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我是梦幻金钱战士
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我是梦幻金钱战士
我是梦幻金钱战士
·
2023-03-24
👌
Fed official Bostic: rate hike's decision is by no means rash, there is "a lot of debate"
亚特兰大联邦储备银行行长Raphael Bostic称，本周在银行业危机期间加息25个基点的决定绝非轻率做出。“有很多辩论，这不是一个直截了当的决定，但最终，我们做出的结论是有明确的迹象表明银行体系稳
Fed official Bostic: rate hike's decision is by no means rash, there is "a lot of debate"
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我是梦幻金钱战士
我是梦幻金钱战士
·
2023-03-24
👌
Fed official Bostic: rate hike's decision is by no means rash, there is "a lot of debate"
亚特兰大联邦储备银行行长Raphael Bostic称，本周在银行业危机期间加息25个基点的决定绝非轻率做出。“有很多辩论，这不是一个直截了当的决定，但最终，我们做出的结论是有明确的迹象表明银行体系稳
Fed official Bostic: rate hike's decision is by no means rash, there is "a lot of debate"
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我是梦幻金钱战士
我是梦幻金钱战士
·
2023-03-24
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Sorry, this post has been deleted
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我是梦幻金钱战士
我是梦幻金钱战士
·
2023-03-24
👌
The initial value of U.S. durable goods orders in February was-1% month-on-month, the largest drop in two years
尽管核心资本货物订单有所增加，但这些数据表明，美联储一年来的大举加息已经抑制了投资计划。在经济不确定性上升和企业利润增长放缓的情况下，这种情况可能进一步恶化。由于对客机和新车的需求减少，美国2月份制造
The initial value of U.S. durable goods orders in February was-1% month-on-month, the largest drop in two years
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我是梦幻金钱战士
我是梦幻金钱战士
·
2023-03-24
👌
Banking crisis: Where will the next dominoes fall?
过去两周，危机突然升温，伴随着熊市，标准普尔500指数再次贬值，在本文中将主要关注银行系统和银行的崩溃。但银行在经济中扮演着重要角色，而陷入困境的银行可能会成为危机的负面催化剂。01概述基本上有两个主
Banking crisis: Where will the next dominoes fall?
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我是梦幻金钱战士
我是梦幻金钱战士
·
2023-03-20
👌
Credit Suisse's acquisition of the century, Saudi Arabia and investors took advantage of it
在过去的两个周末里，美国和欧洲金融圈发生的事情可以拍出一部美剧。电视剧第一幕以硅谷银行爆雷开始，危机带来的恐慌情绪引起美国中小银行股的大抛售，这是08年金融危机后未曾出现过的恐慌现象，最后美联储紧急出
Credit Suisse's acquisition of the century, Saudi Arabia and investors took advantage of it
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我是梦幻金钱战士
我是梦幻金钱战士
·
2023-03-20
👌
Credit Suisse's acquisition of the century, Saudi Arabia and investors took advantage of it
在过去的两个周末里，美国和欧洲金融圈发生的事情可以拍出一部美剧。电视剧第一幕以硅谷银行爆雷开始，危机带来的恐慌情绪引起美国中小银行股的大抛售，这是08年金融危机后未曾出现过的恐慌现象，最后美联储紧急出
Credit Suisse's acquisition of the century, Saudi Arabia and investors took advantage of it
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我是梦幻金钱战士
我是梦幻金钱战士
·
2023-03-18
👌
UBS allegedly seeks support from Swiss authorities for any deal with Credit Suisse
3月18日，据知情人士透露，瑞银集团要求瑞士政府在收购瑞信集团时提供支持。瑞银正在讨论政府将在任何交易中承担某些法律费用或其他具体损失的情况。知情人士称，一种可能的情况是，瑞银将收购瑞信，以获得其财富
UBS allegedly seeks support from Swiss authorities for any deal with Credit Suisse
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我是梦幻金钱战士
我是梦幻金钱战士
·
2023-03-16
👌
Soul Torture: Will a "safe" American Treasury Bond be the tipping point of the next crisis?
美国国债变成了“有毒资产”。
Soul Torture: Will a "safe" American Treasury Bond be the tipping point of the next crisis?
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我是梦幻金钱战士
我是梦幻金钱战士
·
2023-03-16
👌👌
What is the outcome of the Credit Suisse crisis? JPMorgan envisions three scenarios
瑞信的危机最可能以该公司被对手瑞银收购告终。
What is the outcome of the Credit Suisse crisis? JPMorgan envisions three scenarios
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He was referring to the aggressive rate hike of the Federal Reserve under the leadership of then-Federal Reserve Chairman Volcker, which to some extent triggered a sharp economic downturn.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed official Bostic: rate hike's decision is by no means rash, there is \"a lot of debate\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed official Bostic: rate hike's decision is by no means rash, there is \"a lot of debate\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-24 22:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Raphael Bostic, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, said this week's decision to rate hike 25 basis points amid the banking crisis was by no means taken lightly.</p><p>\"There was a lot of debate and it wasn't a straightforward decision, but ultimately, we came to the conclusion that there were clear signs that the banking system was solid and resilient,\" Bostic said Friday. \"Against this backdrop, inflation remains too high.\"</p><p>Bostic said,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>The collapse of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) less than two weeks before the meeting caused a lot of uncertainty, and some policymakers wanted to wait and see instead of rate hike.</p><p>Bostic said: \"On the weekend before the meeting, we didn't think the situation would get worse. I agree with this view, which makes me believe that we can cope with it.\"</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told reporters at a news conference after Wednesday's policy meeting that a pause in rate hike had been considered in the days leading up to the meeting, but during the meeting, consensus on rate hike was strong. Powell also emphasized that the U.S. banking system is \"solid and resilient.\"</p><p>Bostic reiterated Powell's judgment and said that inflation is too high, so the economy needs to slow down.</p><p>\"There is no recession in my base scenario,\" Bostic said. But if the U.S. economy falls into recession, \"I hope it will be quite different from the early 1980s,\" he added. He was referring to the aggressive rate hike of the Federal Reserve under the leadership of then-Federal Reserve Chairman Volcker, which to some extent triggered a sharp economic downturn.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2023-03-24/doc-imymyuvx9706264.shtml\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a1de7aced7748879f251930783a3cb1","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2023-03-24/doc-imymyuvx9706264.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2321111896","content_text":"亚特兰大联邦储备银行行长Raphael Bostic称，本周在银行业危机期间加息25个基点的决定绝非轻率做出。“有很多辩论，这不是一个直截了当的决定，但最终，我们做出的结论是有明确的迹象表明银行体系稳固且坚韧，” Bostic周五表示。“在这种背景下，通胀仍然过高。 ”Bostic表示，硅谷银行在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）开会不到两周之前倒闭，造成了很多不确定性，一些决策者希望观望而不是加息。Bostic说：“在会议前的周末我们没有认为情况会变得更糟，我认同这个看法，这让我相信我们可以应付。”美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在周三政策会议后的新闻发布会上对记者表示，会议前几天已经考虑过暂停加息，但在会议期间，大家对加息的共识很强。鲍威尔也强调美国银行体系“稳固且坚韧”。Bostic重申了鲍威尔的这种判断，并表示通胀太高，因此需要让经济放缓。“在我的基本情景里面没有经济衰退，”Bostic说。但是如果美国经济陷入衰退，“我希望会与1980年代初截然不同，” 他补充道。他指的是在时任美联储主席沃尔克的领导下，美联储激进加息，一定程度上引发了经济急剧下滑。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SPY":1,"UDOW":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"QLD":0.6,".IXIC":1,"SDS":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"QID":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,".DJI":1,"PSQ":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SH":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2686,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943700305,"gmtCreate":1679668323007,"gmtModify":1679668326753,"author":{"id":"4094983188358330","authorId":"4094983188358330","name":"我是梦幻金钱战士","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/99cba128d11b8be74b1f95636cd22ed7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094983188358330","authorIdStr":"4094983188358330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943700305","repostId":"2321111896","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2321111896","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1679666666,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2321111896?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-24 22:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Fed official Bostic: rate hike's decision is by no means rash, there is \"a lot of debate\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2321111896","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"亚特兰大联邦储备银行行长Raphael Bostic称，本周在银行业危机期间加息25个基点的决定绝非轻率做出。“有很多辩论，这不是一个直截了当的决定，但最终，我们做出的结论是有明确的迹象表明银行体系稳","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Raphael Bostic, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, said this week's decision to rate hike 25 basis points amid the banking crisis was by no means taken lightly.</p><p>\"There was a lot of debate and it wasn't a straightforward decision, but ultimately, we came to the conclusion that there were clear signs that the banking system was solid and resilient,\" Bostic said Friday. \"Against this backdrop, inflation remains too high.\"</p><p>Bostic said,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>The collapse of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) less than two weeks before the meeting caused a lot of uncertainty, and some policymakers wanted to wait and see instead of rate hike.</p><p>Bostic said: \"On the weekend before the meeting, we didn't think the situation would get worse. I agree with this view, which makes me believe that we can cope with it.\"</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told reporters at a news conference after Wednesday's policy meeting that a pause in rate hike had been considered in the days leading up to the meeting, but during the meeting, consensus on rate hike was strong. Powell also emphasized that the U.S. banking system is \"solid and resilient.\"</p><p>Bostic reiterated Powell's judgment and said that inflation is too high, so the economy needs to slow down.</p><p>\"There is no recession in my base scenario,\" Bostic said. But if the U.S. economy falls into recession, \"I hope it will be quite different from the early 1980s,\" he added. He was referring to the aggressive rate hike of the Federal Reserve under the leadership of then-Federal Reserve Chairman Volcker, which to some extent triggered a sharp economic downturn.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed official Bostic: rate hike's decision is by no means rash, there is \"a lot of debate\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed official Bostic: rate hike's decision is by no means rash, there is \"a lot of debate\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-24 22:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Raphael Bostic, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, said this week's decision to rate hike 25 basis points amid the banking crisis was by no means taken lightly.</p><p>\"There was a lot of debate and it wasn't a straightforward decision, but ultimately, we came to the conclusion that there were clear signs that the banking system was solid and resilient,\" Bostic said Friday. \"Against this backdrop, inflation remains too high.\"</p><p>Bostic said,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>The collapse of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) less than two weeks before the meeting caused a lot of uncertainty, and some policymakers wanted to wait and see instead of rate hike.</p><p>Bostic said: \"On the weekend before the meeting, we didn't think the situation would get worse. I agree with this view, which makes me believe that we can cope with it.\"</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told reporters at a news conference after Wednesday's policy meeting that a pause in rate hike had been considered in the days leading up to the meeting, but during the meeting, consensus on rate hike was strong. Powell also emphasized that the U.S. banking system is \"solid and resilient.\"</p><p>Bostic reiterated Powell's judgment and said that inflation is too high, so the economy needs to slow down.</p><p>\"There is no recession in my base scenario,\" Bostic said. But if the U.S. economy falls into recession, \"I hope it will be quite different from the early 1980s,\" he added. He was referring to the aggressive rate hike of the Federal Reserve under the leadership of then-Federal Reserve Chairman Volcker, which to some extent triggered a sharp economic downturn.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2023-03-24/doc-imymyuvx9706264.shtml\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a1de7aced7748879f251930783a3cb1","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2023-03-24/doc-imymyuvx9706264.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2321111896","content_text":"亚特兰大联邦储备银行行长Raphael Bostic称，本周在银行业危机期间加息25个基点的决定绝非轻率做出。“有很多辩论，这不是一个直截了当的决定，但最终，我们做出的结论是有明确的迹象表明银行体系稳固且坚韧，” Bostic周五表示。“在这种背景下，通胀仍然过高。 ”Bostic表示，硅谷银行在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）开会不到两周之前倒闭，造成了很多不确定性，一些决策者希望观望而不是加息。Bostic说：“在会议前的周末我们没有认为情况会变得更糟，我认同这个看法，这让我相信我们可以应付。”美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在周三政策会议后的新闻发布会上对记者表示，会议前几天已经考虑过暂停加息，但在会议期间，大家对加息的共识很强。鲍威尔也强调美国银行体系“稳固且坚韧”。Bostic重申了鲍威尔的这种判断，并表示通胀太高，因此需要让经济放缓。“在我的基本情景里面没有经济衰退，”Bostic说。但是如果美国经济陷入衰退，“我希望会与1980年代初截然不同，” 他补充道。他指的是在时任美联储主席沃尔克的领导下，美联储激进加息，一定程度上引发了经济急剧下滑。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SPY":1,"UDOW":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"QLD":0.6,".IXIC":1,"SDS":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"QID":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,".DJI":1,"PSQ":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SH":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2611,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943700960,"gmtCreate":1679668310450,"gmtModify":1679668314077,"author":{"id":"4094983188358330","authorId":"4094983188358330","name":"我是梦幻金钱战士","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/99cba128d11b8be74b1f95636cd22ed7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094983188358330","authorIdStr":"4094983188358330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943700960","repostId":"1161966319","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2862,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943700059,"gmtCreate":1679668300972,"gmtModify":1679668304919,"author":{"id":"4094983188358330","authorId":"4094983188358330","name":"我是梦幻金钱战士","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/99cba128d11b8be74b1f95636cd22ed7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094983188358330","authorIdStr":"4094983188358330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943700059","repostId":"1161966319","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161966319","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1679667723,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161966319?