To The Moon

My Affair.

My affair with $MP Materials Corp.(MP)$ goes all the way back to 9 Dec 2020.

I was reading up on rare earth elements (REE) and towards the end of the write-up, it mentioned about Materials Corp and its listing via SPAC Fortress Value Acquisition Corp. (FVAC) 2 weeks earlier on 18 Nov 2020.

The purchase price was $26.10 per share.

Good Times.

The initial periods after acquisition were exhilarating, fueled by optimism about the rare earth sector’s critical role in the green energy transition and the United States’ strategic interests in securing supply chains.

As MP Materials delivered strong earnings and expansion plans, my confidence soared, especially as the stock captured widespread attention from both retail and institutional investors.

When MP peaked on 01 Apr 2022 at $56.54 per share (see above), I recalled telling myself this is a keeper for long-term growth.

Bad Times.

However, the euphoria wave gradually gave way to frustration as the stock’s performance became increasingly volatile.

Despite promising developments, global market uncertainties, fluctuating commodity prices, and changing political sentiments around trade all contributed to unpredictable swings.

Disappointment grew deeper during the dark periods, from March 2023 onwards (see above), when MP fell below my purchase price, for the very first time and continued to trend lower.

When it bottomed at $11.14 on 9 Aug 2024, I lost -59% of my investment. I kept telling myself, its “only” paper-loss as long as I don’t sell out. Ha, ha.

Honestly, it never crossed my mind to cut my losses and sell at a loss, all these times.

Looking Back.

In retrospect. I am glad I held out and I even wrote about it on 24 Jun 2025. Click here ! to read !

At the height of the trade war standoff between US-China, MP stock price came roaring back as the rare earth supply bottleneck intensified.

China’s delayed approval for shipment of REE to US, held Trump administration hostage.

My parting comment for the post was “Are you enticed by the possible +33.25% upside ride / potential profits back to the top ?“

Seventeen Days later.

On 11 July 2025, I had another post on MP materials again. Click here ! to read.

It was another piece of good news about MP materials.

US after being held hostage ‘briefly’ by China has decided to invest in MP materials and in the process changed the company into a ‘quasi’ government entity, where US Department of Defense (DoD) has a 15% stake in the company.

This is definitely a ‘first’ in US government history and for the first time, the citation of ‘national security’ is valid.

Unlike all the mambo-jumbo about Tik Tok being a “national security threat” and other incidences.

Five Days later.

On the day when US’s headline inflation for June 2025 rose (again) for the 2nd month in a row and both S&P 500 and Dow Jones fell, MP materials continued its ascension.

This time it was because $Apple(AAPL)$ and miner MP Materials are joining forces in a $500 million deal to develop a rare earth magnets recycling facility, that will reinforce the iPhone maker’s US supply chain.

Rare earth magnets are key components used in consumer electronics, cars and renewable energy systems.

The agreement forms part of Apple’s $500 billion pledge to onshore production.

Valuation - Long Term.

On Tue, 15 Jul 2025 for the briefest of moment, MP set a new peak price of $62.84 at 10:45am, after news broke about its partnership with Apple Inc.

MP’s stock price surge (I believe) is more than its collaboration with Apple Inc on recycling.

It represents market’s revised &renewed valuation of this mining company.

• Recent collaborations strengthen MP’s market position as the only integrated US rare earths producer.

• The convergence of guaranteed government contracts and major commercial partnerships with Apple can result in (a) predictable cash flow, (b) reduced dependency on spot market fluctuations, and (c) accelerated technology investment.

• MP Materials also solidifies its importance in US drive for technological and supply chain sovereignty.

Technical Analysis (TA).

Moving Averages.

• The 20-day ($35.57), 50-day ($27.91), and 200-day ($22.88) simple moving averages are well below the current price.

• This indicates a powerful upward trend and strong technical support.

• The current price far above these averages is evidence of a sharp breakout.

• This often signals that buyers are firmly in control.

Relative Strength Index (RSI).

• On 15 Jul 2025, the RSI(14) was 77.24, signaling an overbought condition.

• Spikes like the one seen after the DoD and AAPL news have pushed RSI higher.

• Suggesting a risk of (1) a short-term pullback or (2) consolidation even amid longer-term bullish sentiment.

Support and Resistance.

• Key support levels are around $51.30 (pivot point 1st support) with the 20-day moving average also acting as deeper support.

• Immediate resistance is $63.10 (pivot point 1st Resistance Point) and $67.98 (pivot point 2nd Resistance Point).

With all the history and facts laid out before you, is it time to buy OR wait for clearer signs ? I am tempted to take a bit of profits soon !

Remember to check out my Monday & Tuesday posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks.

Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks.

• INTC bet on UMC and not TSM. Should U ? Fri, 18 July. Picked post.

• Own these 3 Quantum stocks, like Buffett ? Thu, 17 July. Picked post.

• If CPI inflation jumps, US Market tumbles ? Tue, 15 July. Picked post.

• Sell TSLA, F, STLA & GM with EV Tax credit ending ? Tue, 15 July. Picked post.

• TSLA is Magnificent 7 weakest link ! Sell ? Mon, 14 July. Picked post.

• Do you think there will be more companies joining the “collaboration” bandwagon ?

• Do you think there are more upsides to MP Material stock price ascension ?

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