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我是梦幻金钱战士
我是梦幻金钱战士
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2023-03-24
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我是梦幻金钱战士
我是梦幻金钱战士
·
2023-03-24
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Federal Reserve official Bostic: rate hike made no rash decision; there was "a lot of debate."
亚特兰大联邦储备银行行长Raphael Bostic称,本周在银行业危机期间加息25个基点的决定绝非轻率做出。“有很多辩论,这不是一个直截了当的决定,但最终,我们做出的结论是有明确的迹象表明银行体系稳
Federal Reserve official Bostic: rate hike made no rash decision; there was "a lot of debate."
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我是梦幻金钱战士
我是梦幻金钱战士
·
2023-03-24
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U.S. durable goods orders fell 1% month-on-month in February, marking the largest drop in two years.
尽管核心资本货物订单有所增加,但这些数据表明,美联储一年来的大举加息已经抑制了投资计划。在经济不确定性上升和企业利润增长放缓的情况下,这种情况可能进一步恶化。由于对客机和新车的需求减少,美国2月份制造
U.S. durable goods orders fell 1% month-on-month in February, marking the largest drop in two years.
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我是梦幻金钱战士
我是梦幻金钱战士
·
2023-03-24
👌
U.S. durable goods orders fell 1% month-on-month in February, marking the largest drop in two years.
尽管核心资本货物订单有所增加,但这些数据表明,美联储一年来的大举加息已经抑制了投资计划。在经济不确定性上升和企业利润增长放缓的情况下,这种情况可能进一步恶化。由于对客机和新车的需求减少,美国2月份制造
U.S. durable goods orders fell 1% month-on-month in February, marking the largest drop in two years.
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我是梦幻金钱战士
我是梦幻金钱战士
·
2023-03-24
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Banking crisis: Where will the next domino fall?
过去两周,危机突然升温,伴随着熊市,标准普尔500指数再次贬值,在本文中将主要关注银行系统和银行的崩溃。但银行在经济中扮演着重要角色,而陷入困境的银行可能会成为危机的负面催化剂。01概述基本上有两个主
Banking crisis: Where will the next domino fall?
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我是梦幻金钱战士
我是梦幻金钱战士
·
2023-03-20
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Credit Suisse's acquisition of the century, Saudi Arabia and investors became suckers
在过去的两个周末里,美国和欧洲金融圈发生的事情可以拍出一部美剧。电视剧第一幕以硅谷银行爆雷开始,危机带来的恐慌情绪引起美国中小银行股的大抛售,这是08年金融危机后未曾出现过的恐慌现象,最后美联储紧急出
Credit Suisse's acquisition of the century, Saudi Arabia and investors became suckers
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我是梦幻金钱战士
我是梦幻金钱战士
·
2023-03-20
👌
Credit Suisse's acquisition of the century, Saudi Arabia and investors became suckers
在过去的两个周末里,美国和欧洲金融圈发生的事情可以拍出一部美剧。电视剧第一幕以硅谷银行爆雷开始,危机带来的恐慌情绪引起美国中小银行股的大抛售,这是08年金融危机后未曾出现过的恐慌现象,最后美联储紧急出
Credit Suisse's acquisition of the century, Saudi Arabia and investors became suckers
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我是梦幻金钱战士
我是梦幻金钱战士
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2023-03-18
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UBS is reportedly seeking support from Swiss authorities for any transaction with Credit Suisse.
3月18日,据知情人士透露,瑞银集团要求瑞士政府在收购瑞信集团时提供支持。瑞银正在讨论政府将在任何交易中承担某些法律费用或其他具体损失的情况。知情人士称,一种可能的情况是,瑞银将收购瑞信,以获得其财富
UBS is reportedly seeking support from Swiss authorities for any transaction with Credit Suisse.
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我是梦幻金钱战士
我是梦幻金钱战士
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2023-03-16
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我是梦幻金钱战士
我是梦幻金钱战士
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2023-03-16
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What was the outcome of the Credit Suisse crisis? JPMorgan Chase envisioned three options
瑞信的危机最可能以该公司被对手瑞银收购告终。
What was the outcome of the Credit Suisse crisis? JPMorgan Chase envisioned three options
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He was referring to the Fed's aggressive rate hike under then-Federal Reserve Chairman Volcker, which to some extent triggered a sharp economic downturn.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Federal Reserve official Bostic: rate hike made no rash decision; there was \"a lot of debate.\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFederal Reserve official Bostic: rate hike made no rash decision; there was \"a lot of debate.\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-24 22:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic said that this week's decision to raise rate hike by 25 basis points during the banking crisis was by no means a rash one.</p><p>“There has been a lot of debate, and this is not a straightforward decision, but ultimately, we have concluded that there are clear signs that the banking system is solid and resilient,” Bostic said on Friday. \"Against this backdrop, inflation remains too high.\"</p><p>Bostic said,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>The collapse, less than two weeks before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, has created a lot of uncertainty, and some policymakers prefer to wait and see rather than rate hike.</p><p>Bostic said, \"We didn't think the situation would get worse over the weekend before the meeting, and I agree with that view, which makes me believe we can handle it.\"</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told reporters at a press conference following Wednesday's policy meeting that a suspension of rate hike had been considered a few days before the meeting, but there was a strong consensus on rate hike during the meeting. Powell also emphasized that the U.S. banking system is \"solid and resilient.\"</p><p>Bostic reiterated Powell's assessment, stating that inflation is too high and therefore the economy needs to slow down.</p><p>\"There is no recession in my baseline scenario,\" Bostic said. But if the U.S. economy falls into recession, \"I hope it will be very different from the early 1980s,\" he added. He was referring to the Fed's aggressive rate hike under then-Federal Reserve Chairman Volcker, which to some extent triggered a sharp economic downturn.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2023-03-24/doc-imymyuvx9706264.shtml\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a1de7aced7748879f251930783a3cb1","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4588":"碎股","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2023-03-24/doc-imymyuvx9706264.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2321111896","content_text":"亚特兰大联邦储备银行行长Raphael Bostic称,本周在银行业危机期间加息25个基点的决定绝非轻率做出。“有很多辩论,这不是一个直截了当的决定,但最终,我们做出的结论是有明确的迹象表明银行体系稳固且坚韧,” Bostic周五表示。“在这种背景下,通胀仍然过高。 ”Bostic表示,硅谷银行在联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)开会不到两周之前倒闭,造成了很多不确定性,一些决策者希望观望而不是加息。Bostic说:“在会议前的周末我们没有认为情况会变得更糟,我认同这个看法,这让我相信我们可以应付。”美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在周三政策会议后的新闻发布会上对记者表示,会议前几天已经考虑过暂停加息,但在会议期间,大家对加息的共识很强。鲍威尔也强调美国银行体系“稳固且坚韧”。Bostic重申了鲍威尔的这种判断,并表示通胀太高,因此需要让经济放缓。“在我的基本情景里面没有经济衰退,”Bostic说。但是如果美国经济陷入衰退,“我希望会与1980年代初截然不同,” 他补充道。他指的是在时任美联储主席沃尔克的领导下,美联储激进加息,一定程度上引发了经济急剧下滑。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"QID":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"SDS":0.6,".IXIC":1,"SH":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,".DJI":1,"SDOW":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SPY":1,"OEF":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"UPRO":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5261,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943700960,"gmtCreate":1679668310450,"gmtModify":1679668314077,"author":{"id":"4094983188358330","authorId":"4094983188358330","name":"我是梦幻金钱战士","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/99cba128d11b8be74b1f95636cd22ed7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094983188358330","idStr":"4094983188358330"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943700960","repostId":"1161966319","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161966319","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1679667723,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161966319?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-24 22:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. durable goods orders fell 1% month-on-month in February, marking the largest drop in two years.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161966319","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"尽管核心资本货物订单有所增加,但这些数据表明,美联储一年来的大举加息已经抑制了投资计划。在经济不确定性上升和企业利润增长放缓的情况下,这种情况可能进一步恶化。由于对客机和新车的需求减少,美国2月份制造","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Despite the increase in core capital goods orders, these data suggest that the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike over the past year has dampened investment plans. This situation may worsen further amid rising economic uncertainty and slowing corporate profit growth.</b>U.S. manufacturing orders continued to decline in February due to reduced demand for passenger planes and new cars.</p><p>On Friday, March 24, the U.S. Department of Commerce released data showing that the preliminary reading of U.S. durable goods orders for February was -1% month-on-month, lower than the market expectation of 0.2%, the largest drop since February 2021, but a significant rebound from the previous reading of -4.5%. Analysts had expected a moderate rebound in February data after a sharp drop in January data.</p><p>Durable goods refer to products such as cars, electrical appliances, and computers that can be used for at least three years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/702d3d5d4f0e3aad88b4f95fc2171aa0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Orders for core durable goods, excluding transportation, rose 0% month-on-month at the preliminary reading, lower than the previous reading of 0.4% after an upward revision and the largest increase since March 2022, with the previous reading revised downward to -0.4%. This figure is used to help calculate equipment investment in the government's GDP report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db82bf213ec2018c112a0835fc37f07c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In addition, after excluding the 0.8% increase in the value of non-defense core capital goods orders for aircraft in January, the growth rate slowed to 0.2% in February, but it was still higher than the expected -0.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/311d5f7fa7b5683c9da0b98494a8a1ee\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Despite the increase in core capital goods orders, these data suggest that the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike over the past year has dampened investment plans. This situation may worsen further amid rising economic uncertainty and slowing corporate profit growth.</p><p>Apart from an increase in core capital goods orders, other orders were largely weak. Orders for computers, transportation equipment, machinery, and communications equipment all declined. However, business investment rose for the second consecutive month, indicating that the industrial side of the economy is still growing.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. durable goods orders fell 1% month-on-month in February, marking the largest drop in two years.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. durable goods orders fell 1% month-on-month in February, marking the largest drop in two years.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-24 22:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Despite the increase in core capital goods orders, these data suggest that the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike over the past year has dampened investment plans. This situation may worsen further amid rising economic uncertainty and slowing corporate profit growth.</b>U.S. manufacturing orders continued to decline in February due to reduced demand for passenger planes and new cars.</p><p>On Friday, March 24, the U.S. Department of Commerce released data showing that the preliminary reading of U.S. durable goods orders for February was -1% month-on-month, lower than the market expectation of 0.2%, the largest drop since February 2021, but a significant rebound from the previous reading of -4.5%. Analysts had expected a moderate rebound in February data after a sharp drop in January data.</p><p>Durable goods refer to products such as cars, electrical appliances, and computers that can be used for at least three years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/702d3d5d4f0e3aad88b4f95fc2171aa0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Orders for core durable goods, excluding transportation, rose 0% month-on-month at the preliminary reading, lower than the previous reading of 0.4% after an upward revision and the largest increase since March 2022, with the previous reading revised downward to -0.4%. This figure is used to help calculate equipment investment in the government's GDP report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db82bf213ec2018c112a0835fc37f07c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In addition, after excluding the 0.8% increase in the value of non-defense core capital goods orders for aircraft in January, the growth rate slowed to 0.2% in February, but it was still higher than the expected -0.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/311d5f7fa7b5683c9da0b98494a8a1ee\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Despite the increase in core capital goods orders, these data suggest that the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike over the past year has dampened investment plans. This situation may worsen further amid rising economic uncertainty and slowing corporate profit growth.