To The Moon

As of late December 2025, Bitcoin continues to experience significant volatility, briefly touching the $90,000 mark before retreating as the market struggles to reclaim the momentum seen during its $126,000 peak in October 2025. (see below)

As of 14 Jan 2026 - Asia time 5:30pm

The year-end slump, fueled by (a) a massive liquidation of leveraged positions and (b) cooling retail interest, has erased most of the gains prompted by earlier political optimism.

The current $95,123 level represents a "full-circle" retracement, testing the psychological support zones established during the March–May 2025 consolidation period.

Despite cooling sentiment, institutional commitment remains visible through major treasury acquisitions by firms like Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR), even as some companies face pressure from the high cost of servicing debt used to fund these holdings.

The Michael Saylor-Strategy is another “high risk investment” story to be shared in another space & time.

For now, analysts at Needham & Company LLC have significantly lowered their price targets on the "Big Two" crypto-linked stocks, Coinbase and Robinhood, citing a "risk-off" transition following the volatile Q4 2025 liquidations.

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ - 1 of 2 Stocks.

Founded by Brian Armstrong & Fred Ehrsam in 2012, COIN became a public company in 2021 with a direct listing that initially valued the firm at $86 billion.

COIN, operates digital asset exchange platforms in more than 100 countries across the world.

In May 2025, it achieved a historic milestone by joining the S&P 500 index, effectively cementing digital assets as a permanent fixture in institutional portfolios.

Currently, the exchange:

• Manages over $245 billion in institutional assets under custody.

• Serves as primary custodian for majority of US spot Bitcoin ETFs.

It is one of Cathie Wood's favorite stocks.

The Wood Factor and Market Correction.

Veteran investor Cathie Wood continues to actively trade COIN through ARK Invest. (see below)

It remains as the 2nd-largest investment in her main fund, $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$., commanding a 12.1% weightage.

According to recent filings, Wood maintains a $580 million position in COIN, representing roughly 3.77% of her total aggregate portfolio. (see above)

However, COIN’s stock price has dipped roughly -1.05% 1Y, underperforming the broader Nasdaq 100, primarily due to the "October Crash". (see below)

As of 13 Jan 2026

Market Context - The 10 Oct 2025 single-day event saw a staggering $19 billion in leveraged positions vapourized within 24 hours, triggered by escalating Middle Eastern tensions and a -14% flash-crash in BTC (to $104,782).

The Valuation Cut.

In response to these tightening conditions, Needham analysts have lowered COIN price target by -25%.

On 29 Dec 2025, the firm lowered its target to $290 from $400. Despite the cut, they maintain a "Buy" rating, underpinned by COIN’s industry-leading 85.8% gross profit margins.

Other financial analysts have also updated their COIN’s ratings:

• $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ -

  Maintained 'Overweight' on 31 Oct 2025, adjusting price target slightly from $404 to $399.

• $Deutsche Bank AG(DB)$ -

  On 17 Dec 2025, bank analyst, Benjamin Goy issued a 'Buy' with a $340 target, viewing current sell-off as an overreaction.

• Goldman Sachs: In a report dated 18 Dec 2025, GS analysts initiated a 'Neutral' rating with a price target of $294, citing regulatory uncertainty.

Overall market position: As of the market close on Wed 31 Dec 2025, COIN finished at $226.14, marking a sharp -39.70% decline from its 52-week high of $375. So far in 2026, the stock managed to recover +9.6%.

Technical Analysis.

Will COIN continue to slide or recover, a quick look at the stock’s technical indicators hopefully could provide some clues.

As of 13 Jan 2026

• COIN’s overall momentum is “bearish”.

• Based on 13 Jan 2026’s closing price of $252.69, COIN is above its moving averages (MA) of 20-day ($242.99), but still well below its (b) 50-day ($265.49), and (c) 200-day ($286.23).

• With the 200-day SMA crossing the 50-day SMA from the bottom up, the “golden cross” signals an impending bullish momentum in the horizon ?

• COIN’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 50.61, signals the stock is neither oversold nor overbought.

• With the MACD line (-5.90) above the signal line (-8.67), with a positive divergence (histogram value) of 2.77 - it is generally considered a bullish signal, indicating that short-term momentum is improving relative to the recent past.

• In terms of support and resistant prices, COIN’s 1-year movement shows a clear rejection at the $375-$425 range in H2 2025.

• It is testing a critical support floor near $247, which was the ‘50% retracement from 4 week High/Low’.

Last but not least, COIN’s 1-year formation is best described as a broadening top that turned into a bearish breakdown.

Does the latest technical indicators point to an inflection point for the stock to stage a recovery?

$Robinhood(HOOD)$ - 2 of 2 Stocks.

Current caution extends beyond exchanges (eg. COIN) as Needham analysts predict similar drop for the retail sector.

On Mon, 29 Dec 2025, in a note issued to investors, they have also lowered their price target on HOOD, from $145 to $135.

HOOD has successfully evolved from a simple e-trading app into a full-service neo-bank, offering crypto, tokenized stocks, going public in 2021 and finally, joining the S&P 500 in September 2025.

Cathie Wood also holds a significant stake here across ARKW, ARKF, and ARKK.

Interestingly, her 502 million shares (valued at $603 million) now carry a higher nominal dollar value than her COIN holdings.

In true Ms Wood style, she has been actively trading HOOD as well. (see below)

While HOOD is up an impressive +187.93% 1Y, driven by the new "Robinhood Gold" credit card and the "Cortex" AI assistant, it has retreated -21.13% since the 10 Oct 2025 crash. (see below)

As of 13 Jan 2026

This correction reflects concerns over "transaction-based revenue fatigue" as retail volumes cooled.

