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开始你的表演
开始你的表演
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2021-08-12
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编组 21备份 2
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开始你的表演
开始你的表演
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2021-07-05
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Will the 2014 oil price "massacre" repeat itself? It's getting more and more likely
由于OPEC+未能就提高产量达成一致,这让本就紧张不已的市场,再次绷紧了神经。
Will the 2014 oil price "massacre" repeat itself? It's getting more and more likely
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开始你的表演
开始你的表演
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2021-06-15
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管你大盤如何,拓邦股份、和而泰走自己的行情!
@弹道美股:
最近有幾個訂閱貝瑞A股專欄《牛研星球》的朋友私信我們,要我們講講拓邦股份和和而泰的最新分析。這兩兄弟今年以來的業績表現差異太大了,拓邦股份今年以來漲了一倍多,和而泰漲了不到40%。我們是4月6號首發的《市值百億的智能控制器龍頭,是陷阱嗎?》,由於是付費內容,可能閱讀的人不多,但是股價在文章發佈後表現喜人,拓邦股份(代碼:002139)這兩個多月漲了50%多,和而泰(代碼:002402)差一點,漲了百分之十幾。兩者的市值目前已經很接近了。$拓邦股份(002139)$ $和而泰(002402)$ 我們發文以後,不出意料,拓邦和和而泰一季度的業績都可喜可賀,尤其是拓邦股份,一季度歸母扣非淨利同比暴增527%,我們在原文中以及在訂閱讀者羣裏說過拓邦股份的業務戰略是穩紮穩打型,而且研發投入很捨得。拓邦股份目前家電+電動工具收入佔比 80%,未來 3-5 年增長主賽道還是這兩個。因此,對拓邦股份來說,公司的戰略發展是隨着整個智能控制器行業的發展,以及在目前很低的市場集中度條件下不斷的提升市場份額。圖注:圖片源自網絡,侵權請聯繫刪除拓邦股份與和而泰在這兩個多月裏都迎來了密集的基金和券商調研,對投資者來說,也就意味着我們能獲取更多企業業務發展的信息。和而泰由於最早進入汽車電子控制器領域,而且去年以來獲得了70億tier 1廠商的訂單,所以市場的焦點主要在其汽車電子控制器的業務上,此外就是即將分拆上市的鋮昌科技的射頻芯片業務。相對來說,市場對於其原有的家電和電動工具業務的關注度沒有拓邦股份那麼高。總體上來說,由於汽車電
管你大盤如何,拓邦股份、和而泰走自己的行情!
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开始你的表演
开始你的表演
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2021-06-13
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@芳芳芳子:
$BlackBerry(BB)$[梭哈] [梭哈] [梭哈]
$BlackBerry(BB)$[梭哈] [梭哈] [梭哈]
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开始你的表演
开始你的表演
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2021-06-10
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阿里支付寶:舊物回收小程序成畢業季漲幅最大板塊
@美股研究社:
美股研究社消息,36氪獲悉,今日,支付寶數據顯示,隨着畢業季臨近,畢業生常用小程序成爲過去一個月收藏量漲幅最快的板塊,其中舊物回收類小程序漲幅最大。舊物回收小程序“飛螞蟻”總經理賀行林表示,今年加入“綠色畢業季”活動的高校有283所,去年回收量在40噸左右,預計今年會超過100噸。“白鯨魚”創始人方曉東表示,目前回收的單量增長已超過去年同期增長量的200%,回收單量最大的城市是上海,回收單量最大的高校是同濟大學。 本文來源:美股研究社,轉載請註明版權
阿里支付寶:舊物回收小程序成畢業季漲幅最大板塊
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开始你的表演
开始你的表演
·
2021-06-08
。
@Nms141319:
$AMC院線(AMC)$看了非常興奮....誰說散戶賣票啊???偶然發現了這張世界各地的?的百分比!真TMD壯觀,還持續增加。 ?的所有權爲 83.24%,在還沒有增加流通票時是持有85%以上,到現在流通票增加了,還是在83%左右,估計還會增加和附上不同國家?所有持股比率。 當你持有了,問問自己能承受多少波動和媒體的壓力,哈哈。我持有了了,我耐心等咯,對衝即將面對追加保證金,和嚴重操縱事情的罪行。??自己評估自己能力,自己評估自己盈利,自己評估自己心態,就是這樣,風雨後的彩虹。沒有買賣建議,買賣自負。
$AMC院線(AMC)$看了非常興奮....誰說散戶賣票啊???偶然發現了這張世界各地的?的百分比!真TMD壯觀,還持續增加。 ?的所有權爲 83.24%,在還沒有增加流通票時是持有85%以上,到現在流通票增加了,還是在83%左右,估計還會增加和附上不同國家?所有持股比率。 當你持有了,問問自己能承受多少波動和媒體的壓力,哈哈。我持有了了,我耐心等咯,對衝即將面對追加保證金,和嚴重操縱事情的罪行。??自己評估自己能力,自己評估自己盈利,自己評估自己心態,就是這樣,風雨後的彩虹。沒有買賣建議,買賣自負。
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开始你的表演
开始你的表演
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2021-06-07
H
上週五Moc大資金買入排行榜,nio,f,sklz,expr,kodk上榜
@美股队长8:
美股的很多基金(包括共同基金、對衝基金、養老金等)只能在尾盤以收盤價進行交易,英文叫Market-On-Close Stock Order Imbalances,簡稱moc,這些交易基本都是在尾盤15分鐘內進行交易。$蔚來(NIO)$ $福特汽車(F)$ $Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$ $Express(EXPR)$ $柯達(KODK)$ 實時買賣通知和實倉分享,請訂閱我的空間站
上週五Moc大資金買入排行榜,nio,f,sklz,expr,kodk上榜
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开始你的表演
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2021-06-05
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【深度】訴四家國企拖欠貨款41億 上海電氣83億財務黑洞的未解之疑
@经济观察报:
經濟觀察報 記者 張曉暉 一家持股40%的子公司,給母公司造成了83億元的利潤損失。這樣的故事正在上海電氣集團股份有限公司(601727.SH,以下簡稱“上海電氣”)身上發生。 2021年5月30日,“白馬股”上海電氣發佈《關於公司重大風險的提示公告》稱:公司合併報表範圍內的控股子公司——上海電氣通訊技術有限公司(以下簡稱“通訊公司”,上海電氣持有其40%的股權)應收賬款普遍逾期,存在大額應收賬款無法收回的風險。 截至本公告日(即5月30日),通訊公司應收賬款餘額爲86.72億元,賬面存貨餘額爲22.30億元,通訊公司在商業銀行的借款餘額爲12.52億元,公司向通訊公司提供的股東借款金額合計爲77.66億元,均存在重大損失風險。 經過上海電氣測算,在極端情況下,通訊公司可能對公司的歸母淨利潤造成83億元的損失(即上海電氣對通訊公司的股東權益損失和股東借款損失)。大約是上海電氣2020年淨利潤37.58億元的2.2倍。 消息披露之後,上海電氣股價在5月31日跌停,單日市值蒸發80億元,股價以4.61元收盤。 上海電氣的83億元財務爆雷背後,存在諸多疑點,比如通訊公司銷售的通信產品是什麼?爲什麼國企普遍拖欠貨款?爲什麼對通訊公司的股東借款能達到77.66億?通訊公司的內部控制是否出了問題?經濟觀察報近日來多次嘗試聯繫上海電氣董祕辦公室,但其年報披露的電話始終無法接通。 四家國企拖欠貨款41億元? 2021年5月31日,上海電氣披露了對四個拖欠貨款單位的訴訟。 通訊公司已向上海市第二中級人民法院、上海市楊浦區人民法院提起訴訟,請求判令被告北京首都創業集團有限公司(以下簡稱“首創集團”)、北京首都創業集團有限公司貿易分公司(以下簡稱“首創集團貿易公司”)、哈爾濱工業投資集團有限公司(以下簡稱“哈工投資”)、富申實業公司和南京長江電子信息產業集團有限公司(以下簡稱
【深度】訴四家國企拖欠貨款41億 上海電氣83億財務黑洞的未解之疑
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开始你的表演
开始你的表演
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2021-06-04
H
閱文走出“舒適圈”
@深燃:
影視文化產業早已經“離不開”網文了。2015年《琅琊榜》《花千骨》網文改編劇橫空出世,讓在互聯網上累積近二十年的網絡文學井噴式釋放,從《全職高手》《慶餘年》再到《斗羅大陸》《贅婿》,這些大衆耳熟能詳的影視作品,幾乎都是由網絡文學改編而來。數年時間裏,行業對網文IP的認識也經歷幾次沉浮。從2015年到2018年,熱錢瘋狂涌入,缺乏規劃盲目囤積、“趕工式”開發、“賭博式”開發等失序亂象,使得IP在影視領域一度是“粗製濫造”的代名詞,好IP被消耗。從2019開始,行業迴歸冷靜,這之後,開發亂象漸少,IP改編劇爆款穩定輸出。但實際上,開發出一部成功的影視作品,還並不是IP的全部價值。有聲、動漫、影視、遊戲、周邊串起了IP全產業鏈開發的上下游,它們若能有機協同,就能建立起一個“小宇宙”,比如大衆耳熟能詳的迪士尼《米老鼠和唐老鴨》,不止出現在影視作品中,人們還能在遊戲、玩具、T恤、帽子、線下游樂園等載體上,看到米老鼠的元素和身影,迪士尼授權的產品已經覆蓋了大衆生活的方方面面。這就是IP可以帶來的影響力。但眼下,國內IP行業存在的問題是,即便認識到了IP的價值,有聲、動漫、影視、遊戲乃至衍生品,各領域單線程地爭取版權,環節封閉互不打通,缺乏全局性的規劃,導致IP衍生內容之間熱度不延續,“人設打架”、情節欠缺呼應、書粉劇粉漫粉爭端不斷,沒有聚集效應,更談不上聯動和促進。沒有規劃的開發,割裂開發仍是IP發揮最大價值的阻力。所以,儘管文娛行業多家頭部公司喊出“要做中國迪士尼”的口號,中國遲遲沒有出現“漫威宇宙”,也沒有一個“迪士尼”。但這不意味着中國不存在機會,也不意味着中國不能走出自己的道路。在6月3日,閱文集團發佈了名爲“大閱文”的新戰略。大會上,閱文集團首席執行官、騰訊集團副總裁兼騰訊影業首席執行官程武表示,“大閱文”是“基於騰訊新文創生態,以網絡文學爲基石,以IP開放爲驅動力,開放性地
