From my perspective, the approval of oral Wegovy is the most important positive catalyst Novo Nordisk has seen this year. A pill form fundamentally lowers the barrier to adoption versus injections, especially for primary care patients and long-term weight management. The market's 7% reaction makes sense to me, because this isn't just a line extension—it meaningfully expands the addressable market and strengthens Novo's positioning in the obesity franchise.
That said, I also understand why NVO is still down 38% year to date while Eli Lilly keeps making new highs. Lilly has clearly won the narrative this year, with faster innovation cycles, stronger momentum in data readouts, and more consistent execution. Novo's drawdown reflects disappointment rather than collapse—its core GLP-1 economics remain intact, but investor confidence needed a reset, and oral Wegovy helps do exactly that.
I see this approval as a potential turning point, not an instant reversal. The key for me is execution in 2026: manufacturing scale, reimbursement, and real-world adherence data will determine whether oral Wegovy becomes a mass-market product or just a niche alternative. If Novo can show strong uptake in the U.S. early in the launch, sentiment could shift quickly, especially given how under-owned the stock has become after this year's selloff.
On valuation, I now find NVO far more compelling than it was earlier this year. After a 38% decline, much of the bad news is already priced in, while the upside optionality from oral therapy is not fully reflected. Compared with LLY $Eli Lilly(LLY)$
Looking into 2026, I think a major breakout is possible, but it won't be automatic. Novo needs to prove it can regain innovation leadership and convert scientific strength into commercial momentum. If oral Wegovy gains traction and pipeline updates reinforce confidence, I believe NVO $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$
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