Weekly: S&P 500 Nears Bear Market Exit? For Real or a Fake Out?

1. MAJOR INDEXES RETURNS

  • Lifted by a strong monthly U.S. jobs report and the resolution of the debt ceiling battle, stocks rallied on Thursday and Friday as the major indexes posted weekly gains of around 2%. The results pushed the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ above a narrow range that it has traded in since the start of April. 

  • $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ ’s latest weekly gain was its sixth in a row, the longest streak for the index since a string that ended in January 2020. At Friday’s close, the NASDAQ was at its highest level since April 2022.

  • As of last Friday, the$Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ lost 1.28% last week and$S&P/ASX 200(XJO.AU)$ lost 1.71% weekly.

  • The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ on the verge of exiting its longest bear-market run since 1948. Investors want to know if the move is for real or merely a fake out.

  • Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial, “Market needs to see that the rally is more than just those mega tech names, [but] in the broader market, especially the $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ , because that’s so closely associated with distress in the credit markets and the banks. That helps confirm this rally,” Krosby told MarketWatch via phone.

2. SECTORS AND STOCKS OF $S&P 500(.SPX)$

  • On the below chart, we can see all the sectors got increase with consumer cyclical sector see 5.45% weekly increase, as $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ gained 8.04%, $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ gained 15.09%.

  • Although U.S. stocks generally traded in a narrow range throughout May, performance varied widely among the major indexes. The $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ rose 5.8%, the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ gained 0.3%, and the $DJIA(.DJI)$ fell 3.5%. At the S&P 500 sector level, information technology posted the strongest result while energy had the weakest.

  • The first five months of 2023 produced widely varying returns at the sector level. Within the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ the information technology sector was up more than 33% year to date through May while communication services added 32%. Overall, 8 out of 11 sectors posted negative results, with energy down nearly 13% and financials down almost 8%.

4. MACRO FACTORS AND OTHER ASSETS

After a holiday-shorted trading week in which markets surged on the heels of a deal to raise the debt ceiling, next week could be more subdued?

Debt ceiling breakthrough: Financial market fears of a potential U.S. credit default were lifted as the House of Representatives and the Senate approved an agreement to lift the government’s debt ceiling for another two years. The measure was sent to the White House to be signed into law in advance of a June 5 deadline by which the government faced the risk of being unable to pay its bills.

Defying expectations: U.S. labor market strength again exceeded economists’ expectations, as the 339,000 jobs added last month came in well above the consensus forecast. The latest monthly figure was just below the 12-month average monthly gain of 341,000 jobs, and the totals for March and April were revised upward by a total of 93,000 jobs. 

Fading volatility: An index that measures investors’ expectations of short-term U.S. stock market volatility fell around 19% for the week, dropping to the lowest level in more than three years. The Cboe Volatility Index sank on Friday to 14.6, just above its level before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in February 2020.

Eurozone inflation: Inflation in the countries that use the euro currency eased more than expected in May, with the annual inflation rate dropping to 6.1% from 7.0% the previous month. May’s figure was the lowest for the eurozone since February 2022.

5. THE WEEK AHEAD : Jun 5-9

$Apple(AAPL)$ will help kickstart the week on Monday with its worldwide developer conference, at which it’s expected to unveil new releases. We’ll also get updates on U.S. factory orders, non-manufacturing services, the U.S. trade deficit, and consumer credit data. $JM Smucker(SJM)$ , $GameStop(GME)$ , $Brown-Forman(BF.A)$ , $Docusign(DOCU)$ , and $Seneca Foods Corp.(SENEL)$ will be among the companies reporting earnings next week.

Key events the coming week:

Monday

  • Fctory orders, U.S. Census Bureau

  • Institute for Supply Management’s nonmanufacturing index  

Tuesday

  • No major reports scheduled 

Wednesday

  • Consumer credit, U.S. Federal Reserve

  • Trade balance, U.S. Census Bureau  

Thursday

  • Wholesale inventories, U.S. Census Bureau 

  • Weekly unemployment claims, U.S. Department of Labor

Friday

  • No major reports scheduled 


How is your trading plan in this week?

Any special focus?