閱文走出“舒適圈”
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开始你的表演
开始你的表演
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2021-06-01
h
@SQ88:
$BUMITAMA AGRI LTD.(P8Z.SI)$[白眼] [白眼] [白眼]
$BUMITAMA AGRI LTD.(P8Z.SI)$[白眼] [白眼] [白眼]
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It's getting more and more likely","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157720359","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"由于OPEC+未能就提高产量达成一致,这让本就紧张不已的市场,再次绷紧了神经。","content":"<p>Author: Yu Xudong</p><p>As OPEC + failed to reach an agreement on increasing production, this once again tightened the nerves of the already nervous market.</p><p>On Friday, OPEC failed to break the deadlock within the organization for the second consecutive night. Delegates said that although most OPEC members supported the proposal to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day per month between August and December, it would also increase the broader The supply agreement is extended until the end of 2022, but the UAE remains firmly opposed. As the UAE still blocks the proposal to increase supply from being adopted, the parties will continue negotiations at 3pm local time in Vienna on July 5th (9pm Beijing time).</p><p>Just two days after the UAE refused to align with other OPEC members, Saudi Prince Abdul Aziz said in a Bloomberg TV interview late on Sunday that they must extend the production increase agreement, adding that the UAE has been isolated in OPEC. The Saudi prince's speech reflected the current tense situation within OPEC + and made it difficult for global markets to guess the future trend of crude oil prices.</p><p>Just hours ago, UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei once again rejected Saudi Arabia's proposed extension of the agreement and only supported increasing production in the short term. He has previously said that the UAE supports an unconditional increase in production, which is needed by the market, but the decision to extend the agreement until the end of 2022 is not necessary now.</p><p>It is worth noting that, according to Bloomberg, Foreign Minister Prince Abdul Aziz said that if the agreement is not extended, a back-up agreement will be reached, under which oil production will not increase in August and the rest of the year, which could cause oil prices to soar.</p><p>At the heart of the problem is the baseline. Production cuts or increases are measured against a benchmark-the higher this benchmark figure, the more oil a country is allowed to extract. The UAE wants to revise its benchmark before extending the cuts until the end of 2022 as it wants to produce more oil on top of its current benchmark quota.</p><p>The UAE's current benchmark is calculated from October 2018, when production was around 3.2 million barrels per day. Last year, that jumped to 3.8 million barrels per day. The UAE believes that the reference frame for the 2022 extension should not have started four years ago.</p><p>However, such a calculation is unlikely to be acceptable to Saudi Arabia and Russia, which refuse to recalculate the UAE's production target baseline and fear that concessions to one member will prompt everyone else in OPEC + to demand the same treatment, thereby undermining the already underway. Weeks of agreement negotiations.</p><p>Two outcomes: oil prices surge or complete collapse</p><p>Just like the differences within OPEC +, analysts from major institutions also have great differences on the future trend of international oil prices. This is mainly because the factors affecting the current oil price are indeed complicated.</p><p>On the one hand, the economic recovery of major economies, including the United States, is obvious, the demand side of the oil market is constantly improving, and OPEC + has maintained a trend of cautious production increase recently; On the other hand, Novel Coronavirus's mutant virus has begun to wreak havoc in some areas again, the job market in the United States and Europe is recovering slowly, and once the U.S. sanctions on Iran are lifted, Iran's oil production capacity will be greatly released, etc. These factors have inhibited the rise of international oil prices to a considerable extent. International oil prices are at a crossroads.</p><p>Data show that the international benchmark Brent crude oil futures were quoted at US $76.37 per barrel on Monday (July 5), rising more than 45% in the first half of this year; U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures closed at $75.27, up more than 50% in the first half of this year. Throughout June, Brent crude oil futures rose more than 8% and WTI crude oil prices rose more than 10% to their highest level since October 2018.