To The Moon

5.0% Yield.Offering services to enhance margin including more small-business mix and specialized medical logistics services.Consolidating 200 sorting centers, with the new automated counterparts offering a reported 30% efficiency improvement.Expects to generate $5.8 billion in free cash in 2024, adding to its already massive $6.3 billion cash position.Industry-leading capital efficiency, with a return on invested capital median of 27% for the last 3 years.Investment Thesis $United Parcel Service Inc(UPS)$ is an American delivery company that processes more than 20 million packages per day across its fleet of 115,000 ground vehicles and 500 aircraft. UPS is repositioning to target more SMB (Small Medium Business) customers and more specialized logis

Economic and Market Review September 2024• Equity markets have strong year-to-date returns, with the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ having its first positive September in 5 years.• $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ and $Silver - main 2412(SImain)$ surge amid continued economic uncertainty and global conflict fears.OverviewThe Fed cut rates by 50bps. The market rallied on the news but flattened out as the month progressed, with the S&P ending the month up 2.8%. However, the last time the Fed cut rates by 50bps with markets at all time highs was in October 2007 – what followed in 2008 came to be known as the ‘great recession’.As a refences, at the time Debt to GDP

2.2% Yield.LW holds #1 market share in North America, and #2 for the rest of the world for frozen-potato products.Dominance in the frozen-potato product market, being the provider for French-fries for customers such as McDonalds, Chic Fil A, Arby’s and Sonic.Transitioning to a volume-focused growth strategy rather than pricing-focused.Expects headwinds in restaurant traffic to begin to alleviate in the middle of 2025.Investment Thesis $Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.(LW)$ is a consumer-staples company specializing in the production of frozen-potato products. Across 27 factories and in more than 100 countries, LW holds #1 market share in North America, and #2 for the rest of the world.As consumer finances have become strained, we believe that consumers wi

2.7% Yield.Kroger agreed to purchase Albertsons for $24.6 billion in October 2022.If approved, Albertsons shareholders will receive $27.25 per share, a 48.3% premium to the current stock price.Albertsons holds 6.4% of total grocery market share in 2023, while Kroger holds 10.1%.$600 million claw back provision to be paid to Albertsons if the merger does not go through, recouping its costs.Investment Thesis $Albertsons Companies, Inc.(ACI)$ is a US grocery chain that operates 2,269 stores across 20 banner brands including Safeway, Albertsons, Acme, and Shaw’s, and 3 private label brands that earn more than $1 billion each.Same store sales increased by 1.4% year over year in the quarter ended June 2024, with a minor expansion of gross margins to 28.4

2.94% Yield.Expanding margins despite sales slump, increasing gross margin by 160bps.Deleveraged balance sheet down to 1.8x net debt to EBITDA, down substantially from 2022 highs.Approaching holiday season will buoy results until rate cuts begin to impact consumer spending habits back toward discretionary goods.Resumed share buybacks, authorized outstanding buybacks are 13.6% of outstanding shares.Stock is a hold post August 21st earnings release as the stock has popped 22.5% since its August 5th lows.Investment Thesis $Target(TGT)$ is an American retailer that operates department stores. Despite resilient sales and expanding margins, Target has lagged peers like Walmart in capital appreciation. We feel this is due to economic uncertainty and

$DJIA(.DJI)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ $WTI Crude Oil - main 2410(CLmain)$ OverviewStocks have largely recovered from the almost 10% correction seen early in August, which was the worst start to a month since 2002. However, in just 11 trading days the market had recovered and even came near its record July highs.While the Fed has begun to telegraph it will likely cut before the year is out, the market may be jumping the gun, pricing in an aggressive 100bps cut by the end of the year. For September, 63% expect a 25bps cut, and 37% exp

4.2% Dividend YieldTrading at substantial discount to our $53 per share estimate of asset value.Timberland is good inflation hedge.Share repurchases demonstrate management’s belief in the underlying asset values.Strong real estate performance has offset the weak performance in the wood products segment.Lumber market appears to have bottomed out with expectations of a recovery in the spring.Investment Thesis $Potlatch(PCH)$ is a lumber REIT with 2.2 million acres of timberland and 7 sawmills, concentrated largely in the Pacific Northwest and Deep South.Currently, the lumber market is depressed by oversupply and unseasonably low construction demand. This has driven PotlatchDeltic’s price down by 11% over the trailing twelve months, now trading at a d

3.1% Dividend YieldMore than 500 brands globally, with 23 flagships earning more than $1 billion in revenue.Consumer staples giant, owning Quaker Foods, Frito-Lay, and Pepsi.Pepsi is trading at a discount compared to peers and its own historical valuation.Elevated capex for improving resilience in the supply chain and efficiency improvements.Expects long-term revenue growth between 4-6%, with high single digit earnings growth.Investment Thesis $Pepsi(PEP)$ is a diversified blue chip company providing beverages and snacks. PepsiCo operates in more than 200 territories and countries globally, with over 500 brands. The “flagship brands”, those that generate more than $1 billion in revenue, include 23 globally recognized names across both beverages and

8.9% Dividend Yield.Powerful brands including Audi, Lamborghini, Bentley, and majority ownership in Porsche.New EV JVs to reduce capital costs, with Rivian for global EVs and Xpeng for Chinese-made EVs.Cost savings program targeting $11 billion in total savings by 2026.11% market share, second in the world with 9.24 million vehicles delivered in 2023.Low valuation relative to peers, trading at just 3.1x earnings. Investment Thesis $Volkswagen AG(VWAGY)$ is a German automotive giant, encompassing more than 10 vehicle brands, including VW, Audi, Lamborghini, Bently, and several European brands like Skoda. During 2023, Volkswagen delivered 9.24 million vehicles in 153 countries.Additionally, Volkswagen holds significant ownership in the publicly tra

6.9% Dividend YieldStrong acquisition and expansion profile, focusing on building out utility and Gulf Coast capacity.Secular tailwinds in liquids from 500 Mbbl/d in expansion in the WCSB.Strong LNG and WCSB export demand driving expansionary footing.Expects continued capital deployment of $4-7 billion per year over the medium-term.Note: 1 CAD = $0.75 USD.Investment Thesis $Enbridge(ENB)$ is a combined liquids and natural gas midstream company, that also provides some utility service to end customers. ENB’s revenue profile is somewhere between a typical midstream player and a utility. This provides a revenue floor during low-price periods, though the tradeoff is often a cap on return on equity. ENB is undergoing a repositioning, expanding both