To The Moon

The week of July 14-18, 2025, is a high-stakes battleground for investors, with a trifecta of Q2 earnings, critical economic data, and “Crypto Week” legislation set to ignite the stock market. The S&P 500’s resilience at 6,263.26 and the Nasdaq’s record highs at 20,630 signal optimism, but the VIX at 15.94 warns of volatility as tariff tensions and geopolitical risks loom. From bank earnings to tech giants and crypto stocks, this week offers explosive opportunities for traders and investors. Happy 22nd birthday to me—here’s to better luck in stocks and trading together as always! This report highlights the key catalysts, top stocks to watch, and strategic trading approaches to seize the moment while managing risks.

Market Catalysts: What’s Driving the Action

Q2 Earnings Season

The Q2 earnings season is in full swing, with major companies reporting results that could shape sector trends:

• Tuesday, July 15: Citigroup (C), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) kick off bank earnings, with JPM expecting a 15% EPS growth to $4.47 and Citigroup forecasting a 12% rise to $1.39. Strong results could lift financials; misses might trigger sell-offs.

• Wednesday, July 16: ASML, Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and Morgan Stanley (MS) report, with ASML’s AI chip equipment demand and GS’s trading strength in focus.

• Thursday, July 17: Netflix (NFLX) and TSMC (TSM) drop results, with TSMC’s 39% Q2 revenue growth ($20.8 billion) and $1.48 EPS beat setting a high bar. Netflix’s subscriber growth is key.

Economic Data Releases

Economic indicators will influence market sentiment:

• June CPI (July 15): Projected at 2.33%, the lowest since January 2019’s 1.97%. A lower reading could boost rate-sensitive stocks like NVDA and MSFT, while a higher CPI might lift financials like JPM.

• Federal Reserve’s Beige Book (July 16): Offers insights into U.S. economic conditions, potentially impacting Fed rate cut expectations (70% chance for September, per futures markets).

• Retail Sales (July 17): June retail sales data will gauge consumer strength, with strong numbers supporting consumer stocks like DAL and weak data pressuring them.

Crypto Week Legislation

The House’s “Crypto Week” (July 14-18) features three bills:

• GENIUS Act: Establishes stablecoin regulations, boosting stocks like Coinbase (COIN) and Circle (CRCL).

• CLARITY Act: Defines digital assets as securities or commodities, reducing uncertainty for crypto exchanges.

• CBDC Anti-Surveillance State Act: Blocks a government digital currency, supporting decentralized crypto.

Positive outcomes could drive COIN to $400, while delays might test $350, per analyst estimates.

Tariff and Geopolitical Risks

Trump’s tariffs (30% on EU/Mexico, 35% on Canada, effective August 1) have softened, with the White House calling deadlines “not critical.” Deal progress could lift tech (NVDA, MSFT) and consumer stocks (DAL); failures might trigger a 5-10% S&P 500 pullback to 5,800-6,000. The Israel-Iran conflict, with oil at $75 per barrel, supports energy stocks like ExxonMobil (XOM) but pressures consumer sectors.

Social media sentiment on X is bullish, with users hyping bank earnings, TSMC’s AI surge, and crypto bills, but tariff fears spark warnings of a “market correction.”

Top Stocks to Watch

Here’s a curated list of stocks poised for action this week, driven by earnings, economic data, and sector trends:

• NVIDIA (NVDA): Up 171% YTD to $167, with China sales resumption and Q2 earnings (August 27) expected at $47 billion. Targets $190, with support at $150.

• Microsoft (MSFT): Up 30% YTD to $475, with Q2 earnings (July 29) forecasting $65 billion revenue. Targets $550, with support at $450.

• Tesla (TSLA): Up 10% YTD to $315.35, with a 4.73% surge on Grok-4 integration. Targets $350, with support at $280.

• Coinbase ( $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ ): Up 171% YTD to $382.60, driven by Bitcoin’s $118K surge and Crypto Week. Targets $400, with support at $350.