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83e815454f7911baf0e973046b08481a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"137\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Although oil prices are still soaring in the trend, some analysts pointed out that the factors affecting the next oil price trend may be binary.</p><p>On the one hand, the UAE is forcing OPEC + into trouble-OPEC + will either accept the UAE's demands, or the risk of dissolving the cartel will occur without a production agreement.</p><p>If the former happens, oil prices will most likely rise sharply; If the latter happens, as Bloomberg said in an article, there will be a more dramatic situation-the oil price collapse on Thanksgiving Day in 2014 will be repeated, because OPEC + will be at risk of complete collapse, that is, all parties are fighting each other, and they can no longer form a united cartel, which leads to the oil price plummeting again since last year's crisis, and the nightmare repeats itself.</p><p>In the last year, it was the disagreement between Saudi Arabia and Russia that triggered a punitive price war that triggered the panic in March 2020.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that when asked if production could be increased without the involvement of the UAE, Abdulaziz said they cannot, and if OPEC collapses, every oil exporter will fight for itself, and after a brief price spike, oil will plummet again.</p><p>Abdulaziz's words also confirm that if the agreement goes bankrupt, there is a high probability that it will slip into the second situation.</p><p>At the same time, there is another potential event that will lead to more flooding of oil supplies, which will also knock oil prices down: once Iran reaches a nuclear deal with the Biden administration, it will return to the oil market, adding millions of barrels of oil supplies.</p><p>Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at Royal Bank of Canada, said a price war could be looming if the talks stalled, and if the talks end in complete discord, there is a risk of returning to a production situation for everyone for themselves, which could lead to oil price gains this year. A reversal of the trend. While they don't think this is the final possible outcome, they can't completely ignore it.</p><p>According to CNBC, Alejandro Barbajosa, Argus Media's vice president of crude oil business in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific region, said on Monday that in the very short term, the failure to reach an agreement obviously means that crude oil production will be very loose, and every country is very close to a price war. But he believes that OPEC + members will not reach the level of a real price war.</p><p>There was an oil price massacre in 2014</p><p>On Thanksgiving Day in 2014, a similar incident happened: OPEC's negotiations on production cuts broke down, but in the end the parties failed to reach an agreement, resulting in countries fighting independently on oil production, and then crude oil prices fell off a cliff.</p><p>On November 27th, 2014, OPEC, a cartel of oil producers including Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and Venezuela, held a large meeting in Vienna. Before the meeting, there was speculation that OPEC countries might cut their own oil production to support prices.</p><p>In that convention, some countries, such as Venezuela and Iran, wanted the cartels, mainly Saudi Arabia, to cut production to support oil prices. The reason is that these countries need high prices to break even budgetarily and cover their accumulated government spending.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4238877c035f8d5135d04d76488675f\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"370\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>On the other end of the debate is Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer, which opposes production cuts and is willing to let oil prices continue to fall.</p><p>In the end, OPEC was unable to agree on prices and left production unchanged.</p><p>Subsequently, crude oil prices plummeted rapidly, with Brent crude oil prices falling directly from US $110/barrel to US $70/barrel.</p><p>During the previous period from 2011 to 2014, due to the surge in demand, oil prices once hovered around US $100/barrel.</p><p>Of course, the drop in crude oil prices in 2014 was also inseparable from the increase in U.S. shale oil production. Some analysts said that as U.S. shale oil production increases, the strategy of maintaining production aims to maintain OPEC's market dominance.