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-24 22:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The initial value of U.S. durable goods orders in February was-1% month-on-month, the largest drop in two years","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161966319","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"尽管核心资本货物订单有所增加，但这些数据表明，美联储一年来的大举加息已经抑制了投资计划。在经济不确定性上升和企业利润增长放缓的情况下，这种情况可能进一步恶化。由于对客机和新车的需求减少，美国2月份制造","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Despite an increase in core capital goods orders, the data suggests a year of aggressive rate hike by the Federal Reserve has dampened investment plans. This could worsen amid rising economic uncertainty and slowing corporate profit growth.</b>U.S. manufacturing orders continued to decline in February as demand for passenger aircraft and new cars decreased.</p><p>On Friday, March 24, the U.S. Department of Commerce released data showing that the initial value of U.S. durable goods orders in February was-1% month-on-month, lower than market expectations of 0.2%, the largest decline since February 2021, but compared with the previous value.-4.5% rebounded sharply. Analysts had expected a modest rebound in February data after January's data plunged.</p><p>Durable goods are products like cars, appliances, and computers that can last at least three years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/702d3d5d4f0e3aad88b4f95fc2171aa0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Core durable goods orders excluding transportation rose 0% from the initial month-on-month value, which was lower than the previous value revised upwards of 0.4% and the largest increase since March 2022, which was revised downwards to-0.4%. This figure is used to help calculate equipment investment in the government's GDP report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db82bf213ec2018c112a0835fc37f07c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Additionally, after excluding the value of aircraft non-defense core capital goods orders, growth slowed to 0.2% in February after rising 0.8% in January, but remained higher than the-0.2% expected.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/311d5f7fa7b5683c9da0b98494a8a1ee\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Despite an increase in core capital goods orders, the data suggests a year of aggressive rate hike by the Federal Reserve has dampened investment plans. This could worsen amid rising economic uncertainty and slowing corporate profit growth.</p><p>Except for the increase in core capital goods orders, the rest of the orders were largely weak. Orders for computers, transportation equipment, machinery and communications equipment all declined. But corporate investment rose for the second consecutive month, indicating that the industrial side of the economy is still growing.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The initial value of U.S. durable goods orders in February was-1% month-on-month, the largest drop in two years</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe initial value of U.S. durable goods orders in February was-1% month-on-month, the largest drop in two years\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-24 22:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Despite an increase in core capital goods orders, the data suggests a year of aggressive rate hike by the Federal Reserve has dampened investment plans. This could worsen amid rising economic uncertainty and slowing corporate profit growth.</b>U.S. manufacturing orders continued to decline in February as demand for passenger aircraft and new cars decreased.</p><p>On Friday, March 24, the U.S. Department of Commerce released data showing that the initial value of U.S. durable goods orders in February was-1% month-on-month, lower than market expectations of 0.2%, the largest decline since February 2021, but compared with the previous value.-4.5% rebounded sharply. Analysts had expected a modest rebound in February data after January's data plunged.</p><p>Durable goods are products like cars, appliances, and computers that can last at least three years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/702d3d5d4f0e3aad88b4f95fc2171aa0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Core durable goods orders excluding transportation rose 0% from the initial month-on-month value, which was lower than the previous value revised upwards of 0.4% and the largest increase since March 2022, which was revised downwards to-0.4%. This figure is used to help calculate equipment investment in the government's GDP report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db82bf213ec2018c112a0835fc37f07c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Additionally, after excluding the value of aircraft non-defense core capital goods orders, growth slowed to 0.2% in February after rising 0.8% in January, but remained higher than the-0.2% expected.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/311d5f7fa7b5683c9da0b98494a8a1ee\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Despite an increase in core capital goods orders, the data suggests a year of aggressive rate hike by the Federal Reserve has dampened investment plans. This could worsen amid rising economic uncertainty and slowing corporate profit growth.</p><p>Except for the increase in core capital goods orders, the rest of the orders were largely weak. Orders for computers, transportation equipment, machinery and communications equipment all declined. But corporate investment rose for the second consecutive month, indicating that the industrial side of the economy is still growing.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3684848\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3684848","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161966319","content_text":"尽管核心资本货物订单有所增加，但这些数据表明，美联储一年来的大举加息已经抑制了投资计划。在经济不确定性上升和企业利润增长放缓的情况下，这种情况可能进一步恶化。由于对客机和新车的需求减少，美国2月份制造业订单继续下滑。3月24日周五，美国商务部公布数据显示，美国2月耐用品订单环比初值-1%，低于市场预期的0.2%，是自2021年2月以来的最大降幅，但相比前值的-4.5%大幅回升。在1月份的数据暴跌之后，分析师们原本预计2月的数据将温和反弹。耐用品是指像汽车、电器和电脑这样至少可以使用三年的产品。不包括运输的核心耐用品订单环比初值增长0%，低于上修后的前值0.4%，也是自2022年3月以来的最大涨幅，前值下修为-0.4%。这一数字用于帮助计算政府GDP报告中的设备投资。此外，扣除飞机非国防核心资本货物订单价值在1月增长0.8%后，2月份增幅放缓至0.2%，但仍高于预期的-0.2%。尽管核心资本货物订单有所增加，但这些数据表明，美联储一年来的大举加息已经抑制了投资计划。在经济不确定性上升和企业利润增长放缓的情况下，这种情况可能进一步恶化。除了核心资本货物订单出现增长外，其余订单在很大程度上都比较疲软。电脑、运输设备、机械和通讯设备的订单量均有所下降。但企业投资连续第二个月上升，表明经济的工业方面仍在增长。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3159,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943477426,"gmtCreate":1679668287466,"gmtModify":1679668291458,"author":{"id":"4094983188358330","authorId":"4094983188358330","name":"我是梦幻金钱战士","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/99cba128d11b8be74b1f95636cd22ed7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094983188358330","authorIdStr":"4094983188358330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943477426","repostId":"2321098115","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2321098115","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1679668395,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2321098115?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-24 22:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Banking crisis: Where will the next dominoes fall?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2321098115","media":"美股研究社","summary":"过去两周，危机突然升温，伴随着熊市，标准普尔500指数再次贬值，在本文中将主要关注银行系统和银行的崩溃。但银行在经济中扮演着重要角色，而陷入困境的银行可能会成为危机的负面催化剂。01概述基本上有两个主","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>In the past two weeks, the crisis has suddenly heated up, accompanied by a bear market, and the S&P 500 has lost its value again. In this article, we will mainly focus on the collapse of the banking system and banks. But banks play an important role in the economy, and struggling banks can be a negative catalyst for a crisis.</p><p>01</p><p>overview</p><p>There are basically two main news stories. On the one hand, Swiss<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>The group is being surpassed by UBS; On the other hand, several American banks are in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Waiting for the bankruptcy facilitated by competitors, officials and the Federal Reserve intervened.</p><p>Let's start with Credit Suisse. The Swiss bank is in trouble is no surprise, as reports of the company's troubles have been around months ago. However, in recent days, the situation has suddenly become more dramatic. It was already reported last week that the Swiss National Bank and FINMA (Swiss financial regulator) would provide Credit Suisse with an emergency loan of 50 billion Swiss francs (if necessary). On the weekend-something that always happens on weekends when markets are closed-UBS agreed to buy Credit Suisse for $3.25 billion, about half its last share price but well above the initial $1 billion offer, which Credit Suisse rejected.</p><p>But it's not just Credit Suisse that's struggling-in the previous week,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>Bankruptcy, and the U.S. banking crisis reached a temporary climax. It's perhaps not surprising to see Credit Suisse in trouble, as reports of the company's troubles have been published months ago, but certainly no one could have foreseen bank failures in the United States (although bank failures are one of the events that can happen in every crisis and bear market).</p><p>Just like in similar situations in the past, we saw the \"classic\" reaction. The Fed responded by providing additional liquidity to banks by using the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP). Another classic pattern that emerges in this context is the official public announcement of how strong and secure the banking system is, and one doesn't have to worry.</p><p>Last Sunday, Janet Yellen, Jerome Powell and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Martin Gruenberg informed the public that Silicon Valley Bank depositors would get all their funds on Monday, a move that also reassured markets. We have seen similar moves in past crises. As a German, I especially remember German officials making similar statements in 2008 and assuring the German public that their deposits were safe, just like the hell after the collapse of Lehman Brothers.</p><p>While these reactions are doing what they should-restoring confidence in the banking system and financial markets-they are sometimes short-term and a warning sign of what's to come. In well-functioning markets, where market participants are confident (or even euphoric) about the prospects or safety of banks, such statements are unnecessary. It's also not a good sign that the Fed has to intervene, although it sometimes works-like in 2020, when plenty of liquidity was provided. However, in the medium term (perhaps three years from now), the unintended consequences of pumping huge sums of money into the market may become apparent (as speculating with that money has led to bad decisions, risky bets, and now defaults and bank failures).</p><p>02</p><p>Question: Trust and confidence</p><p>A huge problem for banks (and similar institutions) is the role trust and confidence play-especially as many people (including investors) misunderstand the importance of trust and confidence. While trust is crucial when it comes to whether people will deposit or withdraw money from the bank, it is difficult to measure confidence.</p><p>This is especially problematic because the situation can change in a matter of days: panic can quickly spread across the country (or the world), and last week depositors who trusted banks would suddenly panic and try to withdraw their funds. So just looking at the balance sheet is not enough because a bank run and people's loss of trust will cause many banks to collapse. Several institutions collapsed, and several major news headlines and coverage on state television may be enough to spark panic.</p><p>A recent study showed the fragility of the U.S. banking system and how many banks would become technically insolvent in the event of a bank run. If we assume a worst-case scenario where 100% of uninsured deposits are withdrawn, then more than 1,600 U.S. banks will fail (4,237 banks, according to FDIC data from 2021). But even assuming that only 30% of uninsured deposits are withdrawn, 106 banks will fail.</p><p>The problem is that even well-capitalized banks can suddenly face major trouble when customers (for whatever reason) lose confidence and start withdrawing cash. For a big turmoil in the banking system, banks don't necessarily collapse completely. Withdrawing funds creates problems earlier.</p><p>03</p><p>Problem: Non-performing assets</p><p>While bank runs happen from time to time and can force banks into submission (which they have happened in the past few decades), they are not the main reason for bank failures. Bank failures due to bank runs were more common in the first half of the 20th century (especially during the Great Depression, when thousands of banks failed), and systems were put in place to prevent bank runs after the Great Depression.</p><p>Today, banks often fail because they have bad assets or the wrong assets at the wrong time (and often ignore or violate risk management principles). Now, with the sharp rise in interest rates over the past few quarters, there may be the wrong loan on the bank's books. Some banks-especially in Europe-may hold (close to) zero-rate government bonds in their portfolios, and as interest rates rise, banks are forced to pay higher interest rates to depositors, which will pose problems over time.</p><p>The second typical problem is that asset prices are falling, and banks have so-called toxic assets on their books. During the Great Financial Crisis, it was subprime mortgages (or financial products based on subprime mortgages)-assets (or: loans) that became bad loans because banks lent money to people who could not afford to repay their mortgages. Furthermore, the asset may be completely mispriced and its value is declining-this usually happens after a bubble, because banks may be buying stocks (or other traded assets) at the wrong time at a price that exceeds the intrinsic value of the asset.