To The Moon

I've been watching Netflix $Netflix(NFLX)$   like a hawk since that post-earnings wobble, and honestly, the Brazil tax hit feels like classic market overreaction. Yes, Q3 profit missed and management trimmed guidance, but the sizable one-time charge related to a Brazilian tax dispute doesn't equal a broken business model — it's a lump-sum accounting hit. The core subscription engine still hums, the ad tier is accelerating, and password-sharing enforcement in Latin America is finally showing teeth. A pullback after a headline one-off is exactly the sort of situation that creates asymmetric risk/reward for long-term investors. 

Valuation is the real question: how low is low enough? NFLX now trades above $1,100 per share, and forward multiples have reset from the frothier levels we saw earlier this year. The stock is trading at a forward P/E in the mid-30s territory, which still isn't "cheap" absolutely, but it's materially cheaper than the peak euphoria. With a forward PEG that looks reasonable under some growth scenarios, the setup is attractive for a patient buyer who scales in — you're buying future cash flows and content optionality, not narrative noise. 

Technically, I'm watching the moving averages for confirmation. The 200-day is a live reference point and currently sits roughly around the low-$1,100s depending on the data source — that's an important level for me to see as a support zone before I start loading aggressively. If the market re-tests that 200-day level and macro sentiment is stable, I'd view that as a lower-risk addition point. Short-term, a grind sideways into the content calendar is plausible; long-term, content catalysts swing bigger than quarters. 

Stranger Things Season 5 in Q4 is the wildcard everyone's sleeping on. Netflix has a repeatable pattern where tent-pole releases juice paid adds and engagement; if ST5 delivers even a fraction of past tent-pole lift, it sets up a classic beat-and-raise Q4. Management has telegraphed a big content slate heading into the period — that's the catalyst I'm betting on to convert headlines into material subscriber and revenue upside. 

Execution risk remains: the Brazil fallout could linger, ad monetization might ramp slower than modeled, and content ROI is never guaranteed. My plan is asymmetric sizing: nibble at the current level, add on weakness toward the 200-day if it shows up, and be prepared to pause if guidance deteriorates further. Splits and liquidity theater don't change cash flows — Im buying the business, not the ticker. If ST5 and ad momentum line up, upside re-rating back toward prior multiples is plausible; if not, Ill treat any sideways quarter as a patient holding period. 

As a retail investor, I focus mainly on the US and Singapore markets, combining a mix of technical trading and long-term investing strategies. I enjoy analyzing charts, spotting patterns, and making calculated moves based on both market sentiment and fundamentals. While I'm not a professional, I treat my portfolio seriously and continue to learn and grow with each trade. If you're also navigating the markets and enjoy discussing stocks, options, or market trends, feel free to follow me. Let's learn and grow together as a community.

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