To The Moon

In a widely anticipated move, the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the 10th time in just over a year. The Fed fund rate now stands at a target range of 5%-5.25%, which is the highest it has been since August 2007.Source: Bloomberg During the news conference that followed the meeting, Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed that "a decision on a pause was not made today." This is despite the omission of a sentence stating that “the Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate." It appears that the Fed has finally reached the terminal rates it had set out to achieve. S&P 500 & Nasdaq Index, Source: Bloomberg The bond markets initially priced a rate hike in the June Fed meeting. However, the sentiment soon changed into a likely rate pause

(Previously) There's an old saying that fear brings fear. Sure enough, FRC collapsed; Microsoft, not surprisingly, has 310.As for the US banking sector, I have said before that the wave of small bank failures will not end and the big four banks are too big to fail.The big fish eating small fish in America's financial markets is also striking. I wrote a previous article on how to watch short positions. It turns out that American regulators are not stupid. After all, these officials have been on Wall Street before, and they know their own best. It's just a matter of getting caught.A bit of a problem on the employment front, written before the holidays: the current support level for US non-farm payrolls growth is healthier than

（前情提要）有句老話叫怕什麼來什麼，五一放假果然出幺蛾子了， $第一共和銀行(FRCB)$ 果然倒閉了，而微軟也不出意外的果然達到了310。朋友們，我就問你們機構給的這個答案標不標準：對於美國銀行業的看法，我之前也說過，小銀行倒閉潮不會結束，而四大銀行大而不倒，具體怎麼個不倒法，更形象的說法如知乎上這位朋友的回答：這次美國金融市場的大魚吃小魚也着實讓人開眼，之前寫過一篇文章如何觀察空頭佈局，獨家心得，事實證明美國監管不傻，畢竟這些官員之前也在華爾街幹過，自己人最瞭解自己人，只是能不能被抓住小辮子的問題。假期前寫的暴論，關於就業方面有點問題：目前美國非農就業增長的支撐層面比想象中健康。從這次的新增數據來看，4月新增非農就業25.3萬，預期18.5萬；新增私人非農就業23萬，預期16萬。2）4月失業率3.4%，預期3.6%；勞動參與率62.6%，預期62.6%。3）4月時薪同比4.4%，預期4.2%；時薪環比0.5%，預期0.3%。新增就業不光有醫療保健，服務業，還有專業和商業服務領域。專業和商業服務領域的涵蓋範圍如圖所示：AI產業浪潮不光穩定了股市，也重新分配了人力資源穩定了科技方向的就業市場。鮑威爾也認識到了美國就業結構並不單一，並不是單純以服務業增長爲主的不健康就業環境。所以在這次的FOMC新聞發佈會上也改變了對於衰退非線性的說法，認爲只會出現輕微的經濟衰退，此外還有銀

繼續睇談股市，近期美股依然挺得住主要是市場非常樂觀，遇上好消息時就看好股票市場，遇上壞消息是就憧憬聯儲局會減息救經濟，所以股票還沒有什麼大調整。加上幾隻大型科網股做好，所以今年以上的升幅大部分都是隻幾隻股票撐住，而這幾隻股票做好的部分原因其實來自大規模裁員。 只要有一些連環時件再度發生就有有連鎖效應，例如繼美國存款數量排14的First Repulic Bank之後，再有金融機構發生擠提、穩定幣出事、利息過高導致房貸爆破出現斷供潮等等。 美聯儲局預計很有機會在5月3日再加一次利率0.25%，之後應該暫時會停止，但短期內不會減息，歐洲央行應該再加一次0.5%，這個是好消息但一早已反映在股票市場中。反而利率到達高位，表示債券價格到了低位，大家可以更改自己的強積金去投資歐美債券的基金，或者最簡單投資的方法就是購入美股債券ETF。 中國GDP4.5%，消費部分比預期好，經濟雖然為去到疫情前的水平，但部分行業已經受惠，例如航空業、高端消費類別、消費品等，科技股也值得逢低吸納。 全球正經歷De-Dollarization的階段，多個國家都陸續增加非美元的外匯儲備、減少美元債券、以及和中國、俄羅斯等大國交易時改用本國貨幣取代美元，雖然要撼動美元還有很遠的距離，但這些舉動都會對另類資產例如黃金、比特幣、油價等有支持