To The Moon

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Broadcom(AVGO)$ $Micron Technology(MU)$ 

🚨 Strategic Inflection Point

I am fully convinced that Nvidia’s 3.22% drop to $169.97 is not just another dip; it is the epicenter of a seismic risk-off rotation tearing through the Magnificent 7 and semiconductors. Top flow has flipped bearish, supply chain uncertainty lingers, and September, the cruelest month in 70 years of equity history, has arrived. This is not noise; it is the battleground defining the market’s next move.

📊 Market Snapshot

The Magnificent 7 all bled red to start the week: Tesla −1.83%, Meta −1.89%, Amazon −2.36%, Alphabet −2.22%, Microsoft −1.81%, Apple −1.80%. Nvidia led the carnage, down −3.22%. Semiconductors were in full retreat with AMD −2.8%, Micron −3.1%, Qualcomm −2.5%, and the SOXX index −2.4%. The broader market wasn’t immune; the Nasdaq shed −1.9%, and the VIX spiked to 17.8, confirming rising fear. $15M+ in single-leg, <=90DTE calls were bought on $VIX today compared to just $125k in puts. Heavy downside risk protection…or something more?! 👀

💸 Flow Sentiment

Nvidia dominated options flow today, and the tide was decisively bearish. Options net drift flipped negative, with puts crossing calls across Mag 7 names. Net GEX contracted sharply, reflecting dealer hedging unwinds. DEX showed institutions leaning defensive, with $4.2B in notional put buying last week. Retail activity was muted; hedge funds and algorithms drove the rout.

📰 Catalysts Driving the Storm

• Supply clarity: Nvidia publicly shut down “sold-out” rumors, affirming ample H100/H200 supply and zero impact from H20 on Blackwell or H100/H200 production. Yet whispers of overcapacity persist, unnerving investors.

• Geopolitical headwinds: U.S. restrictions forced Nvidia to halt H20 production for China, blocking ~$2.5B in Q1 revenue. CEO Jensen Huang has framed a $50B China TAM, but regulatory shadows still loom over Blackwell.

• Hedge fund repositioning: Leading funds cut U.S. large-cap exposure by 15% since July, pivoting toward Chinese tech amid tariff noise, with Nvidia a prime trim target.

• Macro turbulence: Fed Governor Waller reaffirmed rate cuts are likely to begin in September, but the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.69%. Gold surged to a record $2,625/oz, the dollar index (DXY) slipped −0.3%, and Friday’s jobs report now looms as the volatility trigger.

📉 Technicals & Cycles

 • Key levels: $165.50 is the line in the sand. A break below opens downside momentum to $147, aligning with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from June lows.

• Moving averages: NVDA slipped below its 50-day MA ($171) for the first time since May, sliding 4% to ~$167 in a four-day, −7% pullback that erased $340B in market value. Next supports are $160, then $145. Despite the selloff, NVDA is still +78% off its April lows and remains the world’s largest chipmaker at $4.1T market cap.

• Indicators: Daily RSI sits at 54, trending lower, while MACD signals bearish divergence. VWAP rejection at $172 reinforces downside pressure.

• Compression: 4H and 30m Keltner/Bollinger bands confirm a bearish resolution; momentum bias remains lower.

• Cycle roadmap: Nvidia’s 2-year resets have historically delivered 100%+ gains post-drawdowns, but interim corrections average −25% to −40%. The next generational buy zone is April/May 2026.

📆 Seasonal Gravity

September’s track record is brutal, with equities averaging −1.1% returns and nine of the 40 worst months since 1950. Hedge fund de-risking, Fed uncertainty, and tariff risks compound the pressure this year. The S&P 500’s 10% YTD gain hangs by a thread as volatility rises.

💡 Strategic Verdict

This isn’t a dip to blindly buy; it is a structural unwind where flows, macro, geopolitics, and seasonality align. Short-term traders can ride momentum under $165.50, targeting $147–150. Long-term conviction players wait for that zone or the April/May 2026 reset for optimal entry. Cash is and forever will be king in this storm; preserve capital, stay nimble, and strike when the dust settles.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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