To The Moon

🌟🌟🌟AMD and SMCI stumble.  Is Nvidia the last chip standing?  Earnings season in chipland has turned into a battlefield strewn with broken expectations and bruised valuations.  AMD and SMCI, once the darlings of the AI boom, have both missed earnings, triggering sharp selloffs and investor soul searching.

AMD $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$  missed by a cent but the real damage came from AI revenue declines due to US export restrictions to China.  The MI300 sales vanished, margins shrank and the stock plunged over 8.7%, breaking below USD 160.

SMCI $SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$  fell even harder, down 15% after missing both revenue and profit estimates.  Guidance was weak, margins shrank to 9.5% and investors were left wondering if the AI server boom had hit a wall.

Oversold or Avoid?

Let's be honest.  These are not just dips.  They are gut punches. 

AMD :  Oversold with a Pulse

Despite the miss, AMD posted record revenue of USD 7.7 billion and its MI400 series is ramping up. 

Analysts still see 44% upside with a Target Price of USD 154.55.

The pain is real but long term AI growth and export resumption could revive sentiment.

Verdict: Oversold but not broken.  But August to October period tends to be a rough patch historically.

SMCI : Caution Advised

SMCI's guidance disappointed and margin pressure may persist amid rising competition from Dell and HPE.

While full year revenue guidance is strong (USD 33 billion) near term execution risks are high.

Verdict : Avoid for now.  Let the dust settle and margins stabilise.

Is Nvidia the Last Chip Worth Betting On?

In a sea of stumbles, Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA)$  remains the lighthouse.

Nvidia dominates AI data center chips with a 90%+ market share.

Blackwell architecture is ramping faster than any prior launch. 

CUDA software creates sticky ecosystems as customers face switching costs. 

Analysts are shouting  "Buy " with price targets up to 50% above current levels. 

Wall Street remains overwhelmingly bullish, citing Nvidia 's unmatched product roadmap and AI leadership. 

The Emotional Undercurrent

This isn't just about earnings.  It is about belief.  AMD and SMCI gave us hope, then disappointment.  Nvidia?  It still feels like conviction to me. 

Concluding Thoughts 

This earnings season has been a brutal reminder that even the most promising tech stories can falter when reality fails to meet the narrative.  AMD and SMCI showed us how fragile momentum can be.  But Nvidia?  It is not just riding the AI wave, it is shaping it. 

If you are going to bet on chips in a market that punishes imperfection, bet on  the one that is rewriting the rules.  Nvidia is still the crown jewel.  Its dominance in AI chips and software makes it a stock that I would buy and hold long term. 

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