</p><p>04</p><p>Complex and interrelated systems</p><p>So far, we have studied different risks in isolation. But these events rarely occur alone. They usually reinforce each other, and a ripple reaction (or domino effect) can quickly occur within the financial system, leading to a banking crisis. The World Bank writes:</p><p>A (systemic) banking crisis occurs when many banks in a country are simultaneously facing severe solvency or liquidity problems-either because all banks have been hit by the same external shock, or because the failure of one bank or group of banks spreads to other banks in the system. More specifically, a systemic banking crisis refers to a large number of defaults in a country's corporate and financial sectors,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">Financial institution</a>And it is difficult for enterprises to repay contracts on time. It may seem obvious that several banks in a country can fail at the same time because they all purchased similar assets that end up being worth much less than previously estimated, but the spread of bank failures across the banking system was not so obvious initially. When a non-financial business fails, there is some impact on both suppliers and customers, and there is some degree of disruption in the supply chain. But it doesn't trigger a ripple effect like a bank failure. First, the erosion of trust replaced by panic will quickly spread across the banking industry. When one (or several) banks start to fail, you will start questioning whether your own bank is safe and may take divestment actions. Secondly, because banks lend to each other and buy assets issued by other banks, there are countless connections between them, so the problem will quickly spread across the banking system.</p><p>The banking system, the stock market, and the economy are all complex non-linear systems, thousands of nodes and links intertwined in a complex system, I don't know what to expect, but I can see what to expect in a complex non-linear system, and knowing what to expect is enough to make me very cautious. With so many unanswered questions, analysts still don't think now is the time to buy bank stocks.</p><p>Currently, small regional banks in particular have been hit hard, in some cases losing 50% or more of their value in a very short period of time.</p><p>Now, one might ask whether the crisis has reached an advanced stage and whether we should start investing. Let's be honest: No! The answer remains: not yet! Despite the problems starting to emerge, analysts don't think we're near the bottom-neither in bank stocks nor the stock market as a whole. Some banks may already appear cheap-especially smaller regional banks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f564a259d8bbaa50f3f576f3c367cc4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p>Although some banks in the United States-including U.S. Bancorp,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>And Bank of America-down 20% or more, but their Canadian peers have fared a little better so far.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bb7c2b23c5266bcc582c6c903c23129\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p>05</p><p>conclusion</p><p>Banks are in trouble and some are starting to fail, which is just another fall of domino cards that, regrettably, fit into the usual development pattern of financial crises. Recessions don't always go hand in hand with banking crises, but bank failures are never a good sign. This is just the next step after early warning signs such as an inversion of the yield curve or a decline in the number of new housing permits. Of course, I could be wrong, and we can always take the opposite view (there was a surge in housing permits in February 2023, which doesn't fit the crisis narrative).</p><p>I don't know if we're going to see a crisis similar to 2008, and I don't know what role equally overvalued real estate might play in this crisis. However, so far, many signs hint at a severe recession in the financial and economic system, and I completely agree with Ray Dalio:</p><p>I think this is a very classic event of the very classic bubble bursting part of the short term debt cycle (lasting about 7 years, or maybe 3 years or so) in which tightening money to curb credit growth and inflation causes a self-reinforcing debt-credit contraction that continues through a domino-like contagion until banks create easy money, negating the debt-credit contraction, thus generating more new credit and debt, planting the seeds for the next big debt problem until these short term cycles accumulate debt assets and liabilities to an unsustainable point and the whole thing collapses in debt restructuring and debt monetization (usually happening about every 75 years, about 25 years or so).</body></html></p>","source":"mgyjs","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Banking crisis: Where will the next dominoes fall?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBanking crisis: Where will the next dominoes fall?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">美股研究社</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-24 22:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>In the past two weeks, the crisis has suddenly heated up, accompanied by a bear market, and the S&P 500 has lost its value again. In this article, we will mainly focus on the collapse of the banking system and banks. But banks play an important role in the economy, and struggling banks can be a negative catalyst for a crisis.</p><p>01</p><p>overview</p><p>There are basically two main news stories. On the one hand, Swiss<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>The group is being surpassed by UBS; On the other hand, several American banks are in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Waiting for the bankruptcy facilitated by competitors, officials and the Federal Reserve intervened.</p><p>Let's start with Credit Suisse. The Swiss bank is in trouble is no surprise, as reports of the company's troubles have been around months ago. However, in recent days, the situation has suddenly become more dramatic. It was already reported last week that the Swiss National Bank and FINMA (Swiss financial regulator) would provide Credit Suisse with an emergency loan of 50 billion Swiss francs (if necessary). On the weekend-something that always happens on weekends when markets are closed-UBS agreed to buy Credit Suisse for $3.25 billion, about half its last share price but well above the initial $1 billion offer, which Credit Suisse rejected.</p><p>But it's not just Credit Suisse that's struggling-in the previous week,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>Bankruptcy, and the U.S. banking crisis reached a temporary climax. It's perhaps not surprising to see Credit Suisse in trouble, as reports of the company's troubles have been published months ago, but certainly no one could have foreseen bank failures in the United States (although bank failures are one of the events that can happen in every crisis and bear market).</p><p>Just like in similar situations in the past, we saw the \"classic\" reaction. The Fed responded by providing additional liquidity to banks by using the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP). Another classic pattern that emerges in this context is the official public announcement of how strong and secure the banking system is, and one doesn't have to worry.</p><p>Last Sunday, Janet Yellen, Jerome Powell and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Martin Gruenberg informed the public that Silicon Valley Bank depositors would get all their funds on Monday, a move that also reassured markets. We have seen similar moves in past crises. As a German, I especially remember German officials making similar statements in 2008 and assuring the German public that their deposits were safe, just like the hell after the collapse of Lehman Brothers.</p><p>While these reactions are doing what they should-restoring confidence in the banking system and financial markets-they are sometimes short-term and a warning sign of what's to come. In well-functioning markets, where market participants are confident (or even euphoric) about the prospects or safety of banks, such statements are unnecessary. It's also not a good sign that the Fed has to intervene, although it sometimes works-like in 2020, when plenty of liquidity was provided. However, in the medium term (perhaps three years from now), the unintended consequences of pumping huge sums of money into the market may become apparent (as speculating with that money has led to bad decisions, risky bets, and now defaults and bank failures).</p><p>02</p><p>Question: Trust and confidence</p><p>A huge problem for banks (and similar institutions) is the role trust and confidence play-especially as many people (including investors) misunderstand the importance of trust and confidence. While trust is crucial when it comes to whether people will deposit or withdraw money from the bank, it is difficult to measure confidence.</p><p>This is especially problematic because the situation can change in a matter of days: panic can quickly spread across the country (or the world), and last week depositors who trusted banks would suddenly panic and try to withdraw their funds. So just looking at the balance sheet is not enough because a bank run and people's loss of trust will cause many banks to collapse. Several institutions collapsed, and several major news headlines and coverage on state television may be enough to spark panic.</p><p>A recent study showed the fragility of the U.S. banking system and how many banks would become technically insolvent in the event of a bank run. If we assume a worst-case scenario where 100% of uninsured deposits are withdrawn, then more than 1,600 U.S. banks will fail (4,237 banks, according to FDIC data from 2021). But even assuming that only 30% of uninsured deposits are withdrawn, 106 banks will fail.</p><p>The problem is that even well-capitalized banks can suddenly face major trouble when customers (for whatever reason) lose confidence and start withdrawing cash. For a big turmoil in the banking system, banks don't necessarily collapse completely. Withdrawing funds creates problems earlier.</p><p>03</p><p>Problem: Non-performing assets</p><p>While bank runs happen from time to time and can force banks into submission (which they have happened in the past few decades), they are not the main reason for bank failures. Bank failures due to bank runs were more common in the first half of the 20th century (especially during the Great Depression, when thousands of banks failed), and systems were put in place to prevent bank runs after the Great Depression.</p><p>Today, banks often fail because they have bad assets or the wrong assets at the wrong time (and often ignore or violate risk management principles). Now, with the sharp rise in interest rates over the past few quarters, there may be the wrong loan on the bank's books. Some banks-especially in Europe-may hold (close to) zero-rate government bonds in their portfolios, and as interest rates rise, banks are forced to pay higher interest rates to depositors, which will pose problems over time.</p><p>The second typical problem is that asset prices are falling, and banks have so-called toxic assets on their books. During the Great Financial Crisis, it was subprime mortgages (or financial products based on subprime mortgages)-assets (or: loans) that became bad loans because banks lent money to people who could not afford to repay their mortgages. Furthermore, the asset may be completely mispriced and its value is declining-this usually happens after a bubble, because banks may be buying stocks (or other traded assets) at the wrong time at a price that exceeds the intrinsic value of the asset.</p><p>04</p><p>Complex and interrelated systems</p><p>So far, we have studied different risks in isolation. But these events rarely occur alone. They usually reinforce each other, and a ripple reaction (or domino effect) can quickly occur within the financial system, leading to a banking crisis. The World Bank writes:</p><p>A (systemic) banking crisis occurs when many banks in a country are simultaneously facing severe solvency or liquidity problems-either because all banks have been hit by the same external shock, or because the failure of one bank or group of banks spreads to other banks in the system. More specifically, a systemic banking crisis refers to a large number of defaults in a country's corporate and financial sectors,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">Financial institution</a>And it is difficult for enterprises to repay contracts on time. It may seem obvious that several banks in a country can fail at the same time because they all purchased similar assets that end up being worth much less than previously estimated, but the spread of bank failures across the banking system was not so obvious initially. When a non-financial business fails, there is some impact on both suppliers and customers, and there is some degree of disruption in the supply chain. But it doesn't trigger a ripple effect like a bank failure. First, the erosion of trust replaced by panic will quickly spread across the banking industry. When one (or several) banks start to fail, you will start questioning whether your own bank is safe and may take divestment actions. Secondly, because banks lend to each other and buy assets issued by other banks, there are countless connections between them, so the problem will quickly spread across the banking system.</p><p>The banking system, the stock market, and the economy are all complex non-linear systems, thousands of nodes and links intertwined in a complex system, I don't know what to expect, but I can see what to expect in a complex non-linear system, and knowing what to expect is enough to make me very cautious. With so many unanswered questions, analysts still don't think now is the time to buy bank stocks.</p><p>Currently, small regional banks in particular have been hit hard, in some cases losing 50% or more of their value in a very short period of time.</p><p>Now, one might ask whether the crisis has reached an advanced stage and whether we should start investing. Let's be honest: No! The answer remains: not yet! Despite the problems starting to emerge, analysts don't think we're near the bottom-neither in bank stocks nor the stock market as a whole. Some banks may already appear cheap-especially smaller regional banks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f564a259d8bbaa50f3f576f3c367cc4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p>Although some banks in the United States-including U.S. Bancorp,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>And Bank of America-down 20% or more, but their Canadian peers have fared a little better so far.