To The Moon

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: Mag-7, the 493, cap + equal-weighted S&P500 have all peaked. Market messiness is coming right on schedule (seasonally speaking). Retail trading behavior is consistent with the hints of regime change. Fed rate hike risk echoes global trends, and may weight further on stocks. The backdrop of expensive valuations and low cash allocations is not ideal.

Chart: Bond Bear Market Bonds have been in a 6-year long bear market, with long-term treasuries seeing capital losses of -50% off the peak. Even after factoring in interest received and reinvested (but also adjusting for CPI), those who invested in $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ 20 years ago would be flat-to-negative on their investment. As a result, bonds are Unloved (consensus bearish sentiment), Undervalued (cheap on my indicators), and Underallocated (investor allocations to bonds are at 25-year lows). And I think this could be one of the biggest contrarian setups of our time…

Here’s the topics & takeaways from my latest report —it should give a good sense of what I tend to cover in the Topdown Pro service as well as providing some high-level insights into how I am currently seeing Macro & Markets: 1. Global Growth: the global growth reacceleration theme remains on-track, but there are increasing signs that the global economy may lose momentum into 2027. 2. Inflation Risk: despite an initial peak in some series, upside inflation risk remains a reality given elevated inflation expectations, tight capacity, improved growth, and geopolitics/oil price impacts. 3. GSV vs ULG: relative value extremes favor Global/Small/Value vs US/Large/Growth, but on all three counts a turning point in relative performance remains elusive (still only stop-start progress). 4.

The global economy has been riding the tailwinds from successive waves of monetary policy easing —and this has been a key factor behind the reacceleration we’ve seen this year (despite all that’s been going on in the world). But now those tailwinds are beginning to turn as central banks pivot back to rate hikes. With lingering upside risks to inflation, we’re likely to see more and more central banks pivot to rate hikes. So we’re going to be heading into 2027 with a distinctly different macro picture to that seen in 2026 as tailwinds turn to headwinds.

Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 19 July 2026 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ $Philadelphia Semiconductor Index(SOX)$ Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: The cap-weighted S&P500 is being held back by semis. The equal-weighted is looking good, and breadth is trending up. The unwind in Semis and Korean eq

Chart in Focus: Software Relative Value Once prized for their repeatable reliable cashflows and solid pace of growth, software stocks have gone from trading at a major Premium —to now a material Discount vs the rest of tech. The market has jumped to the conclusion that software is a sunset industry in the AI-age (given AI makes coding easier, and has made some software applications obsolete; increasing the pace of disruption). And as we can see in the chart below, relative-valuations have reflected that sentiment almost overnight. But when I see charts like this I think: that’s an extreme, and extremes can be a great source of opportunity. +when I hear the grim prognosis for software I think: wait a minute, if AI is really that useful then why can’t software companies use it? Why can’t the

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ Speculative trading in leveraged ETFs has surged. Investors are increasingly all-in on stocks (portfolio allocations). The Fed is becoming more hawkish (echoing global pivot to rate hikes). July-Oct tends to be a more volatile time of the year (historical averages). A long-term trend change is underway in US vs Global relative performance. Overall, a n

I sent a survey around yesterday asking what people think will be the biggest surprise for investors in H2 —and so far the top-voted candidate is “AI Bubble Burst”. Looking at some of the recent price action (e.g. the KOSPI is down -20% off the peak, the US SOX putting in a major topping pattern, Japan’s Softbank down -33%), I think they might be onto something. Which brings us to this week’s chart. It’s an update of the US Semiconductors market cap weight chart, which has pulled back from record highs. When I last featured this chart I mused: “semiconductors are in the bubble phase of the bull market (which is dangerous for both bulls and bears alike!)” That remains true, and the danger is that we are in the early stages of a bubble burst (they start with initial weakness; slowly at first

In terms of upsides and bullish-rotations, one area making big moves is small caps. After retesting its big breakout earlier this year small caps have had a strong run. And as previously outlined, small caps are trading on cheap valuations vs history (with good relative value vs bonds and vs large caps too). Thanks in part to passive index investing and the primacy of big tech, small caps have become a neglected part of the market e.g. ETF market share (implied allocations) and rolling net-fund-flows for small caps are ticking up off record lows. That is a classic contrarian bullish signal. On that basis, along with cheap valuations and bullish technicals, small caps likely have plenty of room to run from here (and offer a bright spot amongst the bearish banter).

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ The equal-weighted S&P500 continues to make new highs. The cap-weighted S&P500 remains stuck (thanks to “lag-7”). The S&P500 Value index also chalked up new highs last week. Micro caps and financials are putting in promising price action. The USA, Korea, and China have one bubbly thing in common. Overall, the bull-market-broadening and bull