To The Moon

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Snowflake(SNOW)$ $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ I believe this is the most pivotal trading week of Q3, where AI earnings collide with Powell’s policy pivot and stretched valuations, and I’m fully convinced the winners will be those who position before the volatility wave breaks.

Friday’s rally confirmed the market’s mood.

🟢 $SPX +96 pts (+1.5%)

🟢 $DJI +846 pts (+1.8%)

🟢 $NQ +396 pts (+1.8%)

I’m extremely confident that Powell’s Jackson Hole hint at a September cut flipped sentiment back into greed. The Fear & Greed Index closed at 61, up from 55 the prior day. That’s not just a number, it’s a psychological reset. When combined with Friday’s heatmap: NVDA +1.66%, GOOGL +3.14%, AMZN +3.10%, TSLA +6.25%, META +2.11% it shows how concentrated leadership is driving the indices to all-time highs.

Earnings Inferno Midweek 🔥

I’m unequivocally focused on Wednesday. Nvidia ($NVDA), CrowdStrike ($CRWD), Snowflake ($SNOW), HP ($HPQ), Abercrombie ($ANF), and Kohl’s ($KSS) all report. Nvidia’s 2pm ET call is the fulcrum. With $AMD, $TSM, $MU, and $FN trading directionally off Nvidia, one surprise will ripple through the entire semiconductor complex.

I’m tactically positioned around NVDA’s $320–325 wedge support and $353 Fib resistance. If NVDA beats and guides higher, I see momentum spreading into suppliers, validating the $741 long-term Fib extension. If it misses, breadth weakness becomes fragility, and I’d expect a liquidity flush across semis.

Powell, Policy and PCE 📊

I’m watching macro risk just as closely. Durable goods (Tue), Case-Shiller housing (Tue), and consumer confidence (Tue) lead into jobless claims and GDP revision (Thu). Wednesday adds Pending Home Sales, which will be closely watched given the housing affordability squeeze. Thursday also includes Corporate Profits, a broad signal on margin resilience across industries. But the main event is Friday’s core PCE at 8:30am. Consensus sits at 2.9% YoY, after 2.8% in June. A hot print north of 3% would undermine Powell’s cut narrative and flip greed into fear. That’s my invalidation trigger: SPX below 5,415 and NVDA below 310.

Options Flow and Volatility Signals ⚡

Friday’s SPX net drift was telling: $121M in call premium built steadily all day, while puts stayed flat at $4.39M. I’m confident this wasn’t hedging, it was directional conviction. VIX ETP inflows have surged past $2.5B, and BofA’s data shows VIX call premiums sitting in the 90th percentile relative to SPX puts. Traders are buying tail risk, but I’m reading it as more confirmation that upside remains the dominant positioning.

Watchlist Beyond the Obvious 👀

I’m not just staring at $NVDA.

• Monday: PDD earnings, VMware Explore 2025 (Broadcom keynote), JNJ and SPGI ex-div.

• Tuesday: $BMO, $MDB ($356.70 support, $412.10 breakout), $OKTA, $BNS, Jefferies Semi Summit ($ASML, $NXPI, $TSEM), durable goods, Case-Shiller housing, consumer confidence.

• Wednesday: $NVDA, $CRWD, $SNOW, $HPQ, $ANF, $KSS earnings, $RKLB, $SOFI, $AFRM join MSCI ACWI, 50% tariffs on Indian imports, Pending Home Sales.

• Thursday: $DELL, $MRVL, $ADSK, $DG, $BBY, $LI earnings, Intel CFO at Deutsche Bank Tech Conference, jobless claims, GDP revision, Corporate Profits.

• Friday: $BABA earnings ($86.20 support, $102.40 Fib extension), core PCE at 8:30am, Beyond Inc. ($BYON) renames to Bed Bath & Beyond ($BBBY), DraftKings ($DKNG) and Flutter ($FLUT) ride college football kickoff.

I’m deliberately allocating attention here because while most traders are fixated on Powell’s cut probability or NVDA’s EPS headline, the edge lies in the secondary reactions: how $MU or $TSM absorb Nvidia’s print, how $BABA reacts to PCE inflation, and how $DKNG rides college football volume.

Trade Structuring 💡

I’m tactically favouring slightly OTM NVDA calls expiring mid-September, scaling in pre-earnings to balance IV crush risk. On $MDB, I’d take equity exposure into breakout levels. On indices, I’d sell short-dated SPX puts while trimming upside exposure after NVDA if momentum fades. For $BABA, I’d build equity exposure into earnings with stops at $85.

Why This Week Matters 🌍

I’m deeply focused on how this week’s convergence: AI leadership, Powell’s pivot, PCE inflation, and tariffs on India illustrates the fragility of a liquidity-driven market. This isn’t just about trading one ticker. It’s about recognising how technology concentration, geopolitical tariffs, and policy signals create asymmetric opportunities. The majority will be distracted by headlines, but I’m certain the real money will be made by watching breadth, option drift, and supplier correlation risk.

🔍 Nvidia Earnings: Leap or Trap?

Nvidia’s Q2 print on 27Aug25 will be decisive for both AI and market leadership. Demand indicators have been accelerating: advanced packaging supply chains, PCB shipments, and server demand have all been revised sharply higher in recent weeks. This suggests earnings will again exceed consensus, extending Nvidia’s streak of outperformance.

Guidance will be critical. I expect management to outline stronger-than-expected visibility into the GB200 and GB300 ramp, which underpins hyperscaler adoption into 2025. The Rubin series, now entering early mass production phases, reinforces Nvidia’s forward TAM expansion and cements the company’s status as a full-stack ecosystem provider. Margins are expected to remain in the mid-70s, with recurring software contributions insulating profitability against near-term cost pressures.

Technically, the stock is coiled. Short-term charts show support holding near $172 with resistance at $184, and the weekly structure caps at $190. I expect Nvidia to close within a $182–$190 range after earnings, with a breakout to $200 possible if guidance materially exceeds expectations. A miss or cautious outlook could push shares back to $172, which I see as the near-term downside anchor.

The balance of evidence supports a leap. The supply chain data, margin resilience, and product roadmap momentum all argue that Nvidia will deliver results that justify its premium multiple. The trap risk comes later: post-earnings profit-taking into Labor Day, compounded by macro uncertainty as the Fed heads into its 17Sept rate announcement.

For this event, Nvidia isn’t just likely to leap; it’s the defining catalyst that will redraw the risk map for every portfolio heading into September.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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