</p><p>Apart from an increase in core capital goods orders, other orders were largely weak. Orders for computers, transportation equipment, machinery, and communications equipment all declined. However, business investment rose for the second consecutive month, indicating that the industrial side of the economy is still growing.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3684848\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3684848","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161966319","content_text":"尽管核心资本货物订单有所增加,但这些数据表明,美联储一年来的大举加息已经抑制了投资计划。在经济不确定性上升和企业利润增长放缓的情况下,这种情况可能进一步恶化。由于对客机和新车的需求减少,美国2月份制造业订单继续下滑。3月24日周五,美国商务部公布数据显示,美国2月耐用品订单环比初值-1%,低于市场预期的0.2%,是自2021年2月以来的最大降幅,但相比前值的-4.5%大幅回升。在1月份的数据暴跌之后,分析师们原本预计2月的数据将温和反弹。耐用品是指像汽车、电器和电脑这样至少可以使用三年的产品。不包括运输的核心耐用品订单环比初值增长0%,低于上修后的前值0.4%,也是自2022年3月以来的最大涨幅,前值下修为-0.4%。这一数字用于帮助计算政府GDP报告中的设备投资。此外,扣除飞机非国防核心资本货物订单价值在1月增长0.8%后,2月份增幅放缓至0.2%,但仍高于预期的-0.2%。尽管核心资本货物订单有所增加,但这些数据表明,美联储一年来的大举加息已经抑制了投资计划。在经济不确定性上升和企业利润增长放缓的情况下,这种情况可能进一步恶化。除了核心资本货物订单出现增长外,其余订单在很大程度上都比较疲软。电脑、运输设备、机械和通讯设备的订单量均有所下降。但企业投资连续第二个月上升,表明经济的工业方面仍在增长。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5426,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943700059,"gmtCreate":1679668300972,"gmtModify":1679668304919,"author":{"id":"4094983188358330","authorId":"4094983188358330","name":"我是梦幻金钱战士","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/99cba128d11b8be74b1f95636cd22ed7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094983188358330","idStr":"4094983188358330"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943700059","repostId":"1161966319","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161966319","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1679667723,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161966319?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-24 22:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. durable goods orders fell 1% month-on-month in February, marking the largest drop in two years.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161966319","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"尽管核心资本货物订单有所增加,但这些数据表明,美联储一年来的大举加息已经抑制了投资计划。在经济不确定性上升和企业利润增长放缓的情况下,这种情况可能进一步恶化。由于对客机和新车的需求减少,美国2月份制造","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Despite the increase in core capital goods orders, these data suggest that the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike over the past year has dampened investment plans. This situation may worsen further amid rising economic uncertainty and slowing corporate profit growth.</b>U.S. manufacturing orders continued to decline in February due to reduced demand for passenger planes and new cars.</p><p>On Friday, March 24, the U.S. Department of Commerce released data showing that the preliminary reading of U.S. durable goods orders for February was -1% month-on-month, lower than the market expectation of 0.2%, the largest drop since February 2021, but a significant rebound from the previous reading of -4.5%. Analysts had expected a moderate rebound in February data after a sharp drop in January data.</p><p>Durable goods refer to products such as cars, electrical appliances, and computers that can be used for at least three years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/702d3d5d4f0e3aad88b4f95fc2171aa0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Orders for core durable goods, excluding transportation, rose 0% month-on-month at the preliminary reading, lower than the previous reading of 0.4% after an upward revision and the largest increase since March 2022, with the previous reading revised downward to -0.4%. This figure is used to help calculate equipment investment in the government's GDP report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db82bf213ec2018c112a0835fc37f07c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In addition, after excluding the 0.8% increase in the value of non-defense core capital goods orders for aircraft in January, the growth rate slowed to 0.2% in February, but it was still higher than the expected -0.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/311d5f7fa7b5683c9da0b98494a8a1ee\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Despite the increase in core capital goods orders, these data suggest that the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike over the past year has dampened investment plans. This situation may worsen further amid rising economic uncertainty and slowing corporate profit growth.</p><p>Apart from an increase in core capital goods orders, other orders were largely weak. Orders for computers, transportation equipment, machinery, and communications equipment all declined. However, business investment rose for the second consecutive month, indicating that the industrial side of the economy is still growing.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. durable goods orders fell 1% month-on-month in February, marking the largest drop in two years.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. durable goods orders fell 1% month-on-month in February, marking the largest drop in two years.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-24 22:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Despite the increase in core capital goods orders, these data suggest that the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike over the past year has dampened investment plans. This situation may worsen further amid rising economic uncertainty and slowing corporate profit growth.</b>U.S. manufacturing orders continued to decline in February due to reduced demand for passenger planes and new cars.</p><p>On Friday, March 24, the U.S. Department of Commerce released data showing that the preliminary reading of U.S. durable goods orders for February was -1% month-on-month, lower than the market expectation of 0.2%, the largest drop since February 2021, but a significant rebound from the previous reading of -4.5%. Analysts had expected a moderate rebound in February data after a sharp drop in January data.</p><p>Durable goods refer to products such as cars, electrical appliances, and computers that can be used for at least three years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/702d3d5d4f0e3aad88b4f95fc2171aa0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Orders for core durable goods, excluding transportation, rose 0% month-on-month at the preliminary reading, lower than the previous reading of 0.4% after an upward revision and the largest increase since March 2022, with the previous reading revised downward to -0.4%. This figure is used to help calculate equipment investment in the government's GDP report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db82bf213ec2018c112a0835fc37f07c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In addition, after excluding the 0.8% increase in the value of non-defense core capital goods orders for aircraft in January, the growth rate slowed to 0.2% in February, but it was still higher than the expected -0.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/311d5f7fa7b5683c9da0b98494a8a1ee\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Despite the increase in core capital goods orders, these data suggest that the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike over the past year has dampened investment plans. This situation may worsen further amid rising economic uncertainty and slowing corporate profit growth.</p><p>Apart from an increase in core capital goods orders, other orders were largely weak. Orders for computers, transportation equipment, machinery, and communications equipment all declined. However, business investment rose for the second consecutive month, indicating that the industrial side of the economy is still growing.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3684848\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3684848","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161966319","content_text":"尽管核心资本货物订单有所增加,但这些数据表明,美联储一年来的大举加息已经抑制了投资计划。在经济不确定性上升和企业利润增长放缓的情况下,这种情况可能进一步恶化。由于对客机和新车的需求减少,美国2月份制造业订单继续下滑。3月24日周五,美国商务部公布数据显示,美国2月耐用品订单环比初值-1%,低于市场预期的0.2%,是自2021年2月以来的最大降幅,但相比前值的-4.5%大幅回升。在1月份的数据暴跌之后,分析师们原本预计2月的数据将温和反弹。耐用品是指像汽车、电器和电脑这样至少可以使用三年的产品。不包括运输的核心耐用品订单环比初值增长0%,低于上修后的前值0.4%,也是自2022年3月以来的最大涨幅,前值下修为-0.4%。这一数字用于帮助计算政府GDP报告中的设备投资。此外,扣除飞机非国防核心资本货物订单价值在1月增长0.8%后,2月份增幅放缓至0.2%,但仍高于预期的-0.2%。尽管核心资本货物订单有所增加,但这些数据表明,美联储一年来的大举加息已经抑制了投资计划。在经济不确定性上升和企业利润增长放缓的情况下,这种情况可能进一步恶化。除了核心资本货物订单出现增长外,其余订单在很大程度上都比较疲软。电脑、运输设备、机械和通讯设备的订单量均有所下降。但企业投资连续第二个月上升,表明经济的工业方面仍在增长。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5946,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943477426,"gmtCreate":1679668287466,"gmtModify":1679668291458,"author":{"id":"4094983188358330","authorId":"4094983188358330","name":"我是梦幻金钱战士","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/99cba128d11b8be74b1f95636cd22ed7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094983188358330","idStr":"4094983188358330"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943477426","repostId":"2321098115","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2321098115","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1679668395,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2321098115?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-24 22:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Banking crisis: Where will the next domino fall?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2321098115","media":"美股研究社","summary":"过去两周,危机突然升温,伴随着熊市,标准普尔500指数再次贬值,在本文中将主要关注银行系统和银行的崩溃。但银行在经济中扮演着重要角色,而陷入困境的银行可能会成为危机的负面催化剂。01概述基本上有两个主","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Over the past two weeks, the crisis has suddenly escalated, with the S&P 500 index depreciating again amid a bear market. This article will focus on the banking system and the collapse of banks. But banks play an important role in the economy, and troubled banks could become a negative catalyst for the crisis.</p><p>01</p><p>overview</p><p>There are basically two main news reports. On the one hand, Switzerland<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>The group is being surpassed by UBS Group; On the other hand, several American banks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>When it went bankrupt at the urging of competitors, the government and the Federal Reserve intervened.</p><p>Let's start with Credit Suisse. The Swiss bank's troubles are not surprising, as reports of the company's troubles had been circulating for several months. However, in recent days, the situation has suddenly become more dramatic. Last week, it was reported that the Swiss National Bank and FINMA (the Swiss financial regulator) would provide Credit Suisse with an emergency loan of 50 billion Swiss francs (if necessary). Over the weekend—something that always happens when markets are closed on weekends—UBS agreed to buy Credit Suisse for $3.25 billion, about half its previous share price but far above the initial $1 billion offer, which Credit Suisse rejected.</p><p>But it's not just Credit Suisse that's in trouble – the week before,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>The collapse brought the US banking crisis to a temporary climax. It might not be surprising to see Credit Suisse in trouble, as reports of the company's troubles had been published months ago, but certainly no one could have predicted a bank failure in the United States (although bank failures are one of the possible events in every crisis and bear market).</p><p>Just like in similar situations in the past, we saw the \"classic\" reaction. The Federal Reserve responded by providing additional liquidity to banks through the use of the Bank Term Financing Program (BTFP). Another classic pattern that emerges in this context is when officials publicly announce how strong and safe the banking system is, and people don't need to worry.</p><p>Last Sunday, Janet Yellen, Jerome Powell, and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Chairman Martin Glenberg informed the public that Silicon Valley Bank depositors would receive all their funds on Monday, a move that also reassured the market. We have seen similar moves in past crises. As a German, I particularly remember a similar statement from German officials in 2008, assuring the German public that their deposits were safe, just like hell after the collapse of Lehman Brothers.</p><p>Although these reactions are doing their job—restoring confidence in the banking system and financial markets—they are sometimes short-lived and a warning sign of what is to come. In a well-functioning market, such statements are unnecessary when market participants are full of confidence (or even euphoria) in the prospects or safety of banks. The fact that the Federal Reserve has to intervene is also not a good sign, although such interventions sometimes work—such as in 2020, when a lot of liquidity was provided. However, in the medium term (perhaps three years from now), the unintended consequences of injecting huge amounts of money into the market may become apparent (because speculating with this money has led to bad decisions, high-risk bets, and now defaults and bank failures).