To The Moon

Here’s how I’m currently seeing Macro & Markets: 🌎 Global ex-US Equities Still bullish on global ex-US equities, both outright and relative to the US. Valuations remain attractive, technicals are constructive, and the macro backdrop is supportive. Global equity gains have also started to broaden beyond the US, with Asia Pacific among the stronger regions recently. 🇺🇸 US Small Caps I remain bullish on US small caps. The valuation gap versus large caps and bonds remains attractive, while macro fundamentals are improving. Positioning and sentiment also remain relatively contrarian, which creates an interesting setup if the technical picture continues to improve. ⚖️ Global / Small / Value vs US / Large / Growth This is becoming one of the more interesting relative-value themes. I continue

Despite all that’s gone on this year we have actually seen quite a significant reacceleration in the global economy. Notably this has been particularly pronounced in the real-world cyclical parts of the economy (manufacturing, trade, fixed asset investment). That’s important because it’s those sectors that have the most direct impact on commodity prices. And it’s among the reasons (including geopolitics and supply constraints) we’ve seen such enduring and broad-based strength in commodities this year. It’s also been a key driver of upward pressure on inflation, and along with stronger growth has contributed to the global policy pivot to interest rate hikes that is currently underway (with the Fed likely joining the pivot party soon). This speaks to the highly cyclical nature of commodities

I wanted to share this topic from a recent Weekly Macro Themes report because things are getting interesting in this overlooked corner of global markets. But also this issue (upside risk in agricultural commodities) is interesting both from a position taking standpoint — and from a macro standpoint. Because upside in agri commodity prices will directly and acutely affect consumer prices aka inflation …which is probably one of the biggest macro issues right now (particularly given the impact on policymaking and bond markets). So I hope you find this rare dive into agri commodities interesting. First up is the Main Page for this topic, all topics in my weekly report take this format: an overall assessment (summing up the outlook), risks against the view, catalysts to reinforce the view, a ke

FOMC week is here, and the latest $S&P 500(.SPX)$ ChartStorm is flashing more warning signs than the headline index suggests. The key takeaway is simple: ⚠️ Breadth is deteriorating ⚠️ Correlations are becoming less comfortable ⚠️ Corporate bonds are sending caution signals ⚠️ Volatility is picking up ⚠️ Liquidity could become a headwind ⚠️ Growth has started losing momentum vs. value ⚠️ Semiconductors are stalling That combination matters. $SPX can still hold up while fewer stocks carry more of the index. But when breadth keeps weakening, leadership becomes narrower and the market becomes more vulnerable to a catalyst. And this week has one. 🏦 The Fed meets Sept. 15–16. Markets are now heavily pricing a rate hike after stronge

The Fed may have more work to do. Based on the usual relationship between inflation expectations and the labor market, the fed funds rate would be closer to 5% right now. That’s more than 100 bps above the current 3.75% level. 👀 The bigger issue is what’s happening underneath the surface. 🔥 Inflation expectations have settled into a higher range. 💼 The labor market is heating back up and remains relatively tight. Put those two pieces together and the current policy rate starts looking less restrictive than it appears. The Fed’s recent hesitation may have bought some time, but the data is pushing the other way. Recent inflation data has already increased market expectations for a hike, while stronger employment data has added more pressure. 📊 The chart tells the story clearly. If inflation

The charts are starting to tell a slightly different story. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is still near the highs, but the ride is getting less smooth. And some of the warning signs are showing up outside equities. Here are my biggest takeaways this week: 1️⃣ The S&P 500 is starting to wobble The trend hasn’t broken, but momentum is becoming less convincing. After such a strong run, even a modest pullback can expose how crowded positioning has become. 2️⃣ September weakness is showing up on schedule Seasonality is working against the bulls. September has historically been one of the weakest months for U.S. equities, so the timing of this slowdown isn’t exactly surprising. But seasonality alone isn't a short thesis. 3️⃣ Credit markets are starting to whi

Here’s the topics & takeaways from my latest report —it provides some high-level insights into how I am currently seeing Macro & Markets: 1. USD: continue to watch for short/medium-term upside risk in the US dollar as technicals, sentiment, positioning turn up, policy pivots, and geopolitical risks loom. 2. Gold: gold technicals have flipped to bullish (from previous bearish), but a number of downside risk flags remain (expensive valuations, crowded positioning, consensus bullish sentiment). 3. Treasuries: compelling contrarian bullish setup in bonds (cheap valuations, bearish sentiment, very low allocations/positioning, high risk perceptions), but still awaiting the macro/technical confirmation. 4. Risk Tables: overall there are plenty of strong and credible upside risks for growt

Every so often you come across a chart like this where there is a big long-term technical tension playing out. Bears will highlight the Lower major Highs (drawing the red line), bulls will highlight the Higher major Lows (drawing the green line). Both of them are right, and that’s the point. The technical tension = simultaneous up & down trends vying for dominance. I’ve seen this type of thing play out many times before across different assets and markets, and the resultant move tends to be violent, substantial, and sets the tone for many years to follow. And I see this setup here as no different. But then you also consider the macro influence of the US dollar, and you realize that this is not just a major issue for asset allocators and traders, but something that could have far reachi

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: 1. Sentiment is still majority consensus bullish. 2. Stock correlations have dropped to record lows. 3. Volatility (VIX) looks low vs seasonals and single-stock metrics. 4. Semis are still stuck in the mud (peaked, and looking weak). 5. Software is looking stronger (software vs hardware trade reversing?). Overall, the market mood remains bullish and there are some bullish rotation trades underway. But the question is when does this consensus bullishness become complacency? There are a few flags of a potential volatility flare-up on t

Hi everyone, Here are this week’s key macro and market themes. Inflation risks are rising, software stocks are staging a comeback, and value stocks may be quietly setting up for their next move. 1. Inflation risks remain elevated Global inflation still faces upside pressure from firmer commodity prices, geopolitical risks, tight capacity and relatively limited policy response. 2. Software stocks remain attractive Software stocks continue to look promising, supported by improving technicals, a major valuation reset and a still-solid earnings outlook despite AI-related concerns. 3. Stocks still have the edge over bonds Equities look increasingly expensive relative to bonds, while positioning is heavily tilted toward stocks. However, macro conditions, policy and technical signals continue to