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bb7c2b23c5266bcc582c6c903c23129\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p>05</p><p>conclusion</p><p>Banks are in trouble and some are starting to fail, which is just another fall of domino cards that, regrettably, fit into the usual development pattern of financial crises. Recessions don't always go hand in hand with banking crises, but bank failures are never a good sign. This is just the next step after early warning signs such as an inversion of the yield curve or a decline in the number of new housing permits. Of course, I could be wrong, and we can always take the opposite view (there was a surge in housing permits in February 2023, which doesn't fit the crisis narrative).</p><p>I don't know if we're going to see a crisis similar to 2008, and I don't know what role equally overvalued real estate might play in this crisis. However, so far, many signs hint at a severe recession in the financial and economic system, and I completely agree with Ray Dalio:</p><p>I think this is a very classic event of the very classic bubble bursting part of the short term debt cycle (lasting about 7 years, or maybe 3 years or so) in which tightening money to curb credit growth and inflation causes a self-reinforcing debt-credit contraction that continues through a domino-like contagion until banks create easy money, negating the debt-credit contraction, thus generating more new credit and debt, planting the seeds for the next big debt problem until these short term cycles accumulate debt assets and liabilities to an unsustainable point and the whole thing collapses in debt restructuring and debt monetization (usually happening about every 75 years, about 25 years or so).</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI4Mzc0ODQxOQ==&mid=2247669896&idx=6&sn=5e015ae9a4750da0fd02e789112ea54f&chksm=eb89e9a4dcfe60b2e083378a0d7b531feac3fd7291bc62274e5ef00ef0efe9d24a8db1e2cf81#rd\">美股研究社</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f410d25869e83895617f8fd0fb2de933","relate_stocks":{"BK4581":"高盛持仓","JPM":"摩根大通","SG9999002232.USD":"Allianz Global High Payout USD","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0310799852.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Equity Income A MDIS SGD","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","LU1244550221.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) INC (M)","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","LU0976567544.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Income A Mdis SGD-H1","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU1267930490.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"AS\" (SGD) INC A","SG9999002224.SGD":"Allianz Global 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SGD-H1","LU0211326755.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0211327993.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0211326839.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","LU0320765489.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Mutual US Value A Acc SGD","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0496365809.HKD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (HKD) INC (Q)","LU1496350171.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED BALANCED \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1496350502.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED DYNAMIC \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI4Mzc0ODQxOQ==&mid=2247669896&idx=6&sn=5e015ae9a4750da0fd02e789112ea54f&chksm=eb89e9a4dcfe60b2e083378a0d7b531feac3fd7291bc62274e5ef00ef0efe9d24a8db1e2cf81#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2321098115","content_text":"过去两周，危机突然升温，伴随着熊市，标准普尔500指数再次贬值，在本文中将主要关注银行系统和银行的崩溃。但银行在经济中扮演着重要角色，而陷入困境的银行可能会成为危机的负面催化剂。01概述基本上有两个主要的新闻报道。一方面，瑞士的瑞士信贷集团正被瑞银集团超越;另一方面是美国的几家银行在摩根大通等竞争对手的促进下倒闭，官方以及美联储介入。让我们从瑞士信贷开始。这家瑞士银行陷入困境并不令人意外，因为有关该公司陷入困境的报道几个月前就已经有了。然而，最近几天，情况突然变得更加戏剧性。上周已经有报道称，瑞士国家银行和FINMA(瑞士金融监管机构)将为瑞士信贷提供500亿瑞士法郎的紧急贷款(如有必要)。在周末——这种事情总是在周末市场休市的时候发生——瑞银同意以32.5亿美元的价格收购瑞信，这个价格大约是其上次股价的一半，但远高于最初的10亿美元的报价，瑞信拒绝了这一报价。但陷入困境的不仅仅是瑞士信贷——在前一周，硅谷银行倒闭，美国银行业危机达到了暂时的高潮。看到瑞士信贷陷入困境也许并不奇怪，因为有关该公司陷入困境的报道几个月前就已经发布了，但肯定没有人能预见到美国的银行倒闭(尽管银行倒闭是每次危机和熊市中可能发生的事件之一)。就像在过去类似的情况下，我们看到了“经典”的反应。美联储的反应是通过使用银行定期融资计划(BTFP)为银行提供额外的流动性。在这种情况下出现的另一个经典模式是，官方公开宣布银行体系是多么强大和安全，人们不必担心。上周周日珍妮特·耶伦、杰罗姆·鲍威尔和联邦存款保险公司主席马丁·格伦伯格已经通知公众，硅谷银行的储户将在周一获得他们所有的资金，此举也安抚了市场。在过去的危机中，我们已经看到了类似的举动。作为一个德国人，我尤其记得德国官方在2008年发表了类似的声明，并向德国公众保证，他们的存款是安全的，就像雷曼兄弟倒闭后的地狱一样。尽管这些反应正在发挥其应有的作用——恢复人们对银行体系和金融市场的信心——但这些反应有时只是短期的，对即将发生的事情是一种警告信号。在运行良好的市场中，市场参与者对银行的前景或安全充满信心(甚至是欣快感)，这样的声明是不必要的。美联储不得不进行干预也不是一个好迹象，尽管这种干预有时会奏效——比如在2020年，当时提供了大量流动性。然而，在中期(也许是三年后)，向市场注入巨额资金的意外后果可能会显现出来(因为用这些钱进行投机导致了错误的决策、高风险的赌注，以及现在的违约和银行倒闭)。02问题：信任和信心银行(以及类似机构)的一个巨大问题是信任和信心所扮演的角色——尤其是许多人(包括投资者)误解了信任和信心的重要性。虽然在人们是否会在银行存钱或取款的问题上，信任是至关重要的，但很难衡量信心。这尤其成问题，因为情况可能在几天内发生变化:恐慌可能迅速蔓延到整个国家(或全世界)，上周信任银行的储户会突然感到恐慌，并试图提取资金。因此，仅仅看资产负债表是不够的，因为银行挤兑和人们失去信任会让许多银行崩溃。几家机构倒闭，几家主要新闻头条和国家电视台的报道可能足以引发恐慌。最近的一项研究显示了美国银行系统的脆弱性，以及在银行挤兑的情况下，有多少银行会在技术上资不抵债。如果我们假设最坏的情况是100%的无保险存款被提取，那么超过1600家美国银行将倒闭(根据FDIC从2021年开始的数据，共有4237家银行)。但即使假设只有30%的无保险存款被提取，106家银行也会倒闭。问题是，当客户(无论出于何种原因)失去信心并开始提现时，即使是资本充足的银行也可能突然面临重大麻烦。对于银行体系的大动荡，银行并不一定会完全崩溃。提取资金会更早地产生问题。03问题：不良资产尽管银行挤兑时有发生，并可能迫使银行屈服(过去几十年确实发生过)，但这并不是银行倒闭的主要原因。由于银行挤兑而导致的银行倒闭在20世纪上半叶更为常见(尤其是在大萧条期间，数千家银行倒闭)，大萧条之后，人们建立了防止银行挤兑的系统。如今，银行倒闭的原因通常是它们在错误的时间拥有不良资产或错误的资产(而且经常忽视或违反风险管理原则)。现在，随着过去几个季度利率的急剧上升，银行账簿上可能有错误的贷款。一些银行——尤其是欧洲的银行——可能在其投资组合中持有(接近于)零利率的政府债券，随着利率的提高，银行被迫向储户支付更高的利率，随着时间的推移，这将带来问题。第二个典型问题是资产价格下跌，银行账面上有所谓的有毒资产。在金融大危机期间，正是次级抵押贷款(或基于次级抵押贷款的金融产品)——资产(或:贷款)变成了不良贷款，因为银行把钱借给了没有能力偿还抵押贷款的人。此外，资产可能完全被错误定价，价值正在下降——这通常发生在泡沫之后，因为银行可能在错误的时间购买股票(或其他交易资产)，价格超过了资产的内在价值。04复杂且相互关联的系统到目前为止，我们孤立地研究了不同的风险。但这些事件很少单独发生。它们通常相互加强，连锁反应(或多米诺骨牌效应)可能很快在金融体系内发生，导致银行危机。世界银行写道:当一个国家的许多银行同时面临严重的偿付能力或流动性问题时，就会发生(系统性)银行危机——要么是因为所有银行都受到了相同的外部冲击，要么是因为一家银行或一组银行的倒闭蔓延到系统中的其他银行。更具体地说，系统性银行危机是指一个国家的企业和金融部门出现大量违约，金融机构和企业难以按时偿还合同。一个国家的几家银行可能同时倒闭，因为它们都购买了类似的资产，而这些资产的价值最终远低于先前的估计，这似乎很明显，但银行倒闭在整个银行系统中的蔓延最初并不那么明显。当一家非金融企业倒闭时，对供应商和客户都会产生一些影响，供应链也会受到一定程度的干扰。但它不会像银行倒闭那样引发连锁反应。首先，被恐慌所取代的信任侵蚀将迅速蔓延至整个银行业。当一家(或几家)银行开始倒闭时，你会开始质疑自己的银行是否安全，并可能采取撤资行动。其次，由于银行之间相互放贷，购买其他银行发行的资产，银行之间存在着无数的联系，因此问题将迅速蔓延到整个银行系统。银行系统、股票市场和经济都是复杂的非线性系统，数千个节点和环节交织在一个复杂的系统中，我不知道会发生什么，但我可以看到在一个复杂的非线性系统中会发生什么，知道会发生什么足以让我非常谨慎。有这么多悬而未决的问题，分析师仍然认为现在不是收购银行股的时候。目前，尤其是小型地区性银行受到了沉重打击，在某些情况下，它们在很短的时间内损失了50%甚至更多的价值。现在，有人可能会问，危机是否已经到了后期阶段，我们是否应该开始投资。说实话:没有!答案仍然是:还没有!尽管问题开始显现，但分析师认为我们还没有接近底部——无论是银行股还是整个股市。一些银行可能已经显得很便宜——尤其是规模较小的地区性银行。Data by YCharts虽然美国的一些银行——包括美国合众银行、富国银行和美国银行——下跌了20%甚至更多，但迄今为止，加拿大同行的表现要好一些。Data by YCharts05结论银行陷入困境，一些银行开始倒闭，这只是另一张多米诺骨牌的倒下，令人遗憾的是，这符合金融危机通常的发展模式。衰退并不总是与银行危机相伴，但银行倒闭从来不是一个好迹象。这只是收益率曲线反转或新住房许可证数量下降等早期预警信号之后的下一步。当然，我可能是错的，我们总是可以采取相反的观点(2023年2月住房许可证数量激增，这与危机的叙述不相符)。我不知道我们是否会看到类似于2008年的危机，我也不知道同样被高估的房地产在这场危机中可能扮演什么角色。然而，到目前为止，许多迹象都暗示着金融和经济体系将面临严重衰退，我完全同意Ray Dalio的观点:我认为这是短期债务周期中非常经典的泡沫破裂部分的一个非常经典的事件（大约持续7年，或者大约3年），在这个过程中，紧缩货币以抑制信贷增长和通货膨胀，导致了自我强化的债务-信贷收缩，这种收缩过程通过多米诺骨牌一样的传染，持续到银行创造宽松的货币，否定了债务-信贷收缩、 从而产生更多新的信贷和债务，为下一个大的债务问题埋下种子，直到这些短期周期将债务资产和负债积累到不可持续的地步，整个事情在债务重组和债务货币化中崩溃（通常大约每75年发生一次，大约25年左右）。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CS":1,"JPM":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2118,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943144843,"gmtCreate":1679313636482,"gmtModify":1679313640622,"author":{"id":"4094983188358330","authorId":"4094983188358330","name":"我是梦幻金钱战士","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/99cba128d11b8be74b1f95636cd22ed7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094983188358330","authorIdStr":"4094983188358330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943144843","repostId":"2320682320","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2320682320","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"坚守初心，不随俗流。用一颗匠子心打造一个具有广度、深度、高度、温度的港股交流圈。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"丫丫港股圈","id":"34","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/114bba396d364a71a322b5748847d493"},"pubTimestamp":1679312047,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2320682320?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-20 19:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Credit Suisse's acquisition of the century, Saudi Arabia and investors took advantage of it","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2320682320","media":"丫丫港股圈","summary":"在过去的两个周末里，美国和欧洲金融圈发生的事情可以拍出一部美剧。电视剧第一幕以硅谷银行爆雷开始，危机带来的恐慌情绪引起美国中小银行股的大抛售，这是08年金融危机后未曾出现过的恐慌现象，最后美联储紧急出","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>What has happened in the financial circles in the US and Europe over the past two weekends could make an American drama.</p><p>The first act of the TV show begins with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>At the beginning of the thunderstorm, the panic caused by the crisis caused a big sell-off in small and medium-sized bank stocks in the United States. This was a panic phenomenon that had not happened since the 2008 financial crisis. Finally, the Federal Reserve made an emergency move to lift the Silicon Valley Bank crisis.</p><p>On the bright side, the aftermath of the risk brought by Silicon Valley Bank has been lifted. But we mentioned last week that perhaps more banks have the same mine undetonated because of the loose regulation of small and medium-sized banks by the Federal Reserve. At this time, every step of Powell's way is very dangerous.</p><p>According to US media reports, more than 20 private jets in the United States landed in Omaha last Friday, and all the private jets were heads of regional banking institutions. As we all know, Omaha is a small city with only 400,000 people. Except<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Outside Hathaway, there is only<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCD\">McDonald's</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>So many heads of banking institutions flew to Omaha for only one purpose, that is, to find Buffett.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93f331f575814979af1afb3736fb84ef\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>US media said that Buffett had a dialogue with the Biden administration, and Buffett gave opinions and guidance on the current crisis.</p><p>All along, Buffett has helped banks in crisis, using his investment position and influence to restore confidence in troubled banks.</p><p>Buffett offered a $5 billion bailout during the 2008 financial crisis<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>。 During the U.S. sovereign debt crisis in 2011, he invested US $5 billion in Bank of America to help Bank of America tide over the crisis. Buffett also earned more than US $12 billion from the Bank of America transaction. Recent<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a>Buffett also participated in the explosion.</p><p>Whenever there is a crisis in the Bank of America, Buffett will help at the right time. It can be said that Buffett is the savior in the banking crisis. As a result, the outside world believes that Buffett may invest in regional banks in the United States in some way this time.</p><p>Omaha is full of helicopters, an old man slowly comes out, and the government and banking industry visit the respected old man for help, which is very much like the plot of an American TV show. The plot can be cut to the other side. The explosion of the U.S. banking crisis has triggered extreme panic among European banks.</p><p>In the early hours of this morning, Credit Suisse, which had been missing for a long time, finally couldn't hold on. UBS confirmed the acquisition of Credit Suisse, which was in crisis. The announcement shows that UBS will acquire Credit Suisse for US $3.23 billion, which is equivalent to a 50% discount on Credit Suisse's closing price last Friday.</p><p>At the beginning, Credit Suisse resolutely refused. After all, Credit Suisse is a 167-year history. It once owned more than US $1 trillion in assets and was a systemically important global bank. The reputation accumulated over the past 100 years never wants to be acquired at a low price and humiliating price.</p><p>However, Swiss authorities are eager to broker the deal before the global stock market opens. The Swiss government warned Credit Suisse that it would consider nationalizing Credit Suisse if it didn't accept UBS's takeover offer. If it is nationalized, the final purchase price may be far lower than the conditions given by UBS, and Credit Suisse will eventually be forced to sell.</p><p>UBS will bear the loss of 9 billion Swiss francs, while the Swiss National Bank guaranteed the deal and will provide UBS with 100 billion dollars of liquidity. The Swiss government also guaranteed the loss of 900 million Swiss francs for UBS.</p><p><b>It is worth noting that UBS said that the 22.48 Credit Suisse shares held by Credit Suisse shareholders will be exchanged for one UBS share, equivalent to 0.76 Swiss francs per share, with a total consideration of 3 billion Swiss francs, which means that shareholders who previously held Credit Suisse shares will suffer substantial losses.</b></p><p><b>Last week, the National Bank of Saudi Arabia said it would not inject any more capital into Credit Suisse, which caused Credit Suisse's share price to plummet. Perhaps the Saudi money owner never expected that the value of the nearly 10% Credit Suisse shares he bought with US $1.4 billion last year instantly shrank to US $300 million within a few days, and suddenly only 20% of the money invested was left.</b></p><p><b>The Saudi gold owner can be regarded as being played around by Europeans, thinking of coming in and buying Credit Suisse, which once had a market value of 100 billion yuan, but he was trapped after copying, and was forced by the Swiss government to reach an acquisition agreement.</b></p><p><b>At the same time, the Saudi financial owner was not the only one who was injured. Other investors who bought Credit Suisse coco bonds also suffered dumb losses.