To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares(TSLL)$ 🚨🤖🚗 Tesla’s Real-World Robotaxis: Breakout or Bull Trap? 🚗🤖🚨

On 23Jun24, 🇺🇸 US Time, Tesla didn’t simulate a robotaxi future, it launched it.

Actual paying passengers, Model Ys powered by Full Self-Driving (FSD), safety monitors in the front, and a 10 square mile geofenced launch zone in Austin. Elon Musk celebrated the milestone, posting:

“Super congratulations to the Tesla AI software and chip design teams on a successful robotaxi launch!!”

This wasn’t a publicity stunt. This was Tesla becoming the first automaker in the world to monetise a true autonomous ride-hailing service. And the market responded in kind. $TSLA surged +9.3% intraday to $352.93, backed by a thunderous 60.8M volume spike, crushing its 45M daily average.

But what happens now?

📊 Technicals: Fibonacci, Breakout Levels, and Volume Cues

Tesla is now dancing at a critical inflection point. Post-launch, price rebounded from $344 and surged into $357.54, aligning with the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern I’ve been watching. Just overhead?

$362, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and a known rejection zone.

If we see a close above $362 with sustained volume over 40M, I’m targeting:

$384 (61.8% retracement)

$420 (high-volume shelf)

and eventually $453.25 or even a moonshot toward $488, the prior high.

That’s up to +19% upside from here.

But if price stalls or fades at resistance, I’m watching $348, $344, and deeper downside to $305.52, the 23.6% retracement, or even $300, flagged by Fairlead Strategies as long-term support.

This setup is visualised clearly in the chart I’ve posted, watch the bull flag breakout and confluence with the anchored VWAP. It’s clean.

Options traders are piling into $370 and $400 calls. Open interest at those levels is growing rapidly, suggesting potential gamma fuel ahead. Short interest currently sits at 12.4% of float, with 3.2 days to cover, a confirmed breakout could force a cover rush.

📉 Fundamentals: Monetisation Velocity and the Real Advantage

Everyone’s debating valuation, but I’m focused on monetisation velocity. Unlike Waymo, Tesla owns the full vertical stack, chip, vehicle, OS, and service. That gives it speed, control, and scalability. The ability to tweak features OTA, scale hardware in-house, and operate end-to-end is a monumental edge.

This edge is powered by Tesla’s Dojo supercomputer and its in-house AI chip design, giving it a first-mover advantage in neural net training efficiency and autonomous feedback loops.

ARK’s Cathie Wood pegs 88% of Tesla’s future value to robotaxis, projecting a $2,600 stock by 2029. Dan Ives from Wedbush, who personally rode in a Tesla robotaxi, called it “safe, comfortable, and personalised.” He’s at $400. Piper Sandler agrees.

On the bear side, UBS downgraded $TSLA with a $215 price target, arguing the robotaxi thesis was already priced in. Guggenheim’s Ronald Jewsikow called the launch “uneventful” despite clean technical performance, still rating Tesla a Sell. FactSet has Tesla trading at nearly 170x 2025 earnings, valuation sceptics are circling.

But let’s not gloss over the milestone. Tesla has now taken money for an autonomous ride. That’s a line few, if any, others have crossed.

🌐 Macro Landscape: Fed Pivot, AI Momentum, and Regulatory Wild Cards

Zooming out, macro winds are shifting favourably. The Fed’s latest dot plot now implies a 3.9% year-end rate, with two expected cuts, a dovish turn that should boost high-duration growth stocks like Tesla.

AI and robotics capital flows are accelerating. Institutional funds are rotating into next-gen infrastructure, and Tesla’s end-to-end stack makes it one of the only real pure plays on autonomous mobility.

ETF flows are reflecting this shift. I’m watching $TSLA weighting within ARKK and QQQ closely this week. If Tesla inflows rise post-launch, it could become a self-fulfilling upside trigger.

But September brings risk. Texas AV permit rules go live on 1Sep25. If Tesla hasn’t secured regulatory alignment, it could stall expansion plans just as momentum picks up. Meanwhile, Waymo, completing over 250,000 driverless rides weekly, just applied for a permit in NYC. This race is anything but uncontested.

Tesla’s prior earnings guidance called for robotaxi rollout to begin in 2024 with mass deployment by 2025. That timeline is now in motion. Earnings are due in late July, which may offer the next major catalyst or test.

🌍 Global Expansion: Eyes on China 🇨🇳 and India 🇮🇷

While Austin is the proof point, global scaling will determine investor upside. China, where Tesla already holds regulatory FSD meetings, could be the prize. And if Tesla pushes into India’s ride-hailing ecosystem via partnerships or regulatory openings, the TAM could multiply overnight.

📆 Recent Events and Delivery Risks

Tesla’s EV delivery growth is under scrutiny. Analysts like Colin Langan at Wells Fargo warn a 50% spike in June is needed to hit Q2 goals. Add falling ZEV credits and a $1.9B free cash flow burn projected in 2025, and it’s clear Tesla’s robotaxi business must pull serious weight soon or risk dragging on margins.

Protests in Austin over AV safety and transparency are also picking up. The geofenced launch was limited, around 10 to 20 Model Ys, with selected influencers. There is no public-facing app or broad consumer rollout yet, this was a curated preview. The real stress test will come when everyday users engage.

But the tech worked. A robotaxi pulled over for an ambulance, no drama, just autonomous driving with human awareness. That’s not just innovation, that’s civilisational infrastructure.

📋 What I’m Watching Next:

Price action at $362, key breakout or rejection level

Volume above 40M, otherwise I’m cautious of a fade

Texas AV permit enforcement (1Sep25), regulatory readiness

Options OI clusters at $370 and $400, possible gamma magnet zones

Waymo vs Tesla deployment speeds, the real AV showdown

ARK, QQQ, and institutional ETF flows into $TSLA

Public app rollout or expansion into China and India

Earnings commentary in late July

🚀 My Unique Take: The Future Has Already Boarded

Forget the noise. Tesla is already monetising AI-driven transportation, and doing it with their own hardware, chips, and software. Waymo can’t say that. Uber can’t scale that. Legacy automakers are a generation behind.

Ark estimates Tesla could generate 5 to 10 times more revenue per vehicle via robotaxis than traditional EV sales. That’s the kind of margin shift that rewrites valuation models entirely.

And when you hear a Tesla pull over for an ambulance, you’re not hearing about a company. You’re watching the beginning of human-machine symbiosis on our roads.

No more road rage. No more drunk drivers. No more distractions.

This isn’t the future, this is Tesla, now.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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