</p><p>02</p><p>Question: Trust and Confidence</p><p>A major problem for banks (and similar institutions) is the role of trust and confidence—especially since many people (including investors) misunderstand the importance of trust and confidence. While trust is crucial when it comes to whether people will deposit or withdraw money at a bank, it is difficult to measure confidence.</p><p>This is particularly problematic because the situation could change within days: panic could quickly spread throughout the country (or the world), and depositors who trusted banks last week could suddenly panic and try to withdraw their funds. Therefore, simply looking at the balance sheet is not enough, because bank runs and people's loss of trust will cause many banks to collapse. The collapse of several institutions, reports from several major news headlines and national television stations, may be enough to trigger panic.</p><p>A recent study showed the vulnerability of the U.S. banking system and how many banks would be technically insolvent in the event of a bank run. If we assume the worst-case scenario is that 100% of uninsured deposits are withdrawn, then more than 1,600 U.S. banks will fail (4,237 banks in total, according to FDIC data starting in 2021). But even assuming that only 30% of uninsured deposits are withdrawn, 106 banks would fail.</p><p>The problem is that when customers (for whatever reason) lose confidence and start withdrawing money, even well-capitalized banks can suddenly face significant trouble. A major upheaval in the banking system does not necessarily mean that banks will completely collapse. Withdrawing funds will cause problems earlier.</p><p>03</p><p>Problem: Non-performing</p><p>Although bank runs occur from time to time and may force banks to yield (which have indeed happened in the past few decades), they are not the main reason for bank failures. Bank failures caused by bank runs were more common in the first half of the 20th century (especially during the Great Depression, when thousands of banks failed), and after the Great Depression, systems were established to prevent bank runs.</p><p>Today, banks often fail because they have bad assets or the wrong assets at the wrong time (and often ignore or violate risk management principles). Now, with interest rates rising sharply over the past few quarters, banks may have the wrong loans on their books. Some banks—especially in Europe—may hold government bonds with (near) zero interest rates in their portfolios, and as interest rates rise, banks are forced to pay higher interest rates to depositors, which will cause problems over time.</p><p>The second typical problem is that asset prices are falling, and banks have so-called toxic assets on their books. During the Great Financial Crisis, it was subprime mortgages (or financial products based on subprime mortgages) that turned assets (or loans) into bad loans because banks lent money to people who were unable to repay their mortgages. Furthermore, assets may be completely mispriced and their value is declining—this usually happens after a bubble because banks may buy stocks (or other traded assets) at the wrong time at a price exceeding the asset's intrinsic value.</p><p>04</p><p>Complex and interconnected systems</p><p>So far, we have studied different risks in isolation. However, these events rarely occur alone. They typically reinforce each other, and a chain reaction (or domino effect) can quickly occur within the financial system, leading to a banking crisis. The World Bank writes:</p><p>A (systemic) banking crisis occurs when many banks in a country simultaneously face serious solvency or liquidity problems—either because all banks are subject to the same external shock, or because the failure of one bank or a group of banks spreads to other banks in the system. More specifically, a systemic banking crisis refers to a large number of defaults by a country's businesses and financial sector.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">Financial institutions</a>It is difficult for the company to repay the contract on time. It seems obvious that several banks in a country might fail at the same time because they all purchased similar assets that ended up being worth far less than previously estimated, but the spread of bank failures throughout the banking system was not initially so obvious. When a non-financial company goes bankrupt, it has some impact on suppliers and customers, and the supply chain is also disrupted to some extent. But it will not trigger a chain reaction like a bank failure. First, the erosion of trust replaced by panic will quickly spread throughout the banking industry. When one (or several) banks start to fail, you will begin to question whether your bank is safe and may take action to withdraw your investment. Secondly, because banks lend to each other and purchase assets issued by other banks, and there are countless connections between banks, the problem will quickly spread throughout the banking system.</p><p>The banking system, the stock market, and the economy are all complex nonlinear systems, with thousands of nodes and links intertwined in a complex system. I don't know what will happen, but I can see what will happen in a complex nonlinear system, and knowing what will happen is enough to make me very cautious. With so many unresolved issues, analysts still believe that now is not the time to buy bank shares.</p><p>Currently, small regional banks in particular have been hit hard, and in some cases they have lost 50% or more of their value in a very short period of time.</p><p>Now, some may ask whether the crisis has reached its later stages and whether we should start investing. To be honest: No! The answer is still: Not yet! Although problems are beginning to emerge, analysts believe we are not close to the bottom yet—neither in bank stocks nor in the stock market as a whole. Some banks may already seem cheap – especially smaller regional banks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f564a259d8bbaa50f3f576f3c367cc4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p>Although some U.S. banks—including United Bank of America,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo Bank</a>And Bank of America – down 20% or more, but so far their Canadian counterparts have fared better.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bb7c2b23c5266bcc582c6c903c23129\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p>05</p><p>conclusion</p><p>Banks are in trouble, and some are starting to fail. This is just another domino that has fallen, unfortunately, in accordance with the usual pattern of financial crises. Recessions are not always accompanied by bank crises, but bank failures are never a good sign. This is just the next step after early warning signs such as a yield curve inversion or a decline in the number of new housing permits. Of course, I could be wrong; we can always take the opposite view (the number of housing permits surged in February 2023, which does not fit the narrative of the crisis).</p><p>I don't know if we'll see a crisis similar to 2008, nor do I know what role similarly overvalued real estate might play in this crisis. However, so far, many signs suggest that the financial and economic system is facing a severe recession, and I completely agree with Ray Dalio's view:</p><p>I think this is a very classic event in the bubble bursting part of a short-term debt cycle (lasting about 7 years, or about 3 years). In this process, tightening money to curb credit growth and inflation leads to a self-reinforcing debt-credit contraction. This contraction process, through domino-like contagion, continues until banks create loose money, negating the debt-credit contraction, thus generating more new credit and debt, sowing the seeds for the next major debt problem, until these short-term cycles accumulate debt assets and liabilities to an unsustainable level, and the whole thing collapses in debt restructuring and debt monetization (which usually happens about once every 75 years, about 25 years).</body></html></p>","source":"mgyjs","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Banking crisis: Where will the next domino fall?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBanking crisis: Where will the next domino fall?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">美股研究社</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-24 22:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Over the past two weeks, the crisis has suddenly escalated, with the S&P 500 index depreciating again amid a bear market. This article will focus on the banking system and the collapse of banks. But banks play an important role in the economy, and troubled banks could become a negative catalyst for the crisis.</p><p>01</p><p>overview</p><p>There are basically two main news reports. On the one hand, Switzerland<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>The group is being surpassed by UBS Group; On the other hand, several American banks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>When it went bankrupt at the urging of competitors, the government and the Federal Reserve intervened.</p><p>Let's start with Credit Suisse. The Swiss bank's troubles are not surprising, as reports of the company's troubles had been circulating for several months. However, in recent days, the situation has suddenly become more dramatic. Last week, it was reported that the Swiss National Bank and FINMA (the Swiss financial regulator) would provide Credit Suisse with an emergency loan of 50 billion Swiss francs (if necessary). Over the weekend—something that always happens when markets are closed on weekends—UBS agreed to buy Credit Suisse for $3.25 billion, about half its previous share price but far above the initial $1 billion offer, which Credit Suisse rejected.</p><p>But it's not just Credit Suisse that's in trouble – the week before,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>The collapse brought the US banking crisis to a temporary climax. It might not be surprising to see Credit Suisse in trouble, as reports of the company's troubles had been published months ago, but certainly no one could have predicted a bank failure in the United States (although bank failures are one of the possible events in every crisis and bear market).</p><p>Just like in similar situations in the past, we saw the \"classic\" reaction. The Federal Reserve responded by providing additional liquidity to banks through the use of the Bank Term Financing Program (BTFP). Another classic pattern that emerges in this context is when officials publicly announce how strong and safe the banking system is, and people don't need to worry.</p><p>Last Sunday, Janet Yellen, Jerome Powell, and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Chairman Martin Glenberg informed the public that Silicon Valley Bank depositors would receive all their funds on Monday, a move that also reassured the market. We have seen similar moves in past crises. As a German, I particularly remember a similar statement from German officials in 2008, assuring the German public that their deposits were safe, just like hell after the collapse of Lehman Brothers.</p><p>Although these reactions are doing their job—restoring confidence in the banking system and financial markets—they are sometimes short-lived and a warning sign of what is to come. In a well-functioning market, such statements are unnecessary when market participants are full of confidence (or even euphoria) in the prospects or safety of banks. The fact that the Federal Reserve has to intervene is also not a good sign, although such interventions sometimes work—such as in 2020, when a lot of liquidity was provided. However, in the medium term (perhaps three years from now), the unintended consequences of injecting huge amounts of money into the market may become apparent (because speculating with this money has led to bad decisions, high-risk bets, and now defaults and bank failures).</p><p>02</p><p>Question: Trust and Confidence</p><p>A major problem for banks (and similar institutions) is the role of trust and confidence—especially since many people (including investors) misunderstand the importance of trust and confidence. While trust is crucial when it comes to whether people will deposit or withdraw money at a bank, it is difficult to measure confidence.</p><p>This is particularly problematic because the situation could change within days: panic could quickly spread throughout the country (or the world), and depositors who trusted banks last week could suddenly panic and try to withdraw their funds. Therefore, simply looking at the balance sheet is not enough, because bank runs and people's loss of trust will cause many banks to collapse. The collapse of several institutions, reports from several major news headlines and national television stations, may be enough to trigger panic.</p><p>A recent study showed the vulnerability of the U.S. banking system and how many banks would be technically insolvent in the event of a bank run. If we assume the worst-case scenario is that 100% of uninsured deposits are withdrawn, then more than 1,600 U.S. banks will fail (4,237 banks in total, according to FDIC data starting in 2021). But even assuming that only 30% of uninsured deposits are withdrawn, 106 banks would fail.