CRCL: Stablecoin Pioneer Pulls Back Toward $110–$135 Range

$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$

$117.86 (−7.18%): Post-IPO fever cools; stablecoin leader drifts toward $110–$140 digestion zone

Market Recap (as of Oct 31, 2025):

Circle Internet Group closed at $117.86, down 7.18% on the day with ~9.0M shares traded vs ~11.3M average, leaving the stock roughly 61% below its 52-week peak near $299 but still about +71% YTD.

The pullback continues the de-rating that began after Circle and early holders filed to sell 10M shares only two months after the IPO, raising dilution concerns and signalling heavy insider profit-taking after a 400%+ post-listing surge.

Recent earnings showed strong ~53% revenue growth but a sizable net loss (EPS ≈ −4.5), keeping trailing P/E in “at loss” territory, while Yahoo’s stats imply a forward P/E around 160x, versus the S&P 500 forward multiple near 23x, so the market is still pricing in very aggressive growth despite near-term volatility.

Consensus 12-month targets cluster around $165–$175, above today’s price but with a Hold-leaning stance as analysts wait for clearer profitability.

Technical Indicators Analysis:

Technically, CRCL is in a medium-term downtrend: price has slipped below the falling 20-day EMA (~$132) and 50-day EMA (~$138), and each bounce since October has failed near these moving averages.

Daily MACD remains below zero with a slightly negative histogram, while RSI (14) sits around 40, signaling weak momentum and a bearish bias rather than outright capitulation.

Volume on this latest drop is below its summer spike levels, suggesting a grinding distribution phase instead of panic selling. Combined volume + MACD + RSI point to a downward-tilted trading range for the next week, likely $110–$135, unless a macro or regulatory catalyst hits crypto-related names.

With price below both EMAs, a typical parabolic SAR setup would still flag a “sell-the-rally” regime, so trend followers may only flip constructive on a daily close back above $135–$140, opening room toward $150–$160 and, if sentiment improves, the $170 Street-target band.

On the downside, watch supports at $115 / $110 / $100; a break of $110 risks testing the psychological $100 handle and potentially the mid-$90s if secondary-offering and regulatory worries re-intensify.

Risk & Disclaimer: CRCL is a newly listed, high-beta crypto-linked fintech with extreme volatility and headline risk around regulation, secondary offerings, and earnings.

The above is technical commentary only, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security; please combine it with your own research, risk tolerance, and, if needed, professional financial advice.

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