Weekly: S&P 500 Nears Bear Market Exit? For Real or a Fake Out?
1. MAJOR INDEXES RETURNS
Lifted by a strong monthly U.S. jobs report and the resolution of the debt ceiling battle, stocks rallied on Thursday and Friday as the major indexes posted weekly gains of around 2%. The results pushed the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ above a narrow range that it has traded in since the start of April.
$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ ’s latest weekly gain was its sixth in a row, the longest streak for the index since a string that ended in January 2020. At Friday’s close, the NASDAQ was at its highest level since April 2022.
As of last Friday, the$Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ lost 1.28% last week and$S&P/ASX 200(XJO.AU)$ lost 1.71% weekly.
The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ on the verge of exiting its longest bear-market run since 1948. Investors want to know if the move is for real or merely a fake out.
Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial, “Market needs to see that the rally is more than just those mega tech names, [but] in the broader market, especially the $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ , because that’s so closely associated with distress in the credit markets and the banks. That helps confirm this rally,” Krosby told MarketWatch via phone.
2. SECTORS AND STOCKS OF $S&P 500(.SPX)$
On the below chart, we can see all the sectors got increase with consumer cyclical sector see 5.45% weekly increase, as $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ gained 8.04%, $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ gained 15.09%.
Although U.S. stocks generally traded in a narrow range throughout May, performance varied widely among the major indexes. The $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ rose 5.8%, the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ gained 0.3%, and the $DJIA(.DJI)$ fell 3.5%. At the S&P 500 sector level, information technology posted the strongest result while energy had the weakest.
The first five months of 2023 produced widely varying returns at the sector level. Within the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ the information technology sector was up more than 33% year to date through May while communication services added 32%. Overall, 8 out of 11 sectors posted negative results, with energy down nearly 13% and financials down almost 8%.
The top 10 winners of $S&P 500(.SPX)$ are $Gap(GPS)$ , $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ , $Match(MTCH)$ , $Intel(INTC)$ , $Digital Realty Trust Inc(DLR)$ , $Hanesbrands(HBI)$ , $American Express(AXP)$ , $Netflix(NFLX)$, $Broadcom(AVGO)$ , $Adobe(ADBE)$
4. MACRO FACTORS AND OTHER ASSETS
After a holiday-shorted trading week in which markets surged on the heels of a deal to raise the debt ceiling, next week could be more subdued?
Debt ceiling breakthrough: Financial market fears of a potential U.S. credit default were lifted as the House of Representatives and the Senate approved an agreement to lift the government’s debt ceiling for another two years. The measure was sent to the White House to be signed into law in advance of a June 5 deadline by which the government faced the risk of being unable to pay its bills.
Defying expectations: U.S. labor market strength again exceeded economists’ expectations, as the 339,000 jobs added last month came in well above the consensus forecast. The latest monthly figure was just below the 12-month average monthly gain of 341,000 jobs, and the totals for March and April were revised upward by a total of 93,000 jobs.
Fading volatility: An index that measures investors’ expectations of short-term U.S. stock market volatility fell around 19% for the week, dropping to the lowest level in more than three years. The Cboe Volatility Index sank on Friday to 14.6, just above its level before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in February 2020.
Eurozone inflation: Inflation in the countries that use the euro currency eased more than expected in May, with the annual inflation rate dropping to 6.1% from 7.0% the previous month. May’s figure was the lowest for the eurozone since February 2022.
5. THE WEEK AHEAD : Jun 5-9
$Apple(AAPL)$ will help kickstart the week on Monday with its worldwide developer conference, at which it’s expected to unveil new releases. We’ll also get updates on U.S. factory orders, non-manufacturing services, the U.S. trade deficit, and consumer credit data. $JM Smucker(SJM)$ , $GameStop(GME)$ , $Brown-Forman(BF.A)$ , $Docusign(DOCU)$ , and $Seneca Foods Corp.(SENEL)$ will be among the companies reporting earnings next week.
Key events the coming week:
Monday
Fctory orders, U.S. Census Bureau
Institute for Supply Management’s nonmanufacturing index
Tuesday
No major reports scheduled
Wednesday
Consumer credit, U.S. Federal Reserve
Trade balance, U.S. Census Bureau
Thursday
Wholesale inventories, U.S. Census Bureau
Weekly unemployment claims, U.S. Department of Labor
Friday
No major reports scheduled
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