</p><p>The problem is that when customers (for whatever reason) lose confidence and start withdrawing money, even well-capitalized banks can suddenly face significant trouble. A major upheaval in the banking system does not necessarily mean that banks will completely collapse. Withdrawing funds will cause problems earlier.</p><p>03</p><p>Problem: Non-performing</p><p>Although bank runs occur from time to time and may force banks to yield (which have indeed happened in the past few decades), they are not the main reason for bank failures. Bank failures caused by bank runs were more common in the first half of the 20th century (especially during the Great Depression, when thousands of banks failed), and after the Great Depression, systems were established to prevent bank runs.</p><p>Today, banks often fail because they have bad assets or the wrong assets at the wrong time (and often ignore or violate risk management principles). Now, with interest rates rising sharply over the past few quarters, banks may have the wrong loans on their books. Some banks—especially in Europe—may hold government bonds with (near) zero interest rates in their portfolios, and as interest rates rise, banks are forced to pay higher interest rates to depositors, which will cause problems over time.</p><p>The second typical problem is that asset prices are falling, and banks have so-called toxic assets on their books. During the Great Financial Crisis, it was subprime mortgages (or financial products based on subprime mortgages) that turned assets (or loans) into bad loans because banks lent money to people who were unable to repay their mortgages. Furthermore, assets may be completely mispriced and their value is declining—this usually happens after a bubble because banks may buy stocks (or other traded assets) at the wrong time at a price exceeding the asset's intrinsic value.</p><p>04</p><p>Complex and interconnected systems</p><p>So far, we have studied different risks in isolation. However, these events rarely occur alone. They typically reinforce each other, and a chain reaction (or domino effect) can quickly occur within the financial system, leading to a banking crisis. The World Bank writes:</p><p>A (systemic) banking crisis occurs when many banks in a country simultaneously face serious solvency or liquidity problems—either because all banks are subject to the same external shock, or because the failure of one bank or a group of banks spreads to other banks in the system. More specifically, a systemic banking crisis refers to a large number of defaults by a country's businesses and financial sector.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">Financial institutions</a>It is difficult for the company to repay the contract on time. It seems obvious that several banks in a country might fail at the same time because they all purchased similar assets that ended up being worth far less than previously estimated, but the spread of bank failures throughout the banking system was not initially so obvious. When a non-financial company goes bankrupt, it has some impact on suppliers and customers, and the supply chain is also disrupted to some extent. But it will not trigger a chain reaction like a bank failure. First, the erosion of trust replaced by panic will quickly spread throughout the banking industry. When one (or several) banks start to fail, you will begin to question whether your bank is safe and may take action to withdraw your investment. Secondly, because banks lend to each other and purchase assets issued by other banks, and there are countless connections between banks, the problem will quickly spread throughout the banking system.</p><p>The banking system, the stock market, and the economy are all complex nonlinear systems, with thousands of nodes and links intertwined in a complex system. I don't know what will happen, but I can see what will happen in a complex nonlinear system, and knowing what will happen is enough to make me very cautious. With so many unresolved issues, analysts still believe that now is not the time to buy bank shares.</p><p>Currently, small regional banks in particular have been hit hard, and in some cases they have lost 50% or more of their value in a very short period of time.</p><p>Now, some may ask whether the crisis has reached its later stages and whether we should start investing. To be honest: No! The answer is still: Not yet! Although problems are beginning to emerge, analysts believe we are not close to the bottom yet—neither in bank stocks nor in the stock market as a whole. Some banks may already seem cheap – especially smaller regional banks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f564a259d8bbaa50f3f576f3c367cc4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p>Although some U.S. banks—including United Bank of America,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo Bank</a>And Bank of America – down 20% or more, but so far their Canadian counterparts have fared better.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bb7c2b23c5266bcc582c6c903c23129\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p>05</p><p>conclusion</p><p>Banks are in trouble, and some are starting to fail. This is just another domino that has fallen, unfortunately, in accordance with the usual pattern of financial crises. Recessions are not always accompanied by bank crises, but bank failures are never a good sign. This is just the next step after early warning signs such as a yield curve inversion or a decline in the number of new housing permits. Of course, I could be wrong; we can always take the opposite view (the number of housing permits surged in February 2023, which does not fit the narrative of the crisis).</p><p>I don't know if we'll see a crisis similar to 2008, nor do I know what role similarly overvalued real estate might play in this crisis. However, so far, many signs suggest that the financial and economic system is facing a severe recession, and I completely agree with Ray Dalio's view:</p><p>I think this is a very classic event in the bubble bursting part of a short-term debt cycle (lasting about 7 years, or about 3 years). In this process, tightening money to curb credit growth and inflation leads to a self-reinforcing debt-credit contraction. This contraction process, through domino-like contagion, continues until banks create loose money, negating the debt-credit contraction, thus generating more new credit and debt, sowing the seeds for the next major debt problem, until these short-term cycles accumulate debt assets and liabilities to an unsustainable level, and the whole thing collapses in debt restructuring and debt monetization (which usually happens about once every 75 years, about 25 years).</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI4Mzc0ODQxOQ==&mid=2247669896&idx=6&sn=5e015ae9a4750da0fd02e789112ea54f&chksm=eb89e9a4dcfe60b2e083378a0d7b531feac3fd7291bc62274e5ef00ef0efe9d24a8db1e2cf81#rd\">美股研究社</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f410d25869e83895617f8fd0fb2de933","relate_stocks":{"SG9999002232.USD":"Allianz Global High Payout USD","LU0310799852.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Equity 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ACC","BK4588":"碎股","LU0208291251.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU1496350502.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED DYNAMIC \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","JPM":"摩根大通","BK4207":"综合性银行"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI4Mzc0ODQxOQ==&mid=2247669896&idx=6&sn=5e015ae9a4750da0fd02e789112ea54f&chksm=eb89e9a4dcfe60b2e083378a0d7b531feac3fd7291bc62274e5ef00ef0efe9d24a8db1e2cf81#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2321098115","content_text":"过去两周,危机突然升温,伴随着熊市,标准普尔500指数再次贬值,在本文中将主要关注银行系统和银行的崩溃。但银行在经济中扮演着重要角色,而陷入困境的银行可能会成为危机的负面催化剂。01概述基本上有两个主要的新闻报道。一方面,瑞士的瑞士信贷集团正被瑞银集团超越;另一方面是美国的几家银行在摩根大通等竞争对手的促进下倒闭,官方以及美联储介入。让我们从瑞士信贷开始。这家瑞士银行陷入困境并不令人意外,因为有关该公司陷入困境的报道几个月前就已经有了。然而,最近几天,情况突然变得更加戏剧性。上周已经有报道称,瑞士国家银行和FINMA(瑞士金融监管机构)将为瑞士信贷提供500亿瑞士法郎的紧急贷款(如有必要)。在周末——这种事情总是在周末市场休市的时候发生——瑞银同意以32.5亿美元的价格收购瑞信,这个价格大约是其上次股价的一半,但远高于最初的10亿美元的报价,瑞信拒绝了这一报价。但陷入困境的不仅仅是瑞士信贷——在前一周,硅谷银行倒闭,美国银行业危机达到了暂时的高潮。看到瑞士信贷陷入困境也许并不奇怪,因为有关该公司陷入困境的报道几个月前就已经发布了,但肯定没有人能预见到美国的银行倒闭(尽管银行倒闭是每次危机和熊市中可能发生的事件之一)。就像在过去类似的情况下,我们看到了“经典”的反应。美联储的反应是通过使用银行定期融资计划(BTFP)为银行提供额外的流动性。在这种情况下出现的另一个经典模式是,官方公开宣布银行体系是多么强大和安全,人们不必担心。上周周日珍妮特·耶伦、杰罗姆·鲍威尔和联邦存款保险公司主席马丁·格伦伯格已经通知公众,硅谷银行的储户将在周一获得他们所有的资金,此举也安抚了市场。在过去的危机中,我们已经看到了类似的举动。作为一个德国人,我尤其记得德国官方在2008年发表了类似的声明,并向德国公众保证,他们的存款是安全的,就像雷曼兄弟倒闭后的地狱一样。尽管这些反应正在发挥其应有的作用——恢复人们对银行体系和金融市场的信心——但这些反应有时只是短期的,对即将发生的事情是一种警告信号。在运行良好的市场中,市场参与者对银行的前景或安全充满信心(甚至是欣快感),这样的声明是不必要的。美联储不得不进行干预也不是一个好迹象,尽管这种干预有时会奏效——比如在2020年,当时提供了大量流动性。然而,在中期(也许是三年后),向市场注入巨额资金的意外后果可能会显现出来(因为用这些钱进行投机导致了错误的决策、高风险的赌注,以及现在的违约和银行倒闭)。02问题:信任和信心银行(以及类似机构)的一个巨大问题是信任和信心所扮演的角色——尤其是许多人(包括投资者)误解了信任和信心的重要性。虽然在人们是否会在银行存钱或取款的问题上,信任是至关重要的,但很难衡量信心。这尤其成问题,因为情况可能在几天内发生变化:恐慌可能迅速蔓延到整个国家(或全世界),上周信任银行的储户会突然感到恐慌,并试图提取资金。因此,仅仅看资产负债表是不够的,因为银行挤兑和人们失去信任会让许多银行崩溃。几家机构倒闭,几家主要新闻头条和国家电视台的报道可能足以引发恐慌。最近的一项研究显示了美国银行系统的脆弱性,以及在银行挤兑的情况下,有多少银行会在技术上资不抵债。如果我们假设最坏的情况是100%的无保险存款被提取,那么超过1600家美国银行将倒闭(根据FDIC从2021年开始的数据,共有4237家银行)。但即使假设只有30%的无保险存款被提取,106家银行也会倒闭。问题是,当客户(无论出于何种原因)失去信心并开始提现时,即使是资本充足的银行也可能突然面临重大麻烦。对于银行体系的大动荡,银行并不一定会完全崩溃。提取资金会更早地产生问题。03问题:不良资产尽管银行挤兑时有发生,并可能迫使银行屈服(过去几十年确实发生过),但这并不是银行倒闭的主要原因。由于银行挤兑而导致的银行倒闭在20世纪上半叶更为常见(尤其是在大萧条期间,数千家银行倒闭),大萧条之后,人们建立了防止银行挤兑的系统。如今,银行倒闭的原因通常是它们在错误的时间拥有不良资产或错误的资产(而且经常忽视或违反风险管理原则)。现在,随着过去几个季度利率的急剧上升,银行账簿上可能有错误的贷款。一些银行——尤其是欧洲的银行——可能在其投资组合中持有(接近于)零利率的政府债券,随着利率的提高,银行被迫向储户支付更高的利率,随着时间的推移,这将带来问题。第二个典型问题是资产价格下跌,银行账面上有所谓的有毒资产。在金融大危机期间,正是次级抵押贷款(或基于次级抵押贷款的金融产品)——资产(或:贷款)变成了不良贷款,因为银行把钱借给了没有能力偿还抵押贷款的人。此外,资产可能完全被错误定价,价值正在下降——这通常发生在泡沫之后,因为银行可能在错误的时间购买股票(或其他交易资产),价格超过了资产的内在价值。04复杂且相互关联的系统到目前为止,我们孤立地研究了不同的风险。但这些事件很少单独发生。它们通常相互加强,连锁反应(或多米诺骨牌效应)可能很快在金融体系内发生,导致银行危机。世界银行写道:当一个国家的许多银行同时面临严重的偿付能力或流动性问题时,就会发生(系统性)银行危机——要么是因为所有银行都受到了相同的外部冲击,要么是因为一家银行或一组银行的倒闭蔓延到系统中的其他银行。更具体地说,系统性银行危机是指一个国家的企业和金融部门出现大量违约,金融机构和企业难以按时偿还合同。一个国家的几家银行可能同时倒闭,因为它们都购买了类似的资产,而这些资产的价值最终远低于先前的估计,这似乎很明显,但银行倒闭在整个银行系统中的蔓延最初并不那么明显。当一家非金融企业倒闭时,对供应商和客户都会产生一些影响,供应链也会受到一定程度的干扰。但它不会像银行倒闭那样引发连锁反应。首先,被恐慌所取代的信任侵蚀将迅速蔓延至整个银行业。当一家(或几家)银行开始倒闭时,你会开始质疑自己的银行是否安全,并可能采取撤资行动。其次,由于银行之间相互放贷,购买其他银行发行的资产,银行之间存在着无数的联系,因此问题将迅速蔓延到整个银行系统。银行系统、股票市场和经济都是复杂的非线性系统,数千个节点和环节交织在一个复杂的系统中,我不知道会发生什么,但我可以看到在一个复杂的非线性系统中会发生什么,知道会发生什么足以让我非常谨慎。有这么多悬而未决的问题,分析师仍然认为现在不是收购银行股的时候。目前,尤其是小型地区性银行受到了沉重打击,在某些情况下,它们在很短的时间内损失了50%甚至更多的价值。现在,有人可能会问,危机是否已经到了后期阶段,我们是否应该开始投资。说实话:没有!答案仍然是:还没有!尽管问题开始显现,但分析师认为我们还没有接近底部——无论是银行股还是整个股市。一些银行可能已经显得很便宜——尤其是规模较小的地区性银行。Data by YCharts虽然美国的一些银行——包括美国合众银行、富国银行和美国银行——下跌了20%甚至更多,但迄今为止,加拿大同行的表现要好一些。Data by YCharts05结论银行陷入困境,一些银行开始倒闭,这只是另一张多米诺骨牌的倒下,令人遗憾的是,这符合金融危机通常的发展模式。衰退并不总是与银行危机相伴,但银行倒闭从来不是一个好迹象。这只是收益率曲线反转或新住房许可证数量下降等早期预警信号之后的下一步。当然,我可能是错的,我们总是可以采取相反的观点(2023年2月住房许可证数量激增,这与危机的叙述不相符)。我不知道我们是否会看到类似于2008年的危机,我也不知道同样被高估的房地产在这场危机中可能扮演什么角色。然而,到目前为止,许多迹象都暗示着金融和经济体系将面临严重衰退,我完全同意Ray Dalio的观点:我认为这是短期债务周期中非常经典的泡沫破裂部分的一个非常经典的事件(大约持续7年,或者大约3年),在这个过程中,紧缩货币以抑制信贷增长和通货膨胀,导致了自我强化的债务-信贷收缩,这种收缩过程通过多米诺骨牌一样的传染,持续到银行创造宽松的货币,否定了债务-信贷收缩、 从而产生更多新的信贷和债务,为下一个大的债务问题埋下种子,直到这些短期周期将债务资产和负债积累到不可持续的地步,整个事情在债务重组和债务货币化中崩溃(通常大约每75年发生一次,大约25年左右)。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CS":1,"JPM":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4565,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943144843,"gmtCreate":1679313636482,"gmtModify":1679313640622,"author":{"id":"4094983188358330","authorId":"4094983188358330","name":"我是梦幻金钱战士","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/99cba128d11b8be74b1f95636cd22ed7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094983188358330","idStr":"4094983188358330"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943144843","repostId":"2320682320","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2320682320","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"关注港股圈,这将是一笔最好的投资!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"真是港股圈","id":"34","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d530dcbc66604c01adb7b29512a93984"},"pubTimestamp":1679312047,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2320682320?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-20 19:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Credit Suisse's acquisition of the century, Saudi Arabia and investors became suckers","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2320682320","media":"真是港股圈","summary":"在过去的两个周末里,美国和欧洲金融圈发生的事情可以拍出一部美剧。电视剧第一幕以硅谷银行爆雷开始,危机带来的恐慌情绪引起美国中小银行股的大抛售,这是08年金融危机后未曾出现过的恐慌现象,最后美联储紧急出","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>What happened in the financial circles of the United States and Europe over the past two weekends could make an American TV series.</p><p>The first act of the TV series<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>The collapse began, and the panic caused by the crisis triggered a massive sell-off of small and medium-sized bank stocks in the United States. This was a panic phenomenon not seen since the 2008 financial crisis, and the Federal Reserve eventually intervened urgently to resolve the Silicon Valley Bank crisis.</p><p>On the surface, the repercussions of the risks brought about by Silicon Valley Bank have been eliminated. However, as we mentioned last week, due to the Federal Reserve's lax regulation of small and medium-sized banks, perhaps many more banks have the same undetonated landmine. At this point, Powell's every move was extremely dangerous.