To The Moon

A key theme from the latest Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm was that the Stockmarket is currently in the process of “letting-off steam” following the sharp rebound-rally. Valuations were one key example of “steam” building up… Bigger picture, we are in a cyclically overheated market, the various valuation indicators say it’s expensive, and that does create a risk of rapid resets and eventual valuation mean reversion. This is the risky end of the cycle. And before you tell me about AI buildout and all the rest of the good reasons why stocks are going up, I understand that, and so does everyone else, and let me assure you — there is always a reason. Bulls, Booms, and Bubbles start with good reason, and end when things get unreasonable. So, on the topic of today’s chart, are valuations unreasona

While space sector stocks will almost certainly go through cycles of major boom and bust along the path (just look at the drawdowns in the chart above), I think that path is headed much higher in the longer arc of history. There’s a few reasons for that. While major progress has been made in the commercial space sector, it’s still early days. Only a handful of companies have a proven track record for launch services so far — and outside of launch, most companies are either focused on manufacturing and/or operating satellites (with much of the current use case being earth observation and telecommunications). In the longer run it’s natural to expect this to expand to an array of orbital activities such as zero-gravity manufacturing, orbital space habitats for a variety of use cases (from tou

Chart of the Week - Space Stocks While most people are focused on AI stocks and Big Tech, this equal-weighted basket of space stocks* is up 17x off the low point in late-2022. This reflects some major strides that several of these companies are making as the commercial space sector goes from dream to reality, but a key part of the more recent run-up is also down to anticipation of the SpaceX IPO. My personal view is the commercial space sector and space economy will one day be much larger than even some of today’s biggest themes and sectors, and has a lot of growth ahead. So I reckon this is something to pay more attention to if it’s not yet on your radar, and it’s probably still early days in this story… $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$

Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 10 May 2026This week: technical check, equal-weighted S&P500, blow-off tops, asset allocations, passive investing, listed companies, sector skews, space stocks, Bitcoin...Welcome to the latest Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm!Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(ESmain)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$The equal-weighted S&P500 has stalled at resistance.(and the cap-w

Here's the topics & takeaways from my latest Weekly Macro Themes report: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ 1. Emerging Markets: remain bullish EM equities given improved technicals, reasonable valuations, favorable macro/fundamentals, and very light positioning despite positive sentiment. 2. US Tech Stocks: remain wary on tech stocks given elevated valuations and stretched positioning, but lift risk-watch given strong macro/fundamental momentum and bullish technicals. 3. Gold: gold faces significant down

Capital Expenditure (aka capex) by tech and tech related companies now accounts for half of all S&P500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ corporate capex. Depending on your perspective, this is either the most bullish or bearish chart you’ve seen today! The bulls will say this is a virtuous cycle of tech acceleration where more investment enables more breakthroughs, rapid rollout and scaling, which leads more revenues and favorable funding, which enables further investment (and so-on) The bears will say this decadal-doubling is unsustainable and a classic bubble sign + late-cycle signal (there appear to be trends and cycles in this chart). Meanwhile, economists might quip that it amounts to crowding out of investment that might have gone into industry, healt

Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: The S&P500 gained +10.4% in April (+5.3% YTD). A good (>5%) April bodes well for the rest of the year. Micro Cap stocks are making a big move (good sign for all stocks). There has been a big pivot in preference from cash-flow to capex. Value investing might(?) be dead, but don’t ignore valuations altogether. Overall, the “healthy correction” thesis is playing out near to textbook, and unless some new bad news or shocks show up, that means the path of least resistance is probably onwards and upwards… $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main

Here's the topics & takeaways from my latest Weekly Macro Themes report: 1. Global Growth: the weight of evidence points to ongoing global growth reacceleration in 2026 (this is supportive for risk assets, and tilts to a bullish bias for stocks). 2. Inflation Risk: expect higher inflation globally given starting point of higher than average inflation, stronger global growth, elevated inflation expectations, tight capacity, and rising commodity prices. 3. Treasuries: retain a bullish bias given cheap valuations, very light positioning/allocations, consensus bearish sentiment, but still waiting for macro/technical confirmation (not yet; mostly downside risk for bonds). 4. EM Bonds: remain bullish given cheap valuations, favorable technicals and sentiment, bullish EMFX outlook, but wary o

This week’s chart shows the market cap weighting of US semiconductor stocks (making record highs). It’s a remarkable chart because at ~14% it’s basically double the level it peaked at during the height of the dot-com bubble. It also comes at an interesting juncture as the $Philadelphia Semiconductor Index(SOX)$ (Semiconductors Index) just chalked-up a record 17-days in a row of gains. This is a dangerous market. It’s dangerous for bulls because these are the types of conditions where you often encounter sharp corrections and crashes (even if it is the way of the future). But it’s also dangerous for bears because this is basically the bubble-phase of the bull market — attempts at shorting could end up generating large losses in small time as a combi

Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 26 April 2026 This week: technical check, seasonality snippets, fund flows, semiconductors, market froth at the top, cyclicals, global growth, emerging market equities... Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: There’s a minor bearish breadth divergence on the S&P500. Seasonality is also moving into a weaker period. (albeit seasonality tends to be better when stocks are up YTD) Semis are surging, chalking up multiple records and extremes. Cyclicals vs defensives are confirming the bullish macro picture. Overall, there’s a couple of short-term technical risk flags to note (especially with geopolitics simmering and central banks in the wings) and plenty of pockets of froth still bubbling away in markets. But there’s also some bright spots (e.g. e