Please share with Tigers

Every valid comment will receive 5 tiger coins

# 💰 Stocks to watch today?(28 Mar)

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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  • Kok
    ·2023-06-05
    TOP
    Hope for a dip and buy on the cheap. The bull market has started, you shouldn't miss out. You will regret it.
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    • pjekn
      It's time to invest in your future, homie. You won't regret it 💰💸
      2023-06-05
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    • PUSHo
      on't let fear hold you back, my friend. Trust in the market 🤞
      2023-06-05
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  • icycrystal
    ·2023-06-05
    TOP
    my plan is to keep a watch on  $Apple(AAPL)$ and see which way the stock swings  [smile] [smile] [smile]
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    • lindsay877
      Cool plan! Are you hoping to make a profit or just curious about the market?
      2023-06-05
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    • FrankCollins
      Don't forget to take a breather and enjoy the ride, even if it gets bumpy! [grinning_face_with_sweat]
      2023-06-05
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  • airui
    ·2023-06-05
    TOP
    my plan is to sell calls options on $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ . RSI still above 80
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    • ALLinOne
      Good call on selling calls, but have you thought about the expiration date and strike price?
      2023-06-05
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    • WinfredBill
      I'm not an expert in finance, but it seems like RSI being above 80 might be a red flag. Have you thought about doing some more research before making a move?
      2023-06-05
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  • MeowKitty
    ·2023-06-05
    TOP
    My trading plan in this week is to focus on$Apple(APPL)$
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    • BrianWashington
      Interesting choice! Have you been keeping up with Apple's recent news and performance? 📰👀
      2023-06-05
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    • KennethLong
      Sounds like a solid plan! What's your strategy for trading Apple? 💰📈
      2023-06-05
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  • Bons
    ·2023-06-08
    TOP
    it will rise, I mean the market at the current trend, at least until the meeting of the Fed again. the market finally end its latest confusion after the drama of debt ceiling is over.
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  • LMSunshine
    ·2023-06-05
    TOP
    Sorry 🐯🐯🐯 can’t tag to inform you of 👍 staff posts and coin actuvities until notifications issue is solved. @TigerObserver THX Loads for weekly updates❣️ I‘ll be watching to see if chip stock corrects this week so that I can add more shares/stocks.
    Reply
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    • LMSunshineReplying to0QH
      Sighzzz
      2023-06-05
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    • 0QHReplying toLMSunshine
      oops. nope
      2023-06-05
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    • LMSunshineReplying to0QH
      Did you receive my tag for the daily discussions post today?
      2023-06-05
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  • Shyon
    ·2023-06-05
    TOP
    Been really a great rally week last week, this week focus is still on the AI related stocks by waiting for the healthy correction for a safe entry to maximize the risk reward ratio. Good luck guys! Gogogogo.
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    • ShyonReplying toWinston
      Sure, will keep in mind about the risk as well, thx
      2023-06-05
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    • ShyonReplying toStevenHarris
      Thanks and all the best to your trading as well
      2023-06-05
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    • StevenHarris
      Wishing you all the best for this week's focus.
      2023-06-05
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  • icycrystal
    ·2023-06-05
    @LMSunshine @GoodLife99 @Success88 @koolgal @SR050321 please share your thoughts [smile] [smile] [smile]
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    • icycrystalReplying toSR050321
      [smile] [smile] [smile]
      2023-06-05
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    • icycrystalReplying toLMSunshine
      oh really? you did get my tag? hurray! finally! [Sly] [Sly] [Sly] but am not sure if I am getting your tag? [Thinking]
      2023-06-05
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    • LMSunshine
      Got your tags this round😃 Thanks❣️
      2023-06-05
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  • 0QH
    ·2023-06-05
    probably staying on the sidelines as the market is too high. will wait for the next pullback which should be soon
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    • WillHenry
      Taking a pause for the cause 🤐Market's at an all-time high and I'm not quite sure what to do. Anyone else feeling indecisive? 🤷‍♀️
      2023-06-05
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    • DanielWilson
      Think I'll hold off for a bit 🙅‍♂️Market's been on a steady climb and I'm not sure it's sustainable. Anybody else feelin' me? 😅
      2023-06-05
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  • CL_Wong
    ·2023-06-05
    My trading plan in this week is to pay attention on $Apple(APPL)$
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  • Success88
    ·2023-06-05
    Real. I see bubble in AI stock
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  • ImMillionare
    ·2023-06-06
    Great ariticle, would you like to share it?
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  • Thonyaunn
    ·2023-06-06
    My trading plan for this week is to focus on $Apple(APPL)$
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  • Prostock
    ·2023-06-05

    Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

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  • WonderElephant
    ·2023-06-05
    Watching banks stocks
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  • sh99
    ·2023-06-05
    tx us tx
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  • Lamborghini1
    ·2023-06-05
    👍
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