To The Moon

$Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ $Silver - main 2603(SImain)$ $Copper - main 2603(HGmain)$ Industrial Metals Breaking Out Happy New Year — and Happy New High in industrial metals!While this year has already gotten off to a bang on a number of fronts, in my view this may well be one of the most important price developments in markets so far.Given the influence of economic growth on industrial metal demand, arguably this is both a bullish market development by itself and a macro signal of a stronger global economy heading into 2026.Base Metals vs Monetary MetalsBase metals are starting to play catch-up vs monetary metals.As previously mused: “The economic log

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts:The S&P500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ gained +16.4% in 2025 (+17.9% including dividends).(yet it lagged behind global stocks, which saw 30%+ returns).Investor sentiment is booming (yet economic confidence is glooming).Tech sector earnings are going vertical, non-tech is going sideways.Tech/mega cap valuations extreme expensive, non-tech/SMID cap cheap.Overall, it turned out to be a good year for US stocks and a great year for global stocks. As such, sentiment is riding high as most everyone is patting themselves on the back following the gains of 2025. Keeping and building on those gains in 2026 is going to take a balance of optimism and trend following, as well as realism around some of the risks bui

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2603(ESmain)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ 1. Euphoria HeightsThe peak in this indicator at record highs helped forewarn of the April correction, but perhaps just as interesting is how it’s moved down again from a lower peak more recently. So an interesting one in retrospect, but also in reminding us not to get too complacent as risks build-up in the system.“sentiment has reached reco

Key Findings from the Latest Monthly pack:Global monetary policy settings have moved from headwind to substantial tailwinds as central banks step up precautionary easing into a window of contained inflation and macro downside risks.The big macro edge risks are recession (+deflation) on one edge vs reacceleration (+inflation resurgence) on the other edge.The US faces heightened risk of recession given confidence shocks of last year and deterioration in some labor market indicators, albeit with some offsetting factors e.g. fiscal stimulus, AI capex, rising asset prices.Meanwhile the rest of the world is looking better (Japan going strong, Europe and China turning up out of slowdown + stimulating).Among the asset classes most at risk of downside given (stretched) valuations and the stage of t

Learnings and conclusions from this session…Valuation: commodities (asset class level) are cheap.Cycle: serious underinvestment in supply + cyclical demand upturn.Monetary: supporting the cyclical upturn is substantial monetary tailwinds.Sentiment: investor sentiment is lukewarm, allocations are historically low.Technicals: a new cyclical bull market is getting underway; still early.Overall, there’s growing evidence for a new cyclical bull market in commodities (following a cyclical bear market from 2022-24). This is likely to become a major macro theme in 2026 (not to mention a very interesting opportunity for investment in both commodity related stocks and commodity prices themselves). Check out the charts and datapoints below and let me know what you think in the comments.1. Follow the

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2603(ESmain)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2603(NQmain)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ $Global X Dow 30 Covered Call ETF(DJIA)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ 1. Downturn Didn’t TurnIt looked like the property downturn in China was turning aroun

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2603(ESmain)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2603(NQmain)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ $E-mini Dow Jones - main 2603(YMmain)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ 1. When it’s Obvious…  This chart made the list because it illustrates a key ru

Precious Metal ProcessionIn hindsight this turned out to be a prophetic chart, I first mentioned it in April, and what a spectacular catch-up run we’ve seen by Silver & Platinum. $Silver - main 2603(SImain)$ $Platinum - main 2601(PLmain)$ Gold Outperformance ProcessionI first featured this chart back in February, suggesting room for catch-up by the black line (gold vs stocks relative performance). And gold sure did outperform vs stocks this year (gold up +66% vs stocks up +17%) — but perhaps the bigger open question is will the black line catch-up even further? (and what will that mean for how the world looks if that happens…) $Gold - main 2602(GCmain

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2603(ESmain)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ The “Presidential Cycle” points to a volatile and ranging 2026.Global stocks have significantly outperformed vs US stocks this year.Fund managers are running record low cash allocations.Mid-Cap stocks look cheap in absolute and relative terms.Rotation inflection points are emergi

1. Chinese Stocks: This chart and the thinking behind it helped in identifying one of the most underestimated and surprising strong performers in global markets this year. But that wasn’t the only part of the story.“2025 Surprise? Consensus does not see the possibility that Trade War 2.0 results in accelerated stimulus to counter headwinds –and a subsequent surge in domestic Chinese stocks (and the prospect that the disruptive new reformative policies potentially rattle expensive US stocks). While Chinese stocks are not without downside risk, there does appear to be an opportunity here.” (10 Jan 2025)2. China Tech: Chinese tech stocks staged a magnificent rally from significantly undervalued & underestimated levels. It was one of those classic contrarian setups, but also a major develo