After the violent drop-and-rebound we just saw, I think gold is more likely to digest gains rather than trend hard in one direction into Friday’s close. The market feels nervous rather than confident, which usually leads to choppy, range-bound trading.
The recent move looks driven more by forced position unwinds, margin pressure, and headline risk than fresh conviction buying. While geopolitical tension and Fed uncertainty still support gold structurally, the sharp rebound above $5,000 likely pulled forward short-term demand and limits immediate upside.
In this environment, I expect large intraday swings but a relatively contained weekly close, with $5,000 as key resistance and $4,800 as near-term support. Longer term I remain constructive on gold, but in the short term, consolidation makes more sense than another breakout.
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