Overall. when it comes to HOOD, firms remain bullish:

• On 12 Dec 2025, Barclays analysts issued an "Overweight" rating and raised HOOD’s price target from $168 to $171.

• On 17 Dec 2025, Truist Financial analysts similarly issued a "Buy" rating and a price target of $155.

Overall market position: HOOD currently trades at a Price-to-Tangible Book (P/TB) ratio of 17.5x. This represents a massive premium over the 3.2x industry average, reflecting the market's "tech-multiple" treatment of the stock rather than a traditional brokerage valuation.

Technical Analysis.

Robinhood’s chart is structurally healthier but technically "tired." (see below)

As of 13 Jan 2026

• Based on 13 Jan 2026’s closing price of $120.24, HOOD is still below its moving averages (MA) of 50-day MA ($124.13), showing short-term downtrend momentum.

• With HOOD above its (a) 20-day MA ($118.05) and (b) 200-day MA ($99.23), a classic bullish long‑term structure combined persists.

• HOOD’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46.54 suggests a neutral range that indicates the stock is neither overbought nor oversold.

• With the MACD line (-2.20) is attempting to cross above the signal line (-2.30) as the divergence is a marginal positive value, close to zero.

• A cross above the signal line is a classic bullish signal, often used as a trigger for a potential buying opportunity.

• In terms of support and resistant prices, primary level is $118 and $121.78, respectively. Their secondary level readings are $117.38 and $123.10.

Despite an impressive 1Y gain, HOOD has formed a "double top" near $153, a classic reversal pattern.

It is oscillating near its 50-day SMA ($124.13), which is acting as a magnetic pivot point.

Formation: Following a massive rally earlier in the year, HOOD is currently characterized by a positive tilted that might just about to become persistent, if the technical indicators are ‘accurate’.

Q4 2025 - Earnings Forecasts.

As December 2025 is officially over, US earnings season is coming back into focus.

In light of that, a comparison of COIN and HOOD’s earnings estimates is both timely and relevant.

The following table compares the key financial metrics for the Q4 2025, reflecting the impact of the $19 billion liquidation event and the subsequent price target revisions by financial institutions.

• EPS: While COIN’s $0.99 estimate reflects high-margin institutional fees, HOOD’s $0.55 represents a more stable earnings base derived from diversified retail subscriptions.

• Total revenue: COIN leads with $1.85 billion due to its dominance in crypto custody, whereas HOOD’s $1.18 billion leans heavily on its successful expansion into the high-yield "Gold" credit and savings market.

• Trading volume: The massive $410 billion projection for COIN is anchored by spot Bitcoin ETF custodial roles, while HOOD’s $72 billion is driven by high-frequency retail options and "24/7" equity trading.

• Active user: HOOD’s massive scale of 26.8 million accounts highlights its "everything app" appeal. In contrast, COIN’s 10.5 million specialized users who generate significantly higher revenue per individual.

• Analyst rating : Consensus remains a "Buy" for the 2 stocks. Yet, analysts favour HOOD for its lower “Beta” volatility and COIN for its massive upside potential once US’s CLARITY Act is enacted in 2026.

The “Better” Buy.

Choosing between COIN and HOOD at the start of 2026, depends on whether investor value a pure-play crypto catalyst or a diversified fintech resilience.

Case for HOOD: The Ecosystem Play

HOOD will be the preferred choice for investors seeking stability & diversification.

While its technicals are currently "tired" following a massive rally, its strength lies in its evolution into a "Super App."

• Revenue Resilience: Unlike pure exchanges, HOOD’s diversified stream from equities, "Gold" credit services, and AI tools cushions it against crypto-specific liquidations.

• Retail Scale: With a significantly larger user base, HOOD offers lower volatility (Beta) and acts as a broad-based bet on the future of retail finance rather than just digital asset prices.

Case for COIN: The Institutional Gateway

COIN remains the high-conviction play for aggressive growth & regulatory upside.

Despite the recent -35% drawdown from yearly highs, it offers a "deep value" entry point for those betting on structural shifts.

Case for COIN.

COIN is the high-conviction "Alpha" play. Despite the -28% drawdown, it offers a "deep value" entry for those eyeing 2026.

• Regulatory Alpha: The primary catalyst is the 2026 CLARITY Act, that is expected to provide the legal framework for massive US pension fund inflows. COIN is uniquely positioned to capture the influx of institutional capital, that HOOD’s retail-centric model cannot.

• Infrastructure Dominance: Beyond trading fees and massive custodial role, COIN’s Layer-2 network (Base) provides a high-margin "software-as-a-service" (Saas) revenue stream that the market has yet to fully price in. It could lead to significant EPS surprises if the market recovers.

I am personally prioritizing HOOD due to its superior ecosystem, diversification and resilient technical structure. Do you have yours to compare notes with ?

Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks.

Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks.

• US Jobs Reports: NVDA's Breakout Catalyst ?

• JPM Soars To $350 with Q4 Earning's Catalyst ?

• US Market Rally & Fall on Trump Tariffs' Verdict ?

• Do you think COIN is a better buy than HOOD ’?

• Do you think HOOD will outshine COIN as it is not dependent on cryptocurrencies only?

If you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️ Repost and share the insights ?

Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post. Thank you.

@Daily_Discussion

@TigerPM

@TigerStars

@Tiger_SG

@TigerEvents