</b></p><p>According to UBS's announcement, Credit Suisse's $17.2 billion in additional Tier 1 capital market bonds will be fully written down. Such bonds can be called AT1 or coco bonds. This means that Credit Suisse's bonds become worthless, and those who buy the bonds will not be able to get the principal and interest.</p><p>It stands to reason that the liquidation order of bank failures is deposits → bonds → shares. Bonds have a higher liquidation priority than equity, so why are these bonds written down?</p><p>AT1 bonds are very popular in European banks, mainly to supplement the bank's Tier 1 capital. This is a kind of convertible bond. When the issuer's capital adequacy ratio is below a certain level, it will trigger the conversion mechanism to convert the bonds into stocks or write-downs.</p><p>As Europe has been in a low interest rate environment for a long time, market investors lack high-interest bonds. The high-interest bonds issued by these banks have attracted many investors to buy them. It is understood that the return of Credit Suisse's AT1 bonds is as high as 7%.</p><p>With such high returns, there are also corresponding high risks. There is a clause in the contract of AT1 bonds called \"write down\" (loss absorption mechanism), which lists that under various circumstances, AT1 bonds can be written down by banks, and investors may not get their money back.</p><p>Among them, when the bank's Tier 1 capital is lower than a certain threshold and the bank is at risk of squeezing, AT1 bonds can be written down. At present, Credit Suisse is in a situation where Tier 1 capital is below a certain threshold, and Credit Suisse's AT1 bonds meet the conditions of being \"write down\".</p><p>It is worth noting that the total size of the coco bond market is US $275 billion, and now Credit Suisse's coco bond worth US $17 billion has been written down, which means that the coco bond market will be repriced. At present, the AT1 bonds of some Asian banks have plunged sharply, which has reached the biggest drop, 20% lower than their face value.</p><p>What is worried now is that the value of coco bond market will continue to fall. As pensions, funds and insurance are the main holders of coco bonds, if the sharp decline continues, the European market may have a greater crisis. It is understood that<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>Investment management companies, Invesco Holdings, BFMC and other institutions are asset management companies that hold Credit Suisse AT1 bonds, and these institutions can't get a penny back.</p><p><b>epilogue</b></p><p>Now the European market is panicking that the write-down of Credit Suisse coco bonds may spread to other banks. If the price of AT1 bonds of other banks falls, it may affect the capital adequacy ratios of other banks, causing a chain reaction.</p><p>In Credit Suisse's deal of the century, Saudi money owners and investors who bought coco bonds were really the worst. The value of one share was reduced to 20%, and the other group of investors lost 16 billion yuan. In this humiliating merger, it also showed the fragile side of the European financial system.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Credit Suisse's acquisition of the century, Saudi Arabia and investors took advantage of it</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCredit Suisse's acquisition of the century, Saudi Arabia and investors took advantage of it\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/34\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/114bba396d364a71a322b5748847d493);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">丫丫港股圈 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-20 19:34</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>What has happened in the financial circles in the US and Europe over the past two weekends could make an American drama.</p><p>The first act of the TV show begins with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>At the beginning of the thunderstorm, the panic caused by the crisis caused a big sell-off in small and medium-sized bank stocks in the United States. This was a panic phenomenon that had not happened since the 2008 financial crisis. Finally, the Federal Reserve made an emergency move to lift the Silicon Valley Bank crisis.</p><p>On the bright side, the aftermath of the risk brought by Silicon Valley Bank has been lifted. But we mentioned last week that perhaps more banks have the same mine undetonated because of the loose regulation of small and medium-sized banks by the Federal Reserve. At this time, every step of Powell's way is very dangerous.</p><p>According to US media reports, more than 20 private jets in the United States landed in Omaha last Friday, and all the private jets were heads of regional banking institutions. As we all know, Omaha is a small city with only 400,000 people. Except<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Outside Hathaway, there is only<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCD\">McDonald's</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>So many heads of banking institutions flew to Omaha for only one purpose, that is, to find Buffett.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93f331f575814979af1afb3736fb84ef\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>US media said that Buffett had a dialogue with the Biden administration, and Buffett gave opinions and guidance on the current crisis.</p><p>All along, Buffett has helped banks in crisis, using his investment position and influence to restore confidence in troubled banks.</p><p>Buffett offered a $5 billion bailout during the 2008 financial crisis<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>。 During the U.S. sovereign debt crisis in 2011, he invested US $5 billion in Bank of America to help Bank of America tide over the crisis. Buffett also earned more than US $12 billion from the Bank of America transaction. Recent<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a>Buffett also participated in the explosion.</p><p>Whenever there is a crisis in the Bank of America, Buffett will help at the right time. It can be said that Buffett is the savior in the banking crisis. As a result, the outside world believes that Buffett may invest in regional banks in the United States in some way this time.</p><p>Omaha is full of helicopters, an old man slowly comes out, and the government and banking industry visit the respected old man for help, which is very much like the plot of an American TV show. The plot can be cut to the other side. The explosion of the U.S. banking crisis has triggered extreme panic among European banks.</p><p>In the early hours of this morning, Credit Suisse, which had been missing for a long time, finally couldn't hold on. UBS confirmed the acquisition of Credit Suisse, which was in crisis. The announcement shows that UBS will acquire Credit Suisse for US $3.23 billion, which is equivalent to a 50% discount on Credit Suisse's closing price last Friday.</p><p>At the beginning, Credit Suisse resolutely refused. After all, Credit Suisse is a 167-year history. It once owned more than US $1 trillion in assets and was a systemically important global bank. The reputation accumulated over the past 100 years never wants to be acquired at a low price and humiliating price.</p><p>However, Swiss authorities are eager to broker the deal before the global stock market opens. The Swiss government warned Credit Suisse that it would consider nationalizing Credit Suisse if it didn't accept UBS's takeover offer. If it is nationalized, the final purchase price may be far lower than the conditions given by UBS, and Credit Suisse will eventually be forced to sell.</p><p>UBS will bear the loss of 9 billion Swiss francs, while the Swiss National Bank guaranteed the deal and will provide UBS with 100 billion dollars of liquidity. The Swiss government also guaranteed the loss of 900 million Swiss francs for UBS.</p><p><b>It is worth noting that UBS said that the 22.48 Credit Suisse shares held by Credit Suisse shareholders will be exchanged for one UBS share, equivalent to 0.76 Swiss francs per share, with a total consideration of 3 billion Swiss francs, which means that shareholders who previously held Credit Suisse shares will suffer substantial losses.</b></p><p><b>Last week, the National Bank of Saudi Arabia said it would not inject any more capital into Credit Suisse, which caused Credit Suisse's share price to plummet. Perhaps the Saudi money owner never expected that the value of the nearly 10% Credit Suisse shares he bought with US $1.4 billion last year instantly shrank to US $300 million within a few days, and suddenly only 20% of the money invested was left.</b></p><p><b>The Saudi gold owner can be regarded as being played around by Europeans, thinking of coming in and buying Credit Suisse, which once had a market value of 100 billion yuan, but he was trapped after copying, and was forced by the Swiss government to reach an acquisition agreement.</b></p><p><b>At the same time, the Saudi financial owner was not the only one who was injured. Other investors who bought Credit Suisse coco bonds also suffered dumb losses.</b></p><p>According to UBS's announcement, Credit Suisse's $17.2 billion in additional Tier 1 capital market bonds will be fully written down. Such bonds can be called AT1 or coco bonds. This means that Credit Suisse's bonds become worthless, and those who buy the bonds will not be able to get the principal and interest.</p><p>It stands to reason that the liquidation order of bank failures is deposits → bonds → shares. Bonds have a higher liquidation priority than equity, so why are these bonds written down?</p><p>AT1 bonds are very popular in European banks, mainly to supplement the bank's Tier 1 capital. This is a kind of convertible bond. When the issuer's capital adequacy ratio is below a certain level, it will trigger the conversion mechanism to convert the bonds into stocks or write-downs.</p><p>As Europe has been in a low interest rate environment for a long time, market investors lack high-interest bonds. The high-interest bonds issued by these banks have attracted many investors to buy them. It is understood that the return of Credit Suisse's AT1 bonds is as high as 7%.</p><p>With such high returns, there are also corresponding high risks. There is a clause in the contract of AT1 bonds called \"write down\" (loss absorption mechanism), which lists that under various circumstances, AT1 bonds can be written down by banks, and investors may not get their money back.</p><p>Among them, when the bank's Tier 1 capital is lower than a certain threshold and the bank is at risk of squeezing, AT1 bonds can be written down. At present, Credit Suisse is in a situation where Tier 1 capital is below a certain threshold, and Credit Suisse's AT1 bonds meet the conditions of being \"write down\".</p><p>It is worth noting that the total size of the coco bond market is US $275 billion, and now Credit Suisse's coco bond worth US $17 billion has been written down, which means that the coco bond market will be repriced. At present, the AT1 bonds of some Asian banks have plunged sharply, which has reached the biggest drop, 20% lower than their face value.</p><p>What is worried now is that the value of coco bond market will continue to fall. As pensions, funds and insurance are the main holders of coco bonds, if the sharp decline continues, the European market may have a greater crisis. It is understood that<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>Investment management companies, Invesco Holdings, BFMC and other institutions are asset management companies that hold Credit Suisse AT1 bonds, and these institutions can't get a penny back.</p><p><b>epilogue</b></p><p>Now the European market is panicking that the write-down of Credit Suisse coco bonds may spread to other banks. If the price of AT1 bonds of other banks falls, it may affect the capital adequacy ratios of other banks, causing a chain reaction.</p><p>In Credit Suisse's deal of the century, Saudi money owners and investors who bought coco bonds were really the worst. The value of one share was reduced to 20%, and the other group of investors lost 16 billion yuan. In this humiliating merger, it also showed the fragile side of the European financial system.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43c7a8fcc1bc91528f3f7c05a51a2622","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2320682320","content_text":"在过去的两个周末里，美国和欧洲金融圈发生的事情可以拍出一部美剧。电视剧第一幕以硅谷银行爆雷开始，危机带来的恐慌情绪引起美国中小银行股的大抛售，这是08年金融危机后未曾出现过的恐慌现象，最后美联储紧急出手解除硅谷银行危机。从明面上看，硅谷银行带来的风险余波已解除。但我们上周提到过，由于美联储对中小型银行的监管力度宽松，或许有更多银行有同样的地雷未被引爆。在这时，鲍威尔的每一步都十分危险。据美媒报道，上周五美国超过20架私人飞机在奥马哈降落，私人飞机上全是地区性银行机构的负责人。众所周知，奥马哈是只有40万人的小城市，奥马哈除了伯克希尔哈撒韦以外，就只剩麦当劳和沃尔玛了，那么多银行机构负责人飞到奥马哈，目的只有一个，那就是找巴菲特。美媒称，巴菲特与拜登政府进行了对话，巴菲特针对当前危机给出了意见和指导。一直以来，巴菲特都在帮助陷入危机的银行，利用他的投资地位和影响力来恢复人们对陷入困境的银行的信心。巴菲特在2008年金融危机期间，拿出50亿美元救助高盛。在2011年美国主权债务危机期间，向美国银行投资50亿美元，帮助美银渡过危机时刻，巴菲特也从美银这笔交易中赚超120亿美元。近期第一共和银行的爆雷，巴菲特也有所参与。每当美国银行出现危机时，巴菲特都会在合适的时机出手相助，可以说，巴菲特是银行业危机中的救星。由此，外界认为巴菲特此次可能以某种方式投资美国地区性银行。奥马哈停满直升机，一个老头缓缓走出来，政府和银行业拜访求助德高望重的老人，这像极了美剧中的剧情。剧情可以切至另外一边，美国银行危机的爆雷，引发起欧洲银行的极度恐慌。在今日凌晨，劣迹已久的瑞信终于撑不住了，瑞银集团确认收购陷入危机的瑞信。公告显示，瑞银将以32.3亿美元收购瑞信，相当于瑞信上周五收盘价打五折。在一开始，瑞信坚决拒绝，毕竟瑞信是有167年历史的，曾经拥有过一万多亿美元资产的全球系统性重要的银行，且两家曾经是竞争对手，瑞信在过去一百多年间积累的声誉，绝不想被低价屈辱性的收购。但瑞士当局急于在全球股市开门前撮合这笔交易，瑞士政府警告瑞信称，若不接受瑞银的收购要约，那政府将考虑将瑞信国有化。若被国有化交易，那最后可能收购价远不及瑞银给出的条件，最后瑞信被迫卖出。瑞银将承担90亿瑞郎的损失，而瑞士央行为这笔交易做出担保，将向瑞银提供1000亿美元的流动性，瑞士政府还为瑞银担保了9亿瑞郎的损失。值得注意的是，瑞银表示，瑞信股东所持有的22.48股瑞信股票，将换得1股瑞银股票，相当于每股0.76瑞郎，总对价为30亿瑞士法郎，这意味着此前持有瑞信股票的股东都会有大幅损失。上周，沙特国家银行表示不会再为瑞信注资，这引起瑞信的股价大跌。可能沙特金主万万没想到，自己去年用14亿美元买来的近10%瑞信股份，在几天内股份价值就瞬间缩水至3亿美元，投进来的钱突然就剩20%了。沙特金主可算是被欧洲人耍的团团转，想着进来抄底一把曾经千亿市值的瑞信，结果抄完被套牢，还要受瑞士政府的强迫达成收购协议。同时，受伤的不止沙特金主一人，其他买了瑞信coco债的投资者也吃了哑巴亏。据瑞银公告称，瑞信的172亿美元的额外一级资本市场债券将全额减记，这类债券可叫AT1或叫coco债。这意味着瑞信的债券变得一文不值，买了该债券的人将无法拿到本金和利息。按理说，银行倒闭的清算顺序是存款→债→股，债券比股权的清算优先级要高，那为什么这些债被减记了？AT1债券在欧洲银行十分流行，主要以补充银行的一级资本金，这是一种可转换债券，在发行者的资本充足率低于某个水平时，就会触发转换机制，将债券转换为股票或者减记。由于欧洲长期处在低利率的环境下，市场投资者缺少高息债券，这些银行所发行的高息债券就吸引了很多投资者来购买，据了解，瑞信的AT1债券回报高达7%。有如此高的回报，也有相对应的高风险。AT1债券的合同里有一个条款名为“write down”（损失吸收机制），列出了银行在各式各样的情况下，AT1债可以被减记，投资者可能拿不回钱。其中即包括，银行一级资本金低于某个门槛时，银行出现挤提的风险时，AT1债就可以被减记。而目前瑞信就处在一级资本金低于某个门槛的情况，瑞信的AT1债符合被“write down”的条件。值得注意的是，coco债券市场总规模为2750亿美元，而现在瑞信价值170亿美元的coco债被减记后，意味着coco债券市场将要被重新定价。目前，亚洲部分银行的AT1债券大幅跳水，已创下最大跌幅，较面值跌去20%。现担忧的是，coco债券市场的价值会继续下跌，由于养老金、基金、保险是coco债券的主要持有人，若大跌持续下去，欧洲市场可能有更大的危机。据了解，太平洋投资管理公司、景顺控股、BFMC等机构是持有瑞信AT1债券的资产管理公司，而这些机构是一分钱都拿不回来了。