Will LCID Escape Its Penny Stock Status?

JC888
08-12

EV - Where We Are.

The hype over electric vehicle (EV) seemed to have blown over.

Investing in them seems like a foolish move, given that for the remaining - 3 years, 5 months and 10 days (as of 10 Aug 2025) - Trump will still demand US oil producers to continue to drill, baby, drill.

After coming across a post on $Lucid Group Inc(LCID)$, I have a different point of view. Hear me out ?

Q2 2025 Earnings.

A new SEC filing shows LCID’s revenue from Saudi Arabia rose sharply in Q2 2025, while earnings from Canada and Europe remained low.

The EV maker posted revenue of $259.4 million in the 3 months to 30 Jun 2025, vs $235.0 million in Q1 2025, vs $200.6 million YoY.

This means up by +10.38% QoQ and +29.31% YoY, respectively. Not too shabby, indeed.

In terms of deliverables, LCID delivered 3,309 vehicles globally during the quarter, up from 3,109 in Q1 2025 and 2,173 in Q2 2024.

Ok, LCID does not break down deliveries by market, but its quarterly revenue by geography offers the clearest available proxy for where its vehicles are going.

Revenue from the US totaled $212.7 million for Q2 2025, or 82.0% of total revenue.

  • Based on the average price of LCID’s Air sedan, at least 2,800 EVs were delivered in the US.

  • This makes up about 84% of global volume.

Revenue by Geographical area.

This was how revenue tallied up by geographical area in Q1 2025. (see below)

Revenue by geographical area - Q1 2025

North America as a whole brought in $218.4 million.

  • Canadian revenue contributing an estimated $5.7 million, or 2.2% of total revenue.

Revenue by geographical area - Q2 2025

Things changed quickly in the 3 months post Q1 2025 results. (see above)

Overall, revenue from North America has fallen.

However, Canadian contribution rose by +$1.2 million, suggesting deliveries has risen and is still below 90 units in the April-June period.

Rise of Middle East?

Middle East revenue rose to $36.6 million in Q2 2025, up sharply from $7.8M in Q1 2025.

Of that $36.6 million:

  • $35.9 million came from Saudi Arabia.

  • $0.7 million from the UAE, where deliveries began in late 2024.

Reviewing Middle East’s Q1 2025 revenue:

  • Saudi Arabia generated $7.5 million.

  • UAE generated $0.3 million.

  • Q2 numbers registered growth, with less than 100 EVs delivered to Saudi Arabia and a few to the UAE

Europe’s Share.

The “Other international” segment, that represents LCID’s European markets, has slightly increased by $100,000 to $4.4 million.

EU’s share of revenue has held steady between $4.3 million & $4.5 million for 3 consecutive quarters.

Implying total deliveries across Germany, Switzerland, the Netherlands and Norway remained below 50 units in Q2 2025.

Revenue Evolution by Region QoQ.

Looking at 2025 revenue contribution from the different geographical regions:

Conclusions:

The comparison clearly shows increased EV deliveries in Saudi Arabia while US, LCID’s home market posted a sequential decline in revenue of about -3.0% QoQ.

Saudi Arabia’s revenue for H1 2025 totals $43.4 million, compared with $194.1 million in FY 2024 and $59.0 million in FY 2023.

Financial Backer.

Lucid is backed by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, that owns a stake of over 60% in the company and has committed to purchasing up to 100,000 EVs over a 10-year period.

The company is also upgrading its assembly plant in King Abdullah Economic City from semi-knocked-down (SKD) to full production.

Going Back to 2024 and 2023.

LCID Year 2024 total revenue by Region

Globally, Lucid’s full-year 2024 revenue stood at $807.8 million,. (see above)

This can be broken down to :

  • North America - $598.0 million.

  • Saudi Arabia - $194.1 million.

  • Other international markets - $15.8 million.

LCID Year 2023 total revenue by Region

Backtracking even further to 2023 (see above), when LCID’s future then was even more “bleak”.

2023 Revenue breakdown was:

  • North America - $522.0 million.

  • Saudi Arabia - $59 million.

  • Other international markets - $14.3 million.

And if we tally up revenue growth over the 3-year period, while 2025 still a work-in-progress.

This is what we learnt:

North America.

  • Total revenue grew from $522 million (2023) > $598 million (2024) > $431.1 million (H1 2025).

