To The Moon

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ 📈📊🔥 The $SPY Monthly Candle Is a Once-in-a-Generation Beast 🔥📊📈

No surprises, no shocks, just a masterclass in market choreography; and it’s all playing out exactly as anticipated.

🎯 I’m Decoding a Chart So Sharp It Cuts Through the Noise

🌮 Let’s start with what didn’t happen: no new deals out of the 9Jul trade talks. Again. That saga’s been recycled more than 3,000 times. Meanwhile, the 30% tariffs on 🇲🇽 Mexico and the EU were already priced in by funds weeks ago. The market’s not reacting because it’s not new. That’s the point: surprise is the mother of volatility, and right now, surprise is off the table.

Zooming out to the $SPY monthly chart, I’m staring at what may be the most technically outrageous candle I’ll see in my trading lifetime. A V-shaped recovery off the $481.80 bottom that never violated key longer-term supports, followed by eight straight green weekly closes pushing us back toward $626.87, now just under the neckline of the February high. The wick off the March low tapped the exact breakout retest of the January 2022 peak around $479.98, with record-setting volume. It was textbook, just louder.

🧠 Here’s What I See on the Weekly

We’ve got the 5EMA at $611.03 curling up hard, and the 10EMA at $598.13 riding tight underneath. Price action is cleanly above the 20 and 30EMA, holding $575.85 and $583.11 respectively. The MACD histogram is accelerating, not flattening, with a bullish crossover that’s gaining strength. RSI(12) at 64.20 hasn’t overheated yet, giving this rally more room to breathe. There’s a rising wedge forming, but volume still supports the move for now. The market’s comfortable here because it’s prepared. There’s no ‘what if’ panic left to discount.

The key level I’m watching is $626.87. If $SPY breaks and closes above that on the weekly, $644.28 becomes the next natural extension level. Failure to clear brings a retest of $598 as a healthy reload zone. No signs of reversal yet. I’m treating dips as rotational liquidity hunts, not breakdowns.

⚡️ TSLA’s Reversal Isn’t Just Luck; It’s Intentional Structure

Elon Musk is in the headlines again, this time with a mix of political spectacle and social media fireworks. But none of that qualifies as market-moving unless it’s truly novel. The real story is technical!

This week, $TSLA defended its 20-week moving average like a fortress. The bounce off $292.61 was clean and confirmed by a tight MACD cross to the upside (DIF: 3.53, DEA: 1.81), with RSI(12) at 50.57—neutral but leaning bullish. I’m keeping close eyes on the $368 level. A weekly close above it could trigger the next leg of momentum. But if price breaks below $273 with volume, the structure unravels and we enter bearish territory.

This is a pivotal zone for Tesla. It’s not just noise anymore; it’s approaching resolution. Short interest remains elevated, and options flow this week showed a sharp rise in call buying around the $330 to $360 zone, suggesting speculative anticipation of a July breakout. But it’s not confirmed until price leads.

🌍 Macro View: The Market Is Calm Because It Was Told to Be

There’s no true chaos priced in. Biden’s tariff posture was forecasted in macro desks since April. EU’s likely retaliation is ceremonial, not systemic. Markets hate uncertainty; this cycle doesn’t have it. That’s why $SPY can print a candle of this magnitude and do it with composure. Fed policy is locked into a “hold and wait” stance, with swap markets pricing just one cut before year-end. Inflation data is cooling globally, and the dollar is holding flat. The VIX barely flickered.

In this environment, capital rotates instead of evacuates.

💸 Hedge Fund Sentiment and Forecasts

🏦 Bank of America’s latest fund manager survey shows cash positions at their lowest since 2021. JPMorgan has quietly raised its $SPY year-end target to $660, citing AI-driven EPS upgrades and stable macro. Goldman Sachs noted that downside hedges have collapsed to multi-year lows, which matches the falling put-call ratio and supports the continuation of bullish grind.

On Tesla, Wedbush reiterated their $350 price target, calling this a “pre-robotaxi reaccumulation phase.” Morgan Stanley remains more cautious, holding at $310, but noted the technical compression could resolve sharply in either direction this month. Watch implied volatility.

🔍 My Forward-Looking Watchlist This Week

• $SPY: Weekly close above $626.87 confirms bullish extension. Resistance levels sit at $628, $630, and $635. A dip to $622 or $617 could provide support if momentum fades. A sustained break below $621 would force a reassessment of trend conviction.

• $TSLA: I’m closely tracking the $292–$368 range. A breakout above $368 confirms momentum. Resistance sits around $313–$314 short term. If price breaks below $290, risk increases for a deeper pullback toward $273 or even $250.

• $NVDA: If price holds above $161.40, it remains a compelling dip zone. Below that, I’m watching $154.63 (harmonic inflection), $151.65 (former breakout structure), and $142.80 (10-week MA + Fib 0.382). If $168 is reclaimed, I’m targeting $173.60 (AB=CD completion) and $181.20 (wedge breakout extension).

• $SMH: Semiconductors remain constructive as a group. Trend is intact with support at $244 and breakout potential above $252.

• $QQQ: Riding on megacap strength, with support near $478 and resistance at $492. A breakout above $492 could bring $504 into view.

• $DXY: As long as the dollar stays rangebound between 103.20 and 105.00, equities should continue to attract flow.

• $VIX: Still stuck in a low-volatility regime. If it spikes above 17, I’ll reassess equity exposure and hedges.

🔎 Earnings Week: Volatility Triggers & Market Impact

• Big bank earnings kick off this week: JPMorgan, Citi, Wells Fargo are reporting Tuesday; Goldman, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley follow on Wednesday. These names dominate trading revenue narratives and sentiment, especially given strong pressure trading and tariff-adjustment flows. Positive surprises could boost equity flow; disappointments may amplify volatility.  

• Next big macro cues: Tuesday’s CPI release lands mid‑week, right in the heart of earnings season; any inflation surprises or commentary on tariff pass-through will jolt markets.

• Volatility mechanics during earnings: Firm-level events tend to spike implied volatility heading into earnings, then produce sharp IV crushes post-release. Index-level volatility like the VIX is far less sensitive, usually moving only modestly during earnings weeks. 

• Historic behavior: Earnings season tends to raise volatility on average, with certain weeks (especially second and final weeks of the cycle) showing higher risk. But this effect isn’t guaranteed every year, environmental factors and breadth of surprises still matter.()

• Stock-level drift effect: When companies beat or miss materially, prices often continue drifting in that direction for weeks following the report; analysts call this Post Earnings Announcement Drift (PEAD). It’s persistent, and can be amplified in stocks with lower liquidity or high uncertainty. 

• Why this matters now: Banks will set the tone early, followed by tech firms and CPI data midweek. That combination is a perfect storm for intra-week swings. Markets will interpret inflation beats or misses through the lens of forward earnings resilience. Underperformance in banks or tech could feed back directly into broader index volatility, even if VIX remains subdued.

🎯 Here’s How I’m Framing the Week

If a headline doesn’t contain genuine surprise, it’s not a catalyst; it’s theatre. This market isn’t ignoring noise; it already accounted for it. That’s why we’re seeing this controlled, almost surgical push higher on $SPY. Tesla is the exception, less about macro, more about narrative inflection. And right now, the technicals are front-running the next chapter.

I’ll keep using the chart as my compass, not the chatter!

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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