• Palantir (PLTR): Up 83.95% YTD to $139.12, with 39% Q1 revenue growth. Targets $155, with support at $120.

• JPMorgan Chase ( $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ ): Q2 earnings expected to show $4.47 EPS (up 15% YoY). Targets $190, with support at $175.

• Citigroup (C): Q2 EPS forecast at $1.39 (up 12% YoY). Targets $70, with support at $55.

• Wells Fargo ( $Wells Fargo(WFC)$ ): Q2 earnings could signal NII recovery, with EPS up 14% YoY. Targets $60, with support at $50.

• Netflix ( $Netflix(NFLX)$ ): Q2 earnings (July 17) expected to show 18% EPS growth. Targets $700, with support at $600.

• TSMC ( $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ ): Q2 earnings beat with $20.8 billion revenue (up 39% YoY). Targets $200, with support at $170.

Trading Opportunities

Short-Term Plays

• Buy JPMorgan on Earnings Beat: Enter at $175-$180, target $190, stop at $170. A 5-8% gain if Q2 earnings exceed $4.47 EPS.

• Buy TSMC on Dip: Grab at $170-$180, target $200, stop at $165. A 11-18% gain if AI demand persists.

• Options Straddle: Buy $180 calls/puts on JPM or $650 calls/puts on NFLX for earnings volatility.

• Buy Coinbase on Crypto Week: Enter at $350-$360, target $400, stop at $330. A 10-14% gain if bills pass.

Long-Term Investments

• Hold NVIDIA: Buy at $150-$155, target $200-$250, for 22-55% upside with AI growth.

• Hold Microsoft: Buy at $450-$460, target $550, for 15-22% upside with cloud/AI growth.

• Diversify with Tech ETF (XLK): Buy at $200, target $220, stop at $190, for broad tech exposure.

Hedge Strategies

• VIXY ETF: Buy at $15, target $18, stop at $13, to hedge against tariff or CPI volatility.

• SPY ETF Puts: Use puts at $614 to protect against a 5-10% S&P 500 pullback.

• Gold ETF (GLD): Buy at $200, target $220, stop at $190, as a safe-haven hedge.

My Trading Plan

I’m bullish on NVIDIA for its AI leadership and JPMorgan for its earnings strength but cautious about tariff and CPI risks. I’ll buy NVDA at $150-$155, targeting $190, with a $140 stop, and JPM at $175-$180, targeting $190, with a $170 stop. For diversification, I’ll add COIN at $350-$360, targeting $400, with a $330 stop, betting on Crypto Week momentum. I’m hedging with VIXY at $15, targeting $18, and keeping 20% cash to seize dips if tariffs (e.g., U.S.-China trade tensions) or geopolitical tensions (Israel-Iran conflict) shake markets. I’ll monitor CPI data, Q2 earnings, and Crypto Week developments for cues. Happy 22nd birthday to me—here’s to better luck in stocks and trading together as always!

The Bigger Picture

The week of July 14-18, 2025, is a high-stakes period with Q2 earnings from banks (JPM, C, WFC), tech giants (NFLX, TSM), and economic data like June CPI (2.33%) driving market action. NVIDIA’s China sales resumption, Coinbase’s crypto surge, and Tesla’s AI-driven momentum add to the opportunities, while tariff risks (30% on EU/Mexico, 35% on Canada) and geopolitical tensions (Israel-Iran conflict, oil at $75 per barrel) keep volatility alive. Investors should buy on dips for long-term gains, use options for earnings volatility, and hedge with VIXY or GLD to manage risks. The market’s a wild ride—pick your winners and trade smart.

What’s your top stock pick for this week? Are you betting on banks, tech, or crypto? Share your strategy below! 🎁

📢 Like, repost, and follow for daily updates on market trends and stock insights.

📝 Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

📌@Daily_Discussion @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerEvents @TigerWire