To The Moon

$Duolingo, Inc.(DUOL)$ $Strategy(MSTR)$  $MARA Holdings(MARA)$  When 16% to 20% of float is short across a hated basket while January liquidity is thin, price stops trading on stories and starts trading on gamma.

$DUOL is -42% in 2025 with 18% SI, yet +11.1% in the first five sessions of 2026.

$MSTR -43%, 16% SI, +10.8%.

$MARA -44%, 18% SI, +10.8%.

$QUBT -39%, 20% SI, +16.4%.

That is a classic early-year positioning shock. High SI + hated coming into year = early 2026 fuel ⛽️

$DUOL is now trading near $162, sitting inside the lower Keltner and Bollinger bands on the daily, with the 13, 21 and 55 EMAs compressing above price. On the weekly, price is pinned to the rising 55-week EMA in the $155 to $170 demand zone, the same base that launched the 2023–2024 run. This is volatility compression on a structural floor, not trend continuation lower.

Fundamentals now defend that level. Free cash flow has grown 25× since 2020 to ~$355M LTM, versus only ~$48M the last time DUOL traded here in 2022. Forward FCF is ~$382M for 2025E, ~$498M for 2026E and >$730M by 2028E, pushing forward FCF yield above 5%, the highest in the company’s history and the lowest P to FCF it has ever traded.

Headline P/E is ~19.2×, but stripping the $222.7M one-time tax benefit lifts true P/E to ~45.8×, keeping implied volatility and dealer gamma elevated. With 18% SI, any push through the $175 to $190 liquidity band forces vanna and gamma hedging, while downside is increasingly cushioned by real cash generation.

This is what a hated growth stock looks like when cash flow flips the regime.

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