To The Moon

At the end of October, before the US presidential election, we specifically pointed out that gold had reached the medium and long-term target position, and it was time to take profits. At that time, the price of gold was around 2750. Although there were higher highs afterwards, looking back now, it was obviously a suitable appearance. In addition to price changes, more importantly, short-term and medium-term trends, and even long-term structures, gold shows obvious signs of loosening.First of all, from the perspective of the weekly situation, gold broke through the swing low last week, which was the first time since the autumn of 2023, when gold had not yet set a new record high. Generally speaking, if this low point is no longer gradually raised, it means that the obvious rally has stoppe

The much-anticipated U.S. election finally revealed its outcome last week: although Trump seems to be very close to Harris in traditional polls, it actually ended with Trump's big victory. With the second entry of this old acquaintance, the capital market also began to give some feedback. So what assets and changes are worth watching for us?About the crypto marketThere is no doubt that this is the strongest variety after the news that Trump is about to take office. Mainstream coins represented by Bitcoin and a number of altcoins have experienced huge gains in just one week. On the one hand, Trump showed the characteristics of a pro-crypto market during the election campaign; on the other hand, his main election assistant, Musk, is also very keen to "shout" on social media.Although we were

The U.S. election is about to give its final answer this week. The ups and downs of swing state data have caused some sensitive assets to take a roller coaster trend around last weekend. However, there are still some varieties fluctuating within a narrow range. Obviously, their breakthrough direction is likely to determine the market tendency in the next stage.Today we are going to talk about copper, which we haven't talked about for a long time. As a wide variety similar to crude oil, copper prices have gone out of a complete bull market and bear market in the first 11 months of this year, and are now just at the central axis level. What's more interesting is that in the past half month, the price has been running within a narrow range of 4.3-4.4 X.Copper has always been said by Dr. Coppe

The final chapter of the annual drama American election will come soon. As a hot spot that was regarded as more important than the Fed's interest rate cut at the beginning of the year, how will the election results affect the short-term, medium-and long-term development of the market?In terms of short-term fluctuations, we believe that the main difference between Harris and Trump will be the option of controlling the market. Although the risky assets represented by U.S. stocks have maintained a slow bull pattern recently, the continued weakness of oil prices still indicates that the market is currently expensive.If Trump takes office, it is very likely that he will start smashing the market after officially entering the White House. Or on the day of the general election, it is expected tha

The time node when silver compensated for the increase and the RMB exchange rate triggered the rise of precious metals in the internal market + various news and fundamentals gathered. These top features that have been talked about before are emerging one after another. As an old bull who has been bullish on gold for many years, now I am more cautious and waiting for a signal to exit. Always remember that pulling the market is the best way to sell goods. Don't go up or chase high is the only way to avoid deep traps and losing money.Silver showed a significant upward trend last week, breaking through the high in mid-May, and opening further higher this Monday. Obviously, the recent comparison of gold and silver trends has completely matched the compensatory effect of silver's late-coming fir

The last time we talked about cryptocurrency was 2-3 months ago, when Bitcoin had just completed a mid-level zigzag adjustment, and it looked like it was about to restart its rally. However, the advancement of the market is another result. The larger A-B-C correction has not broken through the downward channel by mid-October. Considering the approaching time of the U.S. election and the high levels of gold and the other two carriages of the U.S. stock index, the time to keep a long position seems to be increasingly limited at present.From the perspective of the weekly level, Bitcoin once fell below the 50,000 mark in the previous round of deep exploration, which made its height drop significantly even if the subsequent upward market was launched. At present, according to the form, it may b

Although domestic investors are focusing on chinese stock market, which opened today, as external observers and traders, we are always paying attention to the changes in the futures market. During the National Day holiday, the performance of crude oil was remarkable, but it was expected. Relatively speaking, the rise of the U.S. dollar index, which had been falling before, after the interest rate cut is also worthy of attention.We have talked about the logic of the rebound of the US dollar before the interest rate decision. A very important point is that in the latest round of interest rate hike-interest rate cut cycle, the foreign exchange market reflects the trend of expected rise/fall and reverse operation after landing. The fact that the Federal Reserve raises interest rates ahead of t

The long-awaited interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve finally landed in September. With the determination of the path of further easing, the main trading logic for the rest of the year has become clear: maintain the old thinking until before and after the election.Why can we maintain the existing trading ideas after the interest rate cut? On the one hand, judging from market feedback, risky assets have maintained a good trend, including the vane of USD/JPY, which is also a bottom out. This means that the trading pattern of the Biden administration has not changed. On the other hand, after the interest rate cut, Powell gave a "forward-looking guidance" at the press conference that he would cut interest rates twice during the year, each time by 25 basis points, which laid the foundation

Oil prices have fallen below the $70 level for the first time since the end of last year. Although they have not yet broken through the low support of nearly two years, their vigilant effect cannot be ignored. Coupled with the fact that the yen has not shown signs of returning to weakness, we may still have to make some preparations for tail risks.As we all know, crude oil, as the king of commodities, has long been highly correlated with the economy. Although under the control of the Biden administration, oil prices have become a range-bound variety in the past two years, but the market cannot run within a range forever. With the new president on the horizon, this kind of breakthrough will come sooner or later. However, if it breaks down before the general election, it may have different r

As the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates for the first time this year and the US election at the end of the year approaches, the recent trend of major assets has become increasingly lackluster. This opportunity, which seems to be brewing to break through the market, is actually not highly operable. Coupled with the lack of trading cost performance of several varieties with significant trends, we tend to see more and move less at this stage, which may be a better choice.First of all, on the three carriages mentioned earlier, gold is already very close to the target price expected at the beginning of the year (2575 +). If you get on the bus now to do long positions, it is easy to waste time at high positions or be washed away due to shocks. Although the trend of U.S. stocks is still good,