To The Moon

Who is more likely to 10X first?

SpaceX

$1.5T ➡️ $15T

or

Rocket Lab $RKLB

$40B ➡️ $400B

🧩 Clearing the emotional noise before the analysis begins

Yes, SpaceX is the most advanced company in the space industry today. That dominance is precisely why $RKLB trades at roughly 3% of SpaceX’s valuation.

Yes, Elon Musk is a generational innovator who consistently pushes the boundaries of what is technologically possible.

Yes, the eventual SpaceX ticker will likely be clever, meme-able, and endlessly entertaining inside a portfolio.

And yes, both companies are extremely expensive. $RKLB trades near a 75x price-to-sales multiple. SpaceX is closer to 100x. In a changing macro regime, valuation compression is a shared risk, not a differentiator.

🧮 Why this is a probability exercise, not a greatness contest

The Law of Large Numbers matters. As companies grow larger, sustaining extreme percentage growth becomes mathematically harder. Space may represent an undefined TAM with near-limitless long-term opportunity, but even infinite opportunity does not mean one company can realistically dominate, prioritise, and monetise everything at once.

If I assume a healthy long-term valuation of 10x sales at a future 10X market cap, the maths becomes revealing.

$RKLB at $400B would require roughly $40B in annual revenue. For context, Boeing generates around $75B a year. That scale is ambitious, but firmly within historical precedent for a high-end aerospace and defence manufacturer.

SpaceX at $15T would require roughly $1.5T in annual revenue. That would mean generating more revenue than Walmart and Amazon combined. Not market cap. Revenue. That is not execution risk. That is a scale problem humanity has never solved before.

🎯 The Elon premium and the asymmetry problem

The Elon premium is already heavily embedded in SpaceX’s $1.5T valuation. To 10X from here, SpaceX does not merely need to succeed, it needs to dominate industries that do not yet exist, at a scale no company has ever achieved.

There is also a rising-tide effect at play. As the commercial space economy expands, multiple winners will emerge. Historically, smaller, higher-beta operators capture disproportionate upside during expansion cycles, provided they continue to execute. $RKLB fits that asymmetry far more cleanly than a trillion-dollar incumbent.

⚖️ Final framing

Could I be wrong? Absolutely. SpaceX may redefine what is possible at a civilisational level.

But when I strip emotion out and focus on probability, arithmetic, and historical analogues, I’m not betting on the company that needs to bend the laws of mathematics. I’m betting on the one that needs to scale into them.

If I had to choose one, $RKLB is my bet.

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