$Microsoft(MSFT)$ πΊπ ±ππ »π »π Έππ ·πΊ
$MSFT Refer to the chart image. It needs to hold the purple support below. It should push out as shown AFTER the election on remember, remember the 5th of November. βΌοΈπ¨ EOM breakdown risk, if the price doesn't hold these levels!
ποΈπ°π¨ ππ Ύπππ ²π ΄: π Άπππ
Recent insights from analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reveal that Microsoft (MSFT, Financial) is currently the largest global customer for Nvidia's Blackwell GB200 chips. Orders from Microsoft in the fourth quarter are projected to surge three to four times, surpassing the combined total orders of all other cloud service providers.
Microsoft's demand for the GB200 chipset has significantly increased, with the fourth quarter seeing a notable rise. Suppliers of key components for the GB200 are gearing up for large-scale production and shipment in the fourth quarter of 2024, ensuring Microsoft receives priority over other cloud service providers. The revenue recognition by component suppliers is expected to occur ahead of assembly vendors due to advanced shipments regardless of the latter's assembly capacity.
Nvidia's Blackwell chip capacity expansion is set to start in early Q4 2024, with anticipated shipments between 150,000 and 200,000 units. A significant growth of 200% to 250% in shipments is expected in Q1 2025, reaching between 500,000 to 550,000 units.
Microsoft is aggressively pursuing GB200 procurement. In addition to planned test orders in Q4 2024, Microsoft is set to secure custom GB200 NVL72 units before the reference design enters mass production in mid-Q2 2025. The order volume for Microsoft in Q4 2024 has jumped from the initial 300-500 racks to approximately 1,400-1,500 racks, with 70% being the NVL72 model. Subsequent orders will focus mainly on the NVL72.
Even as assembly supplier Foxconn's capacity remains uncertain, Microsoft has negotiated with key component suppliers to expand production capacity in Q4 2024 to 1.5 to 2 times the original capacity, preparing for anticipated demand.
According to investigations on assembly suppliers Foxconn and Quanta, Microsoft's GB200 orders currently exceed the total of other cloud service providers. Microsoft plans to prioritize deployment in cooler climate data centers, such as those in Washington, USA, Quebec, Canada, and Helsinki, Finland, to mitigate potential impacts from insufficient cooling system optimization time.
Other cloud service providers like Amazon have placed smaller orders for Q4 2024, with 300-400 rack orders for GB200 NVL36, and Meta focusing on Ariel architecture instead of Bianca, indicating Microsoft's current commanding demand for GB200 chips compared to its peers.
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Microsoft (MSFT) Stock Analysis:
Business and Industry: Microsoft is a multinational technology company that develops, manufactures, licenses, supports, and sells computer software, consumer electronics, personal computers, and related services. The company operates through three segments: Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing. Microsoft is a leader in the technology industry and is expected to continue to grow as digital transformation accelerates globally.
Latest Earnings and Forecast: Microsoft recently reported its earnings for the fourth quarter of 2024. The company's EPS (Earnings Per Share) for the quarter was $2.96, with a gross profit margin of 69.59% and a net profit margin of 34.04%. The Return on Equity (ROE) for the quarter was 33.80%, and the Return on Investment (ROI) was 19.24%. Looking ahead, analysts forecast that Microsoft's EPS for the next fiscal year (2025FY) will be $13.07, with a projected gross income of $278.96 billion and EBIT (Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) of $122.64 billion. The earnings forecast indicates positive growth prospects for the company.
Recent Trends: The current stock price of Microsoft is $418.16. The support price is $417.68, and the resistance price is $418.88. The average cost is $418.52. The stock has been experiencing capital inflow and outflow, with a 5-day net capital flow of -112,884.53 thousand units. On a 1-day basis, the total inflow was $1.04 billion, and the total outflow was $107.59 million.
Analyst Viewpoints: Analysts have provided recommendations for Microsoft, with 20 recommending the stock, 34 giving it a buy rating, and 4 recommending to hold. As for the target price, there are 46 analysts who have provided estimates. The mean target price is $495.97, with a low estimate of $440.00 and a high estimate of $600.00. The analyst recommendations and target price indicate a positive outlook for the stock.
Recent News: Recent insights from analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reveal that Microsoft has become the largest global customer for Nvidia's Blackwell GB200 chips. Microsoft's orders for the fourth quarter are expected to surge three to four times, surpassing the combined total orders of all other cloud service providers. Microsoft's demand for the GB200 chipset has significantly increased, and suppliers are gearing up for production and shipment in the fourth quarter to prioritize Microsoft's orders. This news suggests strong growth potential for Microsoft in the cloud services sector.
Please note that the above analysis is based on available information and historical data, and it should not be considered as investment advice. Investing in the stock market involves risks, and investors should conduct their own research and analysis before making any investment decisions.
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