</p><p>Therefore, maintaining production is also OPEC's last resort decision. And as oil prices fall, shale oil production becomes less economical, which will also allow the United States to reduce the supply of shale oil. So keeping oil prices low might actually make sense for OPEC.</p><p>The United States at that time was similar to Iran at present-as the biggest uncertain party in crude oil supply, their participation will also put greater downward pressure on the crumbling crude oil price in possible scenarios.</p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will the 2014 oil price \"massacre\" repeat itself? It's getting more and more likely</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill the 2014 oil price \"massacre\" repeat itself? It's getting more and more likely\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-05 20:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Yu Xudong</p><p>As OPEC + failed to reach an agreement on increasing production, this once again tightened the nerves of the already nervous market.</p><p>On Friday, OPEC failed to break the deadlock within the organization for the second consecutive night. Delegates said that although most OPEC members supported the proposal to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day per month between August and December, it would also increase the broader The supply agreement is extended until the end of 2022, but the UAE remains firmly opposed. As the UAE still blocks the proposal to increase supply from being adopted, the parties will continue negotiations at 3pm local time in Vienna on July 5th (9pm Beijing time).</p><p>Just two days after the UAE refused to align with other OPEC members, Saudi Prince Abdul Aziz said in a Bloomberg TV interview late on Sunday that they must extend the production increase agreement, adding that the UAE has been isolated in OPEC. The Saudi prince's speech reflected the current tense situation within OPEC + and made it difficult for global markets to guess the future trend of crude oil prices.</p><p>Just hours ago, UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei once again rejected Saudi Arabia's proposed extension of the agreement and only supported increasing production in the short term. He has previously said that the UAE supports an unconditional increase in production, which is needed by the market, but the decision to extend the agreement until the end of 2022 is not necessary now.</p><p>It is worth noting that, according to Bloomberg, Foreign Minister Prince Abdul Aziz said that if the agreement is not extended, a back-up agreement will be reached, under which oil production will not increase in August and the rest of the year, which could cause oil prices to soar.</p><p>At the heart of the problem is the baseline. Production cuts or increases are measured against a benchmark-the higher this benchmark figure, the more oil a country is allowed to extract. The UAE wants to revise its benchmark before extending the cuts until the end of 2022 as it wants to produce more oil on top of its current benchmark quota.</p><p>The UAE's current benchmark is calculated from October 2018, when production was around 3.2 million barrels per day. Last year, that jumped to 3.8 million barrels per day. The UAE believes that the reference frame for the 2022 extension should not have started four years ago.</p><p>However, such a calculation is unlikely to be acceptable to Saudi Arabia and Russia, which refuse to recalculate the UAE's production target baseline and fear that concessions to one member will prompt everyone else in OPEC + to demand the same treatment, thereby undermining the already underway. Weeks of agreement negotiations.</p><p>Two outcomes: oil prices surge or complete collapse</p><p>Just like the differences within OPEC +, analysts from major institutions also have great differences on the future trend of international oil prices. This is mainly because the factors affecting the current oil price are indeed complicated.</p><p>On the one hand, the economic recovery of major economies, including the United States, is obvious, the demand side of the oil market is constantly improving, and OPEC + has maintained a trend of cautious production increase recently; On the other hand, Novel Coronavirus's mutant virus has begun to wreak havoc in some areas again, the job market in the United States and Europe is recovering slowly, and once the U.S. sanctions on Iran are lifted, Iran's oil production capacity will be greatly released, etc. These factors have inhibited the rise of international oil prices to a considerable extent. International oil prices are at a crossroads.</p><p>Data show that the international benchmark Brent crude oil futures were quoted at US $76.37 per barrel on Monday (July 5), rising more than 45% in the first half of this year; U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures closed at $75.27, up more than 50% in the first half of this year. Throughout June, Brent crude oil futures rose more than 8% and WTI crude oil prices rose more than 10% to their highest level since October 2018.