To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Oracle(ORCL)$ I’m positioning for a data-driven volatility burst as CPI drops hours after the ECB, Apple unveils iPhone 17, and $TSLA prints $44M in net call buying into a $353 inflection.

📊 Macro catalysts I’m trading around

Tuesday 09Sep25: Apple’s iPhone 17 event. Hardware reveals often reset supplier sentiment and index microstructure; any ASP uplift or AI edge will flow through to $AAPL weight in $QQQ.

Wednesday 10Sep25: US PPI at 8:30 a.m. ET; the first inflation read of the week.

Thursday 11Sep25: US CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET, Jobless Claims at 8:30 a.m. ET, plus the ECB decision and press conference earlier in the morning.

Friday 12Sep25: UMich Sentiment and Inflation Expectations at 10:00 a.m. ET.

Treasury auctions add fuel: 3-Year Tuesday, 10-Year Wednesday, 30-Year Thursday, alongside regular bills. I’m expecting duration-sensitive factor whipsaws around the 10-Year; weak demand would pressure long end yields and compress multiples in high-duration tech.

🏗 Labour, energy, and positioning

ADP printed 54k for August, well under 65k consensus and far below July’s 106k. That cools the cyclical heat; it also sets a lower bar for CPI optics.

On energy, Bloomberg reports OPEC+ starts adding 137k b/d in October; the first sliver of larger 2026 additions. Crude is already down roughly 12% YTD; more barrels tilt the balance to market share over price. That’s disinflationary at the margin, helpful to the CPI narrative if it persists.

This chart reinforces why even small quota changes matter. With Saudi Arabia holding nearly all of the group’s spare capacity, other members have little flexibility. That concentration means modest shifts can create outsized effects on market sentiment and inflation expectations.

Commodity CTA flows are mixed:

• Silver +2.4%, Gold +1.6%, Aluminium +1.0%

• Corn −1.4%, Sugar −0.9%, Nat Gas −0.3%

Metals strength aligns with a softer growth impulse and lower real rates; if CPI comes benign and long yields slip, the tailwind for XAU and XAG can extend.

Commodity CTA flows are mixed:

• Silver +2.4%, Gold +1.6%, Aluminium +1.0%

• Corn −1.4%, Sugar −0.9%, Nat Gas −0.3%

Metals strength aligns with a softer growth impulse and lower real rates; if CPI comes benign and long yields slip, the tailwind for XAU and XAG can extend.

📈 Index context

$SPY closed at all-time highs into Friday. Breadth is still uneven, yet momentum remains constructive while the 21-day MA holds. I’m carrying a tactical bias to fade strength into CPI where IV hasn’t fully expanded, then re-risk after the print only if core CPI sits at or below consensus and the 10-Year auction clears well.

💻 Microsoft cooling

Microsoft reported Azure back online after subsea cable cuts in the Red Sea disrupted EU–Asia traffic. Latency is easing, but it’s a reminder of global digital fragility.

The Momentum Score on my model has slid to 2 from 5 in August while price hovers near $500. Technically I’m watching $487 as first support, $505 as first resistance; above there, $517 retest opens. Below $480 would confirm trend fatigue.

For options, front-month IV is still relatively tame; I prefer calendars or diagonals to express a measured rebound if CPI cooperates.

💼 Earnings tickers with real edge

$ORCL (Tue after close): I’m focused on Oracle Cloud Infrastructure growth and backlog. Implied move sits in the high single digits. I’ll lean long only on a clean beat-and-raise plus OCI acceleration above 30% with margin discipline.

$GME (Tue after close): Options pricing implies a double-digit swing. I’m not allocating core capital; if anything, I’ll use defined-risk butterflies outside spot to capture tail breaks.

$ADBE (Thu after close): Watch Digital Media net new ARR and GenAI monetisation traction. First levels are $512 support and $550 resistance. I’ll engage only if guidance validates a re-acceleration and IV crush creates favourable post-earnings premium decay.

Kroger also features; consumer elasticity versus promotions will be the tell for food inflation.

🍏 Apple’s keynote risk

I’m not trading $AAPL directionally into the keynote. Instead, I’ll let the first 60 minutes shake out and assess whether ASP uplift or new AI features shift FY25 gross margin commentary. Above $235 I’ll consider call diagonals into year-end given index weight, but only if the curve doesn’t steepen materially after CPI.

🚗 Tesla: the flow signal

The options tape flagged $44M of net call buying in $TSLA today versus limited net puts; Friday also saw roughly $29M of net calls across the Mag 7. My net-drift tool shows persistent call premium while the underlying sat near $347.63.

I’m treating $344 to $346 as demand, $352 to $356 as supply. The 0.618 retrace from the prior rally aligns near $353; that’s the pivotal magnet. A daily close above $353 unlocks $360 then $373. On the downside, a close below $342 forces me to step back and wait for $335 volume-shelf support.

💰 My current long in $TSLA is up +$12,496 unrealised P&L at $349.40 vs $328.57 cost. This position is confirmation of my bullish bias, but I’ll scale into short-dated call spreads on strength and trim at $360. If CPI disappoints, I’ll rotate into 345–335 put verticals to hedge.

🎯 Where most traders may misallocate capital

Many will chase headline winners after Apple and CPI, or over-trade $GME gamma. I’m allocating attention to the intersection of macro and microstructure: Treasury auction tails, CPI relative to supercore, and how that bleeds into long-duration tech and metals. My edge is not the first reaction; it’s the second-order flow once rates set the tone.

🌍 Human and geopolitical thread

The week’s setup is a quiet lesson in systems: one cable cut in the Red Sea sends ripples through Azure traffic; an OPEC quota tweak nudges CPI expectations; a handset design choice sets advertising and app-store economics for years. Markets are just governance, logistics, and physics expressed as prices. I’m trading that chain, not the noise.

⚠️ Risks and invalidation

Hot CPI or a weak 10-Year auction would elevate real yields; that compresses multiples and punishes long-duration tech. ECB surprise or hawkish press conference would add to the pressure. A sharp risk-off move in crude from unexpected supply shocks could flip the inflation narrative.

For $TSLA, my invalidation sits on a daily close below $342. For $MSFT, a break and hold below $480 would invalidate my constructive bias. For index risk, a decisive $SPY close below the 21-day MA would force de-risking.

🛠 How I’m structuring trades

Core: light equity exposure in index leaders while IV expands into CPI.

Event: for $ORCL and $ADBE, I prefer post-print premium harvests; short strangles converted to iron condors if needed, or diagonals that buy the reset.

$TSLA: call spreads 350–360 or 350–373 for this fortnight when price is above $353; flip to 345–335 put verticals if the magnet fails.

$AAPL: accumulate Oct or Nov call diagonals only on strong margin commentary with curve stability. Sizing stays modest; I’ll scale and trim in thirds.

🚨 All eyes on CPI + Treasury auctions – this is the pivot for everything else 🚨

📋 Watchlist

$AAPL, $MSFT, $TSLA, $ORCL, $ADBE, $KR, $GME, $GLD, $SLV, $SPY, $QQQ

✅ Conclusion

I’m entering the week with patience and a playbook, not predictions. The combination of CPI, ECB, and heavy Treasury supply can reset the whole curve in a single session; that’s the real driver of multiples and the fuel behind options flow like we’re seeing in $TSLA. I’ll let the data lead, attack only where the odds widen, and defend capital everywhere else.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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