结语现在欧洲市场在恐慌着瑞信coco债券的减记可能会蔓延至其他银行，其他银行的AT1债券价格若下跌，可能危机到其他银行的资本充足率，引起连锁反应。在瑞信这笔世纪交易中，沙特金主和买coco债的投资者属实最惨，一个持有的股份价值被缩减至20%，另一批投资者血亏160亿，在这次屈辱性的合并中，也展现出欧洲金融体系脆弱的一面。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3058,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943144379,"gmtCreate":1679313576292,"gmtModify":1679313581644,"author":{"id":"4094983188358330","authorId":"4094983188358330","name":"我是梦幻金钱战士","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/99cba128d11b8be74b1f95636cd22ed7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094983188358330","authorIdStr":"4094983188358330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943144379","repostId":"2320682320","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2320682320","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"坚守初心，不随俗流。用一颗匠子心打造一个具有广度、深度、高度、温度的港股交流圈。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"丫丫港股圈","id":"34","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/114bba396d364a71a322b5748847d493"},"pubTimestamp":1679312047,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2320682320?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-20 19:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Credit Suisse's acquisition of the century, Saudi Arabia and investors took advantage of it","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2320682320","media":"丫丫港股圈","summary":"在过去的两个周末里，美国和欧洲金融圈发生的事情可以拍出一部美剧。电视剧第一幕以硅谷银行爆雷开始，危机带来的恐慌情绪引起美国中小银行股的大抛售，这是08年金融危机后未曾出现过的恐慌现象，最后美联储紧急出","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>What has happened in the financial circles in the US and Europe over the past two weekends could make an American drama.</p><p>The first act of the TV show begins with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>At the beginning of the thunderstorm, the panic caused by the crisis caused a big sell-off in small and medium-sized bank stocks in the United States. This was a panic phenomenon that had not happened since the 2008 financial crisis. Finally, the Federal Reserve made an emergency move to lift the Silicon Valley Bank crisis.</p><p>On the bright side, the aftermath of the risk brought by Silicon Valley Bank has been lifted. But we mentioned last week that perhaps more banks have the same mine undetonated because of the loose regulation of small and medium-sized banks by the Federal Reserve. At this time, every step of Powell's way is very dangerous.</p><p>According to US media reports, more than 20 private jets in the United States landed in Omaha last Friday, and all the private jets were heads of regional banking institutions. As we all know, Omaha is a small city with only 400,000 people. Except<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Outside Hathaway, there is only<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCD\">McDonald's</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>So many heads of banking institutions flew to Omaha for only one purpose, that is, to find Buffett.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93f331f575814979af1afb3736fb84ef\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>US media said that Buffett had a dialogue with the Biden administration, and Buffett gave opinions and guidance on the current crisis.</p><p>All along, Buffett has helped banks in crisis, using his investment position and influence to restore confidence in troubled banks.</p><p>Buffett offered a $5 billion bailout during the 2008 financial crisis<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>。 During the U.S. sovereign debt crisis in 2011, he invested US $5 billion in Bank of America to help Bank of America tide over the crisis. Buffett also earned more than US $12 billion from the Bank of America transaction. Recent<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a>Buffett also participated in the explosion.</p><p>Whenever there is a crisis in the Bank of America, Buffett will help at the right time. It can be said that Buffett is the savior in the banking crisis. As a result, the outside world believes that Buffett may invest in regional banks in the United States in some way this time.</p><p>Omaha is full of helicopters, an old man slowly comes out, and the government and banking industry visit the respected old man for help, which is very much like the plot of an American TV show. The plot can be cut to the other side. The explosion of the U.S. banking crisis has triggered extreme panic among European banks.</p><p>In the early hours of this morning, Credit Suisse, which had been missing for a long time, finally couldn't hold on. UBS confirmed the acquisition of Credit Suisse, which was in crisis. The announcement shows that UBS will acquire Credit Suisse for US $3.23 billion, which is equivalent to a 50% discount on Credit Suisse's closing price last Friday.</p><p>At the beginning, Credit Suisse resolutely refused. After all, Credit Suisse is a 167-year history. It once owned more than US $1 trillion in assets and was a systemically important global bank. The reputation accumulated over the past 100 years never wants to be acquired at a low price and humiliating price.</p><p>However, Swiss authorities are eager to broker the deal before the global stock market opens. The Swiss government warned Credit Suisse that it would consider nationalizing Credit Suisse if it didn't accept UBS's takeover offer. If it is nationalized, the final purchase price may be far lower than the conditions given by UBS, and Credit Suisse will eventually be forced to sell.</p><p>UBS will bear the loss of 9 billion Swiss francs, while the Swiss National Bank guaranteed the deal and will provide UBS with 100 billion dollars of liquidity. The Swiss government also guaranteed the loss of 900 million Swiss francs for UBS.</p><p><b>It is worth noting that UBS said that the 22.48 Credit Suisse shares held by Credit Suisse shareholders will be exchanged for one UBS share, equivalent to 0.76 Swiss francs per share, with a total consideration of 3 billion Swiss francs, which means that shareholders who previously held Credit Suisse shares will suffer substantial losses.</b></p><p><b>Last week, the National Bank of Saudi Arabia said it would not inject any more capital into Credit Suisse, which caused Credit Suisse's share price to plummet. Perhaps the Saudi money owner never expected that the value of the nearly 10% Credit Suisse shares he bought with US $1.4 billion last year instantly shrank to US $300 million within a few days, and suddenly only 20% of the money invested was left.</b></p><p><b>The Saudi gold owner can be regarded as being played around by Europeans, thinking of coming in and buying Credit Suisse, which once had a market value of 100 billion yuan, but he was trapped after copying, and was forced by the Swiss government to reach an acquisition agreement.</b></p><p><b>At the same time, the Saudi financial owner was not the only one who was injured. Other investors who bought Credit Suisse coco bonds also suffered dumb losses.</b></p><p>According to UBS's announcement, Credit Suisse's $17.2 billion in additional Tier 1 capital market bonds will be fully written down. Such bonds can be called AT1 or coco bonds. This means that Credit Suisse's bonds become worthless, and those who buy the bonds will not be able to get the principal and interest.</p><p>It stands to reason that the liquidation order of bank failures is deposits → bonds → shares. Bonds have a higher liquidation priority than equity, so why are these bonds written down?</p><p>AT1 bonds are very popular in European banks, mainly to supplement the bank's Tier 1 capital. This is a kind of convertible bond. When the issuer's capital adequacy ratio is below a certain level, it will trigger the conversion mechanism to convert the bonds into stocks or write-downs.</p><p>As Europe has been in a low interest rate environment for a long time, market investors lack high-interest bonds. The high-interest bonds issued by these banks have attracted many investors to buy them. It is understood that the return of Credit Suisse's AT1 bonds is as high as 7%.</p><p>With such high returns, there are also corresponding high risks. There is a clause in the contract of AT1 bonds called \"write down\" (loss absorption mechanism), which lists that under various circumstances, AT1 bonds can be written down by banks, and investors may not get their money back.</p><p>Among them, when the bank's Tier 1 capital is lower than a certain threshold and the bank is at risk of squeezing, AT1 bonds can be written down. At present, Credit Suisse is in a situation where Tier 1 capital is below a certain threshold, and Credit Suisse's AT1 bonds meet the conditions of being \"write down\".</p><p>It is worth noting that the total size of the coco bond market is US $275 billion, and now Credit Suisse's coco bond worth US $17 billion has been written down, which means that the coco bond market will be repriced. At present, the AT1 bonds of some Asian banks have plunged sharply, which has reached the biggest drop, 20% lower than their face value.</p><p>What is worried now is that the value of coco bond market will continue to fall. As pensions, funds and insurance are the main holders of coco bonds, if the sharp decline continues, the European market may have a greater crisis. It is understood that<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>Investment management companies, Invesco Holdings, BFMC and other institutions are asset management companies that hold Credit Suisse AT1 bonds, and these institutions can't get a penny back.</p><p><b>epilogue</b></p><p>Now the European market is panicking that the write-down of Credit Suisse coco bonds may spread to other banks. If the price of AT1 bonds of other banks falls, it may affect the capital adequacy ratios of other banks, causing a chain reaction.</p><p>In Credit Suisse's deal of the century, Saudi money owners and investors who bought coco bonds were really the worst. The value of one share was reduced to 20%, and the other group of investors lost 16 billion yuan. In this humiliating merger, it also showed the fragile side of the European financial system.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Credit Suisse's acquisition of the century, Saudi Arabia and investors took advantage of it</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCredit Suisse's acquisition of the century, Saudi Arabia and investors took advantage of it\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/34\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/114bba396d364a71a322b5748847d493);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">丫丫港股圈 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-20 19:34</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>What has happened in the financial circles in the US and Europe over the past two weekends could make an American drama.</p><p>The first act of the TV show begins with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>At the beginning of the thunderstorm, the panic caused by the crisis caused a big sell-off in small and medium-sized bank stocks in the United States. This was a panic phenomenon that had not happened since the 2008 financial crisis. Finally, the Federal Reserve made an emergency move to lift the Silicon Valley Bank crisis.</p><p>On the bright side, the aftermath of the risk brought by Silicon Valley Bank has been lifted. But we mentioned last week that perhaps more banks have the same mine undetonated because of the loose regulation of small and medium-sized banks by the Federal Reserve. At this time, every step of Powell's way is very dangerous.</p><p>According to US media reports, more than 20 private jets in the United States landed in Omaha last Friday, and all the private jets were heads of regional banking institutions. As we all know, Omaha is a small city with only 400,000 people. Except<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Outside Hathaway, there is only<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCD\">McDonald's</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>So many heads of banking institutions flew to Omaha for only one purpose, that is, to find Buffett.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93f331f575814979af1afb3736fb84ef\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>US media said that Buffett had a dialogue with the Biden administration, and Buffett gave opinions and guidance on the current crisis.</p><p>All along, Buffett has helped banks in crisis, using his investment position and influence to restore confidence in troubled banks.</p><p>Buffett offered a $5 billion bailout during the 2008 financial crisis<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>。 During the U.S. sovereign debt crisis in 2011, he invested US $5 billion in Bank of America to help Bank of America tide over the crisis. Buffett also earned more than US $12 billion from the Bank of America transaction. Recent<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a>Buffett also participated in the explosion.</p><p>Whenever there is a crisis in the Bank of America, Buffett will help at the right time. It can be said that Buffett is the savior in the banking crisis. As a result, the outside world believes that Buffett may invest in regional banks in the United States in some way this time.</p><p>Omaha is full of helicopters, an old man slowly comes out, and the government and banking industry visit the respected old man for help, which is very much like the plot of an American TV show. The plot can be cut to the other side. The explosion of the U.S. banking crisis has triggered extreme panic among European banks.</p><p>In the early hours of this morning, Credit Suisse, which had been missing for a long time, finally couldn't hold on. UBS confirmed the acquisition of Credit Suisse, which was in crisis. The announcement shows that UBS will acquire Credit Suisse for US $3.23 billion, which is equivalent to a 50% discount on Credit Suisse's closing price last Friday.</p><p>At the beginning, Credit Suisse resolutely refused. After all, Credit Suisse is a 167-year history. It once owned more than US $1 trillion in assets and was a systemically important global bank. The reputation accumulated over the past 100 years never wants to be acquired at a low price and humiliating price.