</p><p>According to US media reports, more than 20 private jets landed in Omaha last Friday, all carrying heads of regional banking institutions. As is well known, Omaha is a small city with only 400,000 people. Besides...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Apart from Hathaway, only Hathaway remains.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCD\">McDonald's</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>So many bank executives flew to Omaha for only one purpose: to find Buffett.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93f331f575814979af1afb3736fb84ef\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>According to US media reports, Warren Buffett held talks with the Biden administration, where he provided opinions and guidance on the current crisis.</p><p>Buffett has long helped banks in crisis, using his investment position and influence to restore confidence in struggling banks.</p><p>Buffett provided $5 billion in bailouts during the 2008 financial crisis.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>。 During the 2011 U.S. sovereign debt crisis, Buffett invested $5 billion in Bank of America to help it weather the crisis, and Buffett also earned over $12 billion from this Bank of America deal. recent<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a>Buffett was also involved in the collapse.</p><p>Whenever Bank of America faces a crisis, Buffett steps in to help at the right time. It can be said that Buffett is the savior of the banking industry during the crisis. Therefore, it is widely believed that Buffett may invest in US regional banks in some way.</p><p>Omaha was full of helicopters, and an old man slowly walked out. The government and banking industry visited highly respected elderly people for help, which was very similar to the plot of an American TV series. The plot can be cut to the other side: the outbreak of the US banking crisis triggered extreme panic among European banks.</p><p>Early this morning, Credit Suisse, which had a long history of trouble, finally couldn't hold on any longer, and UBS Group confirmed the acquisition of the crisis-ridden Credit Suisse. The announcement shows that UBS will acquire Credit Suisse for $3.23 billion, equivalent to a 50% discount to Credit Suisse's closing price last Friday.</p><p>Initially, Credit Suisse firmly refused. After all, Credit Suisse is a globally systemically important bank with a history of 167 years and once owned more than one trillion US dollars in assets. Moreover, the two were once competitors. Credit Suisse, with its reputation accumulated over the past century, absolutely did not want to be humiliatingly acquired at a low price.</p><p>But Swiss authorities were eager to broker the deal before global stock markets opened, and the Swiss government warned Credit Suisse that it would consider nationalizing Credit Suisse if it did not accept UBS's takeover offer. If it were to be nationalized, the final acquisition price might be far lower than the terms offered by UBS, and Credit Suisse would eventually be forced to sell.</p><p>UBS will bear 9 billion Swiss francs in losses, while the Swiss National Bank will guarantee the transaction, providing UBS with $100 billion in liquidity. The Swiss government also guaranteed UBS 900 million Swiss francs in losses.</p><p><b>It is worth noting that UBS stated that the 22.48 Credit Suisse shares held by Credit Suisse shareholders will be exchanged for 1 UBS share, equivalent to 0.76 Swiss francs per share, for a total consideration of 3 billion Swiss francs. This means that shareholders who previously held Credit Suisse shares will suffer significant losses.</b></p><p><b>Last week, the Saudi National Bank said it would no longer inject capital into Credit Suisse, causing Credit Suisse's share price to plummet. The Saudi investor probably never expected that the value of the nearly 10% of Credit Suisse shares he bought for $1.4 billion last year would shrink to $300 million in just a few days, leaving only 20% of the money he had invested.</b></p><p><b>Saudi investors were completely fooled by the Europeans, hoping to buy Credit Suisse, which was once worth hundreds of billions, at the bottom. However, after buying it, they were trapped and forced by the Swiss government to reach an acquisition agreement.</b></p><p><b>Meanwhile, Saudi investors were not the only ones hurt; other investors who bought Credit Suisse coco bonds also suffered in silence.</b></p><p>According to a UBS announcement, Credit Suisse's $17.2 billion in additional primary capital market bonds, which can be called AT1 or coco bonds, will be fully written down. This means that Credit Suisse's bonds become worthless, and those who buy them will not receive the principal and interest.</p><p>Logically speaking, the liquidation order for bank failures should be deposits → bonds → stocks. Bonds have a higher liquidation priority than equities, so why were these debts written down?</p><p>AT1 bonds are very popular in European banks, mainly to replenish their Tier 1 capital. These are convertible bonds that trigger a conversion mechanism when the issuer's capital adequacy ratio falls below a certain level, converting the bonds into shares or writing them down.</p><p>Because Europe has been in a low-interest-rate environment for a long time, market investors lack high-yield bonds. The high-yield bonds issued by these banks have attracted many investors to buy them. It is understood that Credit Suisse's AT1 bonds yield as high as 7%.</p><p>With such high returns, there are correspondingly high risks. The AT1 bond contract contains a clause called \"write down,\" which states that banks can write down AT1 bonds under various circumstances, and investors may not be able to get their money back.</p><p>This includes writing down AT1 bonds when a bank's Tier 1 capital falls below a certain threshold and there is a risk of a bank rushing to withdraw funds. Credit Suisse is currently in a situation where its Tier 1 capital is below a certain threshold, and its AT1 bonds meet the conditions for being \"written down\".</p><p>It is worth noting that the total size of the coco bond market is $275 billion, and the write-down of Credit Suisse's $17 billion worth of coco bonds means that the coco bond market will be repriced. Currently, AT1 bonds issued by some Asian banks have plummeted, marking the largest drop, falling 20% below par value.</p><p>The current concern is that the value of the coco bond market will continue to decline, as pension funds, funds, and insurance companies are the main holders of coco bonds. If the sharp decline continues, the European market may face an even greater crisis. It is understood that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>Investment management companies, Invesco Holdings, BFMC, and other institutions are asset management companies that hold Credit Suisse AT1 bonds, but these institutions cannot get a single penny back.</p><p><b>epilogue</b></p><p>The European market is now panicking that the write-down of Credit Suisse's coco bonds may spread to other banks. If the prices of other banks' AT1 bonds fall, it could crisis their capital adequacy ratios and trigger a chain reaction.</p><p>In Credit Suisse's deal of the century, Saudi Arabia's financial backers and the investors who bought coco bonds suffered the most. The value of one of their shares was reduced to 20%, while the other group of investors suffered a huge loss of 16 billion. This humiliating merger also reveals the fragility of the European financial system.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Credit Suisse's acquisition of the century, Saudi Arabia and investors became suckers</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCredit Suisse's acquisition of the century, Saudi Arabia and investors became suckers\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/34\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d530dcbc66604c01adb7b29512a93984);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">真是港股圈 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-20 19:34</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>What happened in the financial circles of the United States and Europe over the past two weekends could make an American TV series.</p><p>The first act of the TV series<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>The collapse began, and the panic caused by the crisis triggered a massive sell-off of small and medium-sized bank stocks in the United States. This was a panic phenomenon not seen since the 2008 financial crisis, and the Federal Reserve eventually intervened urgently to resolve the Silicon Valley Bank crisis.</p><p>On the surface, the repercussions of the risks brought about by Silicon Valley Bank have been eliminated. However, as we mentioned last week, due to the Federal Reserve's lax regulation of small and medium-sized banks, perhaps many more banks have the same undetonated landmine. At this point, Powell's every move was extremely dangerous.</p><p>According to US media reports, more than 20 private jets landed in Omaha last Friday, all carrying heads of regional banking institutions. As is well known, Omaha is a small city with only 400,000 people. Besides...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Apart from Hathaway, only Hathaway remains.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCD\">McDonald's</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>So many bank executives flew to Omaha for only one purpose: to find Buffett.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93f331f575814979af1afb3736fb84ef\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>According to US media reports, Warren Buffett held talks with the Biden administration, where he provided opinions and guidance on the current crisis.</p><p>Buffett has long helped banks in crisis, using his investment position and influence to restore confidence in struggling banks.</p><p>Buffett provided $5 billion in bailouts during the 2008 financial crisis.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>。 During the 2011 U.S. sovereign debt crisis, Buffett invested $5 billion in Bank of America to help it weather the crisis, and Buffett also earned over $12 billion from this Bank of America deal. recent<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a>Buffett was also involved in the collapse.</p><p>Whenever Bank of America faces a crisis, Buffett steps in to help at the right time. It can be said that Buffett is the savior of the banking industry during the crisis. Therefore, it is widely believed that Buffett may invest in US regional banks in some way.</p><p>Omaha was full of helicopters, and an old man slowly walked out. The government and banking industry visited highly respected elderly people for help, which was very similar to the plot of an American TV series. The plot can be cut to the other side: the outbreak of the US banking crisis triggered extreme panic among European banks.</p><p>Early this morning, Credit Suisse, which had a long history of trouble, finally couldn't hold on any longer, and UBS Group confirmed the acquisition of the crisis-ridden Credit Suisse. The announcement shows that UBS will acquire Credit Suisse for $3.23 billion, equivalent to a 50% discount to Credit Suisse's closing price last Friday.</p><p>Initially, Credit Suisse firmly refused. After all, Credit Suisse is a globally systemically important bank with a history of 167 years and once owned more than one trillion US dollars in assets. Moreover, the two were once competitors. Credit Suisse, with its reputation accumulated over the past century, absolutely did not want to be humiliatingly acquired at a low price.</p><p>But Swiss authorities were eager to broker the deal before global stock markets opened, and the Swiss government warned Credit Suisse that it would consider nationalizing Credit Suisse if it did not accept UBS's takeover offer. If it were to be nationalized, the final acquisition price might be far lower than the terms offered by UBS, and Credit Suisse would eventually be forced to sell.</p><p>UBS will bear 9 billion Swiss francs in losses, while the Swiss National Bank will guarantee the transaction, providing UBS with $100 billion in liquidity. The Swiss government also guaranteed UBS 900 million Swiss francs in losses.</p><p><b>It is worth noting that UBS stated that the 22.48 Credit Suisse shares held by Credit Suisse shareholders will be exchanged for 1 UBS share, equivalent to 0.76 Swiss francs per share, for a total consideration of 3 billion Swiss francs. This means that shareholders who previously held Credit Suisse shares will suffer significant losses.</b></p><p><b>Last week, the Saudi National Bank said it would no longer inject capital into Credit Suisse, causing Credit Suisse's share price to plummet. The Saudi investor probably never expected that the value of the nearly 10% of Credit Suisse shares he bought for $1.4 billion last year would shrink to $300 million in just a few days, leaving only 20% of the money he had invested.