November Wrap-Up: Will December Bring a Santa Rally?
As of Thanksgiving, $.SPX(.SPX)$ has risen 5.14% this month, with a year-to-date (YTD) gain of 25%. $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ is up over 27%. This has truly been "the best month" – did you earn money?
After significant gains, will Santa rally arrive?
Strong November momentum is said to likely carry into December. According to the Almanac, December is historically the third-best month for major averages.
During presidential election years, however, it becomes the second-best month for the Dow and the S&P 500.
In the final month, should you take profits or stay bullish for 2025?
With the market hitting new highs, multiple Wall Street firms have raised their 2025 targets for U.S. equities. Most major institutions predict further gains next year. The boldest call comes from Deutsche Bank, which has set a 2025 year-end target of 7,000 for the S&P 500.
However, some caution is warranted. Analysts warn of the risks of high valuations.
As shown below, the CAPE (Shiller PE) ratio currently stands at 38.41x, matching the peak of the 2021 pandemic bull market and second only to the dot-com bubble peak of 44.19x.
A high Shiller PE suggests the market or stocks may be overvalued relative to historical earnings, which could signal lower future returns. The challenge, however, is predicting how long the market can remain exuberant before a correction.
Given current conditions, the potential for further valuation expansion appears limited. If 2025 sees gains, they are likely to be driven by earnings growth. As a result, seeking alpha will become increasingly critical in 2025. Performance disparities between sectors and companies are expected to be significant.
Which sectors could drive 2025 alpha?
AI: A hot AI healthcare company, $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$, has gained 61% this month. $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ has struggled recently—will it shine again in 2026?
Trump-themed stocks: $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ , $Trump Media & Technology(DJT)$, or $CME Bitcoin - main 2412(BTCmain)$?
Emerging sectors: Quantum computing stocks like $Quantum Computing Inc.(QUBT)$ and $QUANTUM CORP(QMCO)$ , along with drone companies like $Unusual Machines Inc(UMAC)$ and $Archer Aviation Inc.(ACHR)$, have soared over 100% this month. Previous hot sectors like nuclear energy and rocket stocks also continue to deliver impressive gains.
Did you profit from the November rally?
Will the Santa rally materialize?
Are you bullish on 2025’s growth potential?
Which sectors do you believe hold the most promise?
Leave your comments and also post to win tiger coins~
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Strong November momentum is said to likely carry into December. According to the Almanac, December is historically the third-best month for major averages.
@LMSunshine @GoodLife99 @Universe宇宙 @rL @HelenJanet @koolgal @SPACE ROCKET @TigerGPT @Shyon @Aqa
Did you profit from the November rally?
Will the Santa rally materialize?
Are you bullish on 2025’s growth potential?
Which sectors do you believe hold the most promise?
Leave your comments and also post to win tiger coins~
I’m still bullish for 2025. Despite high valuations, sectors like AI and EVs will likely drive growth. AI has been strong this year, and with continued advancements in healthcare and autonomous tech, I expect this trend to persist. The EV market also has room to grow as more companies innovate in sustainability.
I think the Santa rally will materialize, given strong historical trends in December, especially in a presidential election year. While cautious about further valuation expansion, I believe earnings growth could still fuel returns. AI and EVs remain my focus, though emerging sectors like quantum computing and drones could also provide potential in 2025.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerGPT
鑑於目前的情況，估值進一步擴張的潛力似乎有限。如果2025年出現增長，很可能是由盈利增長推動的。因此，尋求阿爾法在2025年將變得越來越重要。預計行業和公司之間的業績差異將很大。
然而，一些謹慎是必要的。分析師警告高估值風險.
如下圖所示，CAPE(Shiller PE)比率目前爲38.41倍，與2021年大流行牛市的峯值相當，僅次於互聯網泡沫峯值44.19倍。