To The Moon

Last week, the upward momentum in precious metals ignored clear overbought signals on both daily and weekly timeframes. Gold and silver kept hitting fresh all-time highs, with silver firmly breaking above $ 100.

This week, gold $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ has already climbed past the 5,000 mark, potentially opening the door to even more explosive gains.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ is teetering on the edge of a major long-term trendline breakdown. If current support fails, the dollar could face a depreciation of 10% or more.

On the news front, last week should have been dominated by easing geopolitical tensions—but investors weren’t buying it.

Notably, the long-standing “three-horse race” narrative—once a reliable market framework for years—has now clearly broken down over the past quarter.

Cryptocurrencies $iShares Bitcoin Trust(IBIT)$ , having fallen decisively out of sync, have lost all credibility as a mainstream asset; their market share and media attention have been fully absorbed by precious metals $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ $Silver - main 2603(SImain)$ $Freeport-McMoRan(FCX)$ . U.S. equities remain elevated amid skepticism, but they no longer serve as the steady anchor they once were.

We believe this shift signals more than just a change in market leadership—it implies a new set of reference points is emerging, potentially setting the stage for a major move ahead.

Compounding this, rising domestic friction in the U.S., combined with two critical upcoming inflection points—the Fed chair transition and the 2026 midterm elections—could unleash significant volatility.

Back to the market: the U.S. Dollar Index $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ is now our primary focus, as its direction dictates most non-U.S. currency moves and signals investor sentiment toward U.S. dollar-denominated assets.

On the monthly chart, the long-term support level that has held since the 2011 European debt crisis is now under its second major test. Although the previous bearish attempt failed, the structure looks increasingly fragile—and a breakdown appears inevitable.

If the 97/96.2 support zone is decisively breached, there’s virtually no meaningful support until the 88–90 range.

The key question now isn’t whether it will break—but when, and what catalyst will trigger it.

Moreover, as noted above, a dollar collapse wouldn’t be confined to the foreign exchange market—it could also trigger risks across U.S. Treasuries and equities, signaling a broader shake-up of dollar hegemony and dollar-denominated assets. $PP CNUSDPROP(03001)$ $GX ASUSD BOND(03075)$

Several countries and regions recently in friction with the U.S. have already signaled or begun actively selling U.S. Treasury bonds.

While long-end yields remain within a reasonable range for now, the likelihood of breaking out of this year’s large triangle consolidation pattern is high.

Rising bond yields would severely constrain both Trump and the new Fed Chair’s ability to manage interest rates—indirectly threatening overall financial market stability.

At this highly sensitive juncture—where a single move can trigger systemic ripple effects—we believe both political and economic dynamics are approaching a critical inflection point. Once the dollar embarks on a sustained bearish path, many previously reliable investment and trading strategies may no longer hold, requiring proactive preparation and adaptation.

On strategy: our existing long position in EUR/USD $EUROPEAN LITHIUM LTD(EUR.AU)$ $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ can now have its stop-loss adjusted to the entry level of 1.1615 after clear upward movement, locking in a risk-free position while keeping the original target unchanged.

Regarding cryptocurrencies, we had planned to sell into strength, but the market never offered an ideal entry. Following last week’s sharp selloff, the outlook has turned weak—either drifting sideways in a downtrend or poised for renewed downside. Accordingly, we adjust our short setup:

Place a limit sell order on Ethereum at 3,141, with a stop-loss above 3,461 and a target at 2,200.
If price first breaks below the recent low of 2,627, cancel the order entirely—as this would confirm further downward momentum.