Shyon
12-26 11:27

If I have to choose the most likely 2026 outcome, I lean toward “nothing dramatic happens.” Markets have adapted to repeated shocks, and while AI should lift productivity, it’s unlikely to trigger either a 1999-style boom or a sudden collapse. Growth is more likely to stay decent but uneven, leading to gradual expectation resets.

For equities, I expect modest new highs rather than a melt-up or crash. Valuations are high, but earnings, liquidity, and buybacks still provide support. A 50% drop in Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ seems unlikely without a clear earnings shock; volatility and rotation feel like the more realistic path.

On policy, the main risk is Fed hesitation, not extreme easing or hikes. Inflation may cool but remain sticky enough to cause pauses and mixed signals. Gold appears closer to consolidation than another explosive rally, making 2026 a year of noisy stability rather than a major turning point.

@Tiger_comments @TigerStars

# 2026: Will “Nothing Happen,” or Will Everything Be Repriced?

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  • zingie
    ·12-26 14:11
    Fair take! 2026 could be a grind with steady gains and wobbles. Watch those rotations closely. [开心]
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