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83e815454f7911baf0e973046b08481a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"137\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Although oil prices are still soaring in the trend, some analysts pointed out that the factors affecting the next oil price trend may be binary.</p><p>On the one hand, the UAE is forcing OPEC + into trouble-OPEC + will either accept the UAE's demands, or the risk of dissolving the cartel will occur without a production agreement.</p><p>If the former happens, oil prices will most likely rise sharply; If the latter happens, as Bloomberg said in an article, there will be a more dramatic situation-the oil price collapse on Thanksgiving Day in 2014 will be repeated, because OPEC + will be at risk of complete collapse, that is, all parties are fighting each other, and they can no longer form a united cartel, which leads to the oil price plummeting again since last year's crisis, and the nightmare repeats itself.</p><p>In the last year, it was the disagreement between Saudi Arabia and Russia that triggered a punitive price war that triggered the panic in March 2020.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that when asked if production could be increased without the involvement of the UAE, Abdulaziz said they cannot, and if OPEC collapses, every oil exporter will fight for itself, and after a brief price spike, oil will plummet again.</p><p>Abdulaziz's words also confirm that if the agreement goes bankrupt, there is a high probability that it will slip into the second situation.</p><p>At the same time, there is another potential event that will lead to more flooding of oil supplies, which will also knock oil prices down: once Iran reaches a nuclear deal with the Biden administration, it will return to the oil market, adding millions of barrels of oil supplies.</p><p>Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at Royal Bank of Canada, said a price war could be looming if the talks stalled, and if the talks end in complete discord, there is a risk of returning to a production situation for everyone for themselves, which could lead to oil price gains this year. A reversal of the trend. While they don't think this is the final possible outcome, they can't completely ignore it.</p><p>According to CNBC, Alejandro Barbajosa, Argus Media's vice president of crude oil business in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific region, said on Monday that in the very short term, the failure to reach an agreement obviously means that crude oil production will be very loose, and every country is very close to a price war. But he believes that OPEC + members will not reach the level of a real price war.</p><p>There was an oil price massacre in 2014</p><p>On Thanksgiving Day in 2014, a similar incident happened: OPEC's negotiations on production cuts broke down, but in the end the parties failed to reach an agreement, resulting in countries fighting independently on oil production, and then crude oil prices fell off a cliff.</p><p>On November 27th, 2014, OPEC, a cartel of oil producers including Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and Venezuela, held a large meeting in Vienna. Before the meeting, there was speculation that OPEC countries might cut their own oil production to support prices.</p><p>In that convention, some countries, such as Venezuela and Iran, wanted the cartels, mainly Saudi Arabia, to cut production to support oil prices. The reason is that these countries need high prices to break even budgetarily and cover their accumulated government spending.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4238877c035f8d5135d04d76488675f\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"370\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>On the other end of the debate is Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer, which opposes production cuts and is willing to let oil prices continue to fall.</p><p>In the end, OPEC was unable to agree on prices and left production unchanged.</p><p>Subsequently, crude oil prices plummeted rapidly, with Brent crude oil prices falling directly from US $110/barrel to US $70/barrel.</p><p>During the previous period from 2011 to 2014, due to the surge in demand, oil prices once hovered around US $100/barrel.</p><p>Of course, the drop in crude oil prices in 2014 was also inseparable from the increase in U.S. shale oil production. Some analysts said that as U.S. shale oil production increases, the strategy of maintaining production aims to maintain OPEC's market dominance.