To The Moon

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ 🚀🔥💥 Nvidia Surges as China Chip Flow Returns: Trump, H20, and a $5B/Quarter Catalyst 💥🔥🚀

Nvidia just pulled off the most geopolitically charged reversal in tech since Huawei; Washington has greenlit H20 AI chip exports to China. With that, NVDA didn’t just reclaim $170, it smashed through, hitting a new all-time high at $171.35.

But this is just the opening act. The All-In Summit this week brings Trump face to face with Nvidia, AMD, Google, and MP executives. If H20 and MI308 shipments are formally endorsed on stage, we could be looking at a $220 reprice before earnings!

📊 Charts Don’t Whisper: They Roar

Momentum has gone vertical. NVDA is riding a clean breakout above $172.40, which had been prior resistance from late 2024. RSI is hot across all frames:

• RSI(6) at 87.51

• MACD trending steeply bullish, with a wide divergence

• All key moving averages fanned upward, with price accelerating well above the MA5 and MA10 clusters

🟢 The momentum score is now pegged at 5/5 (as of 14Jul25), confirming maximal trend strength. The weekly chart reflects a parabolic incline off the $86.62 base earlier this year.

💸 $1.4M Bet on $230 by 2026: Deep Call Flow Just Hit

On 15Jul, nearly $1.5M in premium was deployed into a far-dated $230 strike call expiring 20Mar2026, currently 34% out-of-the-money.

• Volume: 1,992 contracts

• OI: 863

• Avg price: $7.35

• Implied volatility: 42%

• Call/put ratio: 0.44

This wasn’t retail FOMO, it was a size trade dropped just as the morning breakout ignited. The time horizon signals institutional conviction in Nvidia’s runway, not just a short-term pop.

📈 Income Statement Power: $76.8B Net Income, 53% Margins

The latest LTM data shows Nvidia’s financials aren’t just strong; they’re unprecedented:

• Revenue: $148.5B (+86.2%)

• Gross Profit: $104.1B at 70.1% margin

• Net Income: $76.8B (+80.2%), net margin 51.7%

• R&D is up 49%, fuelling continued product leadership

Data centre revenue alone is $131.7B, up 100.2% YoY, now representing nearly 89% of total revenue. With H20 shipments back online, this engine is about to roar again.

🏦 BofA Reacts: $220 Price Target Locked In

Bank of America lifted its price target to $220, assuming $4–$6B in quarterly H20 revenue through 2H 2025 and stabilising into 2026. They expect:

• EPS accretion of 5–7% in FY26–27

• China to make up 14% of global AI accelerator TAM in 2025, falling to 5–10% longer term

• Multiple expansion to 37x FY27 EPS of $5.87, still within historical 25–56x range

BofA’s view: China’s return isn’t just symbolic, it’s cashflow real and margin rich.

🌐 Trump’s Playbook: Tariffs, Truce, and GPU Diplomacy

Trade policy is colliding with silicon strategy. Trump’s team just threatened 30% tariffs on EU and Mexico while relaxing GPU restrictions for Nvidia and AMD. This is pure leverage, the U.S. wants rare-earth mineral exports, and tech companies are the new chessboard.

Jensen Huang just confirmed on CCTV that H20 shipments will resume immediately. Nvidia will also debut the RTX PRO in Beijing this week, built to fall under U.S. export thresholds. Huang made it clear: these chips aren’t military-grade, and the U.S. has ultimate control.

🧠 AI Chip Snapback: China Gets Its Silicon

• Nvidia to resume H20 shipments

• AMD to ship MI308 accelerators

• Pixelworks, Wolfspeed, Super Micro, TSMC, and Broadcom all surged on the news

Hang Seng Tech Index rose 2.2%, Beijing Sinnet jumped 8.4%, and Nasdaq futures spiked post-announcement. The supply chain just unclogged, and Nvidia’s pipeline is at the front.

📰 Macro Check: Nvidia Decouples From Volatility

Despite the Dow dropping 258 points on tariff fears, the Nasdaq surged and the S&P held flat. Nvidia’s rally wasn’t sympathy, it was leadership.

CPI showed signs of early tariff impact, but inflation remains subdued for now. Core categories like apparel, household goods, and recreational items are picking up, but wages are still lagging.

Seema Shah warned that the true inflationary bite is delayed: “Tariffs are gradually permeating core goods prices.” CIBC’s Katherine Judge added: “Stockpiled inventory is masking the hit, but that shield will fade.”

🧭 5 Key Things I’m Watching

1. All-In Summit Remarks: Will Trump or Jensen confirm full clearance?

2. $175 Close: A close above $175 brings $180 into view fast.

3. Options Gamma: $180 call open interest could magnetise price this week.

4. RTX PRO Launch: Any major buyer announcements?

5. DeepSeek & Tencent Moves: If they confirm H20 orders, the flow intensifies.

🎯 How I’m Trading It

• Stock: Long from $165, looking for $190 near term.

• Options: $170/$180 July call spread, or August $160 puts sold for premium.

• Protection: $160 puts to hedge into Trump’s speech and macro risk events.

📍 Conclusion: $5B per Quarter Is Back in Play

🇨🇳 Nvidia just re-secured the China channel, and the market knows it. A fresh $1.4M long-dated call bet signals big money thinks this run is just getting started. With EPS upside, geopolitical narrative reversal, and institutional flow all aligning, this is no longer just a breakout. It’s a rerating event.

$NVDA over $1T larger than $AAPL? Believe it. The AI throne is back in play!

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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