</p><p>However, Swiss authorities are eager to broker the deal before the global stock market opens. The Swiss government warned Credit Suisse that it would consider nationalizing Credit Suisse if it didn't accept UBS's takeover offer. If it is nationalized, the final purchase price may be far lower than the conditions given by UBS, and Credit Suisse will eventually be forced to sell.</p><p>UBS will bear the loss of 9 billion Swiss francs, while the Swiss National Bank guaranteed the deal and will provide UBS with 100 billion dollars of liquidity. The Swiss government also guaranteed the loss of 900 million Swiss francs for UBS.</p><p><b>It is worth noting that UBS said that the 22.48 Credit Suisse shares held by Credit Suisse shareholders will be exchanged for one UBS share, equivalent to 0.76 Swiss francs per share, with a total consideration of 3 billion Swiss francs, which means that shareholders who previously held Credit Suisse shares will suffer substantial losses.</b></p><p><b>Last week, the National Bank of Saudi Arabia said it would not inject any more capital into Credit Suisse, which caused Credit Suisse's share price to plummet. Perhaps the Saudi money owner never expected that the value of the nearly 10% Credit Suisse shares he bought with US $1.4 billion last year instantly shrank to US $300 million within a few days, and suddenly only 20% of the money invested was left.</b></p><p><b>The Saudi gold owner can be regarded as being played around by Europeans, thinking of coming in and buying Credit Suisse, which once had a market value of 100 billion yuan, but he was trapped after copying, and was forced by the Swiss government to reach an acquisition agreement.</b></p><p><b>At the same time, the Saudi financial owner was not the only one who was injured. Other investors who bought Credit Suisse coco bonds also suffered dumb losses.</b></p><p>According to UBS's announcement, Credit Suisse's $17.2 billion in additional Tier 1 capital market bonds will be fully written down. Such bonds can be called AT1 or coco bonds. This means that Credit Suisse's bonds become worthless, and those who buy the bonds will not be able to get the principal and interest.</p><p>It stands to reason that the liquidation order of bank failures is deposits → bonds → shares. Bonds have a higher liquidation priority than equity, so why are these bonds written down?</p><p>AT1 bonds are very popular in European banks, mainly to supplement the bank's Tier 1 capital. This is a kind of convertible bond. When the issuer's capital adequacy ratio is below a certain level, it will trigger the conversion mechanism to convert the bonds into stocks or write-downs.</p><p>As Europe has been in a low interest rate environment for a long time, market investors lack high-interest bonds. The high-interest bonds issued by these banks have attracted many investors to buy them. It is understood that the return of Credit Suisse's AT1 bonds is as high as 7%.</p><p>With such high returns, there are also corresponding high risks. There is a clause in the contract of AT1 bonds called \"write down\" (loss absorption mechanism), which lists that under various circumstances, AT1 bonds can be written down by banks, and investors may not get their money back.</p><p>Among them, when the bank's Tier 1 capital is lower than a certain threshold and the bank is at risk of squeezing, AT1 bonds can be written down. At present, Credit Suisse is in a situation where Tier 1 capital is below a certain threshold, and Credit Suisse's AT1 bonds meet the conditions of being \"write down\".</p><p>It is worth noting that the total size of the coco bond market is US $275 billion, and now Credit Suisse's coco bond worth US $17 billion has been written down, which means that the coco bond market will be repriced. At present, the AT1 bonds of some Asian banks have plunged sharply, which has reached the biggest drop, 20% lower than their face value.</p><p>What is worried now is that the value of coco bond market will continue to fall. As pensions, funds and insurance are the main holders of coco bonds, if the sharp decline continues, the European market may have a greater crisis. It is understood that<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>Investment management companies, Invesco Holdings, BFMC and other institutions are asset management companies that hold Credit Suisse AT1 bonds, and these institutions can't get a penny back.</p><p><b>epilogue</b></p><p>Now the European market is panicking that the write-down of Credit Suisse coco bonds may spread to other banks. If the price of AT1 bonds of other banks falls, it may affect the capital adequacy ratios of other banks, causing a chain reaction.</p><p>In Credit Suisse's deal of the century, Saudi money owners and investors who bought coco bonds were really the worst. The value of one share was reduced to 20%, and the other group of investors lost 16 billion yuan. In this humiliating merger, it also showed the fragile side of the European financial system.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43c7a8fcc1bc91528f3f7c05a51a2622","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2320682320","content_text":"在过去的两个周末里，美国和欧洲金融圈发生的事情可以拍出一部美剧。电视剧第一幕以硅谷银行爆雷开始，危机带来的恐慌情绪引起美国中小银行股的大抛售，这是08年金融危机后未曾出现过的恐慌现象，最后美联储紧急出手解除硅谷银行危机。从明面上看，硅谷银行带来的风险余波已解除。但我们上周提到过，由于美联储对中小型银行的监管力度宽松，或许有更多银行有同样的地雷未被引爆。在这时，鲍威尔的每一步都十分危险。据美媒报道，上周五美国超过20架私人飞机在奥马哈降落，私人飞机上全是地区性银行机构的负责人。众所周知，奥马哈是只有40万人的小城市，奥马哈除了伯克希尔哈撒韦以外，就只剩麦当劳和沃尔玛了，那么多银行机构负责人飞到奥马哈，目的只有一个，那就是找巴菲特。美媒称，巴菲特与拜登政府进行了对话，巴菲特针对当前危机给出了意见和指导。一直以来，巴菲特都在帮助陷入危机的银行，利用他的投资地位和影响力来恢复人们对陷入困境的银行的信心。巴菲特在2008年金融危机期间，拿出50亿美元救助高盛。在2011年美国主权债务危机期间，向美国银行投资50亿美元，帮助美银渡过危机时刻，巴菲特也从美银这笔交易中赚超120亿美元。近期第一共和银行的爆雷，巴菲特也有所参与。每当美国银行出现危机时，巴菲特都会在合适的时机出手相助，可以说，巴菲特是银行业危机中的救星。由此，外界认为巴菲特此次可能以某种方式投资美国地区性银行。奥马哈停满直升机，一个老头缓缓走出来，政府和银行业拜访求助德高望重的老人，这像极了美剧中的剧情。剧情可以切至另外一边，美国银行危机的爆雷，引发起欧洲银行的极度恐慌。在今日凌晨，劣迹已久的瑞信终于撑不住了，瑞银集团确认收购陷入危机的瑞信。公告显示，瑞银将以32.3亿美元收购瑞信，相当于瑞信上周五收盘价打五折。在一开始，瑞信坚决拒绝，毕竟瑞信是有167年历史的，曾经拥有过一万多亿美元资产的全球系统性重要的银行，且两家曾经是竞争对手，瑞信在过去一百多年间积累的声誉，绝不想被低价屈辱性的收购。但瑞士当局急于在全球股市开门前撮合这笔交易，瑞士政府警告瑞信称，若不接受瑞银的收购要约，那政府将考虑将瑞信国有化。若被国有化交易，那最后可能收购价远不及瑞银给出的条件，最后瑞信被迫卖出。瑞银将承担90亿瑞郎的损失，而瑞士央行为这笔交易做出担保，将向瑞银提供1000亿美元的流动性，瑞士政府还为瑞银担保了9亿瑞郎的损失。值得注意的是，瑞银表示，瑞信股东所持有的22.48股瑞信股票，将换得1股瑞银股票，相当于每股0.76瑞郎，总对价为30亿瑞士法郎，这意味着此前持有瑞信股票的股东都会有大幅损失。上周，沙特国家银行表示不会再为瑞信注资，这引起瑞信的股价大跌。可能沙特金主万万没想到，自己去年用14亿美元买来的近10%瑞信股份，在几天内股份价值就瞬间缩水至3亿美元，投进来的钱突然就剩20%了。沙特金主可算是被欧洲人耍的团团转，想着进来抄底一把曾经千亿市值的瑞信，结果抄完被套牢，还要受瑞士政府的强迫达成收购协议。同时，受伤的不止沙特金主一人，其他买了瑞信coco债的投资者也吃了哑巴亏。据瑞银公告称，瑞信的172亿美元的额外一级资本市场债券将全额减记，这类债券可叫AT1或叫coco债。这意味着瑞信的债券变得一文不值，买了该债券的人将无法拿到本金和利息。按理说，银行倒闭的清算顺序是存款→债→股，债券比股权的清算优先级要高，那为什么这些债被减记了？AT1债券在欧洲银行十分流行，主要以补充银行的一级资本金，这是一种可转换债券，在发行者的资本充足率低于某个水平时，就会触发转换机制，将债券转换为股票或者减记。由于欧洲长期处在低利率的环境下，市场投资者缺少高息债券，这些银行所发行的高息债券就吸引了很多投资者来购买，据了解，瑞信的AT1债券回报高达7%。有如此高的回报，也有相对应的高风险。AT1债券的合同里有一个条款名为“write down”（损失吸收机制），列出了银行在各式各样的情况下，AT1债可以被减记，投资者可能拿不回钱。其中即包括，银行一级资本金低于某个门槛时，银行出现挤提的风险时，AT1债就可以被减记。而目前瑞信就处在一级资本金低于某个门槛的情况，瑞信的AT1债符合被“write down”的条件。值得注意的是，coco债券市场总规模为2750亿美元，而现在瑞信价值170亿美元的coco债被减记后，意味着coco债券市场将要被重新定价。目前，亚洲部分银行的AT1债券大幅跳水，已创下最大跌幅，较面值跌去20%。现担忧的是，coco债券市场的价值会继续下跌，由于养老金、基金、保险是coco债券的主要持有人，若大跌持续下去，欧洲市场可能有更大的危机。据了解，太平洋投资管理公司、景顺控股、BFMC等机构是持有瑞信AT1债券的资产管理公司，而这些机构是一分钱都拿不回来了。结语现在欧洲市场在恐慌着瑞信coco债券的减记可能会蔓延至其他银行，其他银行的AT1债券价格若下跌，可能危机到其他银行的资本充足率，引起连锁反应。在瑞信这笔世纪交易中，沙特金主和买coco债的投资者属实最惨，一个持有的股份价值被缩减至20%，另一批投资者血亏160亿，在这次屈辱性的合并中，也展现出欧洲金融体系脆弱的一面。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3477,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943367614,"gmtCreate":1679152932639,"gmtModify":1679152936753,"author":{"id":"4094983188358330","authorId":"4094983188358330","name":"我是梦幻金钱战士","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/99cba128d11b8be74b1f95636cd22ed7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094983188358330","authorIdStr":"4094983188358330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943367614","repostId":"1114210525","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114210525","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1679140453,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1114210525?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-18 19:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"UBS allegedly seeks support from Swiss authorities for any deal with Credit Suisse","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114210525","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月18日，据知情人士透露，瑞银集团要求瑞士政府在收购瑞信集团时提供支持。瑞银正在讨论政府将在任何交易中承担某些法律费用或其他具体损失的情况。知情人士称，一种可能的情况是，瑞银将收购瑞信，以获得其财富","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On March 18, according to informed sources,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>The group asked the Swiss government to provide support in the acquisition of Credit Suisse Group. UBS is discussing circumstances in which the government will bear certain legal fees or other specific losses in any transaction.</p><p>One possible scenario is that UBS will acquire Credit Suisse to gain access to its wealth and asset management unit, while potentially divesting its investment banking unit, people familiar with the matter said. Talks are still ongoing over the fate of Credit Suisse's Swiss universal bank unit, the only major unit that made a profit last year.</p><p>Both UBS and Credit Suisse declined to comment on the news. The Swiss government and Ministry of Finance did not respond to requests for comment. According to a person familiar with the matter, the goal of this negotiation is to announce the deal between the two banks by Sunday night at the latest.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>UBS allegedly seeks support from Swiss authorities for any deal with Credit Suisse</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUBS allegedly seeks support from Swiss authorities for any deal with Credit Suisse\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-18 19:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On March 18, according to informed sources,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>The group asked the Swiss government to provide support in the acquisition of Credit Suisse Group. UBS is discussing circumstances in which the government will bear certain legal fees or other specific losses in any transaction.</p><p>One possible scenario is that UBS will acquire Credit Suisse to gain access to its wealth and asset management unit, while potentially divesting its investment banking unit, people familiar with the matter said. Talks are still ongoing over the fate of Credit Suisse's Swiss universal bank unit, the only major unit that made a profit last year.</p><p>Both UBS and Credit Suisse declined to comment on the news. The Swiss government and Ministry of Finance did not respond to requests for comment. According to a person familiar with the matter, the goal of this negotiation is to announce the deal between the two banks by Sunday night at the latest.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41a3265725dba67c0660b26a189585aa","relate_stocks":{"BK4588":"碎股","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","UBS":"瑞银","BK4118":"综合性资本市场"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114210525","content_text":"3月18日，据知情人士透露，瑞银集团要求瑞士政府在收购瑞信集团时提供支持。瑞银正在讨论政府将在任何交易中承担某些法律费用或其他具体损失的情况。知情人士称，一种可能的情况是，瑞银将收购瑞信，以获得其财富和资产管理部门，同时可能剥离其投资银行部门。有关瑞信瑞士全能银行(Swiss universal bank)部门命运的谈判仍在进行中，该部门是瑞信去年唯一盈利的主要部门。瑞银和瑞信均拒绝对此消息置评。瑞士政府和财政部未回复置评请求。据此前一位知情人士透露，此次谈判的目标是最迟在周日晚间宣布两家银行之间的交易。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CS":0.9,"UBS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2372,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943050609,"gmtCreate":1678980089102,"gmtModify":1678980092992,"author":{"id":"4094983188358330","authorId":"4094983188358330","name":"我是梦幻金钱战士","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/99cba128d11b8be74b1f95636cd22ed7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094983188358330","authorIdStr":"4094983188358330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943050609","repostId":"1114791300","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114791300","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1678972436,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1114791300?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-16 21:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Soul Torture: Will a \"safe\" American Treasury Bond be the tipping point of the next crisis?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114791300","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国国债变成了“有毒资产”。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>In just one weekend, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapsed one after another, and the banking crisis continued to spread, even affecting Credit Suisse, a century-old investment bank. The Swiss National Bank has announced that it will inject liquidity urgently.</p><p>In this crisis, the Treasury Bond of the United States, which has always been regarded as the safest asset in the world, has become a \"toxic asset\" at the center of the vortex. Some people even think that the US Treasury Bond may trigger the next financial crisis.</p><p>Chris Crawford, fund manager at asset management firm Eric Sturdza Investments, said in a recent report:</p><p><b>\"The 2008 financial crisis was triggered by'ninja loans' issued to people who had no income, no jobs, and no fixed assets, and the'toxic 'asset that triggered the next crisis will be government bonds!\"</b>Of course,<b>This is not to say that there are any similarities between the U.S. Treasury Bond and the high-risk assets in the financial crisis. The reason why government bonds have become \"toxic\" is that the continuous rate hike of the Federal Reserve has led to a decline in the value of the bond market. Some banks that fail to manage interest rate risks well face huge floating losses, and the superimposed outflow of deposits leads to poor liquidity. When long-term debts are not due, they may be forced to sell their debts at a loss to cope with depositors' withdrawals.</b></p><p>U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Chairman Gruenberg has previously said,<b>As of the end of 2022, the floating loss of the U.S. banking industry in bond investment will be as high as US $620 billion.</b></p><p>Even if banks can avoid floating losses from turning into real losses, or have enough capital to absorb floating losses, concerns about bank liquidity may induce a run on depositors.</p><p>Silicon Valley Bank is a gory example. Most of its client funds come from demand deposits with tech companies. Moreover, a fairly high proportion of the deposit base is not protected by deposit insurance.</p><p>Such depositors are not bound by services such as escrow, cash management or clearing, are sensitive to interest rates and easily transferable. If there is any doubt about the solvency of the bank, depositors will rush away at the first time. Silicon Valley Bank was withdrawn $42 billion in one day, directly causing it to fall into a liquidity crisis.</p><p>Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro Research told the media that if it weren't for the banking crisis, the CPI data that did not cool down this week should have caused the Fed to rate hike by 50 basis points again.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d64c1638d1ab38980ab4614968480764\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, the latest data from the futures market shows that the market believes that the possibility of no rate hike next week is 34.3%, and the possibility of rate hike's 25 basis points is 65.7%. Before the explosion of Silicon Valley Bank, the probability of rate hike's 50 basis points was as high as 90%.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Soul Torture: Will a \"safe\" American Treasury Bond be the tipping point of the next crisis?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSoul Torture: Will a \"safe\" American Treasury Bond be the tipping point of the next crisis?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-16 21:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>In just one weekend, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapsed one after another, and the banking crisis continued to spread, even affecting Credit Suisse, a century-old investment bank. The Swiss National Bank has announced that it will inject liquidity urgently.</p><p>In this crisis, the Treasury Bond of the United States, which has always been regarded as the safest asset in the world, has become a \"toxic asset\" at the center of the vortex. Some people even think that the US Treasury Bond may trigger the next financial crisis.</p><p>Chris Crawford, fund manager at asset management firm Eric Sturdza Investments, said in a recent report:</p><p><b>\"The 2008 financial crisis was triggered by'ninja loans' issued to people who had no income, no jobs, and no fixed assets, and the'toxic 'asset that triggered the next crisis will be government bonds!\"</b>Of course,<b>This is not to say that there are any similarities between the U.S. Treasury Bond and the high-risk assets in the financial crisis. The reason why government bonds have become \"toxic\" is that the continuous rate hike of the Federal Reserve has led to a decline in the value of the bond market. Some banks that fail to manage interest rate risks well face huge floating losses, and the superimposed outflow of deposits leads to poor liquidity. When long-term debts are not due, they may be forced to sell their debts at a loss to cope with depositors' withdrawals.</b></p><p>U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Chairman Gruenberg has previously said,<b>As of the end of 2022, the floating loss of the U.S. banking industry in bond investment will be as high as US $620 billion.</b></p><p>Even if banks can avoid floating losses from turning into real losses, or have enough capital to absorb floating losses, concerns about bank liquidity may induce a run on depositors.</p><p>Silicon Valley Bank is a gory example. Most of its client funds come from demand deposits with tech companies. Moreover, a fairly high proportion of the deposit base is not protected by deposit insurance.</p><p>Such depositors are not bound by services such as escrow, cash management or clearing, are sensitive to interest rates and easily transferable. If there is any doubt about the solvency of the bank, depositors will rush away at the first time. Silicon Valley Bank was withdrawn $42 billion in one day, directly causing it to fall into a liquidity crisis.</p><p>Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro Research told the media that if it weren't for the banking crisis, the CPI data that did not cool down this week should have caused the Fed to rate hike by 50 basis points again.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d64c1638d1ab38980ab4614968480764\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, the latest data from the futures market shows that the market believes that the possibility of no rate hike next week is 34.3%, and the possibility of rate hike's 25 basis points is 65.7%. Before the explosion of Silicon Valley Bank, the probability of rate hike's 50 basis points was as high as 90%.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3684181\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfe8ba21c8b5ac2b562fdf822ed7fcb2","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3684181","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1114791300","content_text":"短短一个周末，硅谷银行和签字银行相继倒闭，银行业危机持续蔓延，甚至已波及百年投行瑞信。瑞士央行已宣布，将为其紧急注入流动性。在这场危机中，一直被视为全球最安全的资产——美国国债成了漩涡中心的“有毒资产”。有观点甚至认为，美国国债可能引爆下一场金融危机。资管机构Eric Sturdza Investments的基金经理Chris Crawford在近期发布的报告中表示：“引爆2008年金融危机是那些发给没有收入、没有工作、没有固定资产的人的‘忍者贷款’，而引爆下一次危机的‘有毒’资产将是政府债券！”当然，这并不是说美国国债和金融危机中的高风险资产有什么相似之处，政府债券之所以变得“有毒”，是因为美联储连续加息，导致债券市场价值下跌，部分未能管理好利率风险的银行面临巨额浮亏，叠加存款流出导致其流动性较差，长期债务还未到期时，可能就要被迫亏本出售债务应对储户提款。美国联邦存款保险公司主席格伦伯格此前曾表示，截止2022年末，美国银行业在债券投资上的浮亏高达6200亿美元。即使银行可以避免浮亏变为实损，或者有足够的资本消化浮亏，对银行流动性的担忧也可能诱发储户挤兑。硅谷银行就是一个血淋淋的例子。其大部分客户资金来自科技公司的活期存款。而且存款基数中有相当高的比例不受存款保险保障。这样的存款人不受托管、现金管理或清算等服务的约束，对利率敏感，容易转移。如果对银行的偿付能力有疑问，储户会第一时间抢跑。硅谷银行在一天就内被提走420亿美元，直接致其陷入流动性危机。Renaissance Macro Research的Neil Dutta对媒体称，如果不是银行业的危机，本周未见降温的CPI数据，原本应该会使美联储再次加息50个基点。但期货市场最新数据显示，市场认为下周不加息的可能性为34.3%，加息25个基点的可能性为65.7%，硅谷银行爆雷前，加息50基点概率一度高达90%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2426,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943050828,"gmtCreate":1678980074264,"gmtModify":1678980078835,"author":{"id":"4094983188358330","authorId":"4094983188358330","name":"我是梦幻金钱战士","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/99cba128d11b8be74b1f95636cd22ed7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094983188358330","authorIdStr":"4094983188358330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌👌","listText":"👌👌","text":"👌👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943050828","repostId":"1149330042","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149330042","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1678975576,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1149330042?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-16 22:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"What is the outcome of the Credit Suisse crisis? JPMorgan envisions three scenarios","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149330042","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"瑞信的危机最可能以该公司被对手瑞银收购告终。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Han Xuyang</p><p>Regarding how the Credit Suisse crisis will develop in the future, JPMorgan Chase envisages three plans, and believes that the Credit Suisse crisis is most likely to end with the company being acquired by rival UBS.</p><p>On Wednesday, JPMorgan analyst Kian Abouhossein and others put forward three scenarios for the future of Credit Suisse.<b>The most likely one is to be acquired by rival UBS</b>。 Analysts also said that given the market concentration of Credit Suisse and UBS, the Swiss banking business worth 10 billion Swiss francs (about 10.8 billion US dollars) may be listed or spun off after UBS buys Credit Suisse.</p><p>Abouhossein said in a note that Credit Suisse's capital position is not a problem, but the current situation is that the market's confidence in its investment banking strategy continues to have problems and its business continues to erode. \"Maintaining the status quo is no longer an option\".</p><p>Abouhossein is cautious on Credit Suisse, with a Neutral or Underweight rating on the stock for nearly two years. He warned last month that the bank was deteriorating faster than expected, and the stock has fallen 26% since then.</p><p>The media quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that in the negotiations between Credit Suisse and Swiss authorities on how to stabilize the bank, the long-term cooperation between Credit Suisse and UBS is one of the options discussed. UBS CEO Ralph Hamers on Wednesday declined to answer any \"hypothetical\" questions about Credit Suisse.</p><p>Credit Suisse CEO Ulrich Koerner said in a memo to employees on Thursday that the bank will remain focused on its turnaround transformation plan, citing an improvement in Credit Suisse's liquidity coverage ratio and recent financing.</p><p>Furthermore,<b>JPMorgan Chase also listed a possible scenario for Credit Suisse to close its investment banking business, but at the same time said that this move may not be enough to alleviate market concerns. The last possible scenario is for the Swiss National Bank to step in, provide full deposit guarantee or inject equity, but analysts also point out that this will seriously dilute the rights and interests of existing shareholders.</b></p><p>KBW analysts also support the view that Credit Suisse is undergoing a major restructuring. The most likely outcome, they wrote, is a spin-off, with further asset sales to \"simplify the bank.\"</p><p>Bank of America analyst Alastair Ryan believes that,<b>The support from the Swiss National Bank is a clear signal that Credit Suisse will continue to operate in its current form.</b>Alastair Ryan said: \"In effect, the regulatory authorities provided support through this statement, but did not change the structure or the nature of Credit Suisse's continuing operations. Bank of America is one of only two companies that still give Credit Suisse a\" buy \"rating.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What is the outcome of the Credit Suisse crisis? JPMorgan envisions three scenarios</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat is the outcome of the Credit Suisse crisis? JPMorgan envisions three scenarios\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-16 22:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Han Xuyang</p><p>Regarding how the Credit Suisse crisis will develop in the future, JPMorgan Chase envisages three plans, and believes that the Credit Suisse crisis is most likely to end with the company being acquired by rival UBS.</p><p>On Wednesday, JPMorgan analyst Kian Abouhossein and others put forward three scenarios for the future of Credit Suisse.<b>The most likely one is to be acquired by rival UBS</b>。 Analysts also said that given the market concentration of Credit Suisse and UBS, the Swiss banking business worth 10 billion Swiss francs (about 10.8 billion US dollars) may be listed or spun off after UBS buys Credit Suisse.</p><p>Abouhossein said in a note that Credit Suisse's capital position is not a problem, but the current situation is that the market's confidence in its investment banking strategy continues to have problems and its business continues to erode. \"Maintaining the status quo is no longer an option\".</p><p>Abouhossein is cautious on Credit Suisse, with a Neutral or Underweight rating on the stock for nearly two years. He warned last month that the bank was deteriorating faster than expected, and the stock has fallen 26% since then.</p><p>The media quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that in the negotiations between Credit Suisse and Swiss authorities on how to stabilize the bank, the long-term cooperation between Credit Suisse and UBS is one of the options discussed. UBS CEO Ralph Hamers on Wednesday declined to answer any \"hypothetical\" questions about Credit Suisse.</p><p>Credit Suisse CEO Ulrich Koerner said in a memo to employees on Thursday that the bank will remain focused on its turnaround transformation plan, citing an improvement in Credit Suisse's liquidity coverage ratio and recent financing.</p><p>Furthermore,<b>JPMorgan Chase also listed a possible scenario for Credit Suisse to close its investment banking business, but at the same time said that this move may not be enough to alleviate market concerns. The last possible scenario is for the Swiss National Bank to step in, provide full deposit guarantee or inject equity, but analysts also point out that this will seriously dilute the rights and interests of existing shareholders.</b></p><p>KBW analysts also support the view that Credit Suisse is undergoing a major restructuring. The most likely outcome, they wrote, is a spin-off, with further asset sales to \"simplify the bank.\"</p><p>Bank of America analyst Alastair Ryan believes that,<b>The support from the Swiss National Bank is a clear signal that Credit Suisse will continue to operate in its current form.</b>Alastair Ryan said: \"In effect, the regulatory authorities provided support through this statement, but did not change the structure or the nature of Credit Suisse's continuing operations. Bank of America is one of only two companies that still give Credit Suisse a\" buy \"rating.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3684219\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/875d82c9e8c668ce8d421b0f139c1129","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3684219","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1149330042","content_text":"作者：韩旭阳对于瑞信危机后续如何发展，摩根大通设想了三个方案，并认为瑞信的危机最可能以该公司被对手瑞银收购告终。周三，摩根大通分析师 Kian Abouhossein 等对瑞信的未来提出了三种设想，其中最有可能的是被对手瑞银集团收购。分析师们还表示，鉴于瑞信和瑞银的市场集中度，在瑞银收购瑞信后，价值100亿瑞士法郎（约合108亿美元）的瑞士银行业务可能会上市或分拆。Abouhossein 在一份报告中称，瑞信的资本状况不是问题，但目前的情况是，市场对其投资银行战略的信心持续出现问题，其业务也在持续受到侵蚀，“维持现状不再是一种选择”。Abouhossein 对瑞士信贷持谨慎态度，近两年来对该股的评级为中性或减持。他上个月警告称，该银行的恶化速度快于预期，此后该股已经下跌了26%。媒体援引知情人士透露，在瑞信与瑞士当局就如何稳定该行的谈判中，瑞信与瑞银的长期合作是讨论的选项之一。瑞银首席执行官 Ralph Hamers 周三拒绝回答有关瑞信的任何“假设性”问题。瑞信首席执行官 Ulrich Koerner 周四在给员工的备忘录中表示，该行将继续专注于其扭亏为盈的转型计划，理由是瑞信的流动性覆盖率有所提高，而且最近进行了融资。此外，摩根大通还列出了一种可能情况是瑞信关闭投行业务，但同时表示，此举可能不足以减轻市场的担忧。最后一种可能情况是瑞士央行介入，提供全额存款担保或注入股本，但分析师也指出，这将严重稀释现有股东的权益。KBW 分析师也支持瑞信正在进行重大重组的观点。他们写道，最有可能的结果是分拆，进一步出售资产以“简化银行”。而美国银行分析师 Alastair Ryan 认为，来自瑞士央行的支持是一个明确的信号，即瑞信将以目前的形式继续经营下去。Alastair Ryan 称：“实际上，监管部门通过这份声明提供了支持，但没有改变瑞信的结构或继续经营的性质。”美国银行是仅有的两家仍给予瑞信“买入”评级的公司之一。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2083,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}