</p><p>Therefore, maintaining production is also OPEC's last resort decision. And as oil prices fall, shale oil production becomes less economical, which will also allow the United States to reduce the supply of shale oil. So keeping oil prices low might actually make sense for OPEC.</p><p>The United States at that time was similar to Iran at present-as the biggest uncertain party in crude oil supply, their participation will also put greater downward pressure on the crumbling crude oil price in possible scenarios.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3634608\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa4a2187b267c2b09c55779e0a8af4ab","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3634608","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1157720359","content_text":"作者:于旭东\n由于OPEC+未能就提高产量达成一致,这让本就紧张不已的市场,再次绷紧了神经。\n在上周五,OPEC+连续第二晚没有打破该组织内部的僵局,与会代表称,虽然多数OPEC +成员支持8月至12月期间每月增加40万桶/天产量的提议,同时将更广泛的供应协议期限延长至2022年底,但阿联酋仍坚决反对。因阿联酋依然阻止增加供应的提议通过,各方将于维也纳当地时间7月5日下午3点(北京时间晚上9点)继续谈判。\n就在阿联酋拒绝与OPEC+其他成员国保持一致的两天后,在周日晚些时候,沙特王子阿卜杜勒·阿齐兹在接受彭博电视采访时表示他们必须延长增产协议,并补充说阿联酋已经在OPEC+中被孤立。沙特王子的讲话,反映出目前OPEC+内部紧张的局势,并让全球市场难以猜测原油价格的未来走势。\n就在几个小时前,阿联酋能源部长Suhail al-Mazrouei再次拒绝了沙特提议的延长协议,只支持在短期增加产量。他在此前曾表示阿联酋支持无条件增加产量,这是市场需要的,但将协议延长至2022年底的决定并没有必要在现在采取。\n值得注意的是,据彭博,社特外交大臣阿卜杜勒·阿齐兹亲王表示,如果不延长协议,将达成一项后备协议,根据该协议,8月和今年剩余时间的石油产量不会增加,这可能会导致油价飙升。\n问题的核心是基线。减产或增产是根据一个基准来衡量的——这个基准数字越高,一个国家被允许开采的石油就越多。阿联酋希望在将削减延长至2022年底之前修改其基准,因为它想要在当前基准配额的基础上生产更多的石油。\n阿联酋目前的基准是从2018年10月开始计算的,当时的产量约为320万桶/天。去年,这一数字跃升至380万桶/天。阿联酋认为,2022年延期的参考框架不应该从四年前开始。\n然而,这样的计算方法对沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯来说是不可能接受的,它们拒绝重新计算阿联酋的产量目标基线,并担心向一个成员让步会促使OPEC+中的其他所有人要求同样的待遇,从而破坏已经进行了数周的协议谈判。\n两种结局:油价大涨或完全崩溃\n正像OPEC+内部的分歧一样,各大机构的分析师对于国际石油价格的未来走势也存在很大分歧。这主要是因为影响当前石油价格的因素确实纷繁复杂。\n一方面,包括美国在内的各主要经济体的经济复苏明显,石油市场的需求端在不断改善,近期OPEC+也一直维持着谨慎增产的态势;另一方面,新冠病毒的变异病毒又开始在一些地区肆虐,美欧的就业市场恢复缓慢,美国对伊朗的制裁一旦解除则伊朗的石油产能必将大幅释放等等,这些因素又在相当的程度上抑制了国际石油价格的上涨。国际石油价格站在了十字路口上。\n数据显示,国际基准布伦特原油期货周一(7月5日)报76.37美元/桶,今年上半年涨超45%;美国西德克萨斯中质(WTI)原油期货收报75.27美元,今年上半年涨超50%。整个6月,布伦特原油期货价格上涨逾8%,WTI原油价格上涨逾10%,达到2018年10月以来的最高水平。\n\n尽管油价在趋势上依然飙升,但有分析人士指出,接下来油价走势的影响因素可能是二元的。\n一方面,阿联酋正在迫使OPEC+陷入困境——OPEC+要么接受阿联酋的要求,要么在没有达成产量协议的情况下会发生解散卡特尔的风险。\n如果前者发生,油价大概率将会大涨;而后者发生的话,正如彭博在一篇文章里所说的,将会有一种更戏剧性的情况发生——2014年感恩节的油价崩溃将重新上演,因为OPEC+会有完全崩溃的风险,也就是各方各自混战,再也无法形成团结的卡特尔,并导致油价继去年的危机以来再次暴跌,噩梦再次重演。\n在去年,正是沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯之间的分歧引发了一场惩罚性的价格战,这才引发了2020年3月的恐慌。\n值得一提的是,当被问及是否可以在没有阿联酋参与的情况下提高产量时,阿卜杜勒阿齐兹表示他们不能,如果欧佩克崩溃,每个石油出口国都会为自己而战,在短暂的价格飙升之后,石油将再次暴跌。\n而阿卜杜勒阿齐兹的话,也印证了若协议破产,大概率会滑向第二种情况。\n与此同时,还有一个潜在事件会导致石油供应更加泛滥,这也将重挫油价:一旦伊朗与拜登政府达成核协议,就会重返石油市场,从而增加数百万桶石油的供应。\n加拿大皇家银行全球大宗商品策略主管Helima Croft表示,如果谈判陷入僵局,一场价格战可能迫在眉睫,如果谈判以完全的不和谐结束,就有可能回到人人为己的生产局面,这可能导致今年油价涨势的逆转。虽然他们不认为这是最后的可能结果,但也不能完全忽视它。\n据CNBC,阿格斯媒体负责中东和亚太地区原油业务的副总裁Alejandro Barbajosa周一表示,在非常短期内,协议无法达成显然意味着原油的生产会非常宽松,每个国家都非常接近价格战,但他认为OPEC+成员国不会达到真正价格战的水平。\n2014年曾发生过油价大屠杀\n在2014年的感恩节,发生过一件类似的事:OPEC关于减产的谈判发生破裂,但最终各方并未达成一致,导致各国在石油产量上各自为战,随后原油价格断崖式下跌。\n2014年11月27日,包括沙特、伊朗、伊拉克和委内瑞拉在内的石油生产国组成的卡特尔——OPEC在维也纳举行了一次大型会议。会议之前,有人猜测欧佩克国家可能会削减自己的石油产量以支撑价格。\n在那次大会中,委内瑞拉和伊朗等一些国家希望卡特尔(主要是沙特阿拉伯)削减产量以支撑石油价格。原因是这些国家需要高价才能在预算上达到收支平衡并支付他们累积的政府支出。\n\n争论的另一端是全球最大的产油国沙特阿拉伯,该国反对减产,并愿意让油价继续下跌。\n最终,OPEC无法就价格达成一致,并维持产量不变。\n随后,原油价格迅速暴跌,布伦特原油价格直接从110美元/桶跌至70美元/桶。\n而在此前的2011年至2014年期间,由于需求的激增,油价曾一度徘徊在100美元/桶左右。\n当然,2014年的那次原油价格下挫,和美国页岩油产量的增加也脱不了干系。有分析师表示,在美国页岩油产量增加的情况下,维持产量的策略旨在保持OPEC的市场主导地位。\n因此,维持产量也是OPEC不得已的决定。并且随着油价下跌,页岩油的生产也变得不那么经济了,这也将让美国减少页岩油的供应。因此,保持低油价实际上对欧佩克来说可能是有意义的。\n而当年的美国,也和目前的伊朗相似——作为原油供给最大的不确定方,它们的加入也将让可能情境下摇摇欲坠的原油价格承受更大的下跌压力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2780,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187747016,"gmtCreate":1623765397035,"gmtModify":1703818685217,"author":{"id":"3558180888833278","authorId":"3558180888833278","name":"开始你的表演","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/460cbdf90e5a9a66113bcd576b4ddd73","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558180888833278","authorIdStr":"3558180888833278"},"themes":[],"htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187747016","repostId":"187484719","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":187484719,"gmtCreate":1623762083131,"gmtModify":1703818488756,"author":{"id":"3497328009582754","authorId":"3497328009582754","name":"弹道美股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19b0ffc4ebe1fa04dbda983a4cf50bbf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3497328009582754","authorIdStr":"3497328009582754"},"themes":[],"title":"管你大盤如何,拓邦股份、和而泰走自己的行情!","htmlText":"最近有幾個訂閱貝瑞A股專欄《牛研星球》的朋友私信我們,要我們講講拓邦股份和和而泰的最新分析。這兩兄弟今年以來的業績表現差異太大了,拓邦股份今年以來漲了一倍多,和而泰漲了不到40%。我們是4月6號首發的《市值百億的智能控制器龍頭,是陷阱嗎?》,由於是付費內容,可能閱讀的人不多,但是股價在文章發佈後表現喜人,拓邦股份(代碼:002139)這兩個多月漲了50%多,和而泰(代碼:002402)差一點,漲了百分之十幾。兩者的市值目前已經很接近了。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002139\">$拓邦股份(002139)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002402\">$和而泰(002402)$</a> 我們發文以後,不出意料,拓邦和和而泰一季度的業績都可喜可賀,尤其是拓邦股份,一季度歸母扣非淨利同比暴增527%,我們在原文中以及在訂閱讀者羣裏說過拓邦股份的業務戰略是穩紮穩打型,而且研發投入很捨得。