</b></p><p><b>Saudi investors were completely fooled by the Europeans, hoping to buy Credit Suisse, which was once worth hundreds of billions, at the bottom. However, after buying it, they were trapped and forced by the Swiss government to reach an acquisition agreement.</b></p><p><b>Meanwhile, Saudi investors were not the only ones hurt; other investors who bought Credit Suisse coco bonds also suffered in silence.</b></p><p>According to a UBS announcement, Credit Suisse's $17.2 billion in additional primary capital market bonds, which can be called AT1 or coco bonds, will be fully written down. This means that Credit Suisse's bonds become worthless, and those who buy them will not receive the principal and interest.</p><p>Logically speaking, the liquidation order for bank failures should be deposits → bonds → stocks. Bonds have a higher liquidation priority than equities, so why were these debts written down?</p><p>AT1 bonds are very popular in European banks, mainly to replenish their Tier 1 capital. These are convertible bonds that trigger a conversion mechanism when the issuer's capital adequacy ratio falls below a certain level, converting the bonds into shares or writing them down.</p><p>Because Europe has been in a low-interest-rate environment for a long time, market investors lack high-yield bonds. The high-yield bonds issued by these banks have attracted many investors to buy them. It is understood that Credit Suisse's AT1 bonds yield as high as 7%.</p><p>With such high returns, there are correspondingly high risks. The AT1 bond contract contains a clause called \"write down,\" which states that banks can write down AT1 bonds under various circumstances, and investors may not be able to get their money back.</p><p>This includes writing down AT1 bonds when a bank's Tier 1 capital falls below a certain threshold and there is a risk of a bank rushing to withdraw funds. Credit Suisse is currently in a situation where its Tier 1 capital is below a certain threshold, and its AT1 bonds meet the conditions for being \"written down\".</p><p>It is worth noting that the total size of the coco bond market is $275 billion, and the write-down of Credit Suisse's $17 billion worth of coco bonds means that the coco bond market will be repriced. Currently, AT1 bonds issued by some Asian banks have plummeted, marking the largest drop, falling 20% below par value.</p><p>The current concern is that the value of the coco bond market will continue to decline, as pension funds, funds, and insurance companies are the main holders of coco bonds. If the sharp decline continues, the European market may face an even greater crisis. It is understood that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>Investment management companies, Invesco Holdings, BFMC, and other institutions are asset management companies that hold Credit Suisse AT1 bonds, but these institutions cannot get a single penny back.</p><p><b>epilogue</b></p><p>The European market is now panicking that the write-down of Credit Suisse's coco bonds may spread to other banks. If the prices of other banks' AT1 bonds fall, it could crisis their capital adequacy ratios and trigger a chain reaction.</p><p>In Credit Suisse's deal of the century, Saudi Arabia's financial backers and the investors who bought coco bonds suffered the most. The value of one of their shares was reduced to 20%, while the other group of investors suffered a huge loss of 16 billion. This humiliating merger also reveals the fragility of the European financial system.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43c7a8fcc1bc91528f3f7c05a51a2622","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2320682320","content_text":"在过去的两个周末里,美国和欧洲金融圈发生的事情可以拍出一部美剧。电视剧第一幕以硅谷银行爆雷开始,危机带来的恐慌情绪引起美国中小银行股的大抛售,这是08年金融危机后未曾出现过的恐慌现象,最后美联储紧急出手解除硅谷银行危机。从明面上看,硅谷银行带来的风险余波已解除。但我们上周提到过,由于美联储对中小型银行的监管力度宽松,或许有更多银行有同样的地雷未被引爆。在这时,鲍威尔的每一步都十分危险。据美媒报道,上周五美国超过20架私人飞机在奥马哈降落,私人飞机上全是地区性银行机构的负责人。众所周知,奥马哈是只有40万人的小城市,奥马哈除了伯克希尔哈撒韦以外,就只剩麦当劳和沃尔玛了,那么多银行机构负责人飞到奥马哈,目的只有一个,那就是找巴菲特。美媒称,巴菲特与拜登政府进行了对话,巴菲特针对当前危机给出了意见和指导。一直以来,巴菲特都在帮助陷入危机的银行,利用他的投资地位和影响力来恢复人们对陷入困境的银行的信心。巴菲特在2008年金融危机期间,拿出50亿美元救助高盛。在2011年美国主权债务危机期间,向美国银行投资50亿美元,帮助美银渡过危机时刻,巴菲特也从美银这笔交易中赚超120亿美元。近期第一共和银行的爆雷,巴菲特也有所参与。每当美国银行出现危机时,巴菲特都会在合适的时机出手相助,可以说,巴菲特是银行业危机中的救星。由此,外界认为巴菲特此次可能以某种方式投资美国地区性银行。奥马哈停满直升机,一个老头缓缓走出来,政府和银行业拜访求助德高望重的老人,这像极了美剧中的剧情。剧情可以切至另外一边,美国银行危机的爆雷,引发起欧洲银行的极度恐慌。在今日凌晨,劣迹已久的瑞信终于撑不住了,瑞银集团确认收购陷入危机的瑞信。公告显示,瑞银将以32.3亿美元收购瑞信,相当于瑞信上周五收盘价打五折。在一开始,瑞信坚决拒绝,毕竟瑞信是有167年历史的,曾经拥有过一万多亿美元资产的全球系统性重要的银行,且两家曾经是竞争对手,瑞信在过去一百多年间积累的声誉,绝不想被低价屈辱性的收购。但瑞士当局急于在全球股市开门前撮合这笔交易,瑞士政府警告瑞信称,若不接受瑞银的收购要约,那政府将考虑将瑞信国有化。若被国有化交易,那最后可能收购价远不及瑞银给出的条件,最后瑞信被迫卖出。瑞银将承担90亿瑞郎的损失,而瑞士央行为这笔交易做出担保,将向瑞银提供1000亿美元的流动性,瑞士政府还为瑞银担保了9亿瑞郎的损失。值得注意的是,瑞银表示,瑞信股东所持有的22.48股瑞信股票,将换得1股瑞银股票,相当于每股0.76瑞郎,总对价为30亿瑞士法郎,这意味着此前持有瑞信股票的股东都会有大幅损失。上周,沙特国家银行表示不会再为瑞信注资,这引起瑞信的股价大跌。可能沙特金主万万没想到,自己去年用14亿美元买来的近10%瑞信股份,在几天内股份价值就瞬间缩水至3亿美元,投进来的钱突然就剩20%了。沙特金主可算是被欧洲人耍的团团转,想着进来抄底一把曾经千亿市值的瑞信,结果抄完被套牢,还要受瑞士政府的强迫达成收购协议。同时,受伤的不止沙特金主一人,其他买了瑞信coco债的投资者也吃了哑巴亏。据瑞银公告称,瑞信的172亿美元的额外一级资本市场债券将全额减记,这类债券可叫AT1或叫coco债。这意味着瑞信的债券变得一文不值,买了该债券的人将无法拿到本金和利息。按理说,银行倒闭的清算顺序是存款→债→股,债券比股权的清算优先级要高,那为什么这些债被减记了?AT1债券在欧洲银行十分流行,主要以补充银行的一级资本金,这是一种可转换债券,在发行者的资本充足率低于某个水平时,就会触发转换机制,将债券转换为股票或者减记。由于欧洲长期处在低利率的环境下,市场投资者缺少高息债券,这些银行所发行的高息债券就吸引了很多投资者来购买,据了解,瑞信的AT1债券回报高达7%。有如此高的回报,也有相对应的高风险。AT1债券的合同里有一个条款名为“write down”(损失吸收机制),列出了银行在各式各样的情况下,AT1债可以被减记,投资者可能拿不回钱。其中即包括,银行一级资本金低于某个门槛时,银行出现挤提的风险时,AT1债就可以被减记。而目前瑞信就处在一级资本金低于某个门槛的情况,瑞信的AT1债符合被“write down”的条件。值得注意的是,coco债券市场总规模为2750亿美元,而现在瑞信价值170亿美元的coco债被减记后,意味着coco债券市场将要被重新定价。目前,亚洲部分银行的AT1债券大幅跳水,已创下最大跌幅,较面值跌去20%。现担忧的是,coco债券市场的价值会继续下跌,由于养老金、基金、保险是coco债券的主要持有人,若大跌持续下去,欧洲市场可能有更大的危机。据了解,太平洋投资管理公司、景顺控股、BFMC等机构是持有瑞信AT1债券的资产管理公司,而这些机构是一分钱都拿不回来了。结语现在欧洲市场在恐慌着瑞信coco债券的减记可能会蔓延至其他银行,其他银行的AT1债券价格若下跌,可能危机到其他银行的资本充足率,引起连锁反应。在瑞信这笔世纪交易中,沙特金主和买coco债的投资者属实最惨,一个持有的股份价值被缩减至20%,另一批投资者血亏160亿,在这次屈辱性的合并中,也展现出欧洲金融体系脆弱的一面。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943144379,"gmtCreate":1679313576292,"gmtModify":1679313581644,"author":{"id":"4094983188358330","authorId":"4094983188358330","name":"我是梦幻金钱战士","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/99cba128d11b8be74b1f95636cd22ed7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094983188358330","idStr":"4094983188358330"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943144379","repostId":"2320682320","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2320682320","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"关注港股圈,这将是一笔最好的投资!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"真是港股圈","id":"34","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d530dcbc66604c01adb7b29512a93984"},"pubTimestamp":1679312047,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2320682320?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-20 19:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Credit Suisse's acquisition of the century, Saudi Arabia and investors became suckers","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2320682320","media":"真是港股圈","summary":"在过去的两个周末里,美国和欧洲金融圈发生的事情可以拍出一部美剧。电视剧第一幕以硅谷银行爆雷开始,危机带来的恐慌情绪引起美国中小银行股的大抛售,这是08年金融危机后未曾出现过的恐慌现象,最后美联储紧急出","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>What happened in the financial circles of the United States and Europe over the past two weekends could make an American TV series.</p><p>The first act of the TV series<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>The collapse began, and the panic caused by the crisis triggered a massive sell-off of small and medium-sized bank stocks in the United States. This was a panic phenomenon not seen since the 2008 financial crisis, and the Federal Reserve eventually intervened urgently to resolve the Silicon Valley Bank crisis.</p><p>On the surface, the repercussions of the risks brought about by Silicon Valley Bank have been eliminated. However, as we mentioned last week, due to the Federal Reserve's lax regulation of small and medium-sized banks, perhaps many more banks have the same undetonated landmine. At this point, Powell's every move was extremely dangerous.</p><p>According to US media reports, more than 20 private jets landed in Omaha last Friday, all carrying heads of regional banking institutions. As is well known, Omaha is a small city with only 400,000 people. Besides...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Apart from Hathaway, only Hathaway remains.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCD\">McDonald's</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>So many bank executives flew to Omaha for only one purpose: to find Buffett.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93f331f575814979af1afb3736fb84ef\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>According to US media reports, Warren Buffett held talks with the Biden administration, where he provided opinions and guidance on the current crisis.</p><p>Buffett has long helped banks in crisis, using his investment position and influence to restore confidence in struggling banks.</p><p>Buffett provided $5 billion in bailouts during the 2008 financial crisis.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>。 During the 2011 U.S. sovereign debt crisis, Buffett invested $5 billion in Bank of America to help it weather the crisis, and Buffett also earned over $12 billion from this Bank of America deal. recent<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a>Buffett was also involved in the collapse.</p><p>Whenever Bank of America faces a crisis, Buffett steps in to help at the right time. It can be said that Buffett is the savior of the banking industry during the crisis. Therefore, it is widely believed that Buffett may invest in US regional banks in some way.</p><p>Omaha was full of helicopters, and an old man slowly walked out. The government and banking industry visited highly respected elderly people for help, which was very similar to the plot of an American TV series. The plot can be cut to the other side: the outbreak of the US banking crisis triggered extreme panic among European banks.</p><p>Early this morning, Credit Suisse, which had a long history of trouble, finally couldn't hold on any longer, and UBS Group confirmed the acquisition of the crisis-ridden Credit Suisse. The announcement shows that UBS will acquire Credit Suisse for $3.23 billion, equivalent to a 50% discount to Credit Suisse's closing price last Friday.</p><p>Initially, Credit Suisse firmly refused. After all, Credit Suisse is a globally systemically important bank with a history of 167 years and once owned more than one trillion US dollars in assets. Moreover, the two were once competitors. Credit Suisse, with its reputation accumulated over the past century, absolutely did not want to be humiliatingly acquired at a low price.</p><p>But Swiss authorities were eager to broker the deal before global stock markets opened, and the Swiss government warned Credit Suisse that it would consider nationalizing Credit Suisse if it did not accept UBS's takeover offer. If it were to be nationalized, the final acquisition price might be far lower than the terms offered by UBS, and Credit Suisse would eventually be forced to sell.</p><p>UBS will bear 9 billion Swiss francs in losses, while the Swiss National Bank will guarantee the transaction, providing UBS with $100 billion in liquidity. The Swiss government also guaranteed UBS 900 million Swiss francs in losses.</p><p><b>It is worth noting that UBS stated that the 22.48 Credit Suisse shares held by Credit Suisse shareholders will be exchanged for 1 UBS share, equivalent to 0.76 Swiss francs per share, for a total consideration of 3 billion Swiss francs. This means that shareholders who previously held Credit Suisse shares will suffer significant losses.</b></p><p><b>Last week, the Saudi National Bank said it would no longer inject capital into Credit Suisse, causing Credit Suisse's share price to plummet. The Saudi investor probably never expected that the value of the nearly 10% of Credit Suisse shares he bought for $1.4 billion last year would shrink to $300 million in just a few days, leaving only 20% of the money he had invested.</b></p><p><b>Saudi investors were completely fooled by the Europeans, hoping to buy Credit Suisse, which was once worth hundreds of billions, at the bottom. However, after buying it, they were trapped and forced by the Swiss government to reach an acquisition agreement.</b></p><p><b>Meanwhile, Saudi investors were not the only ones hurt; other investors who bought Credit Suisse coco bonds also suffered in silence.</b></p><p>According to a UBS announcement, Credit Suisse's $17.2 billion in additional primary capital market bonds, which can be called AT1 or coco bonds, will be fully written down. This means that Credit Suisse's bonds become worthless, and those who buy them will not receive the principal and interest.</p><p>Logically speaking, the liquidation order for bank failures should be deposits → bonds → stocks. Bonds have a higher liquidation priority than equities, so why were these debts written down?</p><p>AT1 bonds are very popular in European banks, mainly to replenish their Tier 1 capital. These are convertible bonds that trigger a conversion mechanism when the issuer's capital adequacy ratio falls below a certain level, converting the bonds into shares or writing them down.</p><p>Because Europe has been in a low-interest-rate environment for a long time, market investors lack high-yield bonds. The high-yield bonds issued by these banks have attracted many investors to buy them. It is understood that Credit Suisse's AT1 bonds yield as high as 7%.