MP Materials: $100 Target, Back in Sight ?
The unfolding geopolitical drama involving Iran, the United States, and China is rapidly converging into a perfect storm for global trade and critical mineral markets.
The current trajectory suggests a return to the high-stakes "tariff diplomacy" that defined the previous decade, but with significantly more volatile ingredients.
The Iranian Spark
The narrative begins with a domestic crisis in Iran that has spiraled into an international flashpoint.
Severe economic distress—characterized by (a) plummeting rial and (b) runaway inflation—triggered mass protests across major Iranian cities.
What started as frustration over fuel subsidies and food prices quickly evolved into a broad-ranging revolt against the clerical leadership.
It did not help that Trump has moved to fan these flames.
By utilizing social media to directly encourage Iranian youths to "keep protesting" and promising that "help is on its way," the administration has effectively signaled support for regime change.
This rhetoric was further amplified by public speculation regarding potential military action—including the prospect of a "Maduro-style" operation—effectively signaling to the Iranian government that US is prepared to wage war to protect the uprising.
Weaponizing the Trade Lever
True to form, the Trump administration’s ultimate weapon is not just military, but fiscal.
Turning his attention to Iran's lifeblood, the US President has announced on 12 Jan 2026 - a "final & conclusive" 25% tariff on any country doing business with the Islamic Republic. In his social media post, he described the order as "final & conclusive," though specific details of its implementation and legal authority remain under scrutiny and fuzzy (as usual, what’s new).
This move is a strategic maneuver designed to isolate Tehran by punishing its most significant economic allies — chief among them, China.
As of late 2025, China remained Iran's largest trade partner, with billions in oil imports and industrial exchange.
By imposing this new levy, US is directly stressing an already fragile trade relationship with Beijing.
The latest tariff threat essentially demands that China choose between its Middle Eastern energy interests and its access to the American consumer market.
The Rare Earth Pendulum
The potential for a "Rare Earth War" has now re-emerged as a likely retaliatory path for Beijing.
In a hypothetical but highly plausible escalation, China could once again weaponize its dominance over rare earth elements (REEs).
China’s REE Exports
Interestingly, data from 2025 shows that China actually increased its REE exports to a decade-high of over 62,000 metric tons, a gesture that many saw as a temporary "thaw" or an attempt to maintain market share while global demand for EVs and defense tech surged.
With the latest US levies against Iran's trading partners threaten to snap this delicate supply chain link.
If history is any guide, China’s typical response to aggressive US trade policy is to restrict the export of these critical minerals—vital for everything from F-35 fighter jets to renewable energy magnets.
The MP Materials Correlation
The market response to these tensions is most visible in the stock price of $MP Materials Corp.(MP)$, US leading rare earth producer.
Looking at the past year, a clear inverse relationship has emerged:
Trump's actions affect MP Materials stock prices
The Drift Lower:
Throughout late 2024 and mid-2025, as China eased supply and increased exports, the "scarcity premium" for domestic REEs evaporated.
MP’s stock price drifted lower as the market perceived a more stable, albeit China-dependent, global supply.
The Swing Back:
As the Trump administration ramped up rhetoric and tariff threats in late 2025 and early 2026, the pendulum swung. (see above)
Investors, anticipating a Chinese export ban, began piling back into MP as the "national security" hedge.
The stock has recently seen a sharp recovery, climbing from its 52-week lows toward the $60–$70 range as the risk of a supply chain breakage becomes tangible again.
Technical Analysis.
A quick dive into MP’s past 12 months stock price movement should shed some lights as where this stock will be heading in the near to mid term.
As of 14 Jan 2026
Moving Averages (MA)
MP’s moving averages suggests a bullish recovery following the deep correction in late 2025.
20-Day SMA :
MP is currently trading above its 20-day average ($56.92).
This indicates strong short-term momentum as the market reacts to the news regarding Venezuelan possessing significant geological potential for rare earth elements (REEs) and other mineral assets.
50-Day SMA :
MP has successfully reclaimed its 50-day line ($57.98).
For much of 2025 - November & December, the price sat below this level, but the January breakout has turned this former resistance into a support floor.
200-Day SMA:
The stock remains comfortably above the 200-day average ($51.24).
This long-term trend line acted as the "ultimate support" during the December dip.
As long as MP stays above $51, the primary long-term trend remains bullish.
MACD:
The MACD is currently in a recovery phase.
In October 2025, the stock price dropped from its highest point of $100.
At the same time, a "death cross" happened - a technical sign that shows a stock is losing strength.
The MACD line (1.96) has recently crossed back above the signal line (0.25).
The histogram (divergence 1.72) is expanding in green territory, that confirms that the buying pressure is stronger than the selling pressure.
RSI:
Coming in at 68.04, MP is still not overbought yet but closed to it.
Formation:
MP’s one-year movement resembles a complex base construction.
Specifically, it is forming a W-Pattern (double bottom) with 1st low in early November 2025 and the 2nd deeper low in late December. (see above)
The "W" formation is often more powerful than a cup and handle formation.
The "middle peak" of the W is around $75.
If MP “breaks & holds” above $75 on high trading volume, it signals a technical "breakout" that could lead back toward the triple-digit range.
My viewpoints: (mine only)
The world currently finds itself in a feedback loop where Iranian civil unrest provides the pretext for US tariffs, which in turn could re-triggers Chinese mineral protectionism.
As the "Made in America" supply chain once again becomes a matter of ‘urgent survival’ rather than just policy, MP stands as the primary beneficiary of this geopolitical friction.
I wonder with the trade pendulum now swinging violently toward protectionism and supply chain "de-risking" back at the top of the global agenda, is this the opportune moment for investors to buy into the MP story before the supply of rare earths truly goes dark?
I have no issues with MP heading back to $100 or more. In fact, I welcome it as an investor and having held onto my MP stocks for the longest time - its payback time ya !
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Do you think traders were able to identify the MP’s uptrend early on’?
Do you think the Trump administration is “repeating” its disruptive & combative behaviour again - just like it did last year in early April 2025 on Liberation Day ?
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