拓邦股份目前家電+電動工具收入佔比 80%,未來 3-5 年增長主賽道還是這兩個。因此,對拓邦股份來說,公司的戰略發展是隨着整個智能控制器行業的發展,以及在目前很低的市場集中度條件下不斷的提升市場份額。圖注:圖片源自網絡,侵權請聯繫刪除拓邦股份與和而泰在這兩個多月裏都迎來了密集的基金和券商調研,對投資者來說,也就意味着我們能獲取更多企業業務發展的信息。和而泰由於最早進入汽車電子控制器領域,而且去年以來獲得了70億tier 1廠商的訂單,所以市場的焦點主要在其汽車電子控制器的業務上,此外就是即將分拆上市的鋮昌科技的射頻芯片業務。相對來說,市場對於其原有的家電和電動工具業務的關注度沒有拓邦股份那麼高。總體上來說,由於汽車電","listText":"最近有幾個訂閱貝瑞A股專欄《牛研星球》的朋友私信我們,要我們講講拓邦股份和和而泰的最新分析。這兩兄弟今年以來的業績表現差異太大了,拓邦股份今年以來漲了一倍多,和而泰漲了不到40%。我們是4月6號首發的《市值百億的智能控制器龍頭,是陷阱嗎?》,由於是付費內容,可能閱讀的人不多,但是股價在文章發佈後表現喜人,拓邦股份(代碼:002139)這兩個多月漲了50%多,和而泰(代碼:002402)差一點,漲了百分之十幾。兩者的市值目前已經很接近了。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002139\">$拓邦股份(002139)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002402\">$和而泰(002402)$</a> 我們發文以後,不出意料,拓邦和和而泰一季度的業績都可喜可賀,尤其是拓邦股份,一季度歸母扣非淨利同比暴增527%,我們在原文中以及在訂閱讀者羣裏說過拓邦股份的業務戰略是穩紮穩打型,而且研發投入很捨得。拓邦股份目前家電+電動工具收入佔比 80%,未來 3-5 年增長主賽道還是這兩個。因此,對拓邦股份來說,公司的戰略發展是隨着整個智能控制器行業的發展,以及在目前很低的市場集中度條件下不斷的提升市場份額。圖注:圖片源自網絡,侵權請聯繫刪除拓邦股份與和而泰在這兩個多月裏都迎來了密集的基金和券商調研,對投資者來說,也就意味着我們能獲取更多企業業務發展的信息。和而泰由於最早進入汽車電子控制器領域,而且去年以來獲得了70億tier 1廠商的訂單,所以市場的焦點主要在其汽車電子控制器的業務上,此外就是即將分拆上市的鋮昌科技的射頻芯片業務。相對來說,市場對於其原有的家電和電動工具業務的關注度沒有拓邦股份那麼高。總體上來說,由於汽車電","text":"最近有幾個訂閱貝瑞A股專欄《牛研星球》的朋友私信我們,要我們講講拓邦股份和和而泰的最新分析。這兩兄弟今年以來的業績表現差異太大了,拓邦股份今年以來漲了一倍多,和而泰漲了不到40%。我們是4月6號首發的《市值百億的智能控制器龍頭,是陷阱嗎?》,由於是付費內容,可能閱讀的人不多,但是股價在文章發佈後表現喜人,拓邦股份(代碼:002139)這兩個多月漲了50%多,和而泰(代碼:002402)差一點,漲了百分之十幾。兩者的市值目前已經很接近了。$拓邦股份(002139)$ $和而泰(002402)$ 我們發文以後,不出意料,拓邦和和而泰一季度的業績都可喜可賀,尤其是拓邦股份,一季度歸母扣非淨利同比暴增527%,我們在原文中以及在訂閱讀者羣裏說過拓邦股份的業務戰略是穩紮穩打型,而且研發投入很捨得。拓邦股份目前家電+電動工具收入佔比 80%,未來 3-5 年增長主賽道還是這兩個。因此,對拓邦股份來說,公司的戰略發展是隨着整個智能控制器行業的發展,以及在目前很低的市場集中度條件下不斷的提升市場份額。圖注:圖片源自網絡,侵權請聯繫刪除拓邦股份與和而泰在這兩個多月裏都迎來了密集的基金和券商調研,對投資者來說,也就意味着我們能獲取更多企業業務發展的信息。和而泰由於最早進入汽車電子控制器領域,而且去年以來獲得了70億tier 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實時買賣通知和實倉分享,請訂閱我的空間站","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91abb11111e324bddca54fe00a5f9bff","width":"688","height":"317"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/115780960","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3010,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112690063,"gmtCreate":1622864125652,"gmtModify":1704192681250,"author":{"id":"3558180888833278","authorId":"3558180888833278","name":"开始你的表演","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/460cbdf90e5a9a66113bcd576b4ddd73","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558180888833278","authorIdStr":"3558180888833278"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"H","listText":"H","text":"H","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/112690063","repostId":"112814066","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":112814066,"gmtCreate":1622859146000,"gmtModify":1704192584384,"author":{"id":"3577852034187700","authorId":"3577852034187700","name":"经济观察报","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f64ac2aa784ef0f271ddeb45c7dc72bc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577852034187700","authorIdStr":"3577852034187700"},"themes":[],"title":"【深度】訴四家國企拖欠貨款41億 上海電氣83億財務黑洞的未解之疑","htmlText":"經濟觀察報 記者 張曉暉 一家持股40%的子公司,給母公司造成了83億元的利潤損失。這樣的故事正在上海電氣集團股份有限公司(601727.SH,以下簡稱“上海電氣”)身上發生。 2021年5月30日,“白馬股”上海電氣發佈《關於公司重大風險的提示公告》稱:公司合併報表範圍內的控股子公司——上海電氣通訊技術有限公司(以下簡稱“通訊公司”,上海電氣持有其40%的股權)應收賬款普遍逾期,存在大額應收賬款無法收回的風險。 截至本公告日(即5月30日),通訊公司應收賬款餘額爲86.72億元,賬面存貨餘額爲22.30億元,通訊公司在商業銀行的借款餘額爲12.52億元,公司向通訊公司提供的股東借款金額合計爲77.66億元,均存在重大損失風險。 經過上海電氣測算,在極端情況下,通訊公司可能對公司的歸母淨利潤造成83億元的損失(即上海電氣對通訊公司的股東權益損失和股東借款損失)。大約是上海電氣2020年淨利潤37.58億元的2.2倍。 消息披露之後,上海電氣股價在5月31日跌停,單日市值蒸發80億元,股價以4.61元收盤。 上海電氣的83億元財務爆雷背後,存在諸多疑點,比如通訊公司銷售的通信產品是什麼?爲什麼國企普遍拖欠貨款?爲什麼對通訊公司的股東借款能達到77.66億?通訊公司的內部控制是否出了問題?經濟觀察報近日來多次嘗試聯繫上海電氣董祕辦公室,但其年報披露的電話始終無法接通。 四家國企拖欠貨款41億元? 2021年5月31日,上海電氣披露了對四個拖欠貨款單位的訴訟。 通訊公司已向上海市第二中級人民法院、上海市楊浦區人民法院提起訴訟,請求判令被告北京首都創業集團有限公司(以下簡稱“首創集團”)、北京首都創業集團有限公司貿易分公司(以下簡稱“首創集團貿易公司”)、哈爾濱工業投資集團有限公司(以下簡稱“哈工投資”)、富申實業公司和南京長江電子信息產業集團有限公司(以下簡稱","listText":"經濟觀察報 記者 張曉暉 一家持股40%的子公司,給母公司造成了83億元的利潤損失。這樣的故事正在上海電氣集團股份有限公司(601727.SH,以下簡稱“上海電氣”)身上發生。 2021年5月30日,“白馬股”上海電氣發佈《關於公司重大風險的提示公告》稱:公司合併報表範圍內的控股子公司——上海電氣通訊技術有限公司(以下簡稱“通訊公司”,上海電氣持有其40%的股權)應收賬款普遍逾期,存在大額應收賬款無法收回的風險。 截至本公告日(即5月30日),通訊公司應收賬款餘額爲86.72億元,賬面存貨餘額爲22.30億元,通訊公司在商業銀行的借款餘額爲12.52億元,公司向通訊公司提供的股東借款金額合計爲77.66億元,均存在重大損失風險。 經過上海電氣測算,在極端情況下,通訊公司可能對公司的歸母淨利潤造成83億元的損失(即上海電氣對通訊公司的股東權益損失和股東借款損失)。大約是上海電氣2020年淨利潤37.58億元的2.2倍。 消息披露之後,上海電氣股價在5月31日跌停,單日市值蒸發80億元,股價以4.61元收盤。 上海電氣的83億元財務爆雷背後,存在諸多疑點,比如通訊公司銷售的通信產品是什麼?爲什麼國企普遍拖欠貨款?爲什麼對通訊公司的股東借款能達到77.66億?通訊公司的內部控制是否出了問題?經濟觀察報近日來多次嘗試聯繫上海電氣董祕辦公室,但其年報披露的電話始終無法接通。 四家國企拖欠貨款41億元? 2021年5月31日,上海電氣披露了對四個拖欠貨款單位的訴訟。 通訊公司已向上海市第二中級人民法院、上海市楊浦區人民法院提起訴訟,請求判令被告北京首都創業集團有限公司(以下簡稱“首創集團”)、北京首都創業集團有限公司貿易分公司(以下簡稱“首創集團貿易公司”)、哈爾濱工業投資集團有限公司(以下簡稱“哈工投資”)、富申實業公司和南京長江電子信息產業集團有限公司(以下簡稱","text":"經濟觀察報 記者 張曉暉 一家持股40%的子公司,給母公司造成了83億元的利潤損失。這樣的故事正在上海電氣集團股份有限公司(601727.SH,以下簡稱“上海電氣”)身上發生。 2021年5月30日,“白馬股”上海電氣發佈《關於公司重大風險的提示公告》稱:公司合併報表範圍內的控股子公司——上海電氣通訊技術有限公司(以下簡稱“通訊公司”,上海電氣持有其40%的股權)應收賬款普遍逾期,存在大額應收賬款無法收回的風險。 