</p><p>With such high returns, there are correspondingly high risks. The AT1 bond contract contains a clause called \"write down,\" which states that banks can write down AT1 bonds under various circumstances, and investors may not be able to get their money back.</p><p>This includes writing down AT1 bonds when a bank's Tier 1 capital falls below a certain threshold and there is a risk of a bank rushing to withdraw funds. Credit Suisse is currently in a situation where its Tier 1 capital is below a certain threshold, and its AT1 bonds meet the conditions for being \"written down\".</p><p>It is worth noting that the total size of the coco bond market is $275 billion, and the write-down of Credit Suisse's $17 billion worth of coco bonds means that the coco bond market will be repriced. Currently, AT1 bonds issued by some Asian banks have plummeted, marking the largest drop, falling 20% below par value.</p><p>The current concern is that the value of the coco bond market will continue to decline, as pension funds, funds, and insurance companies are the main holders of coco bonds. If the sharp decline continues, the European market may face an even greater crisis. It is understood that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>Investment management companies, Invesco Holdings, BFMC, and other institutions are asset management companies that hold Credit Suisse AT1 bonds, but these institutions cannot get a single penny back.</p><p><b>epilogue</b></p><p>The European market is now panicking that the write-down of Credit Suisse's coco bonds may spread to other banks. If the prices of other banks' AT1 bonds fall, it could crisis their capital adequacy ratios and trigger a chain reaction.</p><p>In Credit Suisse's deal of the century, Saudi Arabia's financial backers and the investors who bought coco bonds suffered the most. The value of one of their shares was reduced to 20%, while the other group of investors suffered a huge loss of 16 billion. This humiliating merger also reveals the fragility of the European financial system.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Credit Suisse's acquisition of the century, Saudi Arabia and investors became suckers</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCredit Suisse's acquisition of the century, Saudi Arabia and investors became suckers\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/34\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d530dcbc66604c01adb7b29512a93984);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">真是港股圈 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-20 19:34</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>What happened in the financial circles of the United States and Europe over the past two weekends could make an American TV series.</p><p>The first act of the TV series<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>The collapse began, and the panic caused by the crisis triggered a massive sell-off of small and medium-sized bank stocks in the United States. This was a panic phenomenon not seen since the 2008 financial crisis, and the Federal Reserve eventually intervened urgently to resolve the Silicon Valley Bank crisis.</p><p>On the surface, the repercussions of the risks brought about by Silicon Valley Bank have been eliminated. However, as we mentioned last week, due to the Federal Reserve's lax regulation of small and medium-sized banks, perhaps many more banks have the same undetonated landmine. At this point, Powell's every move was extremely dangerous.</p><p>According to US media reports, more than 20 private jets landed in Omaha last Friday, all carrying heads of regional banking institutions. As is well known, Omaha is a small city with only 400,000 people. Besides...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Apart from Hathaway, only Hathaway remains.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCD\">McDonald's</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>So many bank executives flew to Omaha for only one purpose: to find Buffett.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93f331f575814979af1afb3736fb84ef\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>According to US media reports, Warren Buffett held talks with the Biden administration, where he provided opinions and guidance on the current crisis.</p><p>Buffett has long helped banks in crisis, using his investment position and influence to restore confidence in struggling banks.</p><p>Buffett provided $5 billion in bailouts during the 2008 financial crisis.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>。 During the 2011 U.S. sovereign debt crisis, Buffett invested $5 billion in Bank of America to help it weather the crisis, and Buffett also earned over $12 billion from this Bank of America deal. recent<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a>Buffett was also involved in the collapse.</p><p>Whenever Bank of America faces a crisis, Buffett steps in to help at the right time. It can be said that Buffett is the savior of the banking industry during the crisis. Therefore, it is widely believed that Buffett may invest in US regional banks in some way.</p><p>Omaha was full of helicopters, and an old man slowly walked out. The government and banking industry visited highly respected elderly people for help, which was very similar to the plot of an American TV series. The plot can be cut to the other side: the outbreak of the US banking crisis triggered extreme panic among European banks.</p><p>Early this morning, Credit Suisse, which had a long history of trouble, finally couldn't hold on any longer, and UBS Group confirmed the acquisition of the crisis-ridden Credit Suisse. The announcement shows that UBS will acquire Credit Suisse for $3.23 billion, equivalent to a 50% discount to Credit Suisse's closing price last Friday.</p><p>Initially, Credit Suisse firmly refused. After all, Credit Suisse is a globally systemically important bank with a history of 167 years and once owned more than one trillion US dollars in assets. Moreover, the two were once competitors. Credit Suisse, with its reputation accumulated over the past century, absolutely did not want to be humiliatingly acquired at a low price.</p><p>But Swiss authorities were eager to broker the deal before global stock markets opened, and the Swiss government warned Credit Suisse that it would consider nationalizing Credit Suisse if it did not accept UBS's takeover offer. If it were to be nationalized, the final acquisition price might be far lower than the terms offered by UBS, and Credit Suisse would eventually be forced to sell.</p><p>UBS will bear 9 billion Swiss francs in losses, while the Swiss National Bank will guarantee the transaction, providing UBS with $100 billion in liquidity. The Swiss government also guaranteed UBS 900 million Swiss francs in losses.</p><p><b>It is worth noting that UBS stated that the 22.48 Credit Suisse shares held by Credit Suisse shareholders will be exchanged for 1 UBS share, equivalent to 0.76 Swiss francs per share, for a total consideration of 3 billion Swiss francs. This means that shareholders who previously held Credit Suisse shares will suffer significant losses.</b></p><p><b>Last week, the Saudi National Bank said it would no longer inject capital into Credit Suisse, causing Credit Suisse's share price to plummet. The Saudi investor probably never expected that the value of the nearly 10% of Credit Suisse shares he bought for $1.4 billion last year would shrink to $300 million in just a few days, leaving only 20% of the money he had invested.</b></p><p><b>Saudi investors were completely fooled by the Europeans, hoping to buy Credit Suisse, which was once worth hundreds of billions, at the bottom. However, after buying it, they were trapped and forced by the Swiss government to reach an acquisition agreement.</b></p><p><b>Meanwhile, Saudi investors were not the only ones hurt; other investors who bought Credit Suisse coco bonds also suffered in silence.</b></p><p>According to a UBS announcement, Credit Suisse's $17.2 billion in additional primary capital market bonds, which can be called AT1 or coco bonds, will be fully written down. This means that Credit Suisse's bonds become worthless, and those who buy them will not receive the principal and interest.</p><p>Logically speaking, the liquidation order for bank failures should be deposits → bonds → stocks. Bonds have a higher liquidation priority than equities, so why were these debts written down?</p><p>AT1 bonds are very popular in European banks, mainly to replenish their Tier 1 capital. These are convertible bonds that trigger a conversion mechanism when the issuer's capital adequacy ratio falls below a certain level, converting the bonds into shares or writing them down.</p><p>Because Europe has been in a low-interest-rate environment for a long time, market investors lack high-yield bonds. The high-yield bonds issued by these banks have attracted many investors to buy them. It is understood that Credit Suisse's AT1 bonds yield as high as 7%.</p><p>With such high returns, there are correspondingly high risks. The AT1 bond contract contains a clause called \"write down,\" which states that banks can write down AT1 bonds under various circumstances, and investors may not be able to get their money back.</p><p>This includes writing down AT1 bonds when a bank's Tier 1 capital falls below a certain threshold and there is a risk of a bank rushing to withdraw funds. Credit Suisse is currently in a situation where its Tier 1 capital is below a certain threshold, and its AT1 bonds meet the conditions for being \"written down\".</p><p>It is worth noting that the total size of the coco bond market is $275 billion, and the write-down of Credit Suisse's $17 billion worth of coco bonds means that the coco bond market will be repriced. Currently, AT1 bonds issued by some Asian banks have plummeted, marking the largest drop, falling 20% below par value.</p><p>The current concern is that the value of the coco bond market will continue to decline, as pension funds, funds, and insurance companies are the main holders of coco bonds. If the sharp decline continues, the European market may face an even greater crisis. It is understood that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>Investment management companies, Invesco Holdings, BFMC, and other institutions are asset management companies that hold Credit Suisse AT1 bonds, but these institutions cannot get a single penny back.</p><p><b>epilogue</b></p><p>The European market is now panicking that the write-down of Credit Suisse's coco bonds may spread to other banks. If the prices of other banks' AT1 bonds fall, it could crisis their capital adequacy ratios and trigger a chain reaction.</p><p>In Credit Suisse's deal of the century, Saudi Arabia's financial backers and the investors who bought coco bonds suffered the most. The value of one of their shares was reduced to 20%, while the other group of investors suffered a huge loss of 16 billion. This humiliating merger also reveals the fragility of the European financial system.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43c7a8fcc1bc91528f3f7c05a51a2622","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2320682320","content_text":"在过去的两个周末里,美国和欧洲金融圈发生的事情可以拍出一部美剧。电视剧第一幕以硅谷银行爆雷开始,危机带来的恐慌情绪引起美国中小银行股的大抛售,这是08年金融危机后未曾出现过的恐慌现象,最后美联储紧急出手解除硅谷银行危机。从明面上看,硅谷银行带来的风险余波已解除。但我们上周提到过,由于美联储对中小型银行的监管力度宽松,或许有更多银行有同样的地雷未被引爆。在这时,鲍威尔的每一步都十分危险。据美媒报道,上周五美国超过20架私人飞机在奥马哈降落,私人飞机上全是地区性银行机构的负责人。众所周知,奥马哈是只有40万人的小城市,奥马哈除了伯克希尔哈撒韦以外,就只剩麦当劳和沃尔玛了,那么多银行机构负责人飞到奥马哈,目的只有一个,那就是找巴菲特。美媒称,巴菲特与拜登政府进行了对话,巴菲特针对当前危机给出了意见和指导。一直以来,巴菲特都在帮助陷入危机的银行,利用他的投资地位和影响力来恢复人们对陷入困境的银行的信心。巴菲特在2008年金融危机期间,拿出50亿美元救助高盛。在2011年美国主权债务危机期间,向美国银行投资50亿美元,帮助美银渡过危机时刻,巴菲特也从美银这笔交易中赚超120亿美元。近期第一共和银行的爆雷,巴菲特也有所参与。每当美国银行出现危机时,巴菲特都会在合适的时机出手相助,可以说,巴菲特是银行业危机中的救星。由此,外界认为巴菲特此次可能以某种方式投资美国地区性银行。奥马哈停满直升机,一个老头缓缓走出来,政府和银行业拜访求助德高望重的老人,这像极了美剧中的剧情。剧情可以切至另外一边,美国银行危机的爆雷,引发起欧洲银行的极度恐慌。在今日凌晨,劣迹已久的瑞信终于撑不住了,瑞银集团确认收购陷入危机的瑞信。公告显示,瑞银将以32.3亿美元收购瑞信,相当于瑞信上周五收盘价打五折。在一开始,瑞信坚决拒绝,毕竟瑞信是有167年历史的,曾经拥有过一万多亿美元资产的全球系统性重要的银行,且两家曾经是竞争对手,瑞信在过去一百多年间积累的声誉,绝不想被低价屈辱性的收购。但瑞士当局急于在全球股市开门前撮合这笔交易,瑞士政府警告瑞信称,若不接受瑞银的收购要约,那政府将考虑将瑞信国有化。若被国有化交易,那最后可能收购价远不及瑞银给出的条件,最后瑞信被迫卖出。瑞银将承担90亿瑞郎的损失,而瑞士央行为这笔交易做出担保,将向瑞银提供1000亿美元的流动性,瑞士政府还为瑞银担保了9亿瑞郎的损失。值得注意的是,瑞银表示,瑞信股东所持有的22.48股瑞信股票,将换得1股瑞银股票,相当于每股0.76瑞郎,总对价为30亿瑞士法郎,这意味着此前持有瑞信股票的股东都会有大幅损失。上周,沙特国家银行表示不会再为瑞信注资,这引起瑞信的股价大跌。可能沙特金主万万没想到,自己去年用14亿美元买来的近10%瑞信股份,在几天内股份价值就瞬间缩水至3亿美元,投进来的钱突然就剩20%了。沙特金主可算是被欧洲人耍的团团转,想着进来抄底一把曾经千亿市值的瑞信,结果抄完被套牢,还要受瑞士政府的强迫达成收购协议。同时,受伤的不止沙特金主一人,其他买了瑞信coco债的投资者也吃了哑巴亏。据瑞银公告称,瑞信的172亿美元的额外一级资本市场债券将全额减记,这类债券可叫AT1或叫coco债。这意味着瑞信的债券变得一文不值,买了该债券的人将无法拿到本金和利息。按理说,银行倒闭的清算顺序是存款→债→股,债券比股权的清算优先级要高,那为什么这些债被减记了?AT1债券在欧洲银行十分流行,主要以补充银行的一级资本金,这是一种可转换债券,在发行者的资本充足率低于某个水平时,就会触发转换机制,将债券转换为股票或者减记。由于欧洲长期处在低利率的环境下,市场投资者缺少高息债券,这些银行所发行的高息债券就吸引了很多投资者来购买,据了解,瑞信的AT1债券回报高达7%。有如此高的回报,也有相对应的高风险。AT1债券的合同里有一个条款名为“write down”(损失吸收机制),列出了银行在各式各样的情况下,AT1债可以被减记,投资者可能拿不回钱。其中即包括,银行一级资本金低于某个门槛时,银行出现挤提的风险时,AT1债就可以被减记。而目前瑞信就处在一级资本金低于某个门槛的情况,瑞信的AT1债符合被“write down”的条件。值得注意的是,coco债券市场总规模为2750亿美元,而现在瑞信价值170亿美元的coco债被减记后,意味着coco债券市场将要被重新定价。目前,亚洲部分银行的AT1债券大幅跳水,已创下最大跌幅,较面值跌去20%。现担忧的是,coco债券市场的价值会继续下跌,由于养老金、基金、保险是coco债券的主要持有人,若大跌持续下去,欧洲市场可能有更大的危机。