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November Wrap-Up: Will December Bring a Santa Rally?
@Tiger_commentsοΌAs of Thanksgiving, $.SPX(.SPX)$ has risen 5.14% this month, with a year-to-date (YTD) gain of 25%. $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ is up over 27%. This has truly been "the best month" β did you earn money? After significant gains, will Santa rally arrive? Strong November momentum is said to likely carry into December. According to the Almanac, December is historically the third-best month for major averages. During presidential election years, however, it becomes the second-best month for the Dow and the S&P 500. In the final month, should you take profits or stay bullish for 2025? With the market hitting new highs, multiple Wall Street firms have raised their 2025 targets for U.S. equities. Most major institutions predict further gains next year. The boldest call comes from Deutsche Bank, which has set a 2025 year-end target of 7,000 for the S&P 500. However, some caution is warranted. Analysts warn of the risks of high valuations. As shown below, the CAPE (Shiller PE) ratio currently stands at 38.41x, matching the peak of the 2021 pandemic bull market and second only to the dot-com bubble peak of 44.19x. A high Shiller PE suggests the market or stocks may be overvalued relative to historical earnings, which could signal lower future returns. The challenge, however, is predicting how long the market can remain exuberant before a correction. Given current conditions, the potential for further valuation expansion appears limited. If 2025 sees gains, they are likely to be driven by earnings growth. As a result, seeking alpha will become increasingly critical in 2025. Performance disparities between sectors and companies are expected to be significant. Which sectors could drive 2025 alpha? AI: A hot AI healthcare company, $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$, has gained 61% this month. $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ has struggled recentlyβwill it shine again in 2026? Trump-themed stocks: $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ , $Trump Media & Technology(DJT)$, or $CME Bitcoin - main 2412(BTCmain)$? Emerging sectors: Quantum computing stocks like $Quantum Computing Inc.(QUBT)$ and $QUANTUM CORP(QMCO)$ , along with drone companies like $Unusual Machines Inc(UMAC)$ and $Archer Aviation Inc.(ACHR)$, have soared over 100% this month. Previous hot sectors like nuclear energy and rocket stocks also continue to deliver impressive gains. Did you profit from the November rally? Will the Santa rally materialize? Are you bullish on 2025βs growth potential? Which sectors do you believe hold the most promise? Leave your comments and also post to win tiger coins~
November Wrap-Up: Will December Bring a Santa Rally?Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.