截至本公告日(即5月30日),通訊公司應收賬款餘額爲86.72億元,賬面存貨餘額爲22.30億元,通訊公司在商業銀行的借款餘額爲12.52億元,公司向通訊公司提供的股東借款金額合計爲77.66億元,均存在重大損失風險。 經過上海電氣測算,在極端情況下,通訊公司可能對公司的歸母淨利潤造成83億元的損失(即上海電氣對通訊公司的股東權益損失和股東借款損失)。大約是上海電氣2020年淨利潤37.58億元的2.2倍。 消息披露之後,上海電氣股價在5月31日跌停,單日市值蒸發80億元,股價以4.61元收盤。 上海電氣的83億元財務爆雷背後,存在諸多疑點,比如通訊公司銷售的通信產品是什麼?爲什麼國企普遍拖欠貨款?爲什麼對通訊公司的股東借款能達到77.66億?通訊公司的內部控制是否出了問題?經濟觀察報近日來多次嘗試聯繫上海電氣董祕辦公室,但其年報披露的電話始終無法接通。 四家國企拖欠貨款41億元? 2021年5月31日,上海電氣披露了對四個拖欠貨款單位的訴訟。 通訊公司已向上海市第二中級人民法院、上海市楊浦區人民法院提起訴訟,請求判令被告北京首都創業集團有限公司(以下簡稱“首創集團”)、北京首都創業集團有限公司貿易分公司(以下簡稱“首創集團貿易公司”)、哈爾濱工業投資集團有限公司(以下簡稱“哈工投資”)、富申實業公司和南京長江電子信息產業集團有限公司(以下簡稱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/112814066","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3316,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116919146,"gmtCreate":1622769391185,"gmtModify":1704190783392,"author":{"id":"3558180888833278","authorId":"3558180888833278","name":"开始你的表演","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/460cbdf90e5a9a66113bcd576b4ddd73","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558180888833278","authorIdStr":"3558180888833278"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"H","listText":"H","text":"H","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/116919146","repostId":"116910947","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":116910947,"gmtCreate":1622769319489,"gmtModify":1704190782098,"author":{"id":"3565845064413623","authorId":"3565845064413623","name":"深燃","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d25c1dc6447de5f1f0e48aa99b92b75b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565845064413623","authorIdStr":"3565845064413623"},"themes":[],"title":"閱文走出“舒適圈”","htmlText":"影視文化產業早已經“離不開”網文了。2015年《琅琊榜》《花千骨》網文改編劇橫空出世,讓在互聯網上累積近二十年的網絡文學井噴式釋放,從《全職高手》《慶餘年》再到《斗羅大陸》《贅婿》,這些大衆耳熟能詳的影視作品,幾乎都是由網絡文學改編而來。數年時間裏,行業對網文IP的認識也經歷幾次沉浮。從2015年到2018年,熱錢瘋狂涌入,缺乏規劃盲目囤積、“趕工式”開發、“賭博式”開發等失序亂象,使得IP在影視領域一度是“粗製濫造”的代名詞,好IP被消耗。從2019開始,行業迴歸冷靜,這之後,開發亂象漸少,IP改編劇爆款穩定輸出。但實際上,開發出一部成功的影視作品,還並不是IP的全部價值。有聲、動漫、影視、遊戲、周邊串起了IP全產業鏈開發的上下游,它們若能有機協同,就能建立起一個“小宇宙”,比如大衆耳熟能詳的迪士尼《米老鼠和唐老鴨》,不止出現在影視作品中,人們還能在遊戲、玩具、T恤、帽子、線下游樂園等載體上,看到米老鼠的元素和身影,迪士尼授權的產品已經覆蓋了大衆生活的方方面面。這就是IP可以帶來的影響力。但眼下,國內IP行業存在的問題是,即便認識到了IP的價值,有聲、動漫、影視、遊戲乃至衍生品,各領域單線程地爭取版權,環節封閉互不打通,缺乏全局性的規劃,導致IP衍生內容之間熱度不延續,“人設打架”、情節欠缺呼應、書粉劇粉漫粉爭端不斷,沒有聚集效應,更談不上聯動和促進。沒有規劃的開發,割裂開發仍是IP發揮最大價值的阻力。所以,儘管文娛行業多家頭部公司喊出“要做中國迪士尼”的口號,中國遲遲沒有出現“漫威宇宙”,也沒有一個“迪士尼”。但這不意味着中國不存在機會,也不意味着中國不能走出自己的道路。在6月3日,閱文集團發佈了名爲“大閱文”的新戰略。大會上,閱文集團首席執行官、騰訊集團副總裁兼騰訊影業首席執行官程武表示,“大閱文”是“基於騰訊新文創生態,以網絡文學爲基石,以IP開放爲驅動力,開放性地","listText":"影視文化產業早已經“離不開”網文了。2015年《琅琊榜》《花千骨》網文改編劇橫空出世,讓在互聯網上累積近二十年的網絡文學井噴式釋放,從《全職高手》《慶餘年》再到《斗羅大陸》《贅婿》,這些大衆耳熟能詳的影視作品,幾乎都是由網絡文學改編而來。數年時間裏,行業對網文IP的認識也經歷幾次沉浮。從2015年到2018年,熱錢瘋狂涌入,缺乏規劃盲目囤積、“趕工式”開發、“賭博式”開發等失序亂象,使得IP在影視領域一度是“粗製濫造”的代名詞,好IP被消耗。從2019開始,行業迴歸冷靜,這之後,開發亂象漸少,IP改編劇爆款穩定輸出。但實際上,開發出一部成功的影視作品,還並不是IP的全部價值。有聲、動漫、影視、遊戲、周邊串起了IP全產業鏈開發的上下游,它們若能有機協同,就能建立起一個“小宇宙”,比如大衆耳熟能詳的迪士尼《米老鼠和唐老鴨》,不止出現在影視作品中,人們還能在遊戲、玩具、T恤、帽子、線下游樂園等載體上,看到米老鼠的元素和身影,迪士尼授權的產品已經覆蓋了大衆生活的方方面面。這就是IP可以帶來的影響力。但眼下,國內IP行業存在的問題是,即便認識到了IP的價值,有聲、動漫、影視、遊戲乃至衍生品,各領域單線程地爭取版權,環節封閉互不打通,缺乏全局性的規劃,導致IP衍生內容之間熱度不延續,“人設打架”、情節欠缺呼應、書粉劇粉漫粉爭端不斷,沒有聚集效應,更談不上聯動和促進。沒有規劃的開發,割裂開發仍是IP發揮最大價值的阻力。所以,儘管文娛行業多家頭部公司喊出“要做中國迪士尼”的口號,中國遲遲沒有出現“漫威宇宙”,也沒有一個“迪士尼”。但這不意味着中國不存在機會,也不意味着中國不能走出自己的道路。在6月3日,閱文集團發佈了名爲“大閱文”的新戰略。大會上,閱文集團首席執行官、騰訊集團副總裁兼騰訊影業首席執行官程武表示,“大閱文”是“基於騰訊新文創生態,以網絡文學爲基石,以IP開放爲驅動力,開放性地","text":"影視文化產業早已經“離不開”網文了。2015年《琅琊榜》《花千骨》網文改編劇橫空出世,讓在互聯網上累積近二十年的網絡文學井噴式釋放,從《全職高手》《慶餘年》再到《斗羅大陸》《贅婿》,這些大衆耳熟能詳的影視作品,幾乎都是由網絡文學改編而來。數年時間裏,行業對網文IP的認識也經歷幾次沉浮。從2015年到2018年,熱錢瘋狂涌入,缺乏規劃盲目囤積、“趕工式”開發、“賭博式”開發等失序亂象,使得IP在影視領域一度是“粗製濫造”的代名詞,好IP被消耗。從2019開始,行業迴歸冷靜,這之後,開發亂象漸少,IP改編劇爆款穩定輸出。但實際上,開發出一部成功的影視作品,還並不是IP的全部價值。有聲、動漫、影視、遊戲、周邊串起了IP全產業鏈開發的上下游,它們若能有機協同,就能建立起一個“小宇宙”,比如大衆耳熟能詳的迪士尼《米老鼠和唐老鴨》,不止出現在影視作品中,人們還能在遊戲、玩具、T恤、帽子、線下游樂園等載體上,看到米老鼠的元素和身影,迪士尼授權的產品已經覆蓋了大衆生活的方方面面。這就是IP可以帶來的影響力。但眼下,國內IP行業存在的問題是,即便認識到了IP的價值,有聲、動漫、影視、遊戲乃至衍生品,各領域單線程地爭取版權,環節封閉互不打通,缺乏全局性的規劃,導致IP衍生內容之間熱度不延續,“人設打架”、情節欠缺呼應、書粉劇粉漫粉爭端不斷,沒有聚集效應,更談不上聯動和促進。沒有規劃的開發,割裂開發仍是IP發揮最大價值的阻力。所以,儘管文娛行業多家頭部公司喊出“要做中國迪士尼”的口號,中國遲遲沒有出現“漫威宇宙”,也沒有一個“迪士尼”。但這不意味着中國不存在機會,也不意味着中國不能走出自己的道路。在6月3日,閱文集團發佈了名爲“大閱文”的新戰略。大會上,閱文集團首席執行官、騰訊集團副總裁兼騰訊影業首席執行官程武表示,“大閱文”是“基於騰訊新文創生態,以網絡文學爲基石,以IP開放爲驅動力,開放性地","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c27281208949b4eb75e2cc9c4433c67c","width":"2500","height":"1667"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/116910947","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2116,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":119062972,"gmtCreate":1622509265896,"gmtModify":1704185274536,"author":{"id":"3558180888833278","authorId":"3558180888833278","name":"开始你的表演","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/460cbdf90e5a9a66113bcd576b4ddd73","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558180888833278","authorIdStr":"3558180888833278"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"h","listText":"h","text":"h","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":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