  • Comparing half year results, growth has increased by +14.56% (2023 - 2024) and +44.21% (2024 - 2025).

Middle East.

  • Total revenue grew from $59 million (2023) > $194.1 million (2024) > $44.4 (H1 2025).

  • Comparing half year results, growth has increased by +229% (2023 - 2024) and fell by -45.45% (2024 - 2025)

Other international market.

  • Total revenue grew from $14.3 million (2023) > $15.8 million (2024) > $8.7 million (H1 2025).

  • Comparing half year results, growth has increased by +10.49% (2023 -2024) and dipped marginally by -10.13% (2024 - 2025).

Was it sobering to learn that North American is still LCID’s most “stable” market, followed by Other international market ?

In Q2 2025, Middle East revenue looked the most promising. When compared to 2024, sales need to grow a lot in H2 2025 to finish the year strong.

Analyst’s Assessment.

In a research note on Wed, 6 Aug 2025, $Bank of America(BAC)$, Analyst, John Murphy said

  • LCID’s revenue of $259 million fell short of (a) the bank’s estimate of $267 million and (b) Wall Street’s consensus forecast of $262 million.

  • As a result, he re-affirmed LCID’s ‘Underperform’ rating, with a price target of $1.00 per share.

CEO’s Note:

At the same time, LCID’s interim chief executive Marc Winterhoff told CNBC that the company has sufficient liquidity to operate through H2 2026.

He did indicate that LCID may seek additional funding if necessary.

Future Development.

On 29 Jul 2025, LCID announced a multi-year agreement with American-French actor Timothée Chalamet to become LCID’s first-ever global brand ambassador.

The EV maker plans to expand brand awareness by partnering not only with Chalamet but also with (a) world-class athletes, (b) influential cultural figures, and (c) leading brands and organizations in sports and culture, eventually.

Chalamet would star in a major global campaign for LCID’s mid range Gravity SUV in “early Autumn”, coinciding with Gravity’s upcoming launch in EU.

LCID has recently, begun deliveries of its “new” entry level EVs in the US, Canada, Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi.

Mass Market Mission.

Mr Winterhoff has added that the multi-year partnership with Timothée is designed to anchor the LCID brand, in popular culture ahead of its entry into the mass market.

The plan is to make a cost-effective EV that can attract more customers.

It’s a strategy that $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ has adopted.

So far, this seemed to have thrown the Chinese luxury EV maker a lifeline in 2025.

  • In late September 2024, NIO delivered its first mid range (cost) EV Onvo, that was launched officially on 15 May 2024.

  • Next, NIO launched a cost-effective, budget EV Firefly in April 2025 and began delivery in the same month.

If NIO is able to breakeven by end 2025, then this theory has been proven to work in a still-weak Chinese economy and extremely competitive EV market.

Both US economy and market are expected to get weaker progressively as Trump’s reciprocal tariffs’ effect take root from 07 Aug 2025 onwards.

LCID should pivot and look for growth in other countries.

Stock Price Movement.

  • YTD, LCID has fallen by -29.70% (as of 8 Aug 2025 closing).

  • Its YTD low stands at $2.03 per share, reached on 12 Mar 2025 & 01 Jul 2025.

  • Its YTD high was $3.48, reached on 18 Feb 2025.

News Flash - Latest !

This is a last minute addition to my post upon composition completion.

For investors who are considering adding LCID to your holdings, you will need to be aware of the followings.

On 09 Aug 2025, it was reported that LCID’s 5th largest shareholder, Geode Capital Management has disclosed ownership of 22.64 million LCID shares (as of 30 Jun 2025), up 1.55 million shares, or +7.4%, from the 21.09 million reported on 31 Mar 2025. This is ‘good’ news for institution investors have exhibited confidence in the EV maker.

However, on 10 Aug 2025, it was reported that the “1-for-10” reverse-stock split submitted by LCID and subjected to a vote on 18 Aug 2025 - will reduce the number of shares available, after the exercise has taken place.

The aim to bump up stock price so as to cater to possible institution investors purchase is a slippery slope. There have been too many stories where after reverse split, the stock tanked.

With LCID’s stock price near its 2025 low and several upcoming events ahead, how likely is it that LCID can grow its sales in both Middle East and EU?

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  • Do you think LCID will be able to grow its Middle East market share successfully ?

  • Do you think clean energy, hence EV will remain a challenge while Trump is in office ?

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