[Stock Prediction] Can Xiaomi Rebound to 59 or Face More Downside?
Xiaomiwill report its Q1 2025 earnings on May 27. Analysts expect revenue of RMB 109 billion and adjusted net profit of RMB 9.1 billion, up more than 85% year-over-year. $XIAOMI-W(01810)$ $Xiaomi Corp.(XIACY)$
Smartphone shipments in China rose 40%, pushing Xiaomi back to the top of the market. The company also unveiled its first self-developed 3nm chip, marking a key step in its move upmarket.
In the EV segment, Xiaomi delivered 25,000 SU7 units in Q1, reaching nearly 30% of its full-year delivery target. With production ramping up and a new model (the YU7 SUV) expected this summer, investors are watching for more signals in this report.
The stock is currently trading around HK$51. Huaxing Securities has a target price of HK$70, while some valuation models suggest limited upside. Will strong Q1 results and upcoming catalysts drive a rebound—or has the market priced it all in?
🗓 Xiaomi ’s earnings call will be held on May 27, 2025, at approximately 19:30 SGT. To set a reminder, click here.
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I am bullish about this matter. Xiaomi’s Q1 momentum looks very encouraging. A revenue forecast of RMB 109B and adjusted net profit jumping over 85% YoY is a strong comeback signal. Regaining top position in China’s smartphone market with 40% shipment growth shows solid consumer traction — especially in a competitive landscape.
More importantly, Xiaomi’s vertical integration strategy is starting to take shape. The self-developed 3nm chip is a major leap forward, not just for branding but also for long-term margin control and product differentiation.
On the EV front, hitting 25,000 SU7 deliveries in Q1 — nearly 30% of the annual goal — shows real market acceptance. With the YU7 SUV coming this summer, there’s a strong product pipeline ahead. If production scales smoothly, this segment could be a powerful new revenue driver.
At HK$51, I believe Xiaomi still has runway. With Huaxing’s HK$70 target and multiple growth catalysts in play, the upside potential remains intact — especially if Q1 results beat and guidance stays upbeat.
我看好这件事。小米Q1的势头看起来非常令人鼓舞。收入预测为人民币109B元，调整后净利润同比增长85%以上，这是一个强烈的卷土重来信号。以40%的出货量增长重新夺回中国智能手机市场的领先地位，显示出强大的消费者吸引力——尤其是在竞争激烈的环境中。
更重要的是，小米的垂直整合战略初具规模。自研3nm芯片是一次重大飞跃，不仅是为了品牌化，也是为了长期利润控制和产品差异化。
在电动汽车方面，第一季度SU7交付量达到25,000辆，接近年度目标的30%，显示出真正的市场接受度。随着YU7 SUV将于今年夏天上市，未来将有一个强大的产品线。如果生产规模顺利扩大，这一细分市场可能会成为强大的新收入驱动力。
51港元，相信小米还有跑道。随着华兴70港元的目标和多种增长催化剂的发挥，上涨潜力仍然完好无损——特别是如果第一季度业绩好于预期且指引保持乐观的话。