To The Moon

📝Foreword: Mr. Liu@胖胖加油 is a veteran investor active in the capital markets. Formerly with a brokerage firm, he now works at a Private Equity (PE) firm based in Shanghai and is around 40 years old. On the Tiger platform, he has already achieved over $1 million in earnings. 💰

From his first exposure to the market in his teens to making Hong Kong and US stocks his core battlegrounds, he has consistently done one thing: Slowly turning insights into compounding returns that can navigate through cycles. 🔄

For him, investing is not a "side hustle," but decades of continuous cognitive training. He focuses on finding ignored value within cycles and maintaining restraint amidst volatility.

From "Random Betting" to Systematization: Investing is the Long-term Monetization of Insights🧠

Mr. Liu@胖胖加油 started investing very early, but he does not shy away from his chaotic early phase.

He truly began to think systematically about investing around 2008–2009, when he started exploring the Hong Kong market; he formally entered the US market later, around 2018–2019.

In his view, investment and career are not parallel lines.💎

Investing is essentially the "monetization of insights."💎

When you start investing seriously, you are forced to understand changes in politics, economics, and social structures. These insights will invariably influence your career choices and life decisions. Therefore, he does not believe work and investing can be completely separated—they shape each other over the long term.

Precious Metals: A Long-term Play Starting from an "Information Gap" 🪙

Starting in 2020, Mr. Liu poured significant research energy into minerals and precious metals, gradually building a heavy position. In his current portfolio structure, precious metals remain a core asset. He mentioned that Lingbao Gold is one of his most representative high-conviction holdings— Building a position starting from just over 1 dollar.🚀

The logic behind it wasn't complex, but it required extreme "patience."

• The company's fundamentals were bottoming out and rebounding.⏳

• Gold itself had a long-term upward macro trend.📈

• The overall valuation at the time was extremely low. The convergence of these three factors formed the most important foundation for a long-term winner.🌍

When the market hadn't really paid attention to gold mining stocks yet, I focused more on the supply-demand structure and long-term trends, rather than short-term price fluctuations.

Don't Buy " $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ Sellers," Buy "Gold Diggers."

In selecting gold stocks, Mr. Liu deliberately avoided retailers like Laopu Gold or Chow Tai Fook, which have stronger consumer attributes. The reason is clear:

• Retail gold is largely a consumer narrative.🛍️

• Mining gold is directly anchored to macro supply-demand and pricing power. 🏗️

He focuses more on upstream resources and is no stranger to companies like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold, having intervened in $Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899)$ as early as 2018. In his view, the current valuations of these leaders are not high, which suggests that the entire gold industry has not yet been truly "fully priced" by the market.🔍

Tech: Don't Chase the Hottest, Turn to "Imminent Landings." 🚗

Compared to his long-term allocation in precious metals, the tech sector makes up a smaller portion of Mr. Liu’s portfolio, leaning more towards trend following and tactical participation. He does not deny the revolutionary significance of AI but frankly states that the current AI sector is relatively crowded.🤖

Therefore, he focuses more attention on the autonomous driving supply chain:

• $HORIZONROBOT-W(09660)$

• $BLACK SESAME(02533)$

• $PONY-W(02026)$

In his view, these companies possess a clear commercialization path within the next one to two years, rather than remaining at the concept stage.

The real opportunities often lie not in the stories already told repeatedly, but in places about to materialize that haven't been fully priced in yet.✨

Survival Rules in High-Volatility Markets: Thesis Stop-Loss, Not Price Stop-Loss.🛡️

The Hong Kong market is a high-volatility offshore market, and Mr. Liu is very clear-eyed about this. His coping mechanism is not staring at price-based stop-losses, but adhering to thesis-based stop-losses:

• If the original investment thesis no longer holds, exit.

• As long as the thesis remains valid, even if volatility is severe, do not easily get swayed by sentiment. A painful loss on Yurun Food in his early years made him deeply realize: Fundamental research and risk control always come before returns.⚠️

On Cycles, Bubbles, and the Future.🔮

Regarding whether there is a bubble in AI, Mr. Liu’s attitude is relatively restrained:

• New technologies are always accompanied by bubbles.🫧

• The key is not whether there is a bubble, but what remains after the bubble bursts. Regarding Chinese assets in 2026, his judgment is: Policy support is clear, but the global environment is highly uncertain. One cannot use static valuation thinking to make major long-term decisions. Maintaining caution at the market level while remaining flexible at the individual stock level is his preferred state.

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Conclusion🔚

Looking back at Mr. Liu’s investment path, it is difficult to simply summarize it as "aggressive" or "conservative." He is more like an investor walking through cycles over the long term— Staying calm when sentiment is hottest, positioning early when no one is interested, and slowly transforming the information gap into the compounding of time.🕰️

As he said in the interview:

Find joy in investing, rather than just staring at making money.😊

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