To The Moon

$SPDR Gold Shares(GLD)$ $VanEck Gold Miners ETF(GDX)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ 🕒 20 Oct 2025 🇳🇿 | VanEck Gold Miners ETF ($GDX) & SPDR Gold Shares ($GLD)

I’m tracking $GDX and $GLD as they carve out what could become one of the most powerful multi-year surges in modern markets. $GDX trades near $78.73 and $GLD around $389; every chart, flow, and macro signal still points higher.

📊 Technical Analysis: Decoding the Charts

I’m watching $GDX’s monthly inverse-hammer candle form above $78. If it closes here, it confirms a topping-path breakout, the same pattern that triggered 100 % plus runs from past cycle lows.

Fibonacci projections mark the path to $85 → $93.6 → $104 → $115.7 by 2027.

A retrace to the 0.786 Fib ($78.83) or $73–74 support zone would be my ideal reload region.

On the weekly and 4 H charts, Keltner and Bollinger bands are tightening, showing volatility compression before another continuation leg.

Momentum remains robust; RSI 73.5, ADX 46.9, and AroonUp > 70 confirm trend dominance and institutional momentum. $GDX’s 14-day average volume is up 46 % since April, confirming renewed fund inflows.

For $GLD, the 200-day MA ($315) hasn’t been breached since Nov 2023, that’s 23 months of uninterrupted strength. A daily bearish-engulfing candle suggests a healthy 2–3 % cool-off to $380–$385, but the structure stays parabolic.

🌍 Macro Backdrop: The Great Monetary Shift

The Morgan Stanley G3 bond-supply data shows sovereign issuance across the US, EU, and UK exploding over five years. Normally, that would lift long-end yields, yet they remain artificially flat.

Why? Treasury desks have swapped duration from long bonds into short notes, muting the term premium.

That’s engineered stability, not organic balance; and gold is calling the bluff.

Central banks, led by China and India, are buying aggressively; around 80 tonnes so far this year, while dollar reserves fall to decade lows. The rotation out of Treasuries and into hard assets is the foundation of this super-cycle.

Global ETF gold holdings now exceed 3,750 tonnes, their highest since 2020, while US M2 money supply has expanded 7.8 % YTD, reinforcing gold’s liquidity premium. The bond-market duration swap is creating a liquidity flush that distorts yield reality and accelerates gold’s credibility reset.

💡 Valuations Are Stretched to Breaking Point

Robert Shiller’s famous CAPE ratio is flashing again. Investors are paying nearly 40 × earnings, levels last seen during the 1999 dot-com bubble, eerily similar to today’s AI-fuelled equity mania.

When valuations hit these extremes, capital searches for stores of value. Gold’s surge isn’t irrational; it’s the market re-pricing risk back into reality.

Gold now leads all major assets with a +65 % YTD total return and 4.0 × Sharpe ratio (Goldman Sachs data). Even Bitcoin (+16 %), Nasdaq (+18 %), and S&P 500 (+14 %) lag.

This isn’t speculation; it’s a monetary transition in motion.

📰 Catalysts and Sentiment

We’ve entered the mania phase; viral clips show queues worldwide for physical gold. ETF inflows confirm it, with $GLD taking in $1.2 B in September and India’s gold ETFs now exceeding $10 B AUM.

CTA funds are now scaling into gold’s breakout phase, mechanically amplifying each up-leg as trend models chase momentum.

Institutional participation remains light; CFTC net longs ≈ 1.7 ×, meaning the smart money’s still early.

Analysts are catching up; Goldman Sachs $4,900/oz, HSBC $5,000, BofA $4,900–$5,000 by 2026.

Even with gold’s spike to $4,179/oz, we’re still early in the structural repricing of real assets.

⚖️ Black Monday 1987: The Lesson That Never Leaves Me

I was working for a stockbroker in Perth, Western Australia on this day in 1987. I still remember the phones ringing off the hook and the fear in every voice.

That day, the Dow crashed 22.6 % and the S&P 500 plunged 20.5 %, the worst single-day drop in history. Circuit breakers were born from that chaos.

Gold stood tall then. Thirty-eight years later, markets again feel over-leveraged and fragile. When everything shakes, gold doesn’t ask questions; it answers them.

🔮 Watchlist and Strategy

I’m watching:

• $GDX support $73–74 → resistance $85 / $93.6 / $104 / $115 (target double by 2027)

• $GLD support $380–385 → upside $400 / $425 (mid-2026 target)

• Macro triggers: Fed pivot in December, US-China trade headlines, long-end yield drift, Treasury auctions

• Options positioning: Long $GDX Dec 80 C and $GLD Nov 400 C; short interest in $GDX ≈ 2 %, leaving room for institutional inflows

🧭 My Take: Trading the Monetary Reset

I’m not chasing noise; I’m positioning for a global collateral repricing that’s already underway.

Gold isn’t moving out of fear; it’s repricing the true cost of money in a world where debt, issuance, and leverage have outpaced credibility.

I’m treating gold and $GDX as both offensive positioning and intelligent hedging; a structural play that protects while it compounds.

When others hedge reactively, I hedge proactively, using exposure that participates in the upside while insulating against systemic mispricing.

$GDX remains my high-beta leverage to that theme. I see every consolidation as a recalibration before the next structural advance.

I’m positioning through this market reckoning, not reacting to it. When liquidity distorts truth, gold restores it; and that reset is what separates traders from investors who recognise the cycle shift early.

In a world leveraged 40 × earnings, gold isn’t speculation; it’s valuation discipline priced in ounces, not multiples.

I’m staying long, hedged, and data-driven until the macro breaks the pattern.

You know what to do.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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