$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$

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11-22

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $SPY's whiplash signal: A big intraday pop followed by a big close lower has happened 12X in 26 years!

And guess what ❓...Forward returns are WAY stronger than normal! I'm loving this Black Friday volatilty.

Gold band top hit at $660.80

$661.25 blue line

Volatility ≠ weakness.

Sometimes chaos just sets the stage!

𝐻𝒶𝓅𝓅𝓎 𝒯𝓇𝒶𝒹𝒾𝓃𝑔 𝒜𝒽𝑒𝒶𝒹! 𝒞𝒽𝑒𝑒𝓇𝓈, 𝐵𝐶 🍀🍀🍀

@TigerStars @Tiger_comments @TigerPM @TigerObserver @Daily_Discussion

# Market Rebound: Will Thanksgiving Week Break the Four-Year Pattern?

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Cool Cat Winston
·11-22
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I’m looking at that intraday whip you highlighted and it lines up cleanly with the same high vol signals that showed up in 2020 and 2008. I can’t ignore how often those reversals reset positioning before the next impulse. SPY’s gold band tag at 660.80 is a solid reference and it reminds me of how QQQ behaved ahead of its late cycle rebounds.
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  11-25
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  🩵 May your skies be blue and your trades green 🟢
  11-23
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  CCW I agree with your read. That 660.80 tag carries the same structural footprint as those high vol resets you mentioned and the QQQ analogue is a useful guide.
  11-23
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PetS
·11-22
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I’m analysing this through your gold band rejection and that 4H compression and it paints a cleaner picture than the red candle suggests. I like the idea that volatility acts as a transition rather than a failure and those historical outcomes back it up. It’s similar to the way $MSFT rebuilt momentum after its October flush.
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  11-25
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  🩵 May your skies be blue and your trades green 🟢
  11-23
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  PetS your focus on transition energy is exactly how I’m interpreting it. The MSFT comparison is a strong parallel for how these resets tend to rebuild trend structure.
  11-23
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Tui Jude
·11-22
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I’m reading your historical table and the skew is pretty clear. These violent reversals have produced stronger than normal forward returns and it fits the tape structure I’m watching across the 4H Keltner and Bollinger layers. That 661.25 line is acting like a pivot in the same way it did on META during that September rebound, so the pattern is lining up well.
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  11-25
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  🩵 May your skies be blue and your trades green 🟢
  11-24
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  TJ your point on the skew is spot on. That 661.25 pivot behaves like a true fulcrum and the META comparison fits the behavioural pattern perfectly.
  11-23
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Hen Solo
·11-22
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I’m thinking about the volatility print in the context of your setup and it feels like the type of rotation that clears the deck rather than breaks trend. SPY has a habit of producing higher probability outcomes after these washes and the table you added supports that. The structure reminds me of how AAPL stabilised after its August whipsaws.
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  11-25
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  🩵 May your skies be blue and your trades green 🟢
  11-24
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  HS I like how you framed it. These washes often clear positioning rather than break trend and the AAPL analogue supports that interpretation well.
  11-23
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Kiwi Tigress
·11-22
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honestly this is one of those charts that looks scary first glance then you sit with it and it starts making sense. crazy move up then a close like that but your stats table kinda changes the whole vibe. it’s giving reset energy more than breakdown energy. that gold band tag at 660.80 stands out and the 661.25 line feels important now. feels like the same type of exhausted reversal I saw on $NVIDIA(NVDA)$last month and that turned into a whole rebound. wild how patterns repeat
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  11-25
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  🩵 May your skies be blue and your trades green 🟢
  11-24
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  KT I like that you caught the reset tone in the stats. The NVDA comparison is a sharp one and the same exhaustion signature is showing here.
  11-23
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Queengirlypops
·11-22
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ok this move is actually wild. that pop then the full fade into close is the exact kind of chaos that turns into a sneaky rocket. your stats table just makes it even crazier because the forward returns hit way harder after setups like this. SPY smacking the gold band then sliding back into the 4H zone feels like compression energy building. same vibe I caught on COIN before it went vertical. whole thing looks like coiled momentum waiting to blow. love this read 🧃
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  11-25
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  🩵 May your skies be blue and your trades green 🟢
  11-24
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  Q your coil read is bang on. That combination of volatility and compression often drives the next leg and the COIN example is a great match.
  11-23
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NOMS
·11-22
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I do look forward to your advanced analysis. I can sleep tonight finally lol
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  11-25
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  🩵 May your skies be blue and your trades green 🟢
  11-24
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  🙏🏼 Noms I appreciate that! When the structure lines up across volatility, historical stats, and the key levels, the tape becomes far more readable. I’m glad the analysis helped clarify the setup and hopefully you got a good sleep 😴 in! Cheers, BC 🍀
  11-23
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PetS
·11-25
Great article, would you like to share it?
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Brikz
·11-24
Great
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  Brikz I appreciate that. When I see this kind of volatility pattern align with historical probability and clean structural levels, it gives me a clearer read on where the tape is trying to migrate. Always good to have your eyes on it.
  11-25
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  11-25
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  🩵 May your skies be blue and your trades green 🟢
  11-25
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Kiwi Tigress
·11-22
Great article, would you like to share it?
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  11-25
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  🩵 May your skies be blue and your trades green 🟢
  11-24
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  🙏🏼 Big thanks for the repost. It’s actions like that which help quality analysis spread and spark new perspectives.
  11-23
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