To The Moon

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $Intel(INTC)$ I’m watching history unfold in real time. Last night’s move is unprecedented: Nvidia and AMD agreed to hand over 15% of revenue from China chip sales to the U.S. in exchange for lifting export controls. That explains why the Commerce Department quietly resumed issuing H20 export licenses on Friday; it happened two days after Jensen Huang met President Trump.

💥📜 From Export Ban Shock to $25B China Revenue Recovery

In April, the U.S. government told Nvidia that H20-class parts required licenses for China and that this requirement would remain indefinitely. Nvidia then guided for up to ~$5.5B in Q1 FY26 charges tied to H20 inventory, purchase commitments, and reserves. This was the point of maximum pressure.

Under the new deal, Nvidia is expected to ship ~1.5M H20 chips to China in 2025. At $12,000–$13,000 per chip, that’s ~$25B in revenue. The 15% remittance: ~$3.8B is far less damaging than the $50B multi-year revenue loss Huang previously warned about.

🌏📦 China AI Market Power Shift: Nvidia’s Dominance at Stake

In 2024, orders for H20 chips from ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent exceeded $16B, with over 1M units shipped. Estimated H20 revenue in China was ~$12B, accounting for roughly 70.6% of Nvidia’s China revenue. Nvidia already controls 92% of the global datacenter GPU market, with AMD at ~4% and the rest split across Huawei, Cerebras, Groq, and Intel. Restricting Nvidia from China impacts not only U.S.–China relations but the global AI supply chain itself.

⚖️🤖 AI Sovereignty and the H20 Geopolitical Battleground

CEO Jensen Huang calls Nvidia a “full-stack accelerated computing platform,” and the H20, while built to comply with U.S. export laws, is now at the center of China’s AI self-sufficiency strategy. Beijing’s criticism that the H20 is neither cutting-edge nor environmentally optimal signals an accelerated push for domestic AI chips. This could force Nvidia to fast-track R&D or adjust long-term China revenue projections, especially given AI datacenter demand has been its growth engine.

🏛️🤝 The New Trade War Playbook: Corporate Deals as Policy

I’m seeing a pattern emerge: corporate “deals” are replacing blanket policy. Apple’s response to a 25% iPhone tariff threat was a $600B U.S. manufacturing pledge over four years. Intel’s CEO is already set for White House talks after Trump called for his resignation over alleged China ties. Amazon, Meta, Tesla, and Microsoft: with nearly half their sales overseas, are likely next in line for revenue-share or investment-for-access deals.

📈💹 Nvidia Technicals: Bullish Trend with Pre-Earnings Dip Risk

I’m breaking down the charts in full. On the weekly, NVDA trades above its 13, 21, and 55 EMA stacks with strong separation from the 200 SMA. Price rides the upper Keltner band as Bollinger Bands widen, a volatility expansion signal. Volume is elevated, consistent with prior institutional accumulation phases.

On the 4H, compression at the top Keltner channel with EMA alignment remains bullish, but rejection in the $183–$186 zone hints at pre-earnings seller activity. My 5-day swing model shows:

• Risk Trigger: 193.03

• Lower Band: 172.37 (87.13% hold rate over 101 days)

• Overall Success Rate: 82.5% over 120 days

Analyst sentiment is split: Goldman Sachs has a Buy and $210 PT on AI adoption and GPU scarcity; Morgan Stanley is Equal-Weight, citing geopolitical valuation risk. Hedge fund flow is leaning bullish, with $3.2M in $NVDA 164P 19Sep25 sold-to-open last week, signalling confidence above $168.

If $183.30 clears with volume, momentum algos could push NVDA toward $192 into earnings. My base case is consolidation in $175–$183 into 27Aug25, giving RSI time to reset before an earnings-driven expansion.

🚀🔑 Strategic Takeaway: Monetising Access Is the New Trade Policy

The trade war has shifted from blanket restrictions to monetised access deals. Nvidia’s 15%-for-access framework turns a geopolitical liability into a predictable cost of doing business, potentially restoring billions in China revenue without political stalemate. Other megacaps will move quickly to lock in terms; smaller firms without leverage will face blanket tariffs.

With export licenses reinstated, unmatched index weight, and a technical structure respecting every key support, Nvidia is positioned for further upside. But the probability map still includes a controlled pre-earnings dip toward $175–$173 before trend resumption.

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