To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares(TSLL)$ $GraniteShares 2x Long TSLA Daily ETF(TSLR)$ 🚘📈🅱️U̥ L̥ L̥ I̥ S̥ H̥📈🤖   🔋🤖📈 Tesla’s Renaissance: From Controversy to Autonomous Ambition, Is $415 Just the Beginning? 📈🤖🚀

12Jun25, 🇳🇿NZST 

After a week of turbulence, Tesla’s stock is carving out a compelling narrative of recovery and reinvention. Elon Musk’s public reconciliation with President Trump has defused a simmering political risk, while the looming robotaxi launch in Austin signals a seismic shift in Tesla’s trajectory. With technical indicators aligning, options markets pulsing with intent, and macroeconomic tailwinds gathering, the question isn’t whether Tesla ($TSLA) can reclaim its momentum, it’s how far this wave will carry it. I’m diving into the data, dissecting the catalysts, and mapping out what’s next for this electrifying asset.

📊 Charting the Course: Technical Signals Pointing Upward

Tesla’s price action is painting a picture of resilience. After last week’s dip, sparked by Musk’s now-retracted clash with Trump, the stock rebounded sharply from the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $327.80. As of today, it’s hovering near $332.94, testing the weekly 30-period moving average at $335.16, a level that’s historically acted as a springboard or ceiling. The volume profile reveals persistent buying between $291 and $335, suggesting a sturdy accumulation zone.

The setup aligns with an Elliott Wave framework, the recent low likely marked the end of wave iv, and we’re now in the early stages of wave v. If momentum holds, targets at $397.01 and $415.39 come into view, with $350 as the next resistance hurdle. A break above $335 with conviction could ignite a gamma squeeze, especially given elevated call activity. Conversely, a slip below $312.50 would jeopardise the bullish thesis, potentially dragging price back to $291. For now, momentum is brewing, and the structure supports a push higher if catalysts align.

💰 Options Oracle: What the Big Money Is Betting On

The options market is a live wire for Tesla right now, crackling with institutional intent. On Monday, short-dated call volume exceeded $25 million, with open interest piling up at $335, $340, and $350 strikes. More striking, whales are loading up on October $600 calls, a bold bet on a moonshot rally. Options analytics show open interest on these contracts surging over 150 percent in the past week, reflecting growing confidence in a substantial upside move.

We’re currently in a gamma-neutral zone, but if price breaches $350 with volume, dealer adjustments could amplify the move into a self-reinforcing rally. The confluence of the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and gamma flip zone around $327 to $335 increases the probability of a breakout rally if $350 clears. This isn’t retail speculation, this is calculated institutional positioning.

🚗 Robotaxi Revolution: Redefining Tesla’s Future

The robotaxi launch slated for 22Jun25 in Austin isn’t just a tech showcase, it’s the cornerstone of Tesla’s next chapter. With 10 to 20 vehicles hitting the streets in an invite-only rollout, this pilot blends Uber’s ride-hailing dynamism with Airbnb’s peer-to-peer monetisation, all powered by Tesla’s full-self-driving (FSD) tech. Owners will soon dispatch their cars into a decentralised fleet, earning income from idle hours without lifting a finger.

This model is a game-changer. The global ride-hailing market is forecast to hit $300 billion by 2030. If Tesla captures even 10 percent of that, we’re looking at $30 billion in annual revenue, far above current vehicle margins. Tesla’s vertical stack, spanning AI, hardware, and a fleet fed by 20 million real-world vehicles, gives it a structural edge. Wall Street’s still valuing Tesla like a carmaker, but this pivot could force a complete valuation reset. June 22 isn’t just a date, it could be the inflection point.

🤝 Political Peace: Musk and Trump Bury the Hatchet

Musk’s soft apology to Trump, “I regret some of my posts last week,” reset the regulatory landscape overnight. The prior feud had placed federal EV subsidies, AI policy, and government contract opportunities at risk. Trump’s response this week suggests a détente is in motion. That dramatically reduces headline risk and bolsters Tesla’s odds of federal policy support heading into the 2025 election cycle.

📉 Macro Forces: Tailwinds in the Wind Tunnel

Tesla doesn’t operate in a vacuum. The Federal Reserve’s November 2024 25 bps rate cut eases capital costs across the board, a major tailwind for capital-intensive innovators. Rising oil prices, Brent crude near $75, reinforce the EV value prop. BloombergNEF projects 20 percent global EV sales growth in 2025. Tesla, with 40 percent plus U.S. revenue exposure, is insulated from some China friction, but trade war risk still looms. Macro’s not perfect, but it’s swinging in Tesla’s favour.

📰 Media Mirage: The Clickbait Gap

Waymo had 696 accidents between 2021 and 2024, yet barely a peep in the media. One Tesla scrape, front-page fury. According to NHTSA, Tesla’s per-mile accident rate remains below the U.S. average. The narrative distortion isn’t about safety, it’s about engagement. And smart money knows it. As media perception begins to realign with Tesla’s actual data-driven safety record, sentiment could shift materially.

📊 Hedge Funds and Analysts: Sentiment Reset in Motion

Top firms are leaning back in. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas raised his target to $400 citing autonomy optionality. Wedbush’s Dan Ives holds at $450, calling robotaxis “the golden goose.” Citadel added 12 percent to its stake in Q3 filings. Cathie Wood doubled down with ARK, reaffirming a $2,000 bull case by 2030. FactSet’s median target now sits at $415, though bearish calls around $250 persist, mainly tied to execution risk.

👁️ Eyes on the Prize: Forward Watchlist

   •   22Jun25: Robotaxi launch, vehicle count and user feedback

   •   28Jun25: Factory-to-home autonomous delivery demo

   •   October options flow, shifts in $400 to $600 strike range

   •   Q2 earnings (July), guidance on robotaxi monetisation

   •   FSD v12 adoption and state-level AV regulation updates

🛣️ Price Pathways

   •   Bullish: $415.39 short-term, with $446.91 to $503.08 in play on euphoric breakouts

   •   Neutral: $304 to $335 channel if volume lags or catalysts delay

   •   Bearish: Breakdown under $312.50 opens move to $291 or even $270.66

🧠 The Big Picture: Tesla’s AI Moment

Tesla is no longer just an EV company, it’s evolving into an AI-powered transport platform. The robotaxi pivot opens entirely new revenue verticals. With vertical integration and an unrivalled data moat, Tesla’s ecosystem is structurally superior to anything else in the space. At ~11x forward sales, the stock doesn’t yet reflect that future. If robotaxis prove viable this month, that discount won’t last.

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