To The Moon

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Costco(COST)$ 📉 🪤🔥Nvidia’s $60M Put Wall: Crash Signal or Genius Trap? 🔥🪤

$NVDA lit up the options tape on Thursday with a $60M bomb in short-dated, single-leg ask-side puts, stacked sky-high. Is this a crash signal, or the ultimate trap?

At $101.27 post-market, Nvidia’s on a knife-edge, while tech traders hold their breath. This isn’t noise, it’s a screaming alert from the institutional playbook.

📉 Puts Are Piling Up, Big Money’s Betting on Pain 📉

Puts: $59.75M, towering bearish bets

Calls: $5.31M, barely a murmur

Not a tilt, it’s a full-on “brace for impact” signal.

🔑 Key Levels to Watch, Break These and It’s Game Over

🔴 $96.00 is the last stand, cracks here open the door to $92

🟠 $98.00 marks the liquidity shelf, where big players tend to lurk

🟡 $99.60 is the first test, watch it like a hawk

Slip below $99.60 and it’s a slide. If $96 folds, it’s freefall.

🧠 From King to Cautionary Tale

Top 10% of megacaps to bottom 10%, Nvidia’s a champ hitting the mat, hard.

📉 Indicators Flashing Red 🚨

RSI(6): 61.84 → cooling fast

MACD: Bearish flip, momentum’s bleeding

MA5 ($117.83) vs MA10 ($84.26): Pressure cooker ready to blow

🧭🇨🇳 China: Long Game, Short-Term Pain

Huang’s China talks protect $5.5B amid U.S. chip curbs, a bold play, but markets price risk now.

🥩🛍️🛒 Costco vs Nvidia: Valuation Smackdown

$NVDA: P/E 23x, +37% growth, growth rocket

$COST: P/E 53x, +9% growth, pricey grocery cart

🌭 Hotdogs over AI chips? Mispricing screams correction.

🧬 Chart Pack Goldmine attached

Put-Call Chaos: Puts dwarf calls

Valuation WTF: Nvidia vs Costco

Tech Breakdown: RSI, MACD souring

Key Zones: $106.17, $105.06, $99.62

Order Flow: Puts like a fortress wall

❓ Panic or Power Play?

$60M put wall, overreaction or tech meltdown’s first domino?

To capitalise on a potential downtrend in $NVDA, I’m eyeing the GraniteShares 2x Short NVDA Daily ETF ($NVD). This ETF gives me leveraged exposure to the stock’s downside, aiming for -2x the daily percentage move. In other words, if $NVDA drops 1%, $NVD is designed to pop roughly 2% (before fees). Given the recent setup, including the $60M short-dated put wall, collapsing technicals, and geopolitical headwinds, this is my tactical pick.

Here’s why I’m using $NVD over other inverse plays:

1. Direct Leverage on NVDA’s Decline

$NVD offers clean, amplified exposure to NVDA’s downside. With NVDA already down 26% from its highs and $266B shaved off its market cap due to U.S. chip restrictions and valuation resets, $NVD sharpens the short without needing margin.

2. Macro & Market Alignment

2025 is hitting NVDA on multiple fronts:

   •   China risk: $5.5B in sales are at stake from export curbs. CEO Jensen Huang’s recent diplomacy signals urgency, but the market’s already pricing risk.

   •   Valuation reset: Despite a forward P/E of 23x (far below $COST at 53x), NVDA trades 423% above its historical average. Citi just cut their target to $150.

   •   Technical fragility: As of 17Apr25, NVDA’s at $101.49, sitting above critical Fibonacci supports at $99.60 and $96.00. Momentum is fading fast, with RSI cooling at 61.84 and MACD turning bearish.

3. Surgical Precision for Short-Term Plays

$NVD is perfect for short-term swings. It resets daily, so I can trade around catalysts like earnings on 28Aug25 or tariff headlines. Unlike sector-wide ETFs, it’s laser-focused, no AMD or TSMC dilution muddying the waters.

4. Simpler Execution, Cleaner Risk

Trading $NVD through my regular account avoids short-selling complexity. No margin, no collateral, my max risk is what I put in. That’s key when volatility runs hot, like the current 13.99% monthly drop and 7.20% weekly decline.

Why I’m Not Using Other ETFs

   •   $NVDD only gives -1x exposure, less juice, less reward

   •   Sector ETFs like $SSG short the whole chip space, but other names (e.g. $TSMC) are holding up and can offset NVDA’s move

   •   $NVDY focuses on income via covered calls. That caps upside and doesn’t track NVDA’s fall, it’s not a bearish tool

The Risks I’m Managing

   •   Leverage decay: Holding too long in a choppy range can eat returns. I use it for targeted trades

   •   Reversal risk: NVDA still has strong fundamentals. A surprise earnings beat or softened U.S.-China tension could spark a sharp bounce

   •   Volatility: This is not a set-and-forget play. $NVD can swing violently

Conclusion

For me, $NVD is the precision instrument to ride NVDA’s potential breakdown. It aligns with everything I’m seeing, technical cracks, macro risk, and the options market’s $60M alarm bell. I’ll be watching $99.60 and $96.00 closely for entries, and managing this with discipline given its amplified structure. High risk, high reward, but that’s the edge.

❓❔How are you trading $NVDA based on narrative momentum, technical inflection points, or options market asymmetry & how are you weighting each in your conviction levels?

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