据了解,太平洋投资管理公司、景顺控股、BFMC等机构是持有瑞信AT1债券的资产管理公司,而这些机构是一分钱都拿不回来了。结语现在欧洲市场在恐慌着瑞信coco债券的减记可能会蔓延至其他银行,其他银行的AT1债券价格若下跌,可能危机到其他银行的资本充足率,引起连锁反应。在瑞信这笔世纪交易中,沙特金主和买coco债的投资者属实最惨,一个持有的股份价值被缩减至20%,另一批投资者血亏160亿,在这次屈辱性的合并中,也展现出欧洲金融体系脆弱的一面。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6507,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943367614,"gmtCreate":1679152932639,"gmtModify":1679152936753,"author":{"id":"4094983188358330","authorId":"4094983188358330","name":"我是梦幻金钱战士","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/99cba128d11b8be74b1f95636cd22ed7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094983188358330","idStr":"4094983188358330"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943367614","repostId":"1114210525","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114210525","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1679140453,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1114210525?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-18 19:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"UBS is reportedly seeking support from Swiss authorities for any transaction with Credit Suisse.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114210525","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月18日,据知情人士透露,瑞银集团要求瑞士政府在收购瑞信集团时提供支持。瑞银正在讨论政府将在任何交易中承担某些法律费用或其他具体损失的情况。知情人士称,一种可能的情况是,瑞银将收购瑞信,以获得其财富","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On March 18, according to sources,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>The group requested support from the Swiss government in its acquisition of Credit Suisse Group. UBS is discussing whether the government will bear certain legal costs or other specific losses in any transaction.</p><p>Sources familiar with the matter say one possibility is that UBS will acquire Credit Suisse to obtain its wealth and asset management division, while potentially divesting its investment banking division. Negotiations are still ongoing over the fate of Credit Suisse's Swiss universal bank division, the only profitable major division of Credit Suisse last year.</p><p>Both UBS and Credit Suisse declined to comment on the news. The Swiss government and the Ministry of Finance did not respond to requests for comment. According to a source familiar with the matter, the goal of these negotiations is to announce the deal between the two banks no later than Sunday evening.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>UBS is reportedly seeking support from Swiss authorities for any transaction with Credit Suisse.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUBS is reportedly seeking support from Swiss authorities for any transaction with Credit Suisse.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-18 19:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On March 18, according to sources,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>The group requested support from the Swiss government in its acquisition of Credit Suisse Group. UBS is discussing whether the government will bear certain legal costs or other specific losses in any transaction.</p><p>Sources familiar with the matter say one possibility is that UBS will acquire Credit Suisse to obtain its wealth and asset management division, while potentially divesting its investment banking division. Negotiations are still ongoing over the fate of Credit Suisse's Swiss universal bank division, the only profitable major division of Credit Suisse last year.</p><p>Both UBS and Credit Suisse declined to comment on the news. The Swiss government and the Ministry of Finance did not respond to requests for comment. According to a source familiar with the matter, the goal of these negotiations is to announce the deal between the two banks no later than Sunday evening.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41a3265725dba67c0660b26a189585aa","relate_stocks":{"BK4118":"综合性资本市场","UBS":"瑞银","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4588":"碎股"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114210525","content_text":"3月18日,据知情人士透露,瑞银集团要求瑞士政府在收购瑞信集团时提供支持。瑞银正在讨论政府将在任何交易中承担某些法律费用或其他具体损失的情况。知情人士称,一种可能的情况是,瑞银将收购瑞信,以获得其财富和资产管理部门,同时可能剥离其投资银行部门。有关瑞信瑞士全能银行(Swiss universal bank)部门命运的谈判仍在进行中,该部门是瑞信去年唯一盈利的主要部门。瑞银和瑞信均拒绝对此消息置评。瑞士政府和财政部未回复置评请求。据此前一位知情人士透露,此次谈判的目标是最迟在周日晚间宣布两家银行之间的交易。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CS":0.9,"UBS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4655,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943050609,"gmtCreate":1678980089102,"gmtModify":1678980092992,"author":{"id":"4094983188358330","authorId":"4094983188358330","name":"我是梦幻金钱战士","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/99cba128d11b8be74b1f95636cd22ed7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094983188358330","idStr":"4094983188358330"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943050609","repostId":"1114791300","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4826,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943050828,"gmtCreate":1678980074264,"gmtModify":1678980078835,"author":{"id":"4094983188358330","authorId":"4094983188358330","name":"我是梦幻金钱战士","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/99cba128d11b8be74b1f95636cd22ed7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094983188358330","idStr":"4094983188358330"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌👌","listText":"👌👌","text":"👌👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943050828","repostId":"1149330042","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149330042","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1678975576,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1149330042?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-16 22:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"What was the outcome of the Credit Suisse crisis? JPMorgan Chase envisioned three options","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149330042","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"瑞信的危机最可能以该公司被对手瑞银收购告终。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Han Xuyang</p><p>Regarding the future development of the Credit Suisse crisis, JPMorgan Chase envisioned three scenarios and believed that the crisis would most likely end with the company being acquired by its rival UBS.</p><p>On Wednesday, JPMorgan analyst Kian Abouhossein and others offered three scenarios for Credit Suisse's future.<b>The most likely scenario is acquisition by rival UBS Group.</b>。 Analysts also said that given the market concentration of Credit Suisse and UBS, the Swiss banking business, worth 10 billion Swiss francs (approximately US$10.8 billion), could be listed or spun off after UBS acquires Credit Suisse.</p><p>In a report, Abouhossein stated that Credit Suisse's capital position is not an issue, but the current situation is that market confidence in its investment banking strategy continues to be problematic, and its business continues to be eroded. \"Maintaining the status quo is no longer an option.\"</p><p>Abouhossein is cautious about Credit Suisse and has rated the stock neutral or underweight for the past two years. He warned last month that the bank was deteriorating faster than expected, and the stock has since fallen 26%.</p><p>Media reports, citing sources familiar with the matter, revealed that a long-term partnership between Credit Suisse and UBS was one of the options discussed in negotiations between Credit Suisse and Swiss authorities on how to stabilize the bank. UBS CEO Ralph Hamers declined to answer any “hypothetical” questions about Credit Suisse on Wednesday.</p><p>Credit Suisse CEO Ulrich Koerner said in a memo to employees on Thursday that the bank will continue to focus on its turnaround plan, citing improved liquidity coverage and recent financing.</p><p>In addition,<b>JPMorgan Chase also listed a possible scenario: Credit Suisse would close its investment banking operations, but said that this move might not be enough to alleviate market concerns. The last possibility is for the Swiss National Bank to intervene, providing a full deposit guarantee or injecting share capital, but analysts also point out that this would severely dilute the equity of existing shareholders.</b></p><p>KBW analysts also support the view that Credit Suisse is undergoing a major restructuring. They wrote that the most likely outcome would be a spin-off, with further asset sales to \"simplify the bank\".</p><p>Bank of America analyst Alastair Ryan believes that<b>The support from the Swiss National Bank is a clear signal that Credit Suisse will continue to operate in its current form.</b>Alastair Ryan said, \"In fact, the regulators provided support through this statement, but it did not change Credit Suisse's structure or the nature of its continued operation.\" Bank of America is one of only two companies that still gives Credit Suisse a \"buy\" rating.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What was the outcome of the Credit Suisse crisis? JPMorgan Chase envisioned three options</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat was the outcome of the Credit Suisse crisis? JPMorgan Chase envisioned three options\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-16 22:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Han Xuyang</p><p>Regarding the future development of the Credit Suisse crisis, JPMorgan Chase envisioned three scenarios and believed that the crisis would most likely end with the company being acquired by its rival UBS.</p><p>On Wednesday, JPMorgan analyst Kian Abouhossein and others offered three scenarios for Credit Suisse's future.<b>The most likely scenario is acquisition by rival UBS Group.</b>。 Analysts also said that given the market concentration of Credit Suisse and UBS, the Swiss banking business, worth 10 billion Swiss francs (approximately US$10.8 billion), could be listed or spun off after UBS acquires Credit Suisse.</p><p>In a report, Abouhossein stated that Credit Suisse's capital position is not an issue, but the current situation is that market confidence in its investment banking strategy continues to be problematic, and its business continues to be eroded. \"Maintaining the status quo is no longer an option.\"</p><p>Abouhossein is cautious about Credit Suisse and has rated the stock neutral or underweight for the past two years. He warned last month that the bank was deteriorating faster than expected, and the stock has since fallen 26%.</p><p>Media reports, citing sources familiar with the matter, revealed that a long-term partnership between Credit Suisse and UBS was one of the options discussed in negotiations between Credit Suisse and Swiss authorities on how to stabilize the bank. UBS CEO Ralph Hamers declined to answer any “hypothetical” questions about Credit Suisse on Wednesday.</p><p>Credit Suisse CEO Ulrich Koerner said in a memo to employees on Thursday that the bank will continue to focus on its turnaround plan, citing improved liquidity coverage and recent financing.</p><p>In addition,<b>JPMorgan Chase also listed a possible scenario: Credit Suisse would close its investment banking operations, but said that this move might not be enough to alleviate market concerns. The last possibility is for the Swiss National Bank to intervene, providing a full deposit guarantee or injecting share capital, but analysts also point out that this would severely dilute the equity of existing shareholders.</b></p><p>KBW analysts also support the view that Credit Suisse is undergoing a major restructuring. They wrote that the most likely outcome would be a spin-off, with further asset sales to \"simplify the bank\".</p><p>Bank of America analyst Alastair Ryan believes that<b>The support from the Swiss National Bank is a clear signal that Credit Suisse will continue to operate in its current form.</b>Alastair Ryan said, \"In fact, the regulators provided support through this statement, but it did not change Credit Suisse's structure or the nature of its continued operation.\" Bank of America is one of only two companies that still gives Credit Suisse a \"buy\" rating.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3684219\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/875d82c9e8c668ce8d421b0f139c1129","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3684219","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1149330042","content_text":"作者:韩旭阳对于瑞信危机后续如何发展,摩根大通设想了三个方案,并认为瑞信的危机最可能以该公司被对手瑞银收购告终。周三,摩根大通分析师 Kian Abouhossein 等对瑞信的未来提出了三种设想,其中最有可能的是被对手瑞银集团收购。分析师们还表示,鉴于瑞信和瑞银的市场集中度,在瑞银收购瑞信后,价值100亿瑞士法郎(约合108亿美元)的瑞士银行业务可能会上市或分拆。Abouhossein 在一份报告中称,瑞信的资本状况不是问题,但目前的情况是,市场对其投资银行战略的信心持续出现问题,其业务也在持续受到侵蚀,“维持现状不再是一种选择”。Abouhossein 对瑞士信贷持谨慎态度,近两年来对该股的评级为中性或减持。他上个月警告称,该银行的恶化速度快于预期,此后该股已经下跌了26%。媒体援引知情人士透露,在瑞信与瑞士当局就如何稳定该行的谈判中,瑞信与瑞银的长期合作是讨论的选项之一。瑞银首席执行官 Ralph Hamers 周三拒绝回答有关瑞信的任何“假设性”问题。瑞信首席执行官 Ulrich Koerner 周四在给员工的备忘录中表示,该行将继续专注于其扭亏为盈的转型计划,理由是瑞信的流动性覆盖率有所提高,而且最近进行了融资。此外,摩根大通还列出了一种可能情况是瑞信关闭投行业务,但同时表示,此举可能不足以减轻市场的担忧。最后一种可能情况是瑞士央行介入,提供全额存款担保或注入股本,但分析师也指出,这将严重稀释现有股东的权益。KBW 分析师也支持瑞信正在进行重大重组的观点。他们写道,最有可能的结果是分拆,进一步出售资产以“简化银行”。而美国银行分析师 Alastair Ryan 认为,来自瑞士央行的支持是一个明确的信号,即瑞信将以目前的形式继续经营下去。Alastair Ryan 称:“实际上,监管部门通过这份声明提供了支持,但没有改变瑞信的结构或继续经营的性质。”美国银行是仅有的两家仍给予瑞信“买入”评级的公司之一。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4789,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}