To The Moon

$Figma(FIG)$ $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$ 🤺 I’m fully dialed into $FIG this week; we get Figma’s first earnings report as a public company on 03Sep25 after the close. This is the market’s first real chance to decide whether the IPO premium still stands or whether gravity tightens its grip.

📊 Technical Setup & Fibonacci Map

I’m framing the move with Fibonacci levels. Current price is hovering near the 1.236 Fib at $70.28; good earnings can magnet price back to the 1.000 at $84.15, then 0.786 $96.74 and 0.618 $106.61. A miss risks a slide to the 1.414 at $59.81. On the 2-hour, FIG trades below the POC $70.50 and the ribbon $70.93; whale accumulation is only 4.3%, up marginally from 3.87%, which says institutions are largely on the sidelines while retail is in control. MACD and RSI are curling up; without institutional demand that’s insufficient to flip trend.

🕯️ Candle & Pressure Signals

On 29Aug the 2-hour Yellow Candle printed with a high at $69.70 and a low at $69.00; Trend Expert flagged a Red Candle the same session; the Yellow Candle started at 3.06%. Short-term trend remains down; medium and long-term trends are also down. The model shows no obvious short-term support; short-term pressure sits at $78.59. Candlestick scan shows 0 long signals and 0 short signals in the past 30 days. On the 4H chart price is riding the lower Bollinger band; EMA13 sits beneath EMA21, which confirms momentum risk.

📌 Support & Resistance Levels

• Support: 1.414 $59.81

• Resistance ladder: 1.236 $70.28, POC $70.50, ribbon $70.93, 1.000 $84.15, 0.786 $96.74, 0.618 $106.61

⚖️ Valuation Context

Figma sits at roughly 30x EV/NTM revenue; that places it beside NET and CRWD and well below PLTR at 77x, while still richer than SNOW at 16x, SHOP at 15x, RBRK, GWRE, ZS at 14x, and NOW at 13x. Valuation is still the swing factor.

📈 Street Positioning

Nine analysts on record show 78% Hold, 11% Buy, 11% Strong Buy, 0% Sell. Morgan Stanley is Hold with an $80 target and a $26B TAM framework; JPMorgan is Hold with a $65 target; William Blair is Outperform at $96; Wolfe stays sector perform; RBC is Hold with a $75 target.

🤖 AI Product Stack & Risks

Figma’s AI suite includes Make, FigJam AI, Dev Mode MCP Server, Sites, Buzz, and Draw. The upside is higher productivity and deeper platform stickiness across designers, developers, and PMs; the risks are real.

1. Third-party model dependency on providers like OpenAI and Anthropic.

2. Legal and IP boundaries around generated content remain unclear.

3. Competitive threat as Canva, Notion, and Framer narrow the moat with similar features.

📝 Options Market & Strategy

The options market prices a move of about ±10.36% into Friday; a range of $59.47 to $73.22. Put open interest is heavier than calls at 13,449 versus 11,175; $60 puts hold notable open interest into the week. I’m considering a long straddle using the $65C and $65P expiring 05Sep; combined cost near $7.30; upside breakeven about $72.30; downside breakeven about $57.70.

🔎 Short Interest & Flow

Open short interest has ranged from 11.93M to 12.31M shares into the print; the semi-monthly update on 15Aug showed 9.54M; short % peaked at 24.15%; short ratio 15.4%; days to cover near 1.0. Daily tape on 02Sep shows NASDAQ short 278.5k and NYSE short 957.6k; total short volume 1.24M with 8.03M total volume. Bears remain active.

📅 Earnings Calendar & Peer Read-Through

Figma reports after the close on Wed, 03Sep25 alongside CRM, HPE, GTLB, and PD. Cross-currents across SaaS and collaboration names can amplify FIG’s post-print reaction.

📉 IPO Journey & Drawdown Reality

Figma priced its IPO at $33 on 31Jul25, opened at $85, closed day one at $115.50, and spiked to an intraday high of $142.92; the most valuable U.S. software IPO since 2021. The stock is down about 42% from the peak and now sits around the mid-sixties, yet early allocations via Robinhood’s IPO access are still green. Adobe’s abandoned $20B acquisition in 2022 after antitrust pressure remains a reminder of strategic value and the risk of paying any price.

📌 What I Need to See to Flip Constructive

Revenue growth at or above 40%, visible gross-margin discipline, early AI monetisation signals that offset seat-based pricing risk, and guidance that reins in the valuation debate. Nail these and $84.15 opens; miss them and $59.81 is on the table.

📜 Narrative: From Hype to Proof

I’m treating this print as a referendum on trust, not just a set of numbers. If Figma validates growth durability and margins, the premium can endure; if not, we shift from story to strict cash-flow reality.

👉 With $FIG priced for a ±10% swing and whales sitting on the sidelines at just 4.3% accumulation, do you see this earnings as the catalyst that launches FIG back toward $84.15 or the trigger that drags it down to $59.81?

📢 Don’t miss out! Like, Repost and Follow me for exclusive setups, cutting-edge trends, and insights that move markets 🚀📈 I’m obsessed with hunting down the next big movers and sharing strategies that crush it. Let’s outsmart the market and stack those gains together! 🍀

Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

@Tiger_comments @TigerPM @TigerWire @TigerPicks @TigerObserver @TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @1PC