-sided, with more evident weakness in the labor market potentially challenging the Fed's employment mandate, necessitating further easing.🚶‍♂️ Step Back Before the Rate Cut: Following t

Massive retreat of short #Yen trade. Very typical global risk off.Image

Warren Buffett's $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ has reduced its stake in $BYD Co., Ltd.(BYDDY)$ to less than 5%.The Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer's sales volume has increased by 28%, but domestic price competition poses risks. $BYD Co., Ltd.(BYDDY)$ 's new car sales from January to June increased by 28% year-on-year, reaching 1.61 million units.Guangzhou - According to a document submitted to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Monday, Warren Buffett-led Berkshire Hathaway has sold more shares of the Chinese electric vehicle giant BYD. The American investment company has gradually reduced its holdings from about 20% to less than 5%. Berkshire sold 1,395,500 s

This year is the fastest time I have run in the "Invest in Yourself 5K" for more than ten years, and I finished the run in 30 minutes! It is also the year with the greatest gains in participating in the shareholders' meeting in more than ten years. $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.A)$ $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ 1. I met so many new and old friends. Our Omaha Value Investment Center/China-US Venture Capital Forum has been held for the ninth year. Professor Shi Yong [good], Tencent, Sina organized Chinese investors' cocktail reception, CFA Association, Value X BRK and other various cocktail receptions and dinners are all super great!2. Mr. Buffett is still vigorous. This year, we had a marathon-like exchange for

Greetings from #Omaha … any other #Buffett groupies here? $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.A)$ $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ #Berkshire annual meeting!#Omaha #Valueinvesting It’s raining a lot in Omaha, almost like Dubai now, too much rain… #Flood#warrenbuffett $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ CFA society in Omaha! Great gathering about why not to invest in #Bitcoin

4.Outlook for the Next Steps"Currently, the US economy faces both short-term and long-term challenges. In the short term, inflation in energy, food, real estate, and the service industry continues to rise. The Federal Reserve certainly cannot cut interest rates now, and the earliest possibility would be in June. This year is also an election year in the United States. According to convention, with the election scheduled for early November, the Fed can only stay put in September and October, regardless of whether it's cutting or maintaining interest rates. Any changes in monetary policy during the two months before the election will be labeled as "politicizing monetary policy." As an independent institution authorized by the